opec trimming its demand forecast for this year and next. we will do a look on the outlook for crude, the geopolitical tensions but the softer demand and how that's playing into the world's energy markets. shares in a german defense contractor have soared benefiting from increased spending. we are speaking to the firm's chief executive at 6:40 a.m., just under 30 minutes. stay with us for that interview. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: welcome back. happy tuesday. oil is slipping after a five-day advance with a possible escalation in the middle east can't like offset -- middle east conflict offset by weakening demand. $81.72 after rising by almost a percent -- almost 8%. let's bring in day in -- in dan . we have been hearing about the warnings that retaliation for moran could come -- from iran could come soon. how is that playing into the pricing around oil? >> we have seen a roller coaster in terms of speculative interest when it comes to oil. a week or two ago, speculators were selling out contracts in the lowest net longs going back for years b

as we roll the clock forward into 2025, we see opec growing supply and normal opec growing supply andemand is growing, but slower than in previous years. we suspect that next year oil inventories will build at a rate of 500,000 to 1 million barrels a day. the market will be in sur pplus. we don't see prices lower than the 70s. >> okay. fascinating look. we will keep watching it. martin, thank you for the conversation. we appreciate it. martin ratz at morgan stanley with the latest on opec and the iea. >>> stay with us on the other side of the break, republican presidential nominee donald trump sitting down for a wide ranging nvcoersation with elon musk hampered by glitches and technical errors. we'll bring you that in two minute. what is cirkul? cirkul is what you hope for when life tosses lemons your way. cirkul is your frosted treat with a sweet kick of confidence. cirkul is the effortless energy that gets you in the zone. cirkul, available at walmart and drinkcirkul.com. . >>> welcome back to the program. dan murphy with you in london. here are the stories. risk-on sentiment drivin

one, i believe the opec map...he oil leaking into the market is probably then gets counted for the probably escalation could have got higher. i think there is more oilflowing into the market than gets counted. the second important factor, we saw this in earnings on what i would call downstream of the new upstream for the middle east. they have commissioned big refineries, almost plus 2,000,000—dollar capacities. they are putting almost 1.5 million more product into the market, which in my view is effectively sending prudent to the rest of the world, so they keep the oil prices from arising high. i guess the high oil prices is also not good in opec side of unity because then it would start a bit of non—compliance and other things start happening, so i would see 80-90, start happening, so i would see 80—90, more than the price of the price of the market, that is what they are targeting. speaking of opec, they have lowered their outlook, softer expectations for oil demand coming up from china. what is your outlook on

we will treat non-opec supply as though it is opec-plus supply and we will use a different method ofey have to understand the non-opec supply right now is not the same market, not the same industry as it was in 2015, 2016, 2017. this is a whole different game now. there has been a ton of consolidation and big consolidation. many fewer producers. this is not the kind of market where it is produce or die, it is at all costs. it used to be produce or produce just to keep up with payroll. we have increased productivity, we have much larger corporations running the show. they will find it much more difficult to discipline non-opec production if they're talking about the permian. jonathan: you think they are talking about the permian or do you think there talking about places like guiana? ellen: the problem with places like kiana is those are much larger projects that have been in the works for a long time and they cannot just turn that on and off. these are things that have been well forecast, well played out. they know how much is coming online at any given time. in the permian it is sti

at what point does opec blink? think we are starting to get into the territory where people will be asking does opec need to take action to put a brake under this? >> i want to know if we are still waiting for iranian response for killing of senior figures within hamas and hezbollah last week. if there is a response, what do you expect it to look like and what is the geopolitical risk in oil premium right now? >> it is a good question. i'm not a security expert, but we all saw what happened. it was well flagged and it is the case now. it it is a tit-for-tat. i spent most of my career reporting in the middle east. covid and the 2003 invasion of iraq and the impact on the oil markets. you know, 2015, we were talking about a $25 risk premium in the market. there wasn't anything like the level of attacks of the physical infrastructure or anything like attempts now. we will crow at $4 a barrel risk premium. it is not matching the risk you are seeing in the roegion? why is that? it is the 5 million barrels a day. it is t

opec-plus. we have been talking about that. the oil market report is coming.l get details in terms of their projections. just hearing from carol and the view that you will be stuck in this range from $75 to $80 a barrel on brent with all the caveats implied. we will be getting traffic figures from heathrow over summer travel. that will come through tuesday and give us a sense as to how much demand there is for airlines. the unemployment data out of the u.k. as we continue to build expectations on the boe's next steps. the german survey comes out wednesday. we will see if there's any sign of a turnaround in the relative softness of their economy. thanks in focus with ubs earnings coming out wednesday. we have inflation data out of the u.k. tying into the boe story. big week in terms of inflation data. the u.k. print wednesday. thursday, earnings from walmart, alibaba. narendra modi will give his first speech of his third term. friday, the university of michigan consider senate -- consumer sentiment survey and retail sales. from questions fed independence, sayin

