if you don't have the time, though, then don't overthink it.n index fund is indeed the best way to go. for more financial advice, please check out yourmoney.cnbc.com. yourmoney.cnbc.com. after the break, i'll try to save you more money. >>> coming up, ride the rotation. there's a changing of the guard happening right now in the market, and if you don't adjust, you could be left with a sinking portfolio. cramer's got the moves you need to make right now. we asked people a question, how much money do you think you'll need when you retire? then we gave each person a ribbon to show how many years that amount might last. i was trying to, like, pull it a little further. [ woman ] got me to 70 years old. i'm going to have to rethink this thing. it's hard to imagine how much we'll need for a retirement that could last 30 years or more. so maybe we need to approach things differently, if we want to be ready for a longer retirement. ♪ >>> jimmy, what's the matter with my stock? what's wrong with it? and then you fill in the name of the stock. that's what

this may sound like a really simple solution, but i don't want you to overthink it. the whole point of putting your money in a fund is to save you time and effort required to manage your own portfolio of stocks. that's why i think it's insane when people start owning multiple mutual funds. by its nature, a fund should be a diverse fund. now i know there are a lot of sector-based funds and etfs out there, but there's really no reason for home-gamers like to you have exposure to them. if you're going to take the time to play individual sectors, it would better spent picking individual stocks. you want the best one in the sector fund. the vehicles are for trading, not investing. mean etfs require rebalancing any day, and that can take a long-term toll on the long-term performance. there's some exceptions here. it's a very simple way to play gold rather than storing gold in your house or even in a bank. in general, if you're not a pro and not managing a portfolio, then individual stocks, then you probably shouldn't be fooling around with an etf either. and for etf index

. >> don't overthink about it. i just don't overthink it. it just felt right.d he said, "what about anaheim?" and i said, "i don't know. i don't live in [ bleep ] anaheim. [ laughter ] and that my friend is sports!" and we hung up. [ applause ] >> seth: that's great. >> and he sent me a text and said, "that was great. do you want to do it tomorrow?" i did that for years. >> seth: that's great. [ laughter ] >> and david lynch did the weather. >> seth: david lynch, for real, did the weather? >> that's absolutely true. >> seth: and would he do it the same way? would he do the weather? >> and that station is not on the air anymore. >> seth: what? [ laughter ] >> it's a sad story, isn't it? >> seth: yeah. >> yeah. >> seth: well, if you want to do sports and david lynch wants to do weather on the show, anytime, you're invited. we would love to have you. >> be careful what you ask for. [ laughter ] >> seth: "justified" airs tuesday at 10:00 p.m. on fx. i love the show. i'm so happy you're here. >> thank you. >> seth: we'll be right back with cristian milioti. ♪ [ chee

'cause as the writer, i was thinking of naming it dancing with ophelia-- - don't overthink this. story. boy meets girl. girl gets kidnapped by asian dictator. boy makes movie to get girl back. girl's so grateful she does birthday things to boy. boy falls asleep. - you're forgetting boy meets girl's mother.

'cause as the writer, i was thinking of naming it dancing with ophelia-- - don't overthink this. it's a classic love story. boy meets girl. girl gets kidnapped by asian dictator. boy makes movie to get girl back. girl's so grateful she does birthday things to boy. boy falls asleep. - you're forgetting boy meets girl's mother. they are creepily attracted to each other. - what does that have to do with avery and me? just stick to the story, lemon. tell it exactly how it happened. if you get this right, gay men will be dressing up like avery for halloween the next 20 years. - okay. oh, speaking of halloween, are you dressing up this year? - lemon, it's march. - 'cause i'm gonna be mitt rom-mummy. i call it. you can't steal it. - why wouldn't you be mitt-zombie? - because i'm an idiot! oh, come on, liz.

don't overthink it. bunch of people in a room that you trust and ask them to go through the steps and the website and then just ask them afterwards what happened. >> exactly. it's not that complicated. it's about changing things and testing things. you can do a.b. testing and move on from there. great. thanks so much for the help with these questions, really appreciate it. >> thank you. >>> filing taxes for your small business can be complicated, and not doing so correctly can be costly. here are five common tax mistakes you should avoid. one, not keeping track of expenses. you can't deduct what you can't document, so keep records as you go. two, avoiding the home office deduction. there's no reason not to take it. if you do qualify, you can right off a percentage of your home expenses including rent, utilities, and insurance costs. three, mixing equipment and supplies. things that you use during the year like printer paper and pens count as supplies. while equipment is usually typical of higher value it

