oppenheimer, jpmorgan, pgm, sticking with me.'s get a check on where the market has been this week. treasury yields higher on the back end of the curve. up eight basis points at the 10 year. ahead, fed chair janet yellen's congressional testimony. a bank of canada rate decision. will things get more hawkish? this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro. the final spread. coming up over the next week, the g-20 summit wraps up, janet yellen testifies, donald trump earningsnce, and bank and a rate decision is coming from the bank of canada. with rate protectionism in the g-20, emerging markets are facing a major test this week as core government bond yields back up as well. sentiment starts to sour, money starts to flow. the story for the emerging-market complex, a big year for 2017. doesn't have the resilience to carry it through the year end? our guests are still with us. risk, let's about talk about a test for the asset class. e.m., big red through 2017. a big test right now. >> this is the beginning of t

oppenheimer. details the development of the atomic bomb. through the use of atomic bombs on the japanese cities of nag s nagasaki and hiroshima. it's just under two hours. >> our speaker tonight is martin sherwin. he's a professor of history at george mason university. his biography of j. robert oppenheimer won the 2006 pulitzer surprise the national book critic circle award in the english speaking union book award. he's also the awe are though of "a world destroyed, the atomic bomb and the prize alliance." american foreign relations as well as the american history book prize. it was a 1976 finalist for both the nationalist book award and the pulitzer prize and the current paper back edition of "a world destroyed" is subtitled "hiroshima and its legacies." visiting as the fund visiting professor of american history. and is a visiting professor at wellesley college. he's taught at uc berkeley and the university of pennsylvania. he's received fellowships from the macarthur guggenheim sloan and rockefeller foundations and the national endowmen

oppenheimer has an outperform on it.a way to capture alpha on the upside, and we like adding to a long stop position here by doing a one by two call spread. we like the july 28 trade, bu ying one call and selling two calls. julie: what does that do for you? what movement are you trying to capitalize on? alon: we looking at profits to a 4010% move. -- profits to afford a 10% move. you are not really adding downside risk by sliding a quarter. that is your premium. you are outperforming a long stop position, so it gives you a nice range. julie: the other earnings report you're watching is f5 networks, sort of internet traffic services, so to speak. there, you're looking a little more straightforward for the strategy. alon: a little defensive and f5. oppenheimer has an outperform rating on it. given less quarter, ther potential disappointed this quarter, you can buy the july 28 put, paying two dollars on it. you do not have to worry about we start going below $122 with that long stock position. julie: these companies out wit

let's bring in oppenheimer managing director and senior analyst who initiated coverage of blue apron with a buy good morning, jason. >> good morning. >> so here's what i don't get about blue apron it seems like the key to them being profitable long term is knowing way ahead of time that their customers are going to want to eat and sourcing those ingredients as cheaply as possible i just don't see in their model exactly how they get there >> so you're right for this model to work. it does need to be a subscription business. when we think about what people are concerned about the competition, for example, there is concerns that grocers will offer this as an a lacarte offering we look at the gross margin effectively what the cost with food, packing and shipping that was about 33% of revenue last year. up from 2015 and we think that can go to 40 over time. ultimately they have a margin advantage versus a traditional grocery business which runs as much thinner margins the question is really the competitive environment. there is a number of privately funded companies in the space and i thi

we go through all the numbers with oppenheimer funds.atest factory data, a preview with commerzbank next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ ." this is "daybreak asia >> today brings us but other gauge on the help of china with the latest pmi data hitting wires in two hours. tom mackenzie joins us from beijing for a preview. what can we expect? the forecast is 51.5 in terms of the manufacturing pmi. that compares to 51.7, a strong number we got in june. we have not then above 51.7 since mid-2012. there have been positive early indicators, including a sales managers index at the strongest level in two years, 52.8. metal prices showing strength, indicating positive momentum as well. we will also get nonmanufacturing pmi, no forecast, but june was 54.9, construction and i.t. feeding into that. tomorrow, we will get the private caixin number. or above for the official pmi, that will underlying that growing consensus we will see healthy growth in the second half in china. the slowdown may be having been delayed somewhat, at least for now. >> that's right

