have some charges that will do that, one way is to look at the relationship between the equal-weight s&pnd the actual weight s&p that's simply a line that depicts one thing divided by another. if we put the moving average in, and you'll see in the next iteration, that this current circumstance, this overdone to the downside, was seen at the finish at the crisis low and covid low so this is a very extreme reading, and what typically will happen from here, if things are okay, is that this starts to bounce final chart of the three. those arrows there, and that -- that's a judgment, of course, mind that you want to very much be in either an equal weighting a fwat s&p, rsv versus spy than simply staying in the s&p and riding these very extended names >> earlier in june when carter had originally noted the beginnings what have we just outlined michael laid equal weight etfs and they didn't fought one firmly in the green. mike, are you updating this one? >> yeah. i think we need to i mean, first of all the trade that we recommended where the july 145 calls are now comfortably in the money i thi

dow, s&p and nasdaq seeing strong gains. august of last year. fed kicks off its 2-day meeting -- ♪ ♪ larry: hello, folks, welcome to "kudlow." i'm larry kudlow. l

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liz: you know, i've really got both eyes on the s&p 500. we are less than half a point away, folks, from exiting the bear market. alan, i'm pulling up some of the leaders and the laggards on the s&p 500 -- [laughter] you know, it's kind of interesting that you see when you're talking about some of the leaders e at this point, we have tesla charging higher. there's a big headline about the cyber truck and how many will roll off the assembly line. we'll be talking about that later, but it's a report from electric. that stock is up more than 3%. that is certainly a win for the s&p. too dangerous for you? what do you like? >> we think it's gotten ahead of itself similar to system of these other stocks. all the dogs from last year have now become darlings, and look at what's leading the s&p 500 this year. you have such a small cadre of to names that are leading the index higher and so many other names particularly in system of those industries and sectors that are slower growth when you look at energy, financials, that really are not benefiting f

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without a new high 15 times when you go at least a year without a 52-week higher, one week later the s&p highs now that's bullish we would be a buyer of weakness. >> you're throwing a lot of stuff at me. do you think new highs on the s&p in terms of all-time high are in the cards >> yeah, we do absolutely. we're not that far away with where this rally is going. we think before this year is over it's possible with the news we keep having, the consumer is strong, inflation is down -- i mean, there's worries. >> what do you mean? you don't sound like you have any worries. >> i have some worries we're stretched near term. the worries globally and some of the concerns my biggest worry is this, people still are not embracing this new bull market. i know people say up 20% is a new bull market. i think a lot of people are still underinvested. we see the near term potential worries. look at what the market is telling us high beta is outperforming low beta a new high is likely this year in our opinion. >> we shall see. we'll have you back to debate you on that. ryan, thank you. >> thank you. >>> w

the s&p at its longest rally in a year and a half. stick here kicking you off to the close. a sixth straight day of gains for the s&p. a streak that has pushed the benchmark back above 4400. back above its key moving averages and now back into overbought territory. as the rally sustainable iago about 80% of the s&p higher on the day. set up the 11 sectors in the green. at least three dozen stocks at

500 or equally s&p 500 >> equal s&p 500 is actually down a lot more so the problem is those ten companies take up that 26% of the s&p 500 right now, which is the problem, and those valuations are getting extremely stressed, so i'd go more towards an equal weight because you're going to get more exposure to the things that are underperforming. >> that gets to the point of, do you see this rally, market broadening >> when you have a lack of breath in the marketplace either the rest of the market falls -- or those top eight to ten stocks crater as well or the others catch up or maybe sometimes you get a little bit of both i think you probably get a little bit of both i think you're probably going to see expansion. everyone was calling for the end of earnings, basically 8% to 10% or 15% or 20% earnings decline. that didn't happen you can continue the wait for -- i think these are all cyclical things eventually we're going to have a recession. it is now? is it put off? were we in a recession last year, and some of the gain of the energy sector masked the recession? recessions are only in full

abigail: it really does to -- seem to be translating into a sellout s&p five -- s&p 500 down .6%.he week as well. and the nasdaq 100 down more than 1%. and nvidia with the ai move coming out, we see it down more than one points -- 1.5% today. this is a big chart at first glance but it is an important one. here is the year to date rain the s&p 500 recently broke out of its range. both of the indexes are below the 10 day moving average. the russell 2010 day moving average breaking down the s&p 500 below its 10 day having average. the russell 2000 it seems to go back to the bottom of its range. it is not clear what kind of decline is ahead for the s&p 500 but i would say 5-10%. this may be a bearish chart, but overall sideways. we have a rally for bonds and yields with two year yield and 10 year yield. the bloomberg dollar -- dollar index .4% up. and gold is higher pointing to the haven aspect of today's trading. and commodities are down for another day in the row. what i want to point out is on the year on the s&p 500 it is up more than 10% of the bloomberg commodity index down more