on the supply side outside of opec plus, the supply growth remains robust with the u.s.ith the countries overproducing. this is what i would say traders see as the situation. if there is a cease-fire with israel and gaza, the potential of the iran and israel attacking each other weakens because i'm not sure what iran would gain from further escalating that progress in the region. we cannot rule that out. if there is a cease-fire, that would be a plus for consumers around the world and for the middle east in particular. >> indeed. what is also interesting, ca carole, opec is no doubt watching these headlines and well. you flagged opec and the iea revising down the 2024 global demand forecast based on primarily concerns out of china. of course, other issues at play as well. how do you think opecwould respond to potential cease-fire deal for example and offer the downward revisions to the growth outlook coming given the current macroeconomics state of play? >> opec and the market outlook, the one they published in august confirmed the revisions to oil demand were drive n by

according to the opec report, the price per barrel of iranian heavy oil in july. so far, it has reached 83 dollars and 62 cents. the opec report also shows that iran produced 3,271,000 barrels of crude oil in july, which is 20,000 barrels more than in june 2020. it was from june 24 to july. global gold and oil trading started with a decline today. the global price of gold decreased today and reached $2,462 and one cent per ounce with a 56 percent decrease. in other precious metals market as well each ounce of silver decreased by 25 percent to 27 dollars and 67 cents. every unspl. the global price of oil also decreased today. in the international markets, the price of a barrel of brand oil decreased by 37 percent and is traded at 81 dollars and 74 cents per barrel. the price of a barrel of american crude oil is almost unchanged compared to yesterday with a decrease of 3 hundred percent. it was $79.62 each. traveling to iran is as safe as european countries. i recommend european people to definitely travel to beautiful iran. iran is a beautiful modern country. the p

the opec report also shows.oduced 3,271,000 barrels of crude oil in july, which was 20,000 barrels more than in june 2024. golestan province ranks first in quality and second in wheat production in the country . so far, more than 1 million tons of golestan wheat have been delivered to shopping centers and 80 wheat farmers have been paid. wheat harvest in golestan from one million and 100 thousand tons passed and this amount is double of last year's harvest. 2 tons per hectare, 3 tons compared to last year , our harvest in 402 was better and the quality of wheat was better. this year, i had 3 hectares, i took a hectare. recently, more than 1 million and 108 thousand tons of wheat have been delivered from our dear farmers in golestan province, which has brought golestan province to the second place in the country. this year, crops have been really good, especially this year, even the mountainous lakhi fields were blessed, 56 hectares. thank god , the wheat harvest started in the month of june in dasht bergan and n

in 1930 later interest in opec peak. when oil prices exploded during the coil crisis and 1980 us president jimmy carter signed a loan to ensure the production of 10000 megawatts of electricity from opec in the next 2 decades. currently, there are 2 unsure of research plants, one on the island of coma in japan, with 100 kilowatts and the other one. and one are you with 100? 5 kilowatts. french developers were sent to launch a 16 megawatt plant to martinique and 2020. but the project has reportedly been shown due to technical difficulties. there were other research projects as well, but non lasted very long. so even though it's not a new idea, this technology is still very much in its infancy. most of the pilot plans were set up on shore to make a tech commercially viable. at that, a large scale, you need to go off sharp. this is him on kugler from the college ocean engineering, which has been developing low tech parts in hawaii since 1979. you know, the size and amount of hype would you need for your, your call, the water

the opec report also shows that iran's production in july was 3 million to 200. it produced 71 thousand barrels of crude oil, which was 20 thousand barrels more than in june 2024. the collapse of tel aviv's stock market, the fall in the value of the zionists' currency due to the fear of iran's possible response to trevor haniyeh, according to reuters, the currency of the zionist regime decreased by a percentage against the us dollar. this is the worst daily drop of this regime's currency since october 9, two days after the al-aqsa storm operation. stock market. the gaza strip left 20 martyrs and injured. another news is that in west bank. local sources reported the martyrdom of tareq dawood of the palestinian struggle. this palestinian struggle had seriously injured a zionist during an operation in the city of gholkalia an hour ago. tariq dawood, a member of the qassam brigades , was released during the recent exchange of weapons between hamas and the zionist regime. ukraine claimed that the country's military forces are 1,000 the army commander captured square k