with me is gerald oppenheim from the london emergency trust — one of the charities overseeing distributionme of the money. and this is quite a lot of money. the public have been extraordinarily generous whether through the red cross, or contributing to the evening standard and their dispossessed fund or the kensington and chelsea foundation, the sums are building up. it is extraordinary generosity. how difficult is it getting that money to the people who need it? the london emergencies trust has a particular role which is to work with the next of kin were people have died or are missing presumed dead. as well as those who we re presumed dead. as well as those who were injured and taken to hospital, evenif were injured and taken to hospital, even if just were injured and taken to hospital, even ifjust for a few hours. so we have a particular remit there to work with people who perhaps are the most damaged amongst many people who have had a lot of suffering in the past few weeks. are you confident that you're getting to them, the fa ns that you're getting to them, the fans that they need? it

oppenheimer. details the development of the atomic bomb. through the use of atomic bombs on the japanese cities of nag s nagasaki and hiroshima. it's just under two hours. >> our speaker tonight is martin sherwin. he's a professor of history at george mason university. his biography of j. robert oppenheimer won the 2006 pulitzer surprise the national book critic circle award in the english speaking union book award. he's also the awe are though of "a world destroyed, the atomic bomb and the prize

oppenheimer came out today and said the weakness is a buying opportunity.it's not helping the shares at the moment. finally, chipotle shares rounding out our consumer names. down 2.2%. we have an analyst call as possible. oppenheimer analyst cautious on the shares, even with them in a bear market. he says you would need to see more changes at the chain and cds material risk to the streets estimate on this one as well. david: thank you. coming up, the head of the confirmation hearing tomorrow on president trump's nominee for fbi director, christopher wray, we heard from a former fbi assistant director. we will ask whether he thinks wray can stand up to the white house when a job requires, particularly in light of what happened to the former director. this is bloomberg. ♪ david: "bloomberg markets: the trump economy." i'm david westin. mr. hoskins now has the legal defense fund. welcome back to bloomberg. good to have you here. what is the big question -- one of the big questions in the minds of senators when they talk to mr. wray? fbi personnel, can a new di

the stock now we are joined now by rbc capital market senior internet analyst mark mahaney and oppenheimer'srector of internet research jason helstein welcome to both of you mark, start with you, so this is supposedly possibly amazon's biggest day, but one day in isolation, i don't know, we don't hear about logistics backups with ups and fedex around prime day how are we going to gauge the success of this day versus others >> i think it's going to be hard to do that i assume that they'll put out another press release with some hints and clues to how it did. we think this could contribute a billion in sales for the company. you're talking about 50% year over year growth that all said still only accounts for about, i don't know, 3%, maybe 4% of the quarter's total revenue capture. the one key thing is, given the timing of prime day, it's not running into any crush of other shipments, so it doesn't -- it's not running into holiday shipment crushes that way you avoid some of the logistics problems that later in the year events would have we think it's just a sign of the maturity or the growth of

joining us for a wrapup of the action, christopher kotowski a senior analyst at oppenheimer and companygroup to say that did well but wells fargo disappointed? christopher: i think broadly that both jpmorgan and it citigroup had good clean beasts, noted -- beats, notably it was , it was quarter actually down slightly less. but still down. despite that, nice growth in the other core banking operations out of citi and a jpmorgan. wells fargo, it was know one thing. a little bit more on the expense, less on the revenues. i think it is a function probably of some degree of distraction, both on the part of management and of the staff. and in the wake of all of the sales practice issues. vonnie: what can jpmorgan hope to do with fixed income after citigroup is on their tail, something like $1 million behind, a couple hundred billion dollars worth of trading revenue? christopher: the thing to keep in mind is it is very volatile on a quarterly basis. on an annual basis, it is stable. the last three years have been for our industry group between 106-1 $10 billion, so very between $106 billion-10

and we have the oppenheimer funds ceo -- cio. joe: thank you for joining us.ple of language tweaks. we are not seeing much reaction, but a little bit of the lower yields at the long end of the curve. what is your key takeaway? >> i think the key takeaway is the fact the fed is indicating it is a bit more data dependent than it was in its communication in the past. the fact inflation is being made out the way it is and in the decision could be driven by it, i assumed they would not be data independent. thingsployment and other driving it would do well. the type they are not -- fact that they are not taking immediate measures -- that is new. joe: the fact that it could be driven by cell phone bills and concerns on rising asset prices, this dow's back, maybe it is not a one-off cell phone bill discount. >> it is a continuation of the past janet yellen and how she has been. it is a continuation. scarlet: when it comes to financial conditions, we have had 4 interest rate increases, 100 basis points, and it has none -- done nothing to tighten those conditions. how d