dish is actually not only going out of the s&p 500, it's actually going into the s&p small cap 600. it's not even going into the midcap index there's a very predictable effect that happens. this was announced on june 2nd this is known as the s&p effect. in addition going into the edition tends to increase the price of the stock this is predictable. palo alto is up 12% since the announcement dish is down a little bit. the other thing that happens is this the day when all the index funds, for example, funds indexed to the s&p 500, ishares, vanguard, state street and others will put their buybacks in they're essentially rebalancing. throughout the quarter, companies have announced buybacks the usual suspects are here that have been reducing their share counts, apple, alphabet, chevron, berkshire, exxon, meta. they have been traditionally reducing share counts. the only note one is nvidia. what happens at the quarter, at the end of the day, the index funds will be reducing their share count of those that have been reducing their shares and adding to it this should not really result in an

the s&p is now out performing. this is the euro stocks, the s&p 500 of europe.cks have exploded to the upside everybody, mike has been talking about it where tech is going and now europe, which has had great year, is under performing by 1 or 2 percentage points to the s&p 500. the sectors today here, you see the usual groups performing well energy starting to move a little bit. banks are having a little bit of a problem today on regulatory talk and there's tech which is flatish. it's been up and down throughout the morning. just look at the s&p 500 movers. you can see most of the time you still have the big cap tech names, apple, alphabet, moving it a few small discretionary names and walmart has been a stalwart as well. the chatter about new regulations for banks increasing capital requirements weighing on the regional banks today that's not surprising. we were waiting for those comment to come out. what's remarkable, the s&p 500, less than 1% from a 52-week high the old high 4305 on august 16th so you think, my gosh, we're going to have an explosion of new hig

s&p equally. small cap, and i definitely think that's where the second half you're going to see returns i don't think people are going to abandon per se what took them to the party but those seven names, the s&p, you know, 10, is not what's going to take you home for the party. it's the s&p 490 that will. >> yeah, you know, also too, scott, you've been talking about gdp. we could have an economy that's getting 1% to 2% gdp growth. i'm assuming that's in the second half of the year so maybe recession is off the table , but -- >> we've been talking about normalization. we spoke months ago when everyone said are we having a soft landing or hard landing and normalize back to 2% gdp and also interest rates maybe with a 4.5-5.5 ceiling instead of free money every everywhere which caused the inflation so that takes time to work through and we saw the economic numbers this morning. they are still strong. so all "the talk" about recession and slowdown it's taking time to filter through. it's doing it slowl

s&p is lower the s&p is fighting to hold on to gains and notching the first full week win streak sincemarkets, let's bring in patrick fruzzetti from hightower. >> good morning, frank. >> what do you make of the futures? thes s nasdaq dipping positive. the s&p in the red after it moved higher yesterday what do you make of all this >> this is a fragile market. entire return has been driven by seven stocks in the s&p. the rest of the market has been flat i think that say sign of the fragile market and we have many things to think about in the months ahead not only $1$1 trillion of u.s. treasury, but weakening consumer. >> i want to talk about student loan payments. they will restart soon the average payment is $300 a person you have seen data and staff that may be higher it is an increase in money that people have to pay out and student loan payers are 20 to 30 to 40 and 50 what sectors do you see student loan being repaid having an impact >> sure. i'm avoiding, you know, consumer discretionary stocks that are expensive right now. lululemon or canadian goose. names like that face a lot of

the inverse of every week for the last two or three month, which is to say the top 50 index, top 50 s&p was down. and then up, but only slightly, was the oex, the top 100, up 25 basis points the s&p, 500, up 39 basis points the midcap up 147 and the russell up almost 200, the exact reverse pattern we've seen week after week with the larger you are, the more you've outperformed so finally, some participation from laggers but let's look at a chart or two. the firstchart we have is the s&p 500, what's so important is how precise today's high was relative to the august high, in fact they're within pennies as you can see, and we hit our head there, and closed poorly, for all intents and purposes the second iteration puts in some lines to sort of depict the circumstance, and the issue is do we press above the august high or do we actually check back towards that up trend line? i think check back is what's likely and looking at the vix, what's important here is the vix is almost undone, all of its excess associated with covid. you can see that there, the line, horizontal line drawn along the b

