brian levitt joins us from oppenheimer.come, including reporting from washington. ♪ francine: it is time for our morning must-read. el-erian from mohamed writing for "bloomberg view." majorget back to steven from hsbc. you believe an external shock could come from something happening in the markets. steven: i think that is very eloquently put, very elegantly. we would break it down into three categories. there are macroeconomic shocks, data surprises. it could be inflation, central banks and their guidance, their policies. then there are more micro and market-based and these are things that we really don't know . we can't see them, so we don't know. thinking about the amount of leverage in the system, some of the derivative products that are out there, others have spoken about etf's. i don't know that is the source of volatility. we are talking about a possible source of volatility coming from the products in the market, rather than the more macro economic growth. everyone knows volatility is low. everyone know there is lot

robert oppenheimer: we knew the world would not be the same. man: we saw this cloud of boiling dust and debris below us with its tremendous mushroom on top. beneath that was hidden the ruins of the city of hiroshima. kermit beahan: when the clouds opened up over the target of nagasaki, i let the bomb go. different man: if the announcement made by president truman that the soviet union now has the atomic bomb is true, then the impasse that now exists regarding the international control of atomic energy must be brokered for the sake of mankind and for the peace of the world. newsreel narrator: just-released film show the recent a-bomb tests in which britain joined america and russia as the third world power to possess atomic weapons. man: this first blast is on a level with bombs exploded over hiroshima and nagasaki in world war ii. now france presses forward to force her way into the exclusive nuclear club. john f. kennedy: this government has maintained the closest surveillance of the soviet military build-up on the island of cuba. the purpose

joining us is christian money from oppenheimer funds and matt --eud why is it seen as all that is goodl street? a significant amount of expectation built into the market for tax policy here at the center of initiative is typically the treasury in a typical administration. that is not the case since the nation became the -- since mnuchin became the secretary. the center of that is gary cohn. it is real. jonathan: do you think it should be moving this much. the white house has denied it at the potential direction of one policymaker. >> the movement hasn't been just because of the gary cohn story. there has been a lot going on on the geopolitical side as well as on the political side in the u.s. waitingthe market is for meaningful tax reform. he is seen as the leader of this whole initiative in the white house as well as working with the treasury secretary. that is why i think he is so important. .onathan: we have this push on one hand it is risk on if gary stays and it is risk on it been goes. what you make of it? given day, any given headline you can point to that direction -- i think w

idea of the nuclear codes has transformed the fender -- presidency itself and going back to robin oppenheimer in the manhattan -- the manhattan project in that moment changed because of the nuclear implications and now you have a person who campaigns about nuclear codes and talks about japan getting weapons and this is not a game and those who are entertained it might be fun to watch but at some point i think the electorate has asked themselves is this what is looking for because donald trump was supported with the delivery of a different result of american politics and he's shaking things up but not delivered anything and i don't know how long he can sustain his appeal to people and at some point hillary clinton going to jail can't be enough or the media is bad you have to come back to your family and pocket. >> jobs. national security. healthcare. >> i have a question before we go in there were some commentators questioning the president's mental health competency do you think is crossing the line? >> i think it crosses a line against the american psychology association recently told its me

. >> brian nagel with oppenheimer. >> positive news for the housing industry. a monthly index from the national association of home builders rose to its highest level since may. builders say they are seeing rising demand from buyers who seem ready to pay a premium for new construction. >> activity in new york nearly tripled to a three year high. the empire state manufacturing index rose thanks to new orders and shipments. hiring picked up and according to the survey factories are optimistic that conditions will continue to improve over the next six months. >> those positive reports on two key sectors of the economy -- housing and manufacturing -- were not enough to give stocks a lift. earnings results from retailers in addition to home depot capped gains. the dow jones industrial average was up five points. the nasdaq lost seven and the s&p 500 fell one. >> in washington, the nonpartisan congressional budget office reports that health care premiums will soar 20% next year if president trump ends the obamacare subsidies to insurance companies. they are expected