ryan leavitt is senior investment strategist at oppenheimer funds joins us now to discuss. good to have you with us. >> thank you. >> so, why are americans putting money in c that pay so little? >> well, there's an irony in all of this. eight years ago, we were worried about the amount of debt that households had built up and now, we're having a conversation about the level of cash that they've built up, so this is a better place t. remember, we've had a economic environment where the economy's that's been very good for corporate profit bability and good for the market. c wages. and i think investors are being cautious as a as a result. >> we're looking at the notes and one of the thipgs you say is that they're fearful for employment. it may be tenuous, yet, we have a tight laeber market. >> we do. my comments around that is not that the u.s. economy's about to roll over and the unemployment rate's about to go up substa remember though, we tend as of us remember a recession and in 2001 and a financial crisis in 2008 and 2009. and that does lead to us to change our behavior

joining us now on the phone, oppenheimer managing director and senior tesla analyst collin rush collinod morning >> thanks for having me. >> so the expectations for how quickly production can going to ramp on this model three pretty eye popping. elan musk saying going from 100 to 1500 and then in december perhaps producing 20,000 per month. now if my math is correct thashgsz going to be three times the rate pretty much that tesla has ever produced a car before how much should investors be concerned about what happens to the stock if they don't hit the targets? >> so i think expectations on the buy side are that will be two to three quarters delayed on those sorts of numbers the fact that company is out putting those numbers in the public realm now just as they begin to start the ramp i think is a level of confidence that we haven't seen from them and quite some time on a ramp like this. so, you know, we have to see how things shake out and how things ramp there is always a surprise with this sort of thing but i think this is a very good day for tesla that they're starting early and fee

julie: joining us is the head of institutional equity derivatives at oppenheimer and company.art with janet yellen and the market reaction. there was a discrepancy between most of the commentary i saw this at she kind of stayed the course and the market reaction, which sent to read the commentary is more dovish. alon: she was a lot more dovish than expected and did not say anything too new. they are clearly watching the stock market. they want to not be the cause of any big decline. they are managing accordingly. if you see the market higher, they think they want to raise in september. it will be an important month, the next market catalyst. ecb is september 7. julie: do you think people are going to get flat-footed, that we will see the fed act in september, and that will cause some choppiness? alon: the fed is trying to game plan this as best as they can to not surprise anybody. they are watching tax reform and legislation. if that does not come through, maybe the fed does not raise rates, but it could have other negative applications. a couple moving parts and volatility mi

jonathan: john stoltzfus of oppenheimer, great to have you on the program.ck, always great to catch up with you. let's whip through the action. down 1/10 move lower, of 1% on the dow. down on the s&p 500. the loss is gaining a little bit of a momentum on the ftse 100 in london, the gap driven by the on the big automakers. the eu and the german regulators takes a look at possible collusion among the biggest automakers on the planet. new york city, you are watching bloomberg tv. ♪ >> this is bloomberg daybreak. i am jessica summers. here in the hewlett-packard enterprise greenroom. coming up, we will bring you a special report starting at 2:00 p.m. eastern. ma is set to pick up in 2017. and having worked on tribune media companies and the sinclair broadcast group, he is the lead advisor on the saudi aramco ico. the co-founder will be joining us now from the new york stock exchange. , great tooodzadegan see you. i have a chart to describe to you and it looks at ceo confidence in the economy. announced transactions and that ceo confidence is the white line in th

this is not the time to be selling stocks >> this is the point that oppenheimer is trying to make. the fundamentals that matter to the market, and everything else, are getting better >> that's exactly right. you pointed out both the isms and the jobs report. let's take the contrary to that is, if you're going to say things are going to get worse, that the market is going to come down, that's only going to happen because of a shock that we don't see right now it could be something that we see in the distance like north korea. it could be something that none of us are actually looking for think about, scott, two years ago, when china devalued its currency, and that caught a lot of people by surprise. that's the sort of exogenous, unexpected shock that you just can't see coming >> the fed could give you a shock that people don't foresee, just by simply seeing having been so late to the game and raising rates -- >> it could happen, but i doubt it's going to happen >> the fed has not been late to the game if you look at the underlying inflation data, it will tell you that the fed has ac