and guy has been talking about this a lot he's seen a lot of the performance in the s&p 500 is really multiple expansion. so, we've quoted where the s&p is trading, 19 timetimes, which above the five and ten-year averages, down there near 18 so, something's got to give between where the fed is br bribr bringing interest rates and where valuations are trading, so, i think this is a real sli interesting chart. and i think it could be the key to how stocks perform in the second half of the year when we have better clarity on inflation, where interest rates are going to go or stay, and really something's got to give with the stock market. >> yeah. something's got to give, meaning stocks have to come down >> or, you just see -- yes, i mean, i think that's probably it >> tim, do you think that's how something gives in this scenario >> i do. and i would point to a chart that's all about rates, as well, and i agree that real rates are way too low, s&p should not be trading at a forward multiple above where it was trading p pre-covid. so, dan's chart, liz young's chart, all great stuff i would

you have the s&p 7 if you say ai, your stock goes up 20% then you have the s&p 400 which has a little tailwind. the stock market frankly is exhibiting signs of mania where you have ace of the market driving the entire train. it leads to a valuation which is pretty scary with an inverted yield curve and the fed raising interest rates the s&p 500 has a pe of 19 on a forward earnings basis if the economy weakens, those forward earnings are greatly exaggerated. the s&p 500 is really overvalued you have nvidia up over 400% year to date i'm going to say that's a lot. there are stocks like that leading the train. this is feeling like the lead-up into january 4, 2022 in terms of the action of the s&p 500. there's been a lot of -- you know, there were a lot of shorts there was a lot of pessimism we've had the type of retracement you would expect to call this a new bull market is pushing it with the s&p 500 at 19 times forward earnings. >> i'm just going off what technically they suggest we've been having debates every day as to -- >> you're telling me pacwest stock is in a bull market? >> your

the three sectors out performing the s&p which are the ones you mentioned as well. think, you know, going forward, the trend you have to respect is up. you will see more moderation we see the equal weighted s&p which is up 4% or 5% this year the largest under per fformancei the last 40 years. >> keith, before we let you go, the worst sector out there right now? >> we still are underweight financials and it will be a challenging time with the slowdown in the economy and rates today. >> keith lerner from truist. thank you. that does it for us on "worldwide exchange. "squawk box" is next see you tomorrow what if you could make analyzing a big bank's data... no big deal? go on... well, what if you partner with ibm and red hat, use a hybrid cloud solution to connect data across clouds, then analyze all that data with watson. okay, but this needs to meet our... security standards? yup. compliance standards? mm-hmm. so they get the insights they need... yup. in real time... check. ...to make quick decisions? check. aaaand check. that's the solution ibm and a global bank cre

year's the rally may be data from the cftc shows hedge hundred funds and other investors bet big on the s&p will fall it is the most bearish position for hedge funds and other investors since back in 2007 while the s&p is up 11.5% this year, it would be negative without the boost by big tech companies leaving the markets vulnerable to a pull back with shares of one or two companies start to decline for more on this, let's bring in lindsey bell lindsey, great to see you. >> great to be here. >> let's talk about it right now. the broader markets. what is your view on the broader markets? are you concerned we may see an a.i. tech bubble that could burst and break the s&p? a quarter of the main index is big tech >> this has been talked about ad nauseam the last several weeks and months i know you mentioned bearish sentiment from the pros of the what we saw is the greatest inflow into tech equities the last week all year long. this is concerning it comes at a point where tech valuations look stretched on both the p.e. basis and ppp.e.g where i think it was positive, we saw an expansion into othe

the top 50 index, top 50 s&p was down up but only slightly was the oex. then the s&p 500, up 39 basis points you keep going the midcap up 147 and the russell, small cap, up almost 200. that is the exact reverse pattern we've seen week after week with the larger you are, the more you've outperformed finally, participation from laggards the first chart is the s&p 500 what's so important is how precise today's high was relative to the august high. in fact, they're within pennies as you can see we hit our head there and closed poorly for all intents and purposes the second iteration puts in lines to sort of depict the circumstance and the issue is do we press above the august high or do we check back towards the up trend line. i think check back is what's li likely secondly, let's look at the vix. the vix is almost undone all of its excess associated with it. you can see there the horizontal line drawn we're almost back to a level we were in the autumn of 2019 a surge in the vix associaterd with that. >> mike, what's your take on these charts and the markets >

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s&p.lling going on in treasuries but not by much. the dollar -- bloomberg dollar index of 1241 and oil, we see crude coming up $.84. that is pretty amazing considering we had up cut of one million barrels a day from saudi arabia. >> a reporter has been speaking to a lot of traders and we will wait to see how that plays out because oil is off his best lows of the day and with the energy complex, -- you have in my chevron that is negative. we are watching a company getting a bio bid from unitedhealth and in technology, a lot of focus on palo alto networks, they join the s&p 500 so that name getting a lift and we have been watching the reaction at the apple event. we are seeing intel shares down 3.5% and apple holding gains on the day and they are up $184. mark: we watch -- matt: we will watch the apple story and apple ceo tim started the worldwide developers conference. >> we are going to make some of our biggest announcements ever at wwdc. we will talk about the future of our incredible sof