krishna memani of oppenheimer funds still with us.r investing in south africa, is south africa in it? >> south africa and turkey were the disappointing markets over the last two years. everything was bottoming out. even turkey has turned. i am hoping this is south africa's turn and hopefully if they can get this political issue behind them and change from a policy standpoint, i think of south africa as some really nice company that you would love to buy. alix: part of the for emerging markets is that as inflation is in check, central banks will have the room to cut and that will have the rate higher for emerging markets. what emerging markets still have that capability? >> it is across the board so you have places like india and indonesia, all sorts of places in brazil, i think the key thing is emerging-market policy went haywire in the early part of the recovery. we bottomed out in the last few years and we are in the growth phase. we are across the tipping point and emerging-market growth looks better, accelerating even without chin

oppenheimer is saying by the

the point of a like to make, and oppenheimer technical analyst made the point that the one concern tos, the stock did not put in a new high, relative to the nasdaq just recently, and that that could be a tell. with nvidia's weakness, maybe there could be more ahead. caroline: we will be talking google. ♪ mark: i am mark crumpton in new york. you're watching "bloomberg technology." president trump says if the north korea attacks guam or anyone the u.s. cares about, they should be nervous. he was responding to recent threats from north korean leader kim jong-un. president trump: he has disrespected our country greatly. he has said things that are horrific. with me, he is not getting away with it. he got away with it for a long time between him and his family. it is a whole new ballgame. mark: the president made the comments following a security briefing with top advisers. there are plans to exit the paris climate accord. they released a report that demonstrated global warming is real and getting worse. prepared by nearly 500 fighters from around the world, the report shows last year's a

oppenheimer is saying by the dip is seems to be working. oil and the energy sector.e have oil trading slightly higher up about 0.4% after a bigger than expected drawdown for oil inventories and a small build from that oil reacting favorably up for the first time in three days or it -- three days. the s&p 500 not so much. down five days in a row. streak.losing perhaps helping energy stocks. and look at some of the industrial metals. big gains for copper, zinc, nickel. dollar, just about flat, giving up some gains. we have pretty decent movers. the top percentage mover for the s&p 500 is freeport, very solid. told methese, mike, that this has to do with the strength in iron. bank -- a dramatic -- nejra: somewhere shorting the metals because of concerns of china. here is hot equities are looking around the close of as and the trading. green across the screen. germany's dax, ftse 100 hitting their highs in at least a week in today's sessions. most of these benchmarks of 0.7% 1% like ftse. by in a the fx space, dollar strength ahead of the fed a minute -- fed minutes. wea

the point i would like to make, at -- a oppenheimer technical analyst made the point that the one concernm is, the stock did not put in a new high, relative to the nasdaq just recently, and that that could be a tell. with nvidia's weakness, maybe there could be more ahead. caroline: we will be talking google. ♪ we check our phones 85 times a day. so it only made sense to create a network that keeps up. introducing xfinity mobile. it combines america's largest, most reliable 4g lte with the most wifi hotspots nationwide. saving you money wherever you check your phone. yeah, even there. see how much you can save when you choose by the gig or unlimited. call, or go to xfinitymobile.com. xfinity mobile. it's a new kind of network designed to save you money. and 1:29 a.m. in singapore. -- in sydney. angela merkel has a commanding lead with the election just six weeks away. 39% supportains with the spd at 29%. she was the first female chancellor in germany. she is europe's longest leader and is seeking a fourth term next month. we keep a close eye on germany during the election. do not miss our

joining us now is charles schwab chief strategist and oppenheimer chief strategist so jeff, as we'veeen before when it odometers north korean tensions, there is a buy the dip mentality. it is short lived. do you expect to continue to see this pattern even though what we saw overnight was a clear case lags putting japan in the threat >> it did. but you know, it's interesting the country most exposed to and in this relation to military conflict is south korea. south korean stock is down 23 basis points yesterday and finished at the highs of the session. i think this mild response is typical. i think we like -- we're likely to see more it as north korean continues to provoke the missile technology still very focused on soaring earnings earnings revisions are up 20% this year. expectations for next year's earnings up 20%. so are stocks in south korea it's really about the earnings not about the geopolitical conflict that's important for investors to keep in mind. >> john, certainly that's been the focus of investors for most of the year. obviously, the funneled. al improvement on the cor