and is opec really in control? because between geopolitics, fed uncertainty, and we know opec's focused on that, oil prices have been in a very tight band. >> well, i think opec has been -- and i would -- when i talk about opec, i would say saudi arabia in particular has been, you know, remarkably disciplinedn't and you bring up the fed rate policy, i mean, one of the reasons why the saudis in june said that they were not adding barrels back now, even though people had more robust demand forecast was uncertainty over the trajectory of rate policy. the saudis have been really cautious about trying -- they've been really wanting to avoid oversupply in the market, and even in june, when we had that sort of taper tantrum, when everyone got very freaked out when they came out with the unwind schedule for their voluntary cuts, the saudis came out and said, look, we're going to be very judicious about how we add barrels back. so, if we get clear indications that the market cannot absorb additional barrels, we're not going

could opec, listen, they can do what they want.ust like the federal reserve, they can make a change any time they want, and if they start to see telling signals that maybe demand is starting to tumble globally in china, wherever it might be, here in the u.s., europe, no signs yet, but if they do they could make that move. remember, if you do the opec math they're cutting 5.8 million barrels a day roughly. opec cuts, voluntary additional cuts from saudi arabia. all this, of course, as we talk about, you've talked about, david, that the u.s. oil production is at 13.3. i think the thing to keep on, u.s. rig counts, used to talk about them, we don't. if they start to tumble that might tell you that american oil complex is anticipating a potential slowdown and i know just the person who has some time now to look at those rig counts. >> you can count every rig, brian. in terms of the levels on brent to watch that might trigger some sort of meeting move at the next meeting what would that be? we're at 76. looks like back in december we we

meanwhile, opec has lowered its forecast for global oil demand for the first time since the beginning of the year, analysts believe the correction is small. fuel demand will grow at 2,100,000 barrels per day, instead of the expected 2.4, the gap for the next year is even less 1,780,000 barrels per day against 1,850,000. there is an accumulation of savings against the growth of expenses. all this limits, on the one hand, the activity of movement, the purchase of durable goods, in particular a car. all this partially leads to a decrease in oil consumption, according to opec analysts, in the future, oil consumption will grow, mainly due to china, india and other buyers from asia. lugansk plant marshal put into operation new high-tech machines, they produce specialized products for industry. funds for the purchase of equipment appeared after the enterprise entered the free economic zone. report by alexey alexeev. an industrial robot makes a weld seam as smooth as a ruler, it would take a person twice as long to make the same. the work-technical complex welds the workpiece of the ball part

opec plus countries may suspend or reverse the phase-out of voluntary oil production cuts depending onision was announced following the results of the regular meeting of ministers. our correspondent dmitry morocco followed the discussion. he is in direct contact with the studio. so, dmitry, greetings, what is the reason for such a statement? yes, alexey, greetings, market conditions are changing dynamically, there are many influencing factors now, including events in the middle east, especially however, it was decided to leave the current parameters of the deal unchanged; we are talking about voluntary production cuts, which the opec plus countries have undertaken in addition to those obligatory. a gradual increase in oil production, but these plans to increase production may still be abandoned if market conditions change unexpectedly. we once again confirmed the decisions that were made at the second ministerial meeting. june, this means that the agreement was extended as a whole until the end of 2025, voluntary obligations for restrictions until the end of the third quarter of this y

per barrel, experts surveyed by market watch cited tensions in the middle east as the reason, while opecowered its prices for the first time since the beginning of the year. forecast of world demand for oil, analysts consider the correction small, demand for fuel will grow at the level of 2.1000 barrels per day, instead of the expected 2 million and a quarter, for the next year the gap is even smaller 1.780.000 barrels per day against 1.850 thousand. there is an accumulation of savings. against the growth of expenses, all this limits on the one hand the activity of movement, the purchase of consumer goods, in particular cars, all this partially leads to a decrease in oil consumption. according to opec analysts, in the future oil consumption will grow, mainly due to china, india and other buyers from asia. the us state department openly stated that they will not prevent ukraine from shelling russia with western weapons, promising kiev further support. such statements. american officials walk along the streets of kiev like they own the place, smiling frivolously , accompanied by their reti

talk about the solidarity between opec, opec plus. that's one of the most important developments in terms of oil and at least discipline where, yes, we know saudis always had to pick up the slack around the edge, but to some extent it's been part of the stability in oil prices and even near the bottom end of the range. i would argue oil prices have been remarkably stable in a volatile world. >> you're absolutely right. we've seen the lowest volatility in oil prices this year. the oil vix has been trading at around 20 with oil options and really very low levels, and opec has a lot to do with that, to be honest. the strategic petroleum reserve has also been used to stabilize prices by the white house repeatedly over the course of the last 18 months, first releasing barrels but refilling and sending it to market so we've seen stability coming from both ends, opec plus and the spr so i do think it's been a factor then it has been holding steady but we are now getting towards the end of that and need china stimulus and interest rate cuts a