we start off with a winning end to a banner first half the nasdaq and s&p 500 jumping more than 1% today, both indseeds at the highest closes since april of last year the dow up 221 point, shy of its high of the year the nasdaq locking in its best first half since 1993 rallying 2% since january 1st 2023 eased nasdaq 100 leader so far, chip-maker nvidia surging 189% and meta platforms up almost 140% and tesla also more than doubling. then, of course, there's apple, the iphone-maker hitting a record high for a seventh day in a row and closing with a market cap of over $3 trillion for the first time shares are up almost 50% so far this year. so as we gear up for the second half, how much juice is left in this market rally, karen i think this is sort of the real that defies many, many, many people's expectations given the concerns about a recession, rising rate and, of course, bank crisis that we saw in marnaz. >> right it is sort of amazing. if you had known that okay we're going to start rising, and we'll be really aggressive and we'll be higher than you think and higher than what the expe

the supply chain of the materials and equipment required by p s m. c to manufacturer a way, 1st comes from the us, japan, you as a truck, it's useless to just have to wait for fat and equipment. so china will not be able to get the high end wafers, and the chinese economy will be in k us. they've china snatched as t as mc. china will not have access to high end chips, as we'll just talk about in the economy will be in this the way you mentioned about plans, the plans in arizona test. and she's also in talks with all sorts here in germany about the potential plans here as well, in andres than what's behind that strategy from t s. m. c, you're going to branching out into the states. and here in your of all this standards is to develop an international business model to maintain as leading position in the world in the next 10 to 20 years. and they have to meet the requirements for customers in um, different places. one of the reasons why ts m c decided to set up plans in the us or um, maybe in the germany in the future is because of that. many of the ch

do you sell it today because the s&p is having such a good day? at the moment we do have the s&p higher by about 1.5 the % or 50 points. -- 1.25. >> i would say, yeah, ache some profits when the market is speculative. why? i want to pivot to places where i can earn a big dividend. why? they heal volatility, and i think there's plenty the of volatility to come. liz: we just saw advanced auto parts cut its dividend. maybe that's a one-time situation, but i remember what happened at the lockdowns. all these companies either suspended or cut their dividends dramatically. >> buy a quality dividend. buy a costco, or tremendous bottom line. go buy a caterpillar, john deere. i'm not worried about those staple dividends. advanced auto is a potential company. poor management, cash flow for years has been contracting and margins that fell apart when their competitors didn't. liz: what's your long trade? >> well, i'm really watching right now a lot of the softs, a lot of the commodities and things like that because some of them are down 5-7% -- liz: which ones

it was, like, 95% of the s&p 500's return was just ten stocks i get it if you own the s&p as an etf,cause you're making money regardless, but man. that's got to be extreme, extreme narrowness does that worry you autt all, ad is there opportunity on the other side buy stuff low and sell it high. >> everyone has been talking about breadth, and breadth has been catching up to the other, you know, those magnificent seven, magnificent eight what we did more recrently, we upgraded it back to neutral at the beginning of the month, and a lot of the average stock was reflecting some of the concerns, you know, we were as far as the fed and some of the weakness we've seen in the economy. what we did in our portfolios is we actually added to the equal-weighted s&p we have the large multi-cap s&p, and then as far as a sector strategy, we also upgraded industrials a couple of weeks ago, and look at that sector it's make a 52-week high it has some good, secular tail winds as far as defense and infrastructure spending. i think there's rotation longer term for tech, and we have been overweight since

inverse of every week for the last two or three months, which is to say the top 50 index, the top 50 s&p was down and then up but only slightly was the oex, the top 2,500 then the s&p 500, up 39 days points and you keep going the midcap was up 147, then the russell up almost 200. that's the exact reverse pattern we've seen week after week the larger you are, the more you've outperformed some finally participation from laggards. the first chart we have is the s&p 500. what's so important is how precise today's high was relative to the august high. in fact, they're within pennies, as you can see, and we hit our head there and closed poorly, for all intents and purposes. second chart puts in a line to depict the circle do we press above the august high or check back towards that uptrend line i think checkback is what's likely finally, let's look at the vix what's important here is the vix is almost undone all of its excess associated with covid you can see that there, the line, horizontal line drawn on the bottom we're almost back to the level we were in the autumn of 2019 before this surge

