this is the first virus chemistry which correlates with influenza, epidemics and pandemics the chemistry of rapid replication. this is what we search. we look at all of the published data and here's an example of what we see in influenza virus, for instance, you'll see that there are several genes listed, pb2, pb1, et cetera. each of these genes is examined for the accession numbers which is shown in blue, and those accession numbers are detailed sequences, protein and dna sequences, of that particular strain of influenza, which is actually isolated from a nasal swab or elsewhere in body secretions and the sequence is published and this is terribly important. i want to emphasize this now and at the end. very important for the governmental organizations and public health organizations to get those sequences out. there are people now who can read them. and tell you back what's coming. this is the kind of sequence that one sees. this is an example of the hemogluin in the gene. and for those of you who are not familiar of amino acids in peptide sequences and protein sequences and you see the

pandemics. as i said, i'm not going to hazard any prediction because influenza is inherently unpredictable. come to the issue of the mortal patterns that we are seeing. again, as hospitalizations we are seeing an unusual distribution of mortality. i want to underscore that is distribution of mortality. i don't want to -- e don't want any of you to walk away saying we know we are having more death inaggregate than we would have in these age groups with seasonal influenza but look at the total numb boefr deaths and which age groups they fall into. this is not a pattern that we see with typical seasonal influenza. there is as i said a striking reduction in the elderly population. this is a slide from mexico comparing h1n1 distribution of mortality. again not absolute numbers but the distribution of mortality with the last two seasonan -- seasonal flu years the last two flu years are the white and blue bars and show the typical pattern of seasonal influenza mortality roughly 90% of the mortality is observed in the people who are 65 and older and a large portion of the rest of the mortality is o

have been encouraging all countries in the americas to prepare national pandemic plans while the focus initially was avian influenza and there was a strong eckert cultural health and so on we did see from the start this was not just a heah issue and so from the start it was conceptualize the pandemic would be an emergency or disaster like eve and which would be jointly handled between the people involved in surveillance and epidemiologynd health services but also the disaster relevant and the experience has shown this to be true. paho mobilized 1 million tama flew to the contras a provided aid to protective gear to all the countries from different sources and have mobilized the count is now up to 100 technical advisers moved from one country to the next as the epidemic spad from country to country. at the moment, things seem to have stabized but there are ongoing activities in argentina, chile, uruguay. we are actually anticipated the second wave of the pandemic as it is nowinter in the southern and we are interested to see what effect ts would have on the capture and success of the pandemic. we are also has john s

pandemic? the great influenza in a nutshell. the deadly pandemic started two to three years early than 1918n january 1916, epidemic influenza hit 22 states, but it was described as a mild illness. by december 1917, the disease, still mild, spread throughout camp kearney, california and other army camps. 115,000 people died. through mid spring and early summer, the mild epidemic went through western europe, china, india, and the philippine islands and it struck spain and the west indees. in early march, the epidemic resembled the typical flu, affecting the sick and elderly and healthier people recovered easily. in august, when the second wave began in france, sierra lee i don't know, and the united states, the virus mutated into a deadlier form. when the pandemic ended in 1920, up to 100 million people had died worldwide, and another 400 million people had gotten sick t has been called the greatest medical holocaust in history, comparable to the black death, and that's the great influenza in a nutshell. here's why i'm talking abou

white house homeland security council and was a principal author of a national strategy for pandemic influenza implementation plans. he previously served as a senior medical adviser in the health and human services' emergency preparedness office where he worked on of wide range of issues including the delivery of vaccines to urban populations. also the role of modeling in the form of public policy. he completed his undergraduate and medical education and vanderbilt university, an internship and residency at new york hospital, cornell, and at the duke university medical center. as you can see, we are in very good hands. we are extremely fortunate that have him with us today. i give you dr. richard hatchett. [applause] >> karen, thank you for that very kind introduction and tank -- and thank you to fema and the deputy administrator to inviting me -- for inviting me to address you on this important topic. unfortunately this is the only part of this conference that i have been able to attend. it looks like a fabulous conference. i have been to the annual conference on a couple of occasions in the