the expectation was a rise of 1% for more, we are joined by oppenheimer managing director and aaron murphyning us on cnbc news line anna, foot locker had been pretty resill yenlt amid all of the retail pain. the ceo was on this show not too long ago saying traffic was holding up and now we see the worst comps since 2009 what happened? >> yeah. so as we're learning again and again in retail, it's never just one cut. unlike really most in retail this company has enjoyed positive traffic trends. really up until now. this is only the second quarter that they're seeing traffic decline pretty substantially and profitability of the business is such that they do need positive comps to continue to see margin expansion. they talked about some of the trends in addition to sten smith and superstar franchises now declining. but also nike's seeing some challenging trends in basketball as well and that, of course, is a big negative for them. >> are they right, erin, to blame some of these sneaker makers and releases and the reception to the releases or is there a bigger problem here that the nikes and ad

oppenheimer initiated walmart. it's one of the freshest ideas out there right now. they invested heavily in grocery. aggressively, in fact, they have all these deals where it's free shipping for minimum of $35, free two-day shipping and jet.com. >> investment in jet.com and have been in e commerce for a long time. but the real commitment came with jet.com i don't know that i'd use the expression amazon proof, but amazon has raised the level and those out there that are having success are those that are really going after amazon in an amazon way i would not just say it's walmart. i'd throw as a pitch like two weeks ago it was best buy for me had a lit to the downside. back near the 52-week highs. why? their e commerce business is competitive and will continue to be they are seeing sales, they're seeing those traffic numbers crease both at walmart and best buy. i think there are ways people want to be in the bricks and tar and if they can use e commerce, it's a win win >> is isn't it odd you just mentioned groceries and now, you start to look at amazon? now you look a

oppenheimer throws shade on these guys >> i think you stay away, scott. i'm looking at the most recent earnings report i'm trying to find something positive to say i can't find anything. they've got debt -- are they going to do it try a new lunch box. >> the irony is rich. >> lunch box business. listen, i think you stay away from this. this is very dangerous >> they got debt and losing. >> what happens in the second half >> we have to watch what happens to the currency and how much further we go in the euro and watch draghi comments and watch what happens to further downgrades to earnings division ratios falling below one the performance in the first half, not rep putable. >> do you like those that outperformed it? >> really constructive after the u.s. earnings season, good guidance and good numbers, good number of sales beats, i think we should pay attention to u.s. equitilies equitiliesties we think it's well owned but i wouldn't be selling. >> scott i was over there twice in the last two weeks. >> working. >> i saw your instagram picture. >> working. >

oppenheim partners has lost three senior traders according to people familiar with the matter.er, luke lawrence and matt bagley have left the firm. it says it is still expanding the unit. qatar airways will not invest in american airlines claiming the move no longer meets our objectives. it will continue investigating other opportunities in the united states and elsewhere. doug parker has called the proposed purchase puzzling at best and concerning at worst. tesla reports earnings after the close. trading today. intelligence says tesla's dole -- goal by the end of the year would be an enormously. the company made about 2000 vehicles per week in the second quarter. that's your business flash update. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ what should i watch? show me sports. it's so fluffy! look at that fluffy unicorn! he's so fluffy i'm gonna die! your voice is awesome. the x1 voice remote. xfinity. the future of awesome. >> from bloomberg world headquarters in midtown manhattan, this is bloomberg markets. i am julia and markets are closing in new york. the price of coffee is on

oppenheimer says this is pretty far from the course that we have seen from these events in the past.rn into buying opportunities and we do see some buying mentality today. are looking at apple, amazon and united technologies. apple, pretty remarkable, putting in a new record high for investors, getting excited i had of the release of the iphone eight. we have amazon reversing from lower to higher. a look at united technologies. we have the wall street journal reporting that united technologies is close to a deal of buying rockwell collins. taking a look next at a few stocks doing less well, the finish line and best buy. the finish line, getting pummeled, down 21% after the company pre-forecast on the downside. the worstn pace for year since 2000 seven. the light at the end of the tunnel does not seem to be happening. and best buy, talk about another remarkable reversal. the shares were higher on a beat, they did beat second-quarter estimates. ceo was cautious and now, these chairs are on their paste for the worst day since january, 20 15. lots of reversals today, including for safe h

