p. morgan, others that were extraordinarily important in america development history, but all of them were in a way, broke in their backs were broken by the power of the federal government. does that have to happen again today? if there is an unethical illegal behavior in predatory conduct and things again can make sense. and examples that we're talking about. that isn't what i think was at risk. i think we certainly saw that there were financial disclosures, regulatory disclosures and public health disclosures at places like f t x and 3rd nos where the public didn't get the truth that took better enforcement didn't take new laws, but to better enforcement. the laws we have, and frankly, a broken corporate governance system. so that's what was missing, you know, is that kind of self awareness. and i think with that for his kind compliments about lessons that we pull out of our ceo's at our events. i started this program, we still have companies like like wang labs and weighing and can also in a digital equipment company. these were, you know, the, some of the biggest computer companies on

you have the s&p 500 down about half a percent right now, 3800 level on the s&p morgan has actually acted as a bit of a gravitational pull in recent weeks >> just health care is the only sector in the s&p that is higher right now. that will do it for us here for "squawk on the street. we'll turn it over to tech check. >>> happy wednesday morning, welcome to tech check. today the nasdaq is struggling to knock gains in a volatile last trading week of the year. is there opportunity in this down turn? one possibility may be apple hitting its lowest level since june of 2021, is it time to buy at a discount. plus how to play the china reopening, why one portfolio manager sees opportunity in alibaba, nvidia. but we start with the tech turmoil. no santa claus rally in sight. nasdaq falling 1.4% yesterday and now down more than 30% on the year and that is on pace to break a three year winning streak with the index's worst performance since 2008 take a look at some of the valuation declines amazon and apple losing more than $800 billion in market cap. alphabet and michrosoft and tesa not far behind

. >> looking at what we have in terms of the s&p, morgan stanley saying take into account those earnings numbers, but we have a host of other things going on right now including the markets just feeling it again, session fears, inflation concerns, that sort of thing. david: were going into the end of the year, i haven't looked at volumes today but i would bet my unhealthy liver that volumes are not there. yvonne: why is your liver so unhealthy? it's basically the holidays, we are basically hitting the snooze button when it comes to volumes as well. we are still debating about the whole path of the fed. the boj could get a bid, a little more interesting. japan, seeing some slight gains in tokyo, it really is that whole property story we are seeing in china that continues to see if there's momentum to the downside. a lot of these companies are saying stock has rallied so much, but it's sending a backlash against investors, saying support is coming, why are you still raising money? david: maybe they need to raise money to plug the hole in confidence. rishaad: it becomes a self-fulfilling pr

you have the s&p 500 down about half a percent right now, 3800 level on the s&p morgan has actually acted a gravitational pull in recent weeks >> just health care is the only sector in the s&p that is higher right now. that will do it for us here for "squawk on the street. we'll turn it over to tech check. >>> happy wednesday morning, welcome to tech check. today the nasdaq is struggling to knock gains in a volatile last trading week of the year. is there opportunity in this down turn? one possibility may be apple hitting its lowest level since june of 2021, is it time to buy at a discount. plus how to play the china reopening, why one portfolio manager sees opportunity in alibaba, nvidia. but we start with the tech

well in october, morgan stanley 's mike wilson said that the countertrend rally could take the s&p to 4,150. now that we're at about 4,000, not too far from it, so it's in the range, wilson said it could be time to take profits and for the first time in two whole years morgan stanley is upgrading chinese equities to overweight from equal weight after chinese tech stocks began vaulting on reports that covid-19 restrictions will ease. pinduoduo up 51% just this quarter, billy billy gaining about 26% and k-web the crane shares giant internet fund up 20% but why is this intense sell-off taking people's hearts and minds let's get to the floor show and somebody who knows david kelly jpmorgan chief global strategist you've got mike wilson ink across street saying take profits but what opportunity, if any, do you say this sell-off right now presents? >> well i think there's plenty of opportunities for people who can look beyond a few months into the future. first of all i actually disagree with the idea that the economic data has been that strong while the ism pmi indices came in today the se

jp morgan trading desk says the way the the market is, there's a possibility for a 10% rally in s&p 500 should cpi come and softer. our expectations are for seven point 3%. not a lot of action in other words at this moment. you are seeing s&p 500 futures hanging flat. your stocks ftse futures up 4/10 of 1%. get more calls saying the earnings futures is would be worse. oldman says that continues to hear from mike wilson. he is pivoting peered he says the market will find a new bottom in the first quarter of 2023. the bears are growing in this equity market. one place for last -- less bears is to hang saying. we are not trading as high again. it might be those cpi nerves really putting a ceiling on how much equities can rally at least before the result. manus: there is no doubt about it their initial -- there is skittishness. oil prices 20% in past month. if given back all this year's gains. there skittishness for assets. we are in for a bumpy ride. you are looking at crude up 3% yesterday. mobility, mobility, mobility. hong kong scrapping the three-day. chinese investors saying the u.s.