in ai, broadcom's the name. >> i'm looking at the market, the internals here of the sectors for the s&pighs of the day on the dow, so we're 33,978, approaching the 34,000 round number and the s&p is still holding above 4300 at 4317 you know, weiss, the further this market starts to advance the harder it's going to be for the bears to stand their ground, so to speak. >> yeah. that's for sure. i look at the style like adobe that i owned in the past i actually bought a little bit of it last week, and not enough to matter one way or the other and it's up another 4% after that wild move last week so, yeah it gets more difficult if you're on the sidelines and you have to account for performance, relative performance to say, hey, here's why i'm still doing it, but ultimately, you know, i don't think the world's changed all that much. the market momentum. >> big contribution from intel today up 5% for the dow jones being -- >> people look for the next adobe and the next one and they think it can be intel. >> so we'll see what happens over the final few hours here and i'll see you in "the closin

we do have a hazy picture for some of the major indices, specifically the s&p and the nasdaq. it is a tech-driven selloff for the nasdaq which right now is down 133. for the s&p, a close of 9 points or higher is what stands between the broader index and the bear market exit door. we're not there at the moment. we had been earlier though. the s&p right now down is 11 points, had been higher by 15. all right, let's talk about netflix. netflix had been on a tear after jpmorgan hiked its end of 2024 price target to $470, and look at it right now. it had been up about 4%, now it's up just half a percent. now, here's what jpmorgan said, they're optimistic the streamer's crackdown on password sharing could really boost revenue, but if you rook at the intraday chart -- look at the intraday chart, shares hit a high right at the open and just hours later you see the selloff. that may be because "the wall street journal" reports at this point amazon's plan to launch an ad-support tier for its prime video streaming service is coming. amazon may be down 4% but, of course, the fear that inve

s&p better by 6 points -- 64 points. nasdaq up 140. the sprinting higher at the moment by 11.7% after the at leisure retailer raised guidance due to strong sales many china and lower freight costs. l are ulu's planning to open 30-35 stores this year, most of hem in china. lower air freight is boosting the product margins specifically. now, lulu's results set off a race in the at leisure section, many stocks running higher. nike, under armour hour, they're all up, dick's sporting goods having a decent day, up 1.5%. under armour better by 5%. amazon now officially saying a bloomberg report about possible wireless plan offerings in the prime store not true. the report sent a, the and, the, verizon and mobile shares diving, but now an amazon spokesperson told fox business, quote, while we were always looking and exploring to add more benefits for prime members, we do not have plans to add wireless at this time. no wonder all of these sell you lahr carriers started to drop. they get nest when a big behemoth like amazon might enter their spa

2.9% and about half of the s&p is down this year, about 50% of the s&p is down with the s&p up 12%. a third of the s&p is actually in bear market territory. this is how topsy turvy things are and people kept saying at the conference the head of the exchanges we're at new highs but doesn't feel like it necessarily. the hope is we'll broaden out. we are broader this week we don't want tech doing all the leadership retail was up this week, metals and mining up, industrials up, tech flat. consumer staples and health care generally flat this is a cyclical thing this is the hope for a fed will stop hiking, flation will calm down and the market will broaden out. this is exactly why indexing has won. this is why vogel and vanguard have became famous don't try to pick the winners and losers stay with the broad market if you own the s&p 500 this year you're great if you're long cyclicals and short technology stocks, you're trying to pick sectors you're having a difficult time. again, carl, this is why indexing has won out back to you. >> tried and true. thanks, bob pisani >>> nvidia meantime r

the dow and s&p up 2.5%. the nasdaq, running away, at 11% on a quarter-to-date basis this is a good quarter so far for stocks it is a similar story for the first half of the year the nasdaq is up nearly 30%. that is its best first half since 1983 s&p notches a strong six months up 14.5% best first half since 2018 remember last year was a terrible year for the stock market we are working off a low base. checking the bond market yields are trending higher continue to move higher this morning. the 10-year treasury is a hair below 3.89%. the 2-year treasury is 4.93% the 30-year treasury is 3.93%. in energy, a tough quarter for crude oil prices you see wti benchmark price up 1% $71.50 that $70 level is something we have been watching for some time ice brent crude is $75.19. up 1% as well. remember, wti is on pace for the second negative quarter in a row. brent is facing losses both down 13% so far this year as you see here. oil prices have been under pressure >>> let's check on the top corporate stories with silva

look at s&p -- today. s&p equal weighted i underperforming the s&p by 5 basis points that is something that jus continues to act i continuance. so, the script is in place i have said, i think, cute three could be a flat tonigh of quarter, but on the other side of that, you have the meg cap put that is in place and that's going to leave market to resume the overall positive trend of 23. >> see, the only way the bulls can stay in control, some woul suggest, is for the ones lagging sectors to continue to do well. how, otherwise, can the ball stay in control? everything else can lag an tech is just going to carry th day? as you continue to see multipl expansions of mega cap equities >> how long can that last? >> i understand. listen, logically, you would say to yourself, not muc longer but how high is high and how low is low that's a question that you never want to ask yourself whe you are training or investing. so, fed is still - whether it's the chair himself bowman, or waller overnight wa obviously hawkish.