is head ofing us institutional equity derivatives at oppenheimer and company.ve been thehing the aftermath of volatility spike we saw last week. it looks like it is short-lived, but it has changed the investing landscape and the trading landscape to some degree. what are your takeaways from what we saw happen and what happened then? >> over the last few weeks, we have been pitching the vix for the first time ever. this was a vehicle that has not made money, it has mostly been a so-called dollar bet where you are betting on fear. it is spiking more than market declines. we saw the vix went from 10 to 17 while the s&p went from a high down 2%, kind of a bear market trap where they faked them out on the decline right in time for north korea attention. as usual, these are short-lived. we are looking to sell bounces right now. julie: do you look to the vix specifically or do you look to capitalize on may be more increases in volatility coming up in a different fashion? >> we like using a combination right now. we like load exposure through the vix trades, the septem

scarlet: abigail doolittle and every wald -- ari wald of oppenheimer and company.words during president trump's working vacation in new jersey. he has taken to twitter to criticize mitch mcconnell. this is bloomberg. ♪ who knew that phones would start doing everything? entertaining us, getting us back on track and finding us dates. phones really have changed. so why hasn't the way we pay for them? introducing xfinity mobile. you only pay for data and can easily switch between pay per gig and unlimited. no one else lets you do that. see how much you can save when you choose by the gig or unlimited. call or go to xfinitymobile.com. xfinity mobile. it's a new kind of network, designed to save you money. mark: i'm mark crumpton. time for first word news. defense secretary jim mattis has sent out a warning and a call for de-escalation to north korea. the u.s. and its allies have demonstrated the capability to defend themselves in the wake of an attack. and added that pyongyang should and down in its pursuit of nuclear weapons. secretary mattis says it includes ensuring

oppenheimer funds serial and head of fixed-income.aiting a joint conference with president trump and his finnish counterpart. in fact, he has just walked out. they are going to be beginning to speak in the east room of the white house. we had earlier comments from the president in which he said trade surplus was not a good thing. president trump: it is my great honor to welcome the president to the white house. we have just concluded a very positive meeting, and i want to begin today by extending my thoughts and prayers to those affected by hurricane harvey and flooding andhe of all of the other difficulties they are currently going through in houston, in southeast texas, and now it is looking more and more like the state of louisiana will be also affected. my administration is coordinating closely with state and local authorities in texas and louisiana to save lives, so we think the first responders and all of those involved in their effort. we are working directly with texas governor greg abbott, who by the way, is doing a fantastic

. >> host: joseph oppenheimer posted on facebook. matt, the world is the most peaceful prosperous healthy, eccentrically this is coincided with the growth of capitalism, big banks, multinational companies etc. thus our united to think the little guy has been screwed? >> guest: i don't know why you asked the little guy to outthink him in the country have been, real incomes have been declining steadily since 1970. you know the inequality has grown at an enormous rate. you know the top one percent of the country is making dozens of times what it was making relative to the rest of the country even 40 or 50 years ago. and yes, if you look at overall at the level of wealth in places like china, you might see a better interleaving but in other parts of the world we have seen other phenomenons that are entirely negative like the inequality, the collapse of sovereign nations and places like africa and the have just seen less water in the world in the last 30 or 40 years. so i understand that global capitalism has resulted in a lot of progress