morgan stanley. the bottom call, the 40 400 on the s&p from morgan stanley is just about the time goal for next year sa: do you think people would use these as trading instruments and understand what the range of thought is? we just heard christian saying, if everybody thinks this will go down, it will go up. jonathan: they do not really enjoy making these gases by saying this point at the end of the calendar, this is where i think the market will be. they are trying to deemphasize the call and tell us that the bigger call is beneath the surface. sure, it has been difficult. tom: joining us with all of the rest of it. enjoying the trenches before she ended up in securities analysis. thrilled that you are with us. your optimism is extraordinary. what do you the gloom crew have wrong about buying nike shoes? >> thank you for having me on. the negative sentiment going into this quarter was all about the next three to six months. it was about inventory, the pace of china recovery. the brand is stronger than it has ever been. more distribution point, number one in every market in the world and it holds on

s&p is up by .5%. jp morgan says if you are a manager, you need to rebalance your portfolio to 50, 40 bonds. are we going to see this balancing over the next couple of weeks? s&p energy index was the best. as the s&p goes deeply negative. at one area to watch is the dollar-yen. there seems to be potential for the prime minister as well as the central bank to redo their agreement. if it does that it has the potential for the bank of japan change its yield curve policy, change to alleviate the pressure we have seen on the yen over the last couple of years. wanted to keep that in play with a lot of volatility in that. guy: there are a few things we still need to think about as we work our way towards the end of the yield. one of the things we are focusing on today is the inquisition of the price cap. within the last hour or so we have been reporting it in the last few minutes. it has been set by european energy ministers at 180 euros megawatts hours. that is lower than the commission was originally talking about. s

charles: with that in mind, morgan stanley, goldman sachs saying s&p 5,003,000. we get down there. obviously more opportunities are created under that pressure? >> listen, s&p 3,000 is another 20% down from here which then means we're down 40% off the january highs, right at 4818. that would be a really tough pill to swallow for sure. i'm not necessarily sure i'm in that camp. do i see further weakness ahead? yes i do, but i see that as an opportunity. sure if we get down to s&p 3,000 i think you have to back up the truck at that point, right? charles: right. >> because you had this massive move. listen i think some of that i think them talking their book and investment bankers. they have got these indications where the market is going to be at the end of the year, they have to justify it somehow. i think mike wilson's analysis while i appreciate him and his analysis i think it's very, very, it is too far left for me. i don't see it going that -- i don't see s&p earnings going to 1 $80 a share down from 230. i don't see it. maybe. charles: i tell people when they

and the agreement calls for the review of the 2020 p, still signed by sedans, government and rebel groups, harbor morgans in khartoum. and she says several groups in the side, sudan don't support the deal. everybody's having a different reaction to this agreement. you have the forces of freedom and change horror lucian, which described this agreement as a breakthrough, and a way for sudan to be able to get out of its political turmoil and pay boy for further talks, which is supposed to be happening in the coming days. between not just the forces of freedom and change coalition, the military, but other political parties as well. then you have the various professional associations and labor groups that have also signed on to this agreement, describing it as an opportunity for sudan to restore its transition to democracy. you also have the other forces of freedom and change coalition, the democratic coalition, which has rejected this deal from the get go describing it as an exclusion of other political parties. saying that it does not mean desperation of the political, a spectrum of sudan as well as the peo

the prime minister and the agreement cause for a review of the 2020 p steel signed by sedans, government and rebel groups. hippa, morgan reports from cotton, a new deal between sedans, military and political parties. the framework agreement aims to and the political deadlock. it allows for a new transitional government more than a year after the military deposed the previous one. has a walker hut thermo hector marlene are junior. i'm. the reality has made us all remove ourselves and our political interests and place the interests of the nation and the people above all because of god, we have a great to sit down and came up with what we're signing today. an agreement on the national issues that provide a correct and strong foundation for nation building for the transitional government will be led by civilians. not the military. a prime minister will be chosen to leave sudan for the 2 year transitional period. a sovereign counsel will manage at the office of the presidency and ministers and lawmakers will be appointed. in addition, the agreement calls for review of the 2020 piece accord, signed between but then transitio

have a morgan reports from a camp for e t a. p. refugees in neighboring sudan. these camps in east them sudan are the result of the conflict in neighboring if you're p as northern t drive, even more than 60000 refugees have cross the border since the war between in europe . yes. federal government and the rebel guy, people's liberation front or t p level started in late 2020 and it's a 100 that died. her mother and 2 children were among the 1st escape the conflict 2 years ago. but with a deal signed in november, she hopes things back home will improve so that she and her family can return. and i did my lady, my husband cross the border with us to sit down and then he returned back to who married to grade. he said he preferred being there, even if it meant his dis. he's been there since i was born in homeric integrate and i was raised there. i love my country and i want to go back and leave that with my children. the deal signed between the t p left and the european government calls for a cease fire and the disarmament of a t p l. f. federal forces will control t