. >> the world is now at the spot of the 2009 influenza pandemic. >> reporter: in june, the world health organization declared swine flu a pandemic. countries around the world have been rushing to produce vaccines. nch>> it's a slow process, and vaccine capacity is very limited. so it's hard to make a lot of it quickly. unfortunately, over the years, fewer and fewer companies have been making influenza vaccine. >> reporter: then there's the question of safety. medical authorities in england urged heightened awareness among neurologists of a rare brain disorder once mass vaccinations are under way. a vaccine administered in the u.s. in the '70s was blamed for cases of paralysis. medical experts say the only way to know if there is a rare adverse effect is to vac sin ate millions of people. since the trials began two weeks ago, no short term effects have been identified. adding the cdc commonly tors people who have been vaccinated and can halt a vaccine if something goes wrong. and you may see fewer schools closing this fall. the cdc recently relaxed guidelines, saying local officials are

pandemic? the great i influenza. in january 1915 and 1916 edemi epidemic influenza hit. d it spread throughout camp0 peoe kerney california. sg the mild epidemic gained strength as it passed through western europe, china, india e and the philippine islands. it struck greece, sweden, and switzerland, spain and west indies and even the arctic. the epidemic resembled typical flu epidemics affecting mostlyy the sick and elderly. in august, when the second wavi began in france, sierra leone and the united states it was ao deadlier form. form. when it ended in 1920, up to 100 million people died worldwide and anotherlion peo 400 million had gotten sick. it has been called the greatesc medical holocaust in history,i comparable to the black deatheh and that is the great influenza in a nut shell. good they are not even asking, the doctor will say should i bes tested for swine flu? no, don't worry about it. what, it's getting worse. have you ever heard of chickenpox parties when you get the kids together? because of the history of great influenza, i considered a chickenpox party,

there's been a lot of focus over the past five years especially on planning for a possible pandemic of influenza. the concern was originally over avian flu, but it's applicable to influenza across the board. a lot of eort has gone into planning so we're in much better shape than we would have been. however, there's still a number of potential gaps, including unknowns about how well the health care system could handle a surge, a surge in intensive care unit admissions or emergency room admissions. a lot of concern about the stress on the health care system. and as dr. vigilance mentioned, how well we can continue services when a significant number of people are ill. >> i want to talk more about that and other topics as well around swine flu or the h1n1 virus, including when this vaccine might be available when we come back on "viewpoint." >>> welcome back to "viewpoint" this sunday morning. our topic again preparing for the swine flu, h1n1 virus. the virus, we have learned from the cdc and the presidential panel this week could end up causing symptoms in 60 to 120 million people. some staggering

pandemic which should not be awesome, but it is. >> the great flu. in 1918, the outbreak of an unknown influenzas caused the loss of 40 million lives. later, this was called the spanish flu. now you are the leader of the world pandemic control and a new pandemic has happened. it's up to you to prevent the serious threat to the world population. fight the outbreak of a dreadful virus and even try to prevent it. assign research teams to infected areas. distribute anti-viral. close schools and markets and finally, find a vaccine. the fate of the world depends on you. >> that's how it starts. you start the game by choosing a virus. the deadler the virus, the more difficult the game. the broadway virus is apparently the worst one. you have a budget, policy options like distributing face masks, stock piling vaccines, research teams to infected areas. you are forced to make strategic decisions. sometimes your decisions backfire and you decide to close down all the airports in china. the chinese government can refuse to go along with you. news headlines pop-up reporting the latest on new outbreaks aroun

that is what i am going to talk about today in the context of thinking about h1n1 influenza, the unfolding pandemic that we have been observing for several months and that we have anticipated will result in increased illness and unfortunately death in our communities in the weeks to come. at the national security staff, i belong to something called the resilience directorate, a new directorate within the national security apparatus that focuses on preparedness and response to disasters. in this case, public health crises. resilience has been a but what -- buzz word for several years now, but it is not necessarily something that is easily defined. we talk about it a lot. we tried to foster it. we hope to augment it, but we often do not have a terrifically clear idea of what we are talking about. i want to just start my remarks by referring to an attended definition by the director of the center for earthquake engineering research at the state university of new york in buffalo. he has devised a nice frame work talking about resiliency. he talks about robustness as the ability to withstand stress with