opec plus countries may suspend or cancel phasing out voluntary oil production cuts depending on marketdecision was announced following the results of the regular meeting of ministers. our correspondent dmitry followed the discussion. morocco: market conditions are changing dynamically, there are now many influencing factors, including events in the middle east, however, it was decided to leave the current parameters of the deal unchanged, we are talking about voluntary production cuts that opec plus countries have undertaken in addition to those mandatory quotas that already exist, this is the level of 2 million 2000 barrels per day, it will remain until october, when it begins. decisions that were made at the ministerial meeting on june 2, this means that the agreement was extended as a whole until the end of 2025, and voluntary obligations on restrictions until the end of the third quarter of this year, starting from the fourth quarter, if the situation develops this way and the balance of supply and demand is positive, a partial increase in production is possible, oil prices fluctua

we'll see if that could impact opec's thinking. right now, guys, no change to the opec math.ecause the united states had record oil production. about 13.3, 13.2 million barrels per day, u.s. record production. sort of changing opec's thinking. more natural gas. not sure anybody had that on their 2024 bingo card. not a lot of bragging about it, by the way, from 1600 pennsylvania avenue. where we are. a note on your story coming in. have good news on evan gershkovich. went to a new jersey high school. a lot of family in the area. a lot of people in princeton rooting for evan and his family. could be potentially very, very good news. >> brian sullivan. thank you for helping us through the news this morning. appreciate it. >>> coming up, an amazon second quarter results preview as we near the end of mag seven earnings. heading to break, another look at facebook owner meta. shares higher on earnings and revenue beats. stock up 8.5% pre-market. stay tuned. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc. >> university of maryland global campus is a school for real life, one that values the su

and who runs opec? every single one of them are autocratic dictators. if you look at opec+, it is almost all dictators. the u.s. produces a decent amount of oil and gas, but it can never supply as much. and this infrastructure is extremely vulnerable, as we have seen in ukraine. to make sure that we are energy secure, we have got to be able to move away from oil and gas. it is as simple as that. in fact, the world moving away from fossil fuels is an existential threat to putin. it is something that the dictators of the world for your the most because it reduces their impact exponentially while solving the existential threat of climate change. you get both, cake and ice cream. that is big picture wise. when we look at the tactical side of it, there is a big reason why there are smart energy grids. we know that it is more resilient and cheaper. in the case of natural disasters which resulted in migration of populations and insecurity, ensuring that our infrastructure is resilient is also energy security.

libya is outside of the opec-plus quota sphere, so they are trying to give libya a time to bring thatroduction backup. we are still below the 1.6 million barrel a day level that they had prior to the overthrow gaddafi, prior to the uprisings and issues that have affected production, but they did get back to this kind of million barrel a day stable area, but yeah, people are used to seeing these going up and down in terms of libya, so people are not really banking on libya in terms of making their balance, so this is one of those wildcards that's out there, but again, it is -- even if they are not in the quota system, it is opec production coming out of the market, production that now is flowing mainly into europe, so that's an issue there, but europe can draw on a lot of u.s. production of crude. joumanna: always fun to talk about oil markets in the drivers of those markets. that was energy markets reporter anthony di paola. the international atomic energy agency director, the iaea director, rafael grossi, says he will be leading today's mission to the kursk nuclear power plant in the

i know opec met last week. do you expect any intervention into the oil market?> it's a great question, frank. look, i have been reaching out to the opec ministers to get a sense of how they are reading the declines and the market sell down. the word we're hearing is status quo for now. opec is constantly monitoring the market and constantinly assessing the market balance. the signal is they are unlikely to change course because they already have a strategy in place to manage the supply side. what we don't know at this point is what's going to happen on the demand side. if we really did see the data really unfolding in the united states in an unfavorable way that could, perhaps, force the fed to act more aggressively, that could ultimately impact the outlook for oil demand. that is the most important thing to watch at this point as we continue to track the market declines. >> dan murphy live in london. great to see you. >>> as we head to break, intel adding to the 26% loss and the worst day since back in 1974. look this morning. intel down 5%. the chip sector is

according to opec's monthly report, the price of iranian heavy oil and its production increased from july 11 to august 10. according to the opec report, the price of each barrel of iranian heavy oil in july reached 84 dollars and 57 cents, of which 92 cents is equivalent to 1.1. the percentage increased compared to the previous month. the meteorological organization has announced that most of the northern regions of the country will be affected by the temperature drop until the weekend the temperature will decrease. today, scattered temporary rains in west azarbaijan, north east azarbaijan, north ardabil, gilan, mazandaran, golestan. and north khorasan will happen. hello dear compatriots. i have to tell you that during today after the strike and tonight. we are witnessing rains in the north-western parts of the country, south of the caspian sea in golestan province, as well as in the north-eastern parts of north khorasan province and in the more southern parts of sistan-baluchistan, hormozgan, kerman and fars provinces. due to the intensity of the rains, the flooding of public roads,