market is really telling us, but you have bankers and analysts morgan stanley and goldman sachs saying, no tech companies account for 26% of the s&pket cap. why we talk about it but the tech labor footprint is much smaller less than 9% total appointment and i'm generous with definition of tech. other places saying less than 1% it's not large enough to cause a meaningful slowdown and even janet yellen, treasury secretary yesterday, "new york times" deal book says tech faced some of these out of the ordinary f factors over the last years. unprecedented boom coupled with a slowdown and massive drop in ad spending. >> thank you, kristina. >>> and november a strong month for stocks despite economic uncertainty but names that fare so well. are they worth picking up now? we'll talk about that on "three stock lunch. lor! you excited to be here? this is going to be huge. [michael] i want my daughter to have a livable world. [marquita] i just try to keep a [marquita] growth mindset. and the sky's the limit. [manish] you are capable [manish] of anything. [manish] the only limitation is [manish] in your mind. ooh, i hope you all are getting t

morgan suggesting if you get 6.9% or below, you could be seeing a 10% rally for the s&p. you saw a rally of more than 5% the previous month when the cpi data came in softer than expected. crucial as we said in the headlines in terms of the steer for rates into 2023. the markets betting you will get a cut, economists not show sure -- so sure. we have data out in the labor market in the u.k. pointing to continue tightness despite the recessionary. environment we are edging into. the german dax gaining 0.3% with inflation data holding above 11% for that economy. in france, the cac is up 0.3% and the spanish ibex is currently flat. the fed meeting also and the lead up to that when it comes to the decision, and importantly the press conference from jay powell. let's see how things are play out across assets on the context for the s&p's you see losses year to date of 16% come -- compared to 10% year-to-date on the european benchmark and again for the ftse 100. currently the futures pointing up by 0.1%, positioning tricky ahead of that cpi print. the forecast is 7.3%. the euro-d

sets still, those businesses will turn around eventually and morgan stanley is paying 3.6% yield to date. last but not least, we spoke to s&pbal last week s&p struggled this year my kind of fintech, it struggled because the biggest business is credit worthiness of bonds but if the fed stops tightening next year, the s&p global can make a major comeback everyone is giving up on this fantastic long-term growth stock i think will have a hockey stick up when we finally get near to the end of the tightening cycle. here is the bottom line. outside of the insurance industry that is boring, this is an awful year for the financials but if you think the fed will stop bringing the pain at some point in 2023 then many of these names could become tremendous performers especially wells fargo, margin ston drk -- morgan stanley. let's take calls let's go to berry. >> caller: how are you >> good, how are you >> caller: very good, thank you. i'm calling about jp morgan chase amongst all the banks, do you feel this is the best one to hold >> fantastic bank. fantastic. i saw yesterday it had just been hit and hit and hit and i think it's final

s&p down 7 dow industrials up just one point at 4:00 on wall street investors rattled over growing recession concerns interest rate increases morgan stanley chief us equity strategist wilson here has been right on this marketing predicting trouble that is what we're looking at he has news on his expectations for 2023 ahead of november november producer price index out tomorrow morning all-hands-on-deck a rise 2/10 of a percent month-over-month gain 7 1/4% year-over-year join us tomorrow morning oil prices down fourth assessing in a row things reverse there theed as well applies brent up 1 1/4% 78.90 crude oil up, as you can see, 3 1/2%, 74.51 on price of crude, worries over slowing demand had oil down earlier, it is still, bouncing off a new 2022 low this morning, up 3 1/2%, on crude, in asia overnight markets finished mostly lower hong kong big winner up better than 3 1/2%, 3 1/3% china says easing zero-covid restrictions hong kong ditching outdoor masks relaxs testing rules we are on it right now "mornings with maria" is live right now. . maria: you lawmakers both sides of the aisle slamming president biden's failed border polic

morgan stanley and goldman are doom and gloom talking s&p 3000. i don't think we can churn down here a little bit longer before we find some stability. ashley: i will take it back. kenny polcari is not all doom and gloom. you say the selloff has created some long-term opportunities but what would some of those be? >> absolutely. take a look at them. i put them in my notes this morning. biotech is a great opportunity. defense stocks are up already but that will be a place people can look. the fact the some conductor is down 40% providing a huge opportunity for specific things. nvidia is down 50% which seems not steube. i think there's opportunity there. there is certainly opportunity in consumer staples and healthcare going forward because they will provide some defense in terms of volatility in the marketplace. you have to start to look and you will see, energy stocks, fossil fuel stocks have so outperformed this year, the oil stocks have done really well so for investors to say there's no opportunity, you are not looking in the right place. ashle

p. a on these terra and valencia, which later became known as the valinda massacre. for all a morgan partner from this frederick destroyed stage is from here. good. our social studies don't oldish crimes. or felicity scribbles nurse will print that a friend epis. oh, surely she didn't have to go pitching in book when you can. yes. hello steve. oh, mr. trigger. particular for the star fish barocha willis for the or some sort of fitted or would i have to come out there where lena said he has no do from our waterloo on one hand? did you p a, was it well organized structure with a territorial division and strict hierarchy on the other fragmentation and a high level of autonomy inside the commanders of large units to press claims to lead the organization. but few were as experienced as ramayo cabbage. it wasn't long before he firmly established himself. as the commander in chief, soviet intelligence was keen to eliminate him. but he was sneaky and dodgy, and like an animal, he sense the danger, the change, the location of his h q frequently, and he's short, he has heavy personal security.