so let's zoom out to the s&p 500's longer term monthly chart.nt triggers to watch going forward. first, the average continues to slope upward all right. got that estimate. the s&p has now made four consecutive monthly closes above this level, above this line, which is bullish in and of itself you need this to have a bull market just as important, you want that 12-month moving average to be sloping upward tells you we're steadily moving in the right direction got that at the moment, it is starting to slope upward but that needs to continue for her to keep having confidence in the rally and for me to have confidence, by the way take a look at the convergence d line at the bottom this is down here, okay? this is a crucial momentum indicator that can help technicians spot changes in a securities trajectory before they happen. specifically right now it is waiting for what's known as a bullish cost we're so close we're so close right here where the black line goes above the red line we talked about this before because it is one of the reliable positiv

instead the nasdaq down to the s&p, does the s&p and other sectors have to rally to the nasdaq?oning chip. tom: it takes us back to your frankly genius question last week about bad breadth. is that starting to change? anastasia is suggesting that the money locked up in the nasdaq for a safe haven trade is starting to broaden. it is also taking profits in some parts of the tech sector. the next catalyst -- the data comes out today -- alix has been pointing out that equities are driving higher the session -- is that the market betting that the june pauses baked in? anastasia: yes, the market is definitely betting on that. a big part of the reason is you could argue it either way, but it feels like the fed is committed to pausing at this point. fed chair powell mentioned that we have done so much in such a short period of time that it makes sense for us to assess what has been done today. we are looking at the inflation data and the fact that core pc is sticky. i think the fed would go ahead and hike. they have flagged that they are willing to be more patient. that is what gives th

come to us to resolve the impass so that the p p. s team is always the media can proceed to get you as planned, as well as be able to cover at least the ship legs off the piece tools, as well as both both of the trip. we do be deeply disturbed by the experience they've gone through. and we, i engage in of what is called applies to see to each, to that situation. the keys are the 3rd day of the things i also in petersburg inside. so these are the form has been done in a rush as an old and capital. today's a pleasant recession will be attended by russian present by them and put them on c has been providing exclusive coverage of a rush as the biggest event the the, the, the, the, is working in the think of the action of, of 4 of them for us as close a live down to him to see how things are in other russian nolan capital union. the russian president is expected to sleep late to the day i believe. and i believe you've also got somebody with you a very special guess. good afternoon, indeed, wrapped us from russia's northern capital as that h

p. s who was supposed to go ahead of the president. you. busy and others center russia for pay for the advocacy submission, the published direct them to confiscate the width instead of being carried by the security here. they also strip searched a member of the presidential protection services. someone who holds a different. busy if possible, that's a never happened before in all the as a several by the p. s. this is now a different method route. you'll see some of the, of the contingency here in the plane. we'll try to show you some of the other seats uh, just behind you know, since some of the security forces will obviously not allowed to show their faces. they've agreed to, to cover that up. but this is where we've been. busy for the last 3 days, take a look out the window. you'll see that the, we're actually in the condo section of the airport terminal. this is where we've been stuck in. it's not clear if we wrote this in bucket, we made this in bar state over here or we may didn't find a way to rush. i need to do so with the commercial

the nasdaq is the big winner the s&p's best first half. we have a lot to work with inflation continues to fall. i'm so glad that we have lebed and weiss on together because your views -- >> that's one of us, by the way. >> -- are so opposed i'm going to give the ball to jim first. not that your positioning was so perfect but your call has been good now what >> so i'm sticking with the call steve has a different opinion but it's not like he's an idiot. it's not there's rationality to the thesis of 500 basis points of rate hikes should have a dramatic effect. there's rationality to the idea that the yield curve is a predictor. however, there are other perspectives and my perspective, scott and viewers, has always come from the point of view of what the companies are saying. it doesn't mean they're always right. companies pretty much across the board are saying things look good maybe not so much in retail. think about what the airlines are saying, casinos, steel companies. the companies see a more positive outlook, scott, than the macro econo

down but if you look at the breath metrics, 76% of the s&p 500 is up on the day there is this ambiguitye market some time to trade here. if the s&p is able to stay above 4200, you see cyclicals start to build support and rally, not at the expense of the recent winners. if they're both able to go up together, that would be a clear signal to reduce that exposure we're willing to give the view the benefit of the doubt reality is when we have a macro level on the technical signaling, that doesn't look good i can't explain why the market's been so sticky and why it's rallying, when you look at things like the yield curve, the economic data, all of those things don't point to a rosie period in the months ahead. >> how many days do you need you technicians are pretty specific you look at things i think in rather absolute terms. how many days of this broadening out of the rally would be enough to say, okay, that's confirmation for me and now i am backing off my earlier projections. >> i always like to use a broader brush. we happen to look across all four of the major asset classes and have a b