tomorrow, we have jpmorganom robert tip, , and oppenheimer funds. wish you could see smile on joe's face. he loves this story. we will be talking about grains. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ mark: i am mark upton. it is time for first word news. on the eve of the g 20 summit in germany, protesters have been battling police in the streets of hamburg. biggests second city has reinforcements. an estimated 100,000 protesters were expected. some of that number includes people consider to be part of europe's violent left-wing faction. belgium has already said they are looking for more than -- for at least one other suspect after rating more than half a dozen sites. however, they insist they have no information and attack is imminent and that the investigation was not linked to past attacks in paris and brussels. the prosecutor's office said in a statement that two belgians were charged with "taking part in activities of a terrorist group." the attacker who bombed the ariana grande a concert in the u.k. this past spring was not part of a large network

at oppenheimer, one analyst is encouraged by the number of synchronized runs.e is a technical analyst and he has been very, very right -- in my view at least -- over the last to give years, having a bullish view on near-term pullbacks, but this chart may suggest there could be more of a .ause -- happy 30-year season, but you have the 30-your season, but you see the s&p 500 has had a tendency to pop higher in the first up and then drop. this year we certainly have the pop. permissive says the strong he believes there could be a pairing of gains of the s&p 500 in the second half of july. it as far as what is moving on the s&p 500 today, ladders and leaders, looking at one of the laggards, ge down after the cfo said company profits, outlook for profits is likely to hit the lower end of the range. we also have colgate-palmolive trading higher, and that finally microsoft, interestingly -- they put up a debtor than expected fiscal first-quarter. -- a better-than-expected fiscal first quarter. and then finally, not a very clear risk on/risk off picture, but it probabl

chip names home depot down 5% lose down almost 7, whirlpool, 4, best buy, 4 brian nagel over at oppenheimer taking a look at these declines and saying, this has got to be over blown no >> no, it definitely is. actually, bank of america and merrill lynch looked at online multiples versus retail brick and mortar multiples that's a spread. it's never been wider. so this is obviously the consensus bet that if you sell any kind of product, you've got to figure out a relationship with amazon and good luck preserving whatever margins you thought you might maintain in your own stores and online to mario's point, this is the creation destruction impulse of capitalism. >> isn't there a lot of truth to what you said? >> yes. >> if you can't beat them, join them. >> we talked about nike. i'm not going to go crazy here nike had people selling the shoes where they were not economically benefitting resellers, it looked terrible, a sloppy mess on the page, et cetera, and eventually nike said, you know what, we're going to sell on amazon. we're going to do it our way we're going to clean up the resellers on

if you read oppenheimer, it is like a marble rolling down a chute. we have this capability it is going to be used and we have to paradigsome of our ms to make this possible. so, whether it is ironclads or if kate upstein is her or her brilliant book on the computer torpedo or drones. i would love to hear examples about paradigms being reshaped by these capabilities. and one the dented footnote because there always the dented footnotes with historians and long which, i think the language about unnecessary suffering is from the 1868 st. petersburg declaration, right? witt, hee hat to john wrote a holbrook. whole book. nobody cares about that law. anyway, thanks. i would be interested to hear your thoughts. of leaving my 19th-century jurisdiction, it's actually, and others will know better, since the drone the future of the drone is a huge threat to the paradigm for unnecessary theering, the sub rosa, unnecessary suffering will has added to the cost of using armed force, because it is hard to use armed force and not hurt other people. in the world of cn

youso the argument is, if read oppenheimer's material, marble rollinga down a chute. we have this capability. it's going to be used. to repays all of our paradigms -- repaste all of our paradigms. i love his image, to make this possible. whether it's, you know, ironclads or -- i don't know if her upstein is there, but very brilliant book on the torpedo or drones. examples thatar paradigmsou about being reshaped by these littleities and just one pedantic footnote. aboutk that's a language unnecessary suffering, actually st. petersburg declaration, right? it's before. anti-pedant tip of the hat to whit would be that he without once -- i think it's an amazing achievement he aboutoh, nobody cares that latin. anyway, thanks. i'd be interested to hear your thoughts. risk of leaving my 19th century jurisdiction, yes -- and will know better -- but threat,drone is a huge and the future of the drone in particular, is a huge threat to the paradigm that's organized unnecessary suffering, because rosa, the unnecessary added to thee has cost of using armed force, because it's very