morgan, though, kill and achieving in your mind, you know, the choice to see the new username and e p i t c h a teacher to actually get a minute. i will get a minute those now but, but you can use those in the promotions. get money in those new $1000000.00. christie, or you can totally rational. sure. one, we're going to print them all from the procedure to them. you know, when you can, you start off 1st of the what much with them. and you can literally put good one, you know, problem luba when you start doing the loop you, you'll get money with tanya. in 947, ex president of the united states, herbert hoover visited west germany and rhodes. there is the illusion that the new germany can be reduced to a pastoral state. it cannot be done unless we exterminate or move $25000000.00 people out of it. it can, i mean, she has to do a planner, come down the show us was just, that's a baby like the most of you know, get mine you because i get on the college the visit. i both know or she sure needs a dog or she didn't the store a good on the must. not all that nice show. much load is we do it

s&p touching its lowest level since november we're tryingto keep in perspective, as morgan said at theop, the nasdaq and what's happened with tech, you got the china reopening, and now the cdc with the new testing of flights arriving from china to get into the country, starting on january 5th, the flights in italy, uk and france saying they're not going to institute, at least right now, covid tests so, it's all something for the market to keep a close eye on, because all the stories we talked about with apple, tesla, it's all related >> one way or the other to china. >> it didn't help yesterday in the afternoon. there's definitely been this feeling of, let's just continue to trim back on risk if you look at cyclical stocks, underperforming in this latest bout you look at, you know, more volatile or aggressive stocks, they've been underperforming obviously, nasdaq making a new relative low versus the broader s&p 500, so those trends are -- have been pretty well in place it didn't seem to me, though, that the market was saying, oh no, we fear lockdowns, we fear massive economic disruptio

p 500. that was the jp morgan prognostication. your point about services side inflation is the key.ow much do you see that continuing to percolate up and offset some of the goods disinflation we see? the fed says they've been looking at this and we will be awaiting the 10:00 a.m. hearing in the house of representatives. sam bankman-fried will not be attending because he is currently being held in a bahama court and will be indicted in the u.s. federal prosecutors came out -- come out with adam but test that indictment later this morning and he will be extradited to the u.s. what do we get in terms of what the problems are and how did they cast this? at 1 p.m., the u.s. treasury will sell $18 billion of 30 year notes. yesterday's 10 year auction was terrible. it was the worst since 2009. the rally has left a lot of people wondering whether there is still value. people demanded yields that were the -- that were relative pre-auction going back to 2009 and a breeze is russians about whether this rally has gone -- and it raises questions about whether this rally has gone too fast and too

morgan says u.s. stocks could see sharp declines in the first half of next year. s&p up. an exclusive interview with a commodities giant, we speak to cargo's outgoing ceo on the state of inflation in china. welcome. the s&p has given up a little bit of a game. what do the numbers say? guy: they are also 50. -- all sub-50. 49.0 is a headline number. economists expected 49.7. you have a prices paid number below expectations. new orders at 47 versus 49 point two. employment down from 50. soft data. alix: i thought employment was staying, below 50. how much of that is a good slowdown versus a negative slowdown? guy: we also had ism data alongside the pmi data. the pmi data are up 47.7. both lean in the same direction. let's get a take on what is happening here. tim p.r. is chair -- fiorina is that she joins us now to work our way through the data. thank you. how should we be reading these numbers? tim: you were right on in saying it is soft. at 49, we are in contraction mode for the first time in 29 months. there is a big issue around employment. demand has fallen off. we had

p 500 is on track for the worst year since the global financial crisis. you had one of the -- i always call him the wall street strategist of the year, morgan stanley's miket u.s. profits could drop to 2008, the levels we saw back in the global financial crisis. and if that means the s&p 500 could drop as low as 3,000. 32% down from here according to mike wilson. so he's saying be safe, he's recommending health care, staples, queue tilts for 2023 -- utilities. david: susan, thank you very much. and now this, small businesses who received federal loans during covid are now being asked to pay hem back. connell mcshane is with me. connell, a lot of people hoping he were going to get a break. >> reporter: yeah. timing is really tough, david, because obviously all the things we report on all the time, inflation, other economic challenges, and we're talking about loans from the small business administration, not ppp. of so it was the sba loans. sba issued about $190 million to almost 4 million small business owners and nonprofits. the terms were really favorable, service a 30-year loan, and the interest rate was under 4 or even under 3 if you're a nonprofit org

p 500 up 1.4%. the worst day. we are looking at the banking sector, under pressure. maybe some nervousness was signaled by morgan stanley's layoff and the slowing of hiring at bank of america. this is adding to concerns about economic slowdown, headwinds, and the fed that keeps hiking. let's look at the overall perspective on the market. look globally. equity indices in europe and north america and asia all under pressure. the story of dollar strength for foreign exchange. it sovereign bonds are the haven of choice. yields lower across the board. money is pulling back in quantities. ed: a lot of red on our screens. i was looking on twitter to see what people were talking about. warning signals from bank ceos. big tech was caught up in that. apple and microsoft dragging. a report on apple for later in the show. meta down. the eu is voting in favor of rules that would impact their targeted ad based platform. the bright spot is jd.com up 2%. a change in policy in china around covid. the other big story is chips. we are looking at the vip list gathered in the arizona desert to witness an unveiling of future plans fo