the nasdaq and s&p 500 snapping six-day winning streaks. dow shedding over 100 points still, a good week for stocks. nasdaq, longest winning streak in four years. the s&p seeing its best week since march. the dow also seeing solid gains as a springtime market rally brought in beyond big tech the dow's big winners, intel, up 16%. its best week since 2009 nike, amgen, cisco, all in the green. is the market breath a good sign for investors? tim, do you think that lasts >> i think it is there are people arguing there's not a lot of breadth but we have had over the last eight or nine sessions, all participating. the financials struggled a bit more you see names like cisco, look at mega cap tech, and there are names that underperformed in that space cisco certainly one of them. it's interesting because now we look at the nasdaq up, i see, 30% from that svb bottom we're talking about an extraordinary month run we have had. it's also, when you think about this week, the ecb sounded more hawkish than our fed it's a week where inflation was pretty tam

where we stand on futures, indicate ago decline, the dow industrials down 72, nasdaq down 3 and-a-half, s&p 500 lower by 5 and three quarters, the s&p 500 officially entering a bull market. here's markets for the week, the nasdaq on pace for the first down week in seven weeks. for the week the dow industrials up a quarter percent, nasdaq down a fraction, s&p 500 higher by a quarter percent on the week. european markets this morning look like this, take a look at you're row zone, ft 100 right now with a decline of 21, cac quarante down 16 and dax index lower by 39. in asia overnight green across the board, china's producer prices plunging by the largest amount in seven years. the shanghai composite and hang seng up fractionally overnight. joining the conversation all morning long this morning, o'leary ventures chairman l wonderful himself, kevin owe ley is here and strategist jonathan madison. "mornings with maria" is live right now. all right, president trump says he has been ordered to appear in a miami federal court next week. the biden department of justice informing trump's lawyers that

the s&p up 3%, 40% of the s&p is down for the year.adership what's moving the markets? today's cpi very important, the bottom line is inflation is still high, but declining. the fed pauses likely. earnings have stopped going down in fact for 2023, they are rising slightly and they're going up for 2024 which is what a lot of people are looking at now, the 2024 earnings estimates. overall the important thing, the pain trade, what would cause discomfort to the greatest number of traders is higher and you can see this looking at the bofa global fund manager survey. every month surveys 140, 150 global fund managers, what it's found today they're still underweight the market even with the s&p at a new high. most global fund managers are underweight stocks and very long bonds. what this means is, the potential for people who have to go back in cash levels, 5.1%, that is lower but still very high it was 6% the prior month. a little bit better here the most crowded trade, everybody is in big tech that means there's room for things to move aroun

real estate, utilities have the worst performing group as for the individual names of the s&p, seeingest returns since august, netflix third place, nvidia and royal caribbean are neck and neck for the best s&p stock in that time. and royal caribbean, without any help from ai let's get to tyler mathisen now. >> judge cannon, a trump appointee, is assigned to overseeing the president's federal indictment, according to two nbc sources familiar with the case abc news was the first to report that development trump appointed cannon to the bench in 2020. if the former president is convicted on the seven federal charges he's facing in a classified documents probe, it could mean cannon would be responsible for his sentencing >>> joe biden is visiting the recently renamed ft. liberty today in north carolina to sign a military executive order to bolster job opportunities for military and veteran spouses who often see their careers jeopardized by their loved one's deployments. this comes one week after the former ft. bragg shed its confederate name >>> two nasa astronauts stepped outside the inte

the longest bear market in the s&p in decades coming to a close. and walsh asset management i don't know if the market knows we use base 10, i don't know if it knows that 20% is a round number i don't know if any of that matters. is this significant that it's gotten to that number or is it still possibly just a reflection rally testing the high end, the upper end of a range that's going to continue? >> i mean, there's been a party in the stock market this year, joe, but only seven companies were invited for the other 493 companies in the s&p 500 to receive their evariet e-vite to the party, we're going to need comfort that any potential recessionary period will be relatively short and shallow and then we'll see more breadth in this market recovery and we'll know we're in a true bull market rally that has more sustainability >> are we at the end of this rate hiking cycle? >> my mantra is hike in may, go away i -- the federal reserve has told us they were going to continue to raise interest rates and shrink the size of their balance sheet until someth