when you say disciplining non-opec supply, are you talking just about shale or everything else?: mostly u.s. shale because shale is in the short cycle that responds within a year or so to price changes. apply elsewhere in the world is mostly long cycle where it takes typically many years. taking a step back, over the last two years opec has been effective at balancing the market by adjusting supply and to keep prices in a fairly narrow range by crude standards. if opec goes ahead with raising production and it is a close call, we may potentially shift to a new equilibrium with more volatility where the new floor under old prices becomes the breakeven price of u.s. shale producers. jonathan: let's go back to the experience of the middle of the last decade. there was a real effort from the saudis to discipline and almost punish shale producers. shale producers came out of that much stronger. what is different about this time compared to then? daan: as you point out, u.s. producers have very strong balance sheets now. the reinvestment rate is significantly lower. 50% of free cash f

we will check in on that report coming out of opec. also reporting out of bloomberg on refiners in the u.s. reducing their output as well. suggesting maybe there is a surplus in terms of oil building up in the states. tuesday, ppi will drop. that is leading up to the cpi print on wednesday. by the end of wednesday, we will have a much clearer picture of the inflation dynamics of the u.s. and what that could mean for this federal reserve. wednesday in the u.k., inflation data as well. important in terms of how we price the next move. catherine mann, hawkish, saying she is not convinced enough work has been done on inflation, concerned about services and wages. you can get a roundup of the stories you need. go to d.a. why bigo -jack- dayb . new rounds of talks to begin with israel. we have an exclusive interview with one tech co-founder. that is coming up later in the show. questions about how the u.k. government is looking to potentially regulate social media after the rights of last week. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: wel

but one of the big x factors here is what opec does next opec is scheduled to actually add more supplyn the coming months. and so if they do that, veteran analyst tom kloza, he told me that we could see the national average which is at 3:30 right now, the national average go below $3 a gallon by the end of the year, which would mean rahel, that whoever wins in november could be starting their administration in january with relatively cheap gas prices. >> fascinating was the opec meeting. >> opec meeting is i think that decision september the end of september. so we're going to hear about that in the case for that. >> all right. matt egan thank you. >> thanks for how smack in the middle of an election season. this morning, defense secretary lloyd austin will meet with his ukrainian counterpart at the pentagon. this is to discuss ukraine's current incursion into russia's kursk region cnn, senior international correspondent fred pleitgen is in kyiv this morning. what's the latest from there? fred? >> yeah. good morning, john. of course, pretty high-stake visit. that's going on there by th

and who runs opec? every single one of them are autocratic dictators. if you look at opec+, it is almost all dictators. the u.s. produces a decent amount of oil and gas, but it can never supply as much. and this infrastructure is extremely vulnerable, as we have seen in ukraine. to make sure that we are energy secure, we have got to be able to move away from oil and gas. it is as simple as that. in fact, the world moving away from fossil fuels is an existential threat to putin. it is something that the dictators of the world for your the most because it reduces their impact exponentially while solving the existential threat of climate change. you get both, cake and ice cream. that is big picture wise. when we look at the tactical side of it, there is a big reason why there are smart energy grids. we know that it is more resilient and cheaper. in the case of natural disasters which resulted in migration of populations and insecurity, ensuring that our infrastructure is resilient is also energy security.

the reason we've even held where we are is that saudi has cut back a lot and so has the the rest of opeclike a bit of a rough run here. kelly: okay. i want the talk about the china piece of it all because that's a big part around the demand. the first seven months of 2024 crude oil imports pell to -- fell to 10.9 million barrels a day. i think that was 3 20,000 fewer than the same time last year, right? you've got the chinese moving more and more towards electric vehicles, construction is lowering demand. they seem to be switching from diesel to lng for their trucks -- >> right. kelly: do you think that this is something that, okay, we could bounce back from in china, or is this evidence that there are actually structural changes that could mean demand stays lower for quite some time? >> yeah, i think structurally demand has reached something of a peak in china, and that's in the context of how much it grew over the last 20 years. so we just saw extraordinary growth. in one year, i think 2004-5, chinese demand alone grew 2 million barrels a day. that's significantly higher than all of gl