i'm carl quintanilla with david faber, morgan brennan has the week off some weak happens at the open and the s&points and the s&p sector is red as we got some warmer than expected gdp revisions and some cautious commentary from david tepper. >> and we are also 30 minutes into the trading session you saw the broader market and we'll give you a few stocks you're keeping an eye on this after the company reported a wider than expected quarterly loss margins as well, why hurt by declining demand micron announcing it will cut about 10% of its workforce opinion another name that is down in the early trade is carmax you may be able to surmise why quarterly profit and revenue coming in short of estimates and that stock off about 8% right now. finally, there's amc the shares are plunging this after they announced 110 million capital raise and they posed a one to ten for a stock split and we'll get into this a bit more later and shares of its preferred, eight shares are up sharply and they are selling those in part to help pay down debt and exchange for debt and the like, carl, but overall, of course, you

p right now. we came in, again, quite a few down days in a row here. the nasdaq down 33% year to date. showing signs of light any thoughts particularly as morganiven time of year we're in here >> starting to get in the short term a little stretched. think about the high we hit in the s&p 500 on the celebration of the good cpi report a week ago today. 4100 to the penny. yesterday's low, 3800, to the penny. esee, seems like the market wants to try to test to the see if this is a range we're comfortable with valuations continue to bleed out of the most expensive, popular mega cap nasdaq stocks a constant all year a bit of a weight the rest of the market found a way to stay supported lower end of the trading race. what we're figuring out now. it that something to bank on or not. >> yeah. speaking of banks, steve, shift gears a little go back to the conversation having with banking analyst a few moments ago. one of the things mentioned possibility's a credit event the non-bank lending portion of that market. certainly been getting more attention, i think, in recent days recent weeks, and then just yesterday op-ed from bill gross flagging private eq

you know, the fiscal year, it wasn't on morgan po balloons function on for continue to go and change your mind, you know, the choice to see the new username and e p i t t h s, she'll get a minute. i will log out of those good among those number which finish those in the promotions. good money in those new 1000000 dollar, christie, are you totally rational? got to she's sure we're going to print them all from the procedure. i'm wanting to know when you can use those channels for shows to watch much more than pulse and you can still put your one, you know, pro la labor or when you started doing the prepare to book was either you pretty all your money stuff that was done, you're in 1947, ex president of the united states. herbert hoover visited west germany and wrote, there is the illusion that the new germany can be reduced to a pastoral state. it cannot be done unless we exterminate or moved $25000000.00 people out of it. it can. i mean just go chest at the oblong now and then the show us was just that's her baby luck. most of these teacher remind me because i go home the college to visit. i both know or should show at the new model of use of dog

p 500 future session is up .3%. futures almost 3%. only to end the day up less than 1%. morgantanley says we are still nowhere close to pricing in china reopening in this market. a lot of hesitation as covid cases continue to rise in china. yields also came in a lot more than initially. the initial drop was something like 20 basis points. euro-dollar hits a few months hi. 106 is where we are currently trading with that. all the beta currencies did better versus the dollar. it was soft no matter how you diced it. nymex crude is down at 75 barrels a dollar. and we had opec downgrade their forecast. let's get to our reporters from around the world. the fed decision, all of the drama in ftx and we are going to talk opec and oil demand. the latest u.s. cpi reading showed that inflation is accelerating in the world's largest economy. let's get more on that with mark cranfield. does this cpi change things for the fed? >> i don't think it does. the bottom line is inflation is still running at 7% which is too high. joe biden says prices still need to come down and he was the one that pu

p 500 since 2008 >> yeah. thank you. >>> all right. still to come here on "techcheck," more on microsoft as morgan stanley names it a top pick this morningrst check out the top ga gainers on the nasdaq 100. "techcheck" back in two minutes. thinkorswim® by td ameritrade is more than a trading platform. it's an entire trading experience. with innovation that lets you customize interfaces, charts and orders to your style of trading. personalized education to expand your perspective. and a dedicated trade desk of expert-level support. that will push you to be even better. and just might change how you trade—forever. because once you experience thinkorswim® by td ameritrade ♪♪♪ there's no going back. get refunds.com powered by innovation refunds can help your business get a payroll tax refund, even if you got ppp and it only takes eight minutes to qualify. i went on their website, uploaded everything, and i was blown away by what they could do. getrefunds.com has helped businesses get over a billion dollars and we can help your business too. qualify your business for a big refund in eight minutes. go to getrefunds.com to get started. powered