. >> comics can overthink things. that is why they are good, sometimes. a pause there.et a better laugh. if you just deliver the line quietly, you get a big laugh. sometimes, you have to forget about that and do what does not come naturally to a lot of performers and actors. it is something you have to acquire. >> what an interesting book. i finished mine. >> it is rather dull. it is about local horsetrading. >> mine is about horses! >> i wanted to make the story something which was, although it was a tragedy that happened in her life, with her son, i wanted people to leave the cinema optimistic, in a hopeful frame of mind. for me, it was her grace and fortitude, stoicism. it was quite inspiring. >> we wish all the nominees the best of luck on sunday. it is a great honor just to be nominated. even better to win. we love the movies and will be watching. it is a night in which film honors its craft. for all of us here this evening, thanks for joining us. we will see you next time. ♪ >> the following is a paid program. >> the following is a paid presentation for focus t 25

runs and gets caught up on how do i answer every question that happened in the administration and overthinkedt like she did the iraq war in 2008, she'll have a rough road. if she rather focuses on smart answers about hard things and her future agenda and her strengths, i think a lot of this stuff will be in the weeds. she bears some responsibility for the administration's policies. she was a supporter of obamacare, of the russia policy, but she's not running as an incumbent, and we have seen as george herbert walker bush, the last person to get a third party for one term did, you have to figure a way to pivot a little bit, embrace what you support, criticize what you didn't agree with, but do it authentically. don't pick and choose based on what pollsters say. i have no doubt what she said in the california fund-raiser, as hard lined as it was, reflects her thinking. you know she is pretty hawkish on foreign policy, and i think she was under no illusions about putin but they had to deal with him because of the circumstances they found when he took office. >> i was in the administration theref

>> i think they are he's overthinking.mean by that is this president is leading and leading well. i know numbers aren't great right now but i know in his heart and in his soul he's doing what he thinks is right an that takes courage and strength. he's getting grey like me. but i think that what they need to do is support him. support him and support him strongly. he deserves it and that will bring them home and unify them and i think that will make november very, very good for democrats. >> finally, as i mentioned, you are looking at a race, you may get some primary challenges but you would like to take on governor scott. the recent numbers in florida, unemployment is way down since the governor took office. housing prices are on the upswing. what's wrong with the florida economy, assuming this will be an economic election as it will be in some states? >> that's a great question. i'm running against a man in rick scott whose company paid the largest fine for fraud in the history of the united states of america at the time.

overthink the long-term the next three have in five years is probably good.ion,eace, the this slow gradual improvement -- as opposed to the insanity. >> is there a seasonal spring housing market? isn't this when the realtors go mental? >> the spring market is the super bowl. absolutely. what you will see over the next couple of years is more pronounced seasonality. we have less external influence to the market. --a spike in interest rates. >> i know you look at the new york art. wall street bonuses came out. higher payments across a smaller group of people. what effect does that have? >> i do not know if you can prove a direct correlation. over the years, when there is an uptick in bonuses -- even if it is a smaller pool, that helps transaction activity. not only in new york city. >> one of the benefits -- new york city real estate -- was cyrpus. -- cyprus. you would rather own a house and something somebody can steal. i was wondering where the problems and the emerging markets my continue to give a list. -- life. -- lift. >> that is one of the reasons for th

does that overthink those comments?ink there is too strong of a reaction to the words that chair yellen said. i think the market was not that far from what janet had said anyway. the market expectation was for some sort of tightening probably in the third quarter. now the moved up to the second quarter. estimate nowd to what is going to happen a year or a year and a half from now. >> thank you very much. economics atfter the university of chicago school of business. >> ok, coming up, we will have more with randall. do stay with us. we will talk about the u.s. and other matters, other central bank matters around the globe. ♪ welcome back. this is "countdown." >we are backward former federal reserve governor randall ku ruznor. you are there for three years, 2006 to 2009. >> the easy years. >> the most memorable years and the fed's history for good or bad reasons. now that you have had time to ponder over those years, what were the good and bad parts? >> well, i think the good parts for the amazing work by the whole of the

. >> sniggers overthinking, that died -- i'm always hesitant to name specific dates. but by spring, early spring, april, may esch, we should have collected responses on this tough questions that i've indicated in our public notice. our goal then is to have an orderly decision and a new set of rules out before the students go back to school and the reason we want to have a good way that is because we wanted to be in effect for the 2015 program. so what we do then as we say okay for 2014, the rules are the same period in the fall of 2014, will come up with a new set of rules will govern 2015 and going forward. >> maybe one more question. [inaudible] >> go box. i do not >> i understand the point entirely. this is one of the things that we have to wrestle with. this is not set up as a block grant program. the instructions from congress are pretty clear on that. so it's not the kind of thing we can just ship it to you and you another folks figure out what you want to do with it. on the other hand, i understand entirely and agree with the need for flexibility. i've been rea

. >> you can overthink it. just make sure you are well diversified. you can take that approach.v such as this unless they want to try to get ahead? >> robert ludlum, the bogle approach, that was after the bogle -- no, that's something else. >> the borne identity was bogle. >> okay. that's something different. >> let's get back to our special guest this morning, philadelphia fed president charles plosser. we had a guy on yesterday who was really smart. peter fisher. i've seen two ways of looking at the way the fed has been accommodative but a lot of it hasn't made its way into the real economy. buffett says that makes it easier to pull back, that the balance sheet isn't that big and we don't have to worry. others point out that because banks haven't really used the money, that all that accommodation was actually self-defeating, that banks became more tight fisted about lending. because it put a cap on the terms, so they weren't able to make money with the yield curve. he thinks that it's possible as you exit that things actually loosen up for people based on the banks being more