and if you raead oppenheimer's materials, he says it's like a marble rolling down a chute. i love john witte's image, to make this possible. so whether it's, you know, ironclads or i don't know if kate upstein is here, but her brilliant book on the torpedo or drones, i'd love to hear just examples that occur to you about paradigms being reshaped by these capabilities and just one little pedantic footnote, because there's always pedantic footnotes, i think the language about unnecessary suffering is from the 1868 st. petersburg declaration. there was a whole book about. i think it is an amazing achievement. and he says oh, nobody cares about that. anyway, thanks. i'd be interested to hear your thoughts. >> at risk of leaving my 19th century jurisdiction, the drone is a huge threat to, and the future of the drone in particular is a huge threat to the paradigm that's organized around unnecessary suffering. sub-rosa, the unnecessary t suffering, it's hard to use armed force and not hurt other people. in the world of cnn, it's going to add a little cost. but in the world of dron

the dow component walmart helping as well trading at levels not seen since april of 2015 oppenheimer initiating change. saying that the company is well-positioned for sales growth and profit recovery. snap shares hitting an all-time low at 4%. brian? >> here's what else is happening at this hour qatar airways not proceeding with investments in american airlines saying that it does not meet their objectives. >>> and there have been subpoenas issued after the bank said it sold auto insurance to hundreds of thousands of customers who didn't need it if you are both a fan of coffee and beef jerky, listen up. this one is for you and it's real starbucks new pepper night trtrh a jerky twist. it is topped off with real beef jerky. the drink is only available at the starbucks reserve roastery in seattle for a limited time. >>> all right. 1,000-point milestones are dropping like flies in the dow let's begin with the market and your money and the dow's march from 21 to 22,000. dom is going to show us how we got here dom, give us the long, hard road from 21 to 22k. >> it wasn't that long or hard

the clerk: nominations, privileged nomination, peter oppenheim to be assistant secretary for legislative and occupational affairs, occupational and health review commission, james j. sullivan to be a member. heather l. mcdoogal to be a member. department of health and human services, eleanor f. mccantz-catz to be assistant secretary, lance robinson to be assistant secretary for aging, public health service. jerome m. adams to be medical director in the regular corps of the public health service and to be surgeon general of the public health service. department of health and human services, robert c.cadlick to be medical director and to be assistant secretary for preparedness and response. mr. mcconnell: i ask consent the senate vote on the nomination en bloc without any intervening action or debate, that if confirmed the motions be considered made and laid upon the table en bloc, the president be immediately notified of the senate's action, that no further motions be in order, and that any statements relating to the nominations be principled in the record. the presiding officer: without

yesterday long lines oppenheim traffic as people made their way here. are expected to be very clear. for now back to you in new york. the time line of the moments leading up to and after totality. good morning. it's all going to begin about 90 minuts prior to the total eclipse. that's when the moon is going to start to cross the face of the sun. this is the partial eclipse and everybody in the country will see this. the moon covers 90% of the sky. it will dim and demps will drop but it's two minutes before the total eclipse that 99% of the sun is going to be blocked so you can get a really nice looking sunset and although you only see this little slither of the sun you have to be wearing your protective lenses because this is still about 10,000 times brighter than a full moon but again it's looking pretty cool out there. keep the glasses on. as you make your way closer and closer to totality, if you're in the path, you are going to see sun, something called baily's beads and these are the last spots of light through the craters. it creates in diamond ri

blue apron first quarterly report, so a lot of bulls are changing their tunes downgrading from buy oppenheimd the company is focused on capital preservation, not growth and also pointing on out that the company is seeing delivery performance issues suggesting that they are already facing problems when they try to scale up >> and you wonder if the publicity -- i know we're cnbc, but wonder if the publicity dissuades customers, too >> possible. >> struggling, better not sign up don't know and your smaller cap name is supernus pharmaceuticals sun trust raise estimates and price target it is on optimism over their anti-migrating drug. peak sales estimate to 600 million because they are adding sales reps to get it out more and also for a new launch. the target has boosted to 61 stock at 41.43 analyst says barricades at worst and 13% down side. so good risk/reward. >>> google cancel addie versity meeting in the wake of the employee fired for the memo on thtoc e piof diversity why did they pull the plug that is ahead. your insurance company won't replace the full value of your totaled new car. the