this is from the chief equity strategist for morgan stanley, mike wilson, warning about the outlook for corporate profits because this chart looks at the s&pversus the projected earnings per share, and it does show perhaps that stocks are not reflecting the outlook for corporate profits, and they could really be damaged next year as we see pressure voting on margins, more weakness as well, and that slump and earnings morgan stanley says could match what we saw during the 2008 financial crisis. >> what other warnings are coming through with the warnings for equities? >> a lot of investors think the stresses we saw in markets and 2022 basically are not going away as we approach 20 23, so basically that doesn't mean we could see further losses for stocks in 2023. as we spoke about the earnings risk, but also the outlook for inflation, that could be sticky on the way down with recession risks present from central bank tightening, so a cautious outlook basically. take a look at this terminal chart. we have seen that reflected in u.s. stocks outlook in the given that we're seeing the s&p 500 closed at the 200 day moving average, but it is seen a

morgan reports from a camp for refugees in the neighboring c dawn. these camps in east them, sudan are the result of the conflict in neighboring if you're p as northern t. great region, more than 60000 refugees have cross the border since the war between if u. p. s. federal government and the rebels, the people's liberation front are left started in late 202900. that died. her mother and 2 children were among the 1st to escape the conflict 2 years ago. but with a deal signed in november, she hopes things back home will improve so that she and her family can return. on due to my lady, my husband cross the border with us to sudan and then he returned back to who married to gray. he said he preferred being there, even if it meant his dis. he's been there since i was born in who married in t. great, and i was raised, i love my country and i want to go back and leave that with my children. i'm not from what i'm of them. she the deal find between the t p left and the if you can, government calls for a cease fire. and the disarmament of a t p l. f. federal forces will control the regents, airports and other major facilities. they agreements also paved the w

morgan po, balloons function, lots of continue to will for one looking though kill and shooting and get a minute. chose to see the new username and e p i t c h a t h s. you actually get a minute. i will log out of those good ammonia those number, but you can use those in the promotions. good ammonia in those new toy, christiane, you can actually show one, we're going to print out a little from the procedure to to know when you can use those channels for shows to watch much mental. and you can go on, you to no pro la labor all we started doing the property or to book was did you put your money on stuff that we've done? you're in 1947, ex president of the united states. herbert hoover visited west germany and wrote there is the illusion that the new germany can be reduced to a pastoral state. it cannot be done unless we exterminate or move $25000000.00 people out of it. it can, i mean, just go chest at the atlanta. now and then the show us, which is better luck. most of these things are not gonna remind me because i'm going to college the bazaar both know or should sure. anthony ma globally, it's a dog achieving the store. a good only

morgan o. lee, something on of continue to roseville for one logan dough. kill and shooting your mind, you know, the chose to see the new username and e p i t c h s, she'll get a minute up. the car will log out. it was remind me of those number, but those in the promotion is good money in those new $1000000.00 christiane. you know, but i sure sure 11 of the printer really is all from procedure to know when you can use to know for sure. what am i going? and you can see if we could warn you, no problem. luba we still need to live up was you? you'll get money from something. when you're in 947, ex president of the united states, herbert hoover visited west germany and rhodes. there is the illusion that the new germany can be reduced to a pastoral state. it cannot be done unless we exterminate or move $25000000.00 people out of it. it can. i mean, she has to do a planner. and then the show us was just that's a baby like the most on the stage and i get a minute because i'm going to college the visit. i both know or should show that you may need some dog or she need in the store a good on the must and not all the new show much, nor is we do i

morgan. oh, need something on of continue to bill for one mortgage though, kill and achieving in your mind, you know the choice to see the new username and e p that i teach. teach teachers to actually get a minute to log out. it was good among those number, but those in the promotions. good money in those new $1000000.00, christie. i don't know, but i sure sure. one we're going to print them all from the procedure to them. i know you can use to know for sure what it was with them. and you can see if we could warn you, no problem. luba. we started doing the pre libra was you. you'll get money on your in 947, ex president of the united states, herbert hoover visited west germany and rose. there is the illusion that the new germany can be reduced to a pastoral state. it cannot be done unless we exterminate or move $25000000.00 people out of it. it can. i'm sure that the atlanta condemned the show us was just, that's a baby like the most on the stage. and i get a minute because i get on the college the visit or should show him a globe need some dog or she need the store a good on the must and not all the new show much, nor is we do it sure bite.

morgan po, balloons function, lots of continue to roseville for fun. looking though, kill and achieving in your mind, you're not a choice to see the new username and e p i t c h, a teacher should get a minute. i will log out of those in among those number, but you can use those in the promotions. good a minute. those new will of which i told her christiana kept other brushwood characters, shaw, bloodwork, dental and putting it on the books. are y'all is also not practica booster. uh huh . you know, when you can use those channels for sure, was already much more than though. and you can see if we can warn you to napoleon la labor or we started doing the pre, i tell people who are you has a pretty good one. you started with tanya. in 1947, ex president of the united states, herbert hoover visited west germany and wrote, there is the illusion that the new germany can be reduced to a pastoral state. it cannot be done unless we exterminate or move $25000000.00 people out of it. it can, i mean, she has to do a planner. and then the show us was just that's like the most on the stage and i get a minute because i get a new college visit. i both know or should