the s&p 500 hovering just above the flat line. another one of those days where it's the nasdaq stocks that are keeping the broader s&p around the flat line. you do see weakness in things like regional banks, another 3% down small caps suffering, but this a familiar pattern it's the big growth stocks hanging things together. >>> topping the tape, what else but technology apple at an all-time high this morning. nasdaq is on pace for the best first half of a year since 1991. even the s&p is on the verge of entering a bull market, led by tech nvidia, meta, amazon, the magnificent seven as b of a called them last week. the argument on friday, mike, was leadership is beginning to broaden. >> we saw hints of that. that friday move was definitely macro driven you got the good jobs number this idea we have good economic news combined with a potential fed pause of rate hikes was enough for the rest of the market to do catch-up. not following through today. we mentioned banks giving back half of friday's gain. you have the big growth stocks s

the s&p 500 has been rising all day. the dow up more than 700 points at the highs as well, and the s&p not far from its august, 2022 peak which would be the peak for the last 13 months or so in a crucial shift, the rallies also move beyond the handful of big tech favorites as small caps, energy, and cyclical stocks which of course, pack the dow are playing some catchup which brings us so our talk of the table. have the market bowls and economic optimists earned back the benefit of the doubt or is this as good as it gets for now? let's bring in cameron dawson to talk about this. >> thank you >> welcome the jobs nucmber today, certainl strong, but enough slowdown internally to make people think the soft landing is not out of the question the fed's told us that perhaps they're willing to skip with the strong skipper rate hike, and we have the tech leadership and maybe it's starting to broaden out. what's wrong with this picture >> it's encouraging that for the first day in a really long time that the rally isn't just a handf

if you look at the equal-weighted s&p, treasuries -- two-year treasuries out performed, and you have the return on the s&p less than 3% last week, and i don't know that he has been that wrong. he has been wrong not picking, as i have, those seven stocks that had a tremendous move, but in terms of the broad market, no, the market has not been bullish. everybody can tell the story they want. >> what is the story you are telling as we enter the second half >> i do believe there is a going to be a recession. i do believe there's a good chance of the global recession we saw the german pmi numbers, and that's what the fed needs to get their game in order. inflation has been stubborn at this level >> what does it mean for the second half of stocks if you think we are going to have a recession? is 20% to 30% -- >> i don't think we will -- i don't think he is saying we will get there, but he's saying based on the numbers it's over valued. >> he said using market based implied capital -- >> correct but it doesn't necessarily mean we will get there. if you take the normal pe in the market and wh

earlier apple did help boost the s&p 500 to at 9-month high. o finish up 10.07 points to exit the bear market. right now we're down 6 of.7 -- 6.79 points. the s&p 500 entered a bear market on june 13th of 2022. hit the bear market low on october 12th of 2022. and here we are up 19% from that point. nasdaq hitting a new 52-week high earlier today before turning negative. the tech-heavy index's big winner on the session, palo alto networks. that stock is on the move to the upside because, here's the news, it's going to replace dish networks in the s&p 500 effective june toth -- 20th. so you have palo alto up nearly 5%, dish reversing, down the 2.6%. investors are also digesting a fresh piece of data that anticipates a slight cooling in the services sector. the ism non-manufacturing index expanded at a slower pace than expected, and its prices paid come appropriate, this is an indication of inflation, it actually fell to its lowest level in more than three years. but do not forget the may waiver report showed major -- labor report showed 339,000 jo

we have the dow and s&p up fra frac fractionally. >> adobe is leading the s&p.hey beat expected ratings the ceo telling jim cramer the ai offerings will make people more productive. >>> can delta hit the sweet 16 remarkable run they're up 27% in a month. carnival also up more than 20% this week, having its best week since november 2020. no real driver this week >> kelly, thank you. >>> two major visits to china representing two poles of u.s. china relations. business and politics. bill gates meeting with president xi who called him the first american friend he met this year. although gates is not the only business giant to visit the country. another key meeting this weekend ahead of secretary of state blinken. tensions between washington and beijing remain high. here with the details of those visits and some back drop is eunice yoon. >> reporter: the fact that the president had to tell gates that he's the first american friend that president xi has met this year shows you how unusual this meeting was in this time of heightened tension this was the highest level,

jonathan: equities on the s&p 500 shaping up as follows. on the s&p, we look like this. we are positive 0.08%. more than positive on the year. the s&p 500 off the lows of october up 20%. you will wake up to headlines about bull market, narrow leadership. month to date in june some of the small caps, the russell, picking up the slack. the russell down 0.1%. for the month of june up around 7% or so. let's see if that continues and whether this equity market rally this year begins to broaden. tom: that is the distinction, the small-cap move. for me, it is a new conversation. it is not a bank conversation. jonathan: will it continue? this is what bank of america were looking for more of. apple is bigger than the russell 2000, which is something we are thinking about. the two-year, 10-year, 30- year looking like this. yields going lower. federal reserve on wednesday, good luck. 4,55 on the 2-year. i want to finish on the euro. suggesting we have had two consecutive quarters of negative growth. many call that recession but i do not have time for that debate. no growth in europe