they say pandemic h1n1 is the predominant circulating strain of flu influenza in both northern and southern, we have seen how colleges and universities are trying to get ahead of swine flu encouraging students to get shots and spreading awareness across campus. apart from prevention, we are all being urged to take precaution. you know the big one. stay home from work or school if you are sick. schools can shut down. what about offices, factories, stores, tv networks? joining me to talk about the business end, andrew kataldo, a lawyer and adviser to big employers. your interest isn't just personal. your daughter you think has h1n1. >>> my daughter called me to say she had a 103 degree fever an a professional had diagnosed her with basically h1n1. it is not confirmed. she has been holed up with antivirals and unable to go to class so is it hit home. >> who i ironic. here you are advising companies. seriously, this has been something. the number one concern, even among all of us, because a few of us have been under the weather lately. we can't call in. this is the type of job where we could ge

. >> the h1n1 influenza has a possibility for causing severe pandem pandemic. i'm interested in doing anything i can to protect my family, the patients, and the general public health. >> nathan stein agrees. >> well, like any shots, you could have pain, redness, what we're hearing is at least those symptoms seem to be going away within the first couple of days. but there is the possibility, a rare possibility of having severe allergic reaction, as well. parents are being asked to sign informed consent saying they acknowledge the possibility of these side effects. take a look at this map here, 11 sites around the country, 9 states, this is where the trial's undergoing with a hope a vaccine will be developed by october. they're testing all sorts of things, including the two dose vaccine. they're also looking at how h1n1 vaccine does as compared to the seasonal flu vaccine, at least in terms of safety. back to you. >> all right. >>> well, years ago in the fight against the taliban, that's what the defense secretary is saying about the mission in afghanistan. that

. >> the h1n1 influenza has the potential to cause a severe pandemic. like with any shot, people have been complaining with redness, soreness at the site. most of that seems to go away. there have been rare situations of severe allergic reactions, as well. one of the terms they are hearing is a term called informed consent, that's what you hear during a trial is that you're consenting that we don't know exactly how this is going to work, but we're trying this out for, again for the betterment for the public at large. take a look at the sites around the country. 11 sites, 9 states around the country currently conducting the trials. they're looking at all sorts of different things. looking at the two dose vaccines, one shot followed-up by a second shot. they're looking at how h1n1 vaccine compares to the regular seasonal flu vaccine, as well, in terms of safety. john and kiran, back to you. >> sanjay gupta for us, thanks so much. >>> meanwhile, 8:00 on the nose. here on this friday, good morning to you, it's august 14th. >>> here's what's on this morning'

influenza is h1n1. this happens to be a different h1n1. and the degree of immunity is less with this particular strain. in a sense this h1n1 is a seasonal flu but it is a pandemic in what we have a much broader population. >> vaccination is important but will we have a vaccine ready by the start of school? for some in our area that is a week or two from today. >> certainly won't have it at the start of school but it is like the influenza season, we won't have it until the fall. i believe we will have a vaccine. i don't know if it will be one or two injections. but i believe we will have a vaccine. >> will we have enough for everyone that needs one? >> well, will we have enough? that's a tough question. we have had years we have had shortages and years where we had more than we were able to use. i think we will have some degree of shortage because there's been an increased level of anxiety associated with this. that is somewhat warranted but it is the flu and not death. it may lead to shortages and it will be prioritized who gets it first. >> what about getting the vaccination for the regular seasonal flu. will that help you ward off until vaccines are ready for