seen a big rotation, look at how much the s&p outperformed the nasdaq since mid-october and it is substantial. and you think about this mike wilson at morgan stanley thinks that value stocks, had' rally, he thought we would see a 15% rally and now he thinks that value is a pocket of risk. and that is energies and financials and industrials and so we've seen it crowding in that if you think that we're going to have some sort of recessionary environment, and maybinge that what some of the readings about industrial commodities are saying to us then you have to be careful here because the rotations have been fairly aggressive. it is one of the reasons that we havethe bear market rallies. some between 15% and nearly 20%. so to me i think the higher we go, i doent think we'll go much higher, but the lower we go in january and february. >> so one of things that we've been keying on and you could debate whether or not the yield curve is as much of a recession indicator as it has been in the past but just in the last two days we saw a yield curve inversion, short-term rates higher than long-term rates, two 10 spreads of minus 83 basis points going

morgan stanley. margin earnings estimates. a couple of things going on here. we are waiting on the fed and the s&p is up, but energy is quite interesting, it had been the biggest outperformer half an hour ago but then we got the inventory number and we saw this and or miss bill for barrels of oil. this contrasts with the outlook for next year that is quite a list. they see in production coming down a bit, real push and pull in the energy market. also idiosyncratic, and i urge you to watch this space, bank of japan officials see the possibility of a policy review next year. do they abandon the yield curve control that can meaningfully help to support the curve in the market? talking about the fed and how we have positioned into it, equities are going nowhere despite the bond auction yesterday not being so great. two year yield, down by five points. guy: gary gensler making news now, we will come back to talk about that in a moment, but sweeping changes, apparently. pricing, improving. sonali basak will be with us to give us an update shortly but let's talk more now about what's happening with the i

p 500 up 1.4%. risk off. the nasdaq off by two percentage points. we are looking at the banking sector, under pressure. maybe some nervousness was signaled by morgan stanley's 2000 person layoff and the slowing of hiring at bank of america. the warnings coming from the goldman sachs ceo. this is adding to concerns about economic slowdown, headwinds, and the fed that keeps hiking. let's look at the overall perspective on the market. i don't just want to shine a light on stocks. equity indices in europe and north america and asia all under pressure. foreign exchange the story of dollar strength. dollar index up 3/10 of a percent. sovereign bonds are the haven of choice. yields lower across the board. seeing money pulling back in that particular space as we see a global slowdown. ed: a lot of red on our screens. i was looking on twitter to see what people were talking about. less about fed and inflation. more about warning signals from bank ceos. big tech was caught up in that. apple and microsoft dragging. a big part of that of course a report on apple we will come into later in the show. meta down. the eu is voting in favor of rules that would impa

p, i hope that the coming months bring stability. but those in refugee camps outside the country say they'll wait to see if the deal holds and things improve before they can return home. he, bill morgan, al jazeera, glad if east them sedan from the war and ukraine to the tightly contested mid term elections. us president joe biden is face some challenges in 2022 white house correspondent, kimberly how could reports? 3022 began with a major stress test of president joe biden foreign policy. russia's invasion of ukraine as the united states join nato allies and condemning the attack. lead by president vladimir putin bided. went a step further, sending billiards to the cranium, military and imposing sanctions. on the kremlin, who is the aggressor prudent jose this war? and now he in this country will bear the consequences. but americans also pay to price. u. s. ban on russian energy imports drove fuel and food prices way up. the record 40 year high inflation for the bite and white house to tap into the countries all reserves to temporarily bring down fuel costs. believe me, i understand the frustration in july with fuel prices. it record highs wide and travel to the middle east to meet

i'm carl quintanilla, morgan brennan has the morning off. dow is up almost 350, s&p 3850 as well.fedex adding to optimism about corporate results. >> without a doubt we're 30 minutes in the trading session. three movers we're keeping an eye on we'll sftart etsy, up over 5%. a bullish call on the stock late yesterday, but doesn't appear to be having an effect today. it sees etsy and amazon as the stocks to own. check out the cruises lines getting a boost after carnival posted a smaller than expected quarterly loss we'll end with starbucks that got a downgrade over jeffries it's now a hold. it had been a buy. citing a potential pullback in consumer discretionary spending. shares are down fractionally >>> nike raising its revenue forecast, stock enjoying the best reaction to earnings in about 20 years joining us this morning, oppenheimer's brian nagel has a buy rating inventory is the lead the morning. does it deserve to be? >> this was an absolutely fantastic report from nike what it shows is, and this is why the stock is bouncing so significantly today, despite the macro concerns,

p 500 crossing the flat line 62 times. taking a look at airbnb right now. that stock is in the red. down more than 2%. morganngrading airbnb to under weight from equal weight. that's basically a sell rating. the firm sent slowing growth enlistings and lower room night demand. morgan stanley also cutting the price target to 80 bucks. separately wolf research cut the travel sector as a whole to under weight for market weight due to a potential downturn in demand next year. despite the record number of travelers this quarter and last, wolf cut expedia and trip advisor to sell and booking holdings to a hold. revenge travel, but never mind that. okay, taking a look at shares of campbells soup right now hitting a two and a half year high, the prego pasta sauce maker is raising full year sales and profit forecast. campbells citing easing supply chain issues and demand for its products even as it jacks up prices to offset the inflation. it faces campbell also beating on the top and bottom lines in the first quarter, up almost 6%. its been a volatile day of trading for carvana. the used car sellers been halted for vo