in fact, opec, we didn't even talk about opec was president. >> now you're right.ing a record amount of oil today, but guess what? that's because the price of oil is about 40% more expensive than it was when trump was president. so our analysis shows we'd be producing three or four million more barrels a day with a pro drilling policy that builds the pipelines and the infrastructure, the leasing that we need. so we could be energy dominant again, and i do agree with trump if we'd stuck with that policy, i don't think you'd see russian tanks in ukraine today. >> the catherine the vice president a focal point of what, you know, please. yeah. >> sorry. can i demand that? yes. >> because a lot of it's wrong we are energy independent today. if you are measuring energy independence by the fact that we are exporting more oil than we are importing. in fact, been such for over two years, the longest stretch in american history. and that was the metric by which trump seemed to refer trump in supporters like stephen moore referred to energy independence when trump was in offi

wars and opec and the like, very jagged and bumpy but the trend is your friend. looking at. lou: i saw the data and revisited. i've been on your show, the attacks in israel, responding to war and recessions, interesting stat to make you sleep well as an investor, when the fed starts cutting rates, whether or not the economy goes into recession or doesn't is a positive trend for the markets, one year, three years, 5 years out. if we enter a recession, history shows us the markets will still be up by double digits. if you have a 12 month time horizon, nada monday afternoon lunch horizon, we will be okay. neil: if you give me one day horizons that is safer for me. we will talk about that another time. are you are the best, i appreciate your analysis as always. david asman, very good read of the markets in august. how many times have we gone through august, russian ruble evaluation, panic in latin america, all of that august develop ed. what do we make of others? david: we are hardwired to find patterns in everything that happens. it's just our nature but we are talk

the eyes will be on opec-plus and their thoughts regarding whether they will add to the market later this year, but at this point, it is volatile. you have events like this and that will be factored into what is going on for decision-makers at opec+. joumanna: it's not just about oil. the other commodity i have been keeping a close eye on is natural gas prices etf. we have been planning steadily over the course of the summer. as we start heading into the winter season, in europe, what does the outlook look like for european net gas prices? >> things are looking up, or at least prices started to ease at the end of last week, which is good if you are a european policymaker looking into the winter and worrying about having enough gas storage. gas storage is very full at this point, over 90% full, and the maintenance outlook from norway which is europe's biggest supplier of natural gas looks steady. at this point, there is a cautious sense of optimism there will be enough gas and there won't be the volatility we have seen in recent years. joumanna: you said you are in oslo for a conferen

so that deal will probably end up being extended, not terminated and see opec plus trying to constraind. >> where are you in terms of expectations and u.s. production? 13.4, something around that right now? all-time highs, becoming an issue certainly in the presidential election as well. put it in perspective for the viewers where we are and where we're headed? >> the biden administration has hardly been a horror show for sure. record levels of oil production and our oil and gas folks are amazing what they've done. they've engineered their way to break even prices in the $30 range. so i don't see that production going down much. hard to see it going up very much because there are infrastructure pipeline constraints which is where arguably the administration policies do come into play a bit and hold back on that. but i don't see the american dominance, really, globally. we are the number one oil producer, one of the largest oil exporters we have saved the world's bacon in terms of the supply constraints that did materialize in the russian invasion of ukraine. we're in good shape here an

opec gradually starts to unwind. will say in terms of opec policy, they always have mentioned are maintained rather all the policy is dependent on market conditions. should inventories build too much and we've seen a bit of a macro scare recently as well, then they will reconsider their decision. no decision has been taken yet. it is still a couple of weeks before that to do so. i think they will remain vigilant. as of now, our balances show their bringing back arrows. >> what is the floor? we see the risk premium coming back into the price because of what is happening geopolitically in the middle east. we see -- does opec-plus want to hold $75 for brent? >> i think, again, opec-plus is not targeting a pricer, they're looking at the metals. where we see the floor for crude is around $80 for brent. yes, fundamentals in q4 do not look bullish but right here, right now, stocks -- when you're building from record low stocks, you automatically provide yourself with a significant buffer or rather you are able to build a lo

bear in mind, today is a technical meeting for opec-plus, it is a market monitoring meeting.ypically they were just ascertain the outlook. remember, the opec-plus group are set to start withdrawing some restrictions at the end of q3, so beginning to put back oil barrels to the market in q4, but if the situation holds with the outlook from china demand looking weak, it's unlikely they would be incentivized to put further barrels onto the market. the reason we see an uptick is concern about geopolitical developments. that being said, none of the supply outlook has actually been hit. yesterday iranian supply has been on the up and up over the last five years, pumping the most it has in the last six years, unless that oil infrastructure gets hit, it is unlikely you will see an impact on supply, hence why the outlook seems to be quite balanced. tom: joumanna bercetche on the latest in the tensions in the region and the impact on the oil markets. plenty more coming up. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: socgen posting trading revenue to help the french franc outperform wall st