alix: also with us are brian walter -- from oppenheimer.ere were a lot of bulls. an interesting near-term bottom yesterday, on the dxy, which goes back to the spring of 2016, which coincided that with the low we hit then. so i think you could see some -- thisthe data we have seen morning on gdp. one thing you have to remember is the reason the dollar has somewhat is geopolitical, somewhat the presidential messages and so forth. but it is also the differential in economic data coming from overseas. europe has been particularly strong. near-term, you could see some strength with some significant downsides. jonathan: but those are not been captured by rate differentials. why? europe you talked about peaking earlier in may, and one of the things coinciding with that is rates moving higher in europe. you have seen the differential between the german rates and the u.s. rates close a little bit, but you have seen weakness in rates here in the u.s.. that has underpinned the fall of the dollar, and you could see bottom in rates yesterday at 2.08, st

he's doing the oppenheimer company dance and has been successful at it.ond to the canonization of a bill gross market? these are great people. gundlach is the real deal, but the punditry of a tuesday morning, how do you respond to that? mark: as far as where you want to allocate money and who is worth it. toinflection points, go back 2008 when the market was down on the order of 38% on the s&p in the year. hedge funds on average were down 15-20%. they had less downside and they captured the upside. if we are at inflection point, you will want a manager with the left hand and the right-hand to be playing of the long and short side. off-camera we were talking about the coiled springs of compressed valuations. all stocks are now at 21 times. everybody is up. we are seeing the currencies start to flameout. those are early warning signs of a late market. tom: francine? francine: john, you are quite bullish on the markets. you suggest that equity markets can rally further. if there is some kind of correction, where would it come from? i don't know if you need t

4 cent loss. 4 cents below expectations joining us is brian neagle senior research analyst from oppenheimerlet me ask you, my friend, they want me to thank -- i will thank myself when we get out of here, brian. any way, same-store sales look good what is the -- what is the outlook, it's below expectations, why? >> good morning. it's mixed so what we saw in the quarter, like you said, same-store sales are good 4.5. the street was looking for 4.3 4.5 topped that another note in the press release, they talked about in the month of july same-store sales 7.9 so they ended the quarter strong but pro forma earnings missed. if we look at guidance for 2017, they're taking earnings expe expectations down about a dime or so. it's hard to say what it is now. we'll have to wait for the conference call. i looked at results. maybe gross margins were weaker here i'm guessing a bit here. maybe they had to pay for some of that sales again. >> so you're calling the adjusted net pro forma i thought that was the 1.68. are you mixing up your terms pro forma -- the gaap number is 1.68 if you factor out the invest

the markets at this hour joining us right now is brian leff its, senior investment strategist at oppenheimerds, our guest host scott furman. good morning to both of you. >> good morning. >> you look at the earnings picture that we're living in right now against the backdrop of what's going on in north korea and everything else, and you think what about the markets? >> so what i think is that the markets are responding appropriately to a synchronized improvement in economic activity around the world now, i would like to say it was coordinated. it wasn't coordinated. it's the result of emerging markets having a weak 2015 europe having a weak couple of years, and the big major blocks in the economy are improving as a result, companies are beating on sales we haven't seen sales beats like this in a very long time, and corporate earnings look generally good not across all companies but generally look good. so when people are focusing on the geopolitical risk, the political risk, these things are always going to be out there we can look throughout history these things always exist. we always think

the ticket >> joining us right now is colin rush, managing dirctor and senior research analyst at oppenheimer buy a ticket to hell, you can't blame hell you think it will be hell or he's just trying to -- >> he enjoys a little attention. i think he wanted to make it dramatic and entertaining last night. he did he rambled on a bit we learned they still have the same targets they produced cars on schedule and they have a lot of work in front of them. >> he keeps talking about the production hell issue. last week he was talking about the s-curve in the production issue. do you think they'll be able to make the numbers i'm not talking about just next quarter or the end of this year, the real ramp over really the next 12, 18 months >> they haven't hit any production targets they sit. it's a slippery slope. what they have done is impressive despite the very aggressive targets they put out. our expectation is they'll be slow as long as they're making progress the stock continues to move higher. >> okay. what do you think this stock is worth at this point? >> we're on the sidelines from a valuation s