joining us on the phone is analyst at oppenheimer brian, what happened >> well, i think you led it correctlythat early this morning o'reilly preannounced negatively the second quarter results and indicated that comp store sales in q2 track at 1.7%. the market had been looking for something 3% to 4% >> what happened >> does that -- yeah why? why aren't they selling more parts? >> well, it's no one really knows. >> somebody needs to know! i hope the management knows. >> i think even the company -- i have spoken recently with o'reilly management and spent sometime with managers of auto zone and i think it is not clear out there. we have done a lot of work in the space. i think basically it's a confluence of factors. the warm winters economic strains for lower income consumers a lack of vehicles in that sweet spot seven to nine years so it's a factors seem to be coming together right now and weighing upon sales growth within the sector. >> explains all go down and not o'reilly losing share to a company in the business because they're being more competitive on pricing but a general decline in sal

. >> the dow at a record high, the latest from john's office of oppenheimer boosting his year-end targete. why the upgrade for the s&p? we are have to say upgrading because the market is politicss the message -- geopolitics notwithstanding, the equity markets are climbing a wall of worry that they were climbing in march of 09. with central banks being able to take care of -- take it manage of global normalization, it can happen in smaller increments than many expected. as a result, we think there is later risk near-term and a bonds and an stocks, so we think stocks are likely to rise higher. earnings, we are closing in on a fourth quarter of positive earnings growth for the s&p 500. the dollar is weak or year to date. last year we thought that in the fourth quarter the dollar was overbought and bonds were oversold. we have seen rallies in bonds and dollar move lower. good move for competitiveness of u.s. multinationals, but at the same time, if we don't see the euro getting so strong, we just think the euro is -- it is -- it has moved sharply lower. people were thinking it was parity, so

oppenheimer's had technical analysis -- analyst. david?the secretary of state. secretary of state tillerson is trying to reach the risk that develops between cutter and four >> -- nation's qatar and four of its nations. qatararabia's claim that is doing too much to fund the region. alix: softness across the board and not a lot of action. financial and materials, second quarter kicking off on friday. across the board also a relatively stronger dollar since the pound really gave up his game earlier. deputy head -- trade issues between the eu and the u.k.. the 10 year yield was higher -- was lower on the day and it is now relatively unchanged as you see some of the bulls come back into the market. this is bloomberg. ♪ x this is bloomberg daybreak. coming up later on bloomberg markets, the president and cofounder of nextgen climate action. this is bloomberg. david: metlife is expanding asset management. the largest u.s. life insurer agreed to buy partners -- bringing its assets under management for outside client management for $144 billion. s

jonathan: how about the guys at oppenheimer?complete noise, but the question is a good one at this stage. this market is so extended, you are seeing some signs of exuberance. it is now hanging onto momentum and behavioral. the underlying activity is doing well, but certainly not screaming for incredible outperformance. you are more dependent -- sentiment can change on a dime. that is the classic sentence. that is how corrections all of a sudden happen, you don't know what the catalyst is until after the fact. can some of this excessive noise be a catalyst for this temporary correction? that is where we start getting worried. you need to start seeing substance, progress. as soon as the data weakens and you don't see progress on the fiscal and tensor form side, you may use some of these noises as an excuse to take profits, go home, wait for the correction. it is very much a behavioral science these days. alix: we are hearing that these days. longis,en, alessio de you are both sticking with us. coming up today at 3:00, we go live t

to talk markets mergers and acquisitions, we are joined by the chairman and ceo and president of oppenheimerjoe croft is also here the president of wells fargo investment institute and chief investment officer of wells fargo's wealth and investment management markets continue to just sort of -- >> we're back at a disconnect between fixed income and equities, aren't we? where, you know, yields continue to inch downward the yield curve continues to flatten which is typically a haitianer of a flowing economy and stocks just continue to flow -- >> what do you make of that? and what are you supposed to do about it >> i'll have to give my standard stump speech here. you're not supposed to do anything about it. you're supposed to have a long-term plan and stick with it the main reason people underperform the market, their experience is worse than what the market delivers, is because of bad timing decisions. so you know, if you had been asleep at the switch in 2008 and done nothing you'd be back to where you started from >> joe likes to say we've been asleep at the switch for a very long time in ter