morgan great stuff as always. let's get to our top gainers on the s&p before we take you to a quick break.ings and state street topping also right fo ♪ ♪ i've got a plan to which i'm sticking. ♪ ♪ my doc wrote me the script. ♪ ♪ box came by mail. ♪ ♪ showed up on friday. ♪ ♪ i screened with cologuard and did it my way! ♪ cologuard is a one-of-a kind way to screen for colon cancer that's effective and non-invasive. it's for people 45 plus at average risk, not high risk. false positive and negative results may occur. ask your provider for cologuard. ♪ (group) i did it my way! ♪ did you know one of nissan's evs survived the north pole? ♪ and one can go 0-60 in 2.8 seconds... ♪ and they're all emission free. but don't get an ev for the “e”... ♪ get it because it pins you to your seat... ♪ sparks your imagination... and takes your breath away... nissan evs aren't just electric, they electrify you. ♪ >>> still ahead on "tech check," mongode shares rising after that profit we'll talk about what it means with their ceo in about five minutes. the dow is up 150. >>> as we close out the hour, you can

morgan has a hedged equity fund. there is a huge call option with a strike price that we blew through. the idea is that a 1% move in the s&pould prompt option dealers to buy or sell stocks to the tune of $2 billion. she says it could increase to $4 billion next week. the upside moves and the downside likely see today will have a lot more impact as we go. nevertheless we typically see higher equities as we head into the holiday trading week. they call it the santa claus rally. it does not seem like we will get that now. the differences you did not want to take on a lot of risk, but you do not want to sit on crack -- cash. you have news trickling through like micron for example. still ahead, the lifeand legacy of guggenheim's investment chief, on his trumpet -- tragic with -- death on wednesday. this is bloomberg. ♪ alix: this is "bloomberg markets ." guggenheim partners chief investment officer scott, regarded as one of the bond kings of the 21st century has died at age 63. she joins me to discuss his legacy. what happened? what do we know? guest: he died while working out at his home at rancho santa fe, yesterday afternoon

morgan reports from a camp for refugees and they. busy being sedan, these camps in east him sudan are the result of the conflict in neighboring if you're p as northern t drive, even more than 60000 refugees have cross the border since the war between in europe, his federal government and the rebels, the gray people's liberation front are left started in late 2021 and the guy her mother and 2 children were among the 1st escaped the conflict 2 years ago. but with a deal signed in november, she hopes things back home will improve so that she and her family can return to my lady. my husband cross the border with us to sudan and then he returned back to who married to grey. he said he preferred being there, even if it meant his dis, has been there since i was born in who married in t. great and i was raised. i love my country and i want to go back and live with my children. the deal signed between the t p a left and the philippine government calls for a cease fire and the disarmament of a t. p l. f. federal forces will control the regents airports and other major facilities. the agreement also paved the way for 8 to reach to guy where 2 years

the best performing s&p 500 materials name and on pace for its fifth positive year in six so the big question now is what's going to happen in 2023 some analysts are divided. morgantanley believes machine and construction offer a good entry point since margins are underperforming the market average. they increased their price target on caterpillar and also on cummings, so these are the two names on your screen right here, and on the flip side, deutsche bank believes industrial names have not cut in recession, so they're avoiding names like illinois' tools works and terrex >> that just highlights again the big dispersion between those who feel like we can hang in there with those stocks and those who think the worst is to come thank you. and thanks everybody for tuning in that does it for the exchange today. ahead on "power lunch," three big names are about tareport next week and we'll get the trade on nike, fedex, and micron "power lunch" starts right now >> welcome to "power lunch." i'm jon fortt in for tyler mathisen here's what's ahead. breakdown or breakout. the nasdaq hit hard this week, but do the charts signal a bottom is near when you look at the technica

would love to get your take -- we mentioned this with cramer morgan stanley saying it's difficult for us to follow the logic of the changes to the s&ped inconsistent our strategists turned neutral on all their trades and will re-evaluate in january did you think yesterday was more confusing than most? >> i didn't find it confusing in the sense they brought down their growth outlook, raised their inflation outlook, raised their unemployment outlook and increased their fed funds outlook. i think all of that was consistent there is just two different theories of inflation rolling around there the market has it rolling over with recession, perhaps. the fed doesn't necessarily have a recession built in, has very weak growth. but they have it coming down as a result -- or they see the need for rates to go considerably higher what i thought was not confusing but remarkable was the unanimity. 17 of 19 folks over 5%, 7 of them over 5.4% this is a fed right now means business for next year when it comes to raising rates >> indeed. bank of england, 6 to 3. a lot more uniformity on the fmoc, as you mentioned thanks, steve liesman, as we're tryi