influenza is very unpredictable. it can also be very severe. we're concerned because in past pandemicsowed by a severe fall wave. we agree completely -- there's a need to prepare for various scenarios, including very bad ones. >> so, included in one of those scenarios, 90,000 people could die from the swine flu. >> that's one of the things in the range of possibilities. and that's why we're focusing so much on preparation. we need to do a lot to get ready. we need to make sure that at this point, we track where flu is and the report had excellent recommendations along those lines. we also need to ensure that when flu is here, people who have underlying conditions, like diabetes, heart disease, lung disease -- women who are pregnant -- if they get fever promptly get treated to avoid getting severely ill and those same people get first on line for the vaccine when it becomes available. which we think will be in about six weeks. >> you know, i certainly understand the dangers of the flu. but the last time the swine flu reared its ugly head, we were accused of creating an unnecessary scare

pandemic and talking about exploding numbers that could be on the horizon. how worried should we be? >> it could explode. this was active in the summer in u.s. when most influenzas kind of die out. it spread rapidly. we need to be prepared, 20% of the work force is out at any time. if you have a sick kid, you can't send them to daycare. you have to stay home. and i think the cdc is asking colleges and businesses to be lax and liberal with the absenteeism rate, require a doctor's note to stay home or go out. we have to prepare ourselves for that. >> shannon: doctor, thank you for joining us via skype. enjoy the rest of your sunday. well, to stay on top of the latest h1n1 news, including updated information on the number of new cases that we are tracking, head to foxnews.com/health. we're constantly posting all the new information. right now, president obama is heading to martha's vineyard to take a family vacation and taking a break to sell healthcare reform to the american public. with congress in recess, many members are returning to the home district where they are getting an'reful from their constituents who are upset about the current state of healthcare ref

sometimes rarely a influenza virus changes radically such that it becomes a virus to which there's very little experience in the community and little background and unity. we call that a pandemic strain and that's exactly what we are seeing now with this novel h1n1. it's a fire risk is the march on society for which there's very little background immunity. that's the reason why we are trying as best we can to get prepared for it with vaccines to be offered to the american public. >> host: annapolis maryland, you are on the air, democrats line. >> caller: i would just like to make a couple of comments and then can i ask a question, paul, before you cut me off? >> host: sure. >> caller: one of the calls yesterday made a great point and reminded me of something i already knew. the people, actually the government, this doctor works for the government, i used to work for johns hopkins hospital in the department studying for the aids research and worked for the national institutes of health and mental health which are also the government. but it seems like we were constantly being overshadowed by the initiative that is part of the french government and i just wanted -- i just wonder

rarely, and influenza virus changes radically so that it becomes a virus to which there is very little experience in the community and very little background community. we call that a pandemictrain, and that is exactly what we're seeing now with this novel h1n1. it is a virus for which there is very little background immunity. that is the reason why we are trying as best we can to get prepared for it with vaccines to be offered to the american public. host: annapolis, maryland. you are on the air. caller: i would like to make a couple of comments, and then can i ask a question before you cut me off? host: sure. caller: one of the college yesterday made a great point. the people are actually the government. this doctor you -- these doctor works for the government. i used to work at johns hopkins hospital for a research effort, and i also worked for the cdc, which are also the government. it seems like we are constantly being overshadowed by the past year -- by the pasteur institute, which is operated by the french. also, i think it was 1976 because my grandmother insisted on me getting a shot and she remembers a fluke epidemic very well. -- she remembers a lflu epidemic. i w

rarely, and influenza virus changes radically so that it becomes a virus to which there is very little experience in the community and very little background community. we call that a pandemictrain, and that is exactly what we're seeing now with this novel h1n1. it is a virus for which there is very little background immunity. that is the reason why we are trying as best we can to get prepared for it with vaccines to be offered to the american public. host: annapolis, maryland. you are on the air. caller: i would like to make a couple of comments, and then can i ask a question before you cut me off? host: sure. caller: one of the college yesterday made a great point. the people are actually the government. this doctor you -- these doctor works for the government. i used to work at johns hopkins hospital for a research effort, and i also worked for the cdc, which are also the government. it seems like we are constantly being overshadowed by the past year -- by the pasteur institute, which is operated by the french. also, i think it was 1976 because my grandmother insisted on me getting a shot and she remembers a fluke epidemic very well. -- she remembers a lflu epidemic. i w