let's remember opec.ec, the oil cartel, they have predicated all their budgets on crude oil between $80 and $90. so i don't think it has the ability to stay down much longer. that's why i see the move higher back up to $9. >> we appreciate that. thank you. >> always a pleasure. >>> ahead, our power house road trip continues. we're heading to st. louis where houses are flying off the market in an average of six days. it feels like there should be a song with this. we'll be right back. ameritrade is now part of schwab. bringing you an elevated experience, tailor-made for trader minds. ♪♪ go deeper with thinkorswim: our award-wining trading platforms ♪♪ unlock support from the schwab trade desk— our team of passionate traders who live and breathe trading. ♪♪ and sharpen your skills with an immersive online education crafted just for traders. ♪♪ all so you can trade brilliantly. ♪♪ the all new godaddy airo helps you get your business online in minutes with the power of ai... ...with a perfect name, a great lo

crude oil reserves decreased by more than 3 million barrels, which is the sixth weekly decrease of the opec. some experts also believe that with the intensification of tension in west asia and the limited supply and reduction of the production of the sharara oil field in libya due to the protests , the supply of oil is potentially threatened. support for rising prices. also weakness china's economy remains a very important factor of pressure on the oil market. the report of the american federal government shows that the number of homeless people in this country has reached its highest level. according to nbc, the number of homeless people in america has increased by 12% this year compared to last year. kokar and hajji means from the people of hojjat, reason and guidance, and how well he deserves his name. you are very welcome from all over the world. most of his work was in cultural work . there is very little in our life that the mouth of the person who comes here should be sweet. now, what does he want to sing ? what does he want to do cultural work? now a sky is the opportunity to fly hi

in turn, opec lowered its forecast due to slowing demand in china.re is an accumulation of savings against the growth of expenses, this all limits on the one hand the activity of movement, the purchase of consumer goods, in particular cars, all this. meters fuel has risen in price by 8% in just one session, and only today there was a small correction. experts believe that the main reason for the growth is concern about the transit of gas from russia through ukraine. the fighting in the kursk region may lead to interruptions in supplies through the sudzha point. it is through it that fuel flows to europe, the volume is about 40 million cubic meters per day. today, this is the largest transit corridor for russian gas supplies to europe, if it is... the europeans will not be able to quickly compensate for the fuel shortage. in addition to russia , gas pipeline systems from norway, algeria , the netherlands, azerbaijan, libya, and great britain are also operating, but it is unlikely that anyone from these countries can significantly increase the volume o

in august, opec has already reduced its forecasts for global oil demand growth this year to 2.11 million barrels per day, well, goldman sachs noted that the brand could fall to $68 per barrel in the absence of demand from china. as analysts explain, the decline in oil prices reduces the export revenues of russian oil companies, and then their shares fall. but there is another factor that affects the russian stock market. the key rate. in july, it was raised from 16 to 18%. this is certainly a very important factor, which essentially, well, takes away liquidity from stock market in favor of short-term products, so -called liquidity exchange-traded funds and simply deposits. of course, banks have been offering very high fixed rates for 3-4 months for the past few months, which also reduces the attractiveness of investments in riskier assets. everyone is waiting for some kind of signal, conditionally to reduce inflation and that the cycle of raising rates by the central bank has ended, this will probably also be a necessary factor there to restore interest in the russian stock market. in co

this is the equivalent of opec in the gas market. the organization notes that lng supplies to the eu for january-july decreased by a quarter to a minimum since september of the twenty -first year. at the same time, the main catalyst for the growth of global demand was the asia-pacific region, offering a significant premium for lng compared to europe. x5 group's net profit in the first half of the year increased by more than 40%. the indicator amounted to almost 60 billion rubles. revenue grew by a quarter to 1.850 billion. this is data according to international reporting standards. the total debt of the management company. and money transfers from russia to georgia have decreased by almost 70% since the beginning of the year, the total figure exceeded 367 million dollars. the data was published by the national bank of georgia, but even with such a noticeable reduction , russia retains first place in terms of transfers to this country, italy is in second place, and the united states is in third. of these two directions, transfers to

ukraine and there were sanctions put on russian oil and we also saw cutbacks in production by saudi, the opec production cuts caused prices to move up, and that contributed significantly to inflation. fortunately since then we've seen a lot more production come out of the united states. u.s. tprabgers have really -- tprabgers have -- frackers have really ramped up production. they're producing 13.3 million barrels a day. that's an all-time record high. that's up over a million barrels a day from where we were a year ago. the u.s. is now the largest oil producer in the world in orders of magnitude. we're produce 13-g.3 million, speaking from memory so i might not have this exactly right but roughly right, russia, saudi are number two and three and they're producing 8.5, nine million barrels a day. so the ability of u.s. f >> we are leaving this for a conversation on election security. the arizona secretary of state and the pennsylvania secretary is joining us. >> i just really want to say these run the elections and they are often the ones who disseminate rules

neil: very good point, to your point, opec lowered its global demand forecast by about 135,00s opec the oil giant say the demand globally is not what we hoped it would be. that is outside keeping as you said a lid on to the prices this far. if i switch gears. the whole middle east issue has become a hot political issue and how kamala harris has struggled the battle between keeping those in favor of the palestinians were zinging the israelis against jewish voters of a safe democratic block, so far she's kind of balance that well, she is still benefiting from the honeymoon glow the last three weeks she has become a presidential candidate. if you go into that in detail, before i get into your column i want to get your sense on how she managed to pull that off? >> she had a lot of help from the media. i don't think we've ever seen we got used to the idea that the media will treat any democratic candidate for president especially in these circumstances with something approaching adulation and on bended knee. that's kind of what we had so far without her being pressed into change position is

in august , opec already reduced its forecasts for the growth of global oil demand this year to 2.11 million barrels per day. well, goldman sachs noted that brand could fall to $68 per barrel in the absence of demand from china. as analysts explain, the decline in oil prices reduces the export income of russian oil companies, and then their shares go down. but there is another factor that affects the russian stock market. the key rate. in july, it was raised from 16 to 18%. this is certainly a very important factor, which essentially, well, takes liquidity from the stock market in favor of short-term products, uh, so-called uh, exchange-traded liquidity funds and just deposits, of course, banks have been offering very high fixed rates for 3-4 months for the past few months - it also reduces attractiveness - the us reserve will make it clear that it does not intend to soften the policy aggressively, as the market expects. to unite all russian federations of gymnastic sports into one organization, this is the proposal made today by the president of the federation of artistic gymnastics

according to opec analysts, in the future oil consumption will grow mainly due to china, india and otherers from asia. let me remind you that the largest supplier of oil to india and china, sasha, is our country. thank you, masha, this is maria grigorieva was with a story about why oil and gas are becoming more expensive on world markets. now to messages marked urgently they come from. from svr, we will return to them a little later, but for now we will break for a short advertisement. sale where bought, buy men's pants h&m for 1,449 rubles. pain, spasm, premiums buprofen renival, it reduces pain, take dertaverine renival, helps with abdominal cramps, we trust renival, we choose renival. large purchases will become easier! apply for a loan with cashback from smer in 5 minutes in the mobile application! in anywhere appetite! only dad can tame! sausages, dad can! ace there is an easier way! bref colored water for clean fresh toilet with each flush! bref at a super price! hurry to buy in the shops of your city! reliable! the same, reliable tools! for small workshops of large production! all

international energy agency if opec+ goes ahead with its plan to increase supply, the situation of global oil markets will change from a supply shortage to a supply surplus. examining the programs proposed by the ministers of power and position. the 14th government in the commissions of the islamic council of ministers, mr. atsaf , proposed the position of gradual elimination and stopping the price he announced the establishment of directives in order to improve the competitiveness of enterprises as one of his most important plans , as well as the sustainable supply of energy needed by industrial and mining production units and support for the creation and development of self-sufficient power plants in the industrial and civil sector as other work priorities. the proposed minister is a position in the 14th government. abbas aliabadi, the proposed minister of energy, also stated the gradual elimination of mandatory pricing from his most important programs in the 14th government. according to aliabadi, the transfer of government power plant exchanges to the energy exchange and the creation

in turn, opec lowered its forecast the day before due to slowing demand in china. there is an accumulation of savings against the growth of expenses, all this limits activity on the one hand. experts believe that the main reason for the growth is concern about the transit of gas from russia through ukraine. gazprom states that gas supply through the sudzha station is still continuing at the same level as in july, last year the total transit volume was 15 billion cubic meters, and this is 4.5% of the total gas consumption in the european union. it is easy to get confused in the facts when you see only part of the overall picture, the pursuit of views changes entire locations, it is easy to make a deepfake, change the voice. we will expose all the fakes. now the economic news in brief.

last monday, the organization of petroleum exporting countries (opec ) reduced its forecast of an increase in oil demand this year due to the fall in china's demand . the end of the capital market news, god bless iran, america, a long-standing confrontation, what is the importance in between. it is gaining a correct understanding of this is the nature of the enmity. therefore, we must refer to history to clarify the starting point of this enmity . americans at the same time in mind. iranians in the early 20th century, iranians did not have a negative mentality towards the americans , they did not look at them like the russians and the british, that is why they also used this space to influence themselves, now through, for example, the semi-parliamentary assemblies of that period, now after the constitution. for example, having a tendency to hire consultants from england or other countries instead. use american consultants, we have courses in the field of customs, for example, to do this bringing advisors from this country to bring the leaders of the three victorious countries in world war