paribas is b.n.p.ifferent as i -- is diversified between international retail and corporate banking and the like. we feel confident in the overall evolution that the bank will deliver on its overall -- next line haslinda: -- haslinda: profit fell to $1 billion. the lowest price are continue to hurt the company's income. this was thanks to the tech giants smartphone and aggressive cost cuts. something was also the -- samsung was the beneficiary of sluggish iphone 6 sales. manus. manus: haslinda, thank you so much. it is a slow crawl to hike number two. it has possibly begun. policy makers to get step forward toward raising interest rates later this year. it stopped short of signaling a move could come as soon as september. they upgraded their assessment of the economy and saying near-term risks to the outlook have diminished. despite that more confident tone, the odds of a hike this year, they still remain below 50%. have a look at this. this is the 50%, the odds of a rate hike crust on the back of the

paribas posted results that were little changed.ncome came in at 2.5 6 billion euros, up from a year earlier. lloyds will eliminate an additional 3000 jobs and a further 400 million pounds in annual expenses as the uk's largest mortgage lender attempts to 4.1 6off -- it felt billion pounds. avoided second quarter profits that beat theyst estimates, thanks to galaxy s seven smartphone. the biggest beneficiary of sluggish iphone 6 sales. mark: shares -- shell's shares slumping. bloomberg's ryan chilcote is here to break it down for us. ryan: oil profits have fallen prices.falling off oil there was no surprise it was decline. the problem that she'll was their production fell as well. they produced 120,000 barrels less than the market anticipated . that doesn't sound like a lot when you're producing a few million barrels. at $50 a barrel, that adds up to $6 million a day, over a 90 day period. that explains have to loss. they do not produce the oil. arco the focus is on downstream and bp reports. what is the downstream take away? ryan:

he is with bnp paribas.onderful hour for you next, ian bremmer will join us from eurasian group, and david landau on capital flow, money flow, and current account surpluses. let me do a data board going out. moves,al banking deutsche bank having a sporting day along with other european banks. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: this morning, markets continue to deteriorate. sterling and the german 10-year to new lows. united kingdom commercial real estate faces crisis. , the exit, italian banks are broke. hour, ian bremmer and david folkerts-landau. and china watches the west. this is "bloomberg surveillance." , ande live from new york eventful wednesday, july 6. i am tom with francine in london. opening, ae a 5:00 little bit of market stability in the last 40 minutes. francine: you are an optimist. i would look at the banks, a lot of the italian banks as we are looking for resolution, and i would look at the political landscape. here in the u k we are expecting the iraq war reports. it will probably deepen divisions

paribas, staysnp with us. meantime, uk prime minister dated cameron is speaking at the farnborough airshow to muster support for u.k. businesses. we will also be speaking to the defense minister a little bit later on. it follows on the footsteps of the chancellor going to wall straight and saying, we are not quitting the world even though we are leaving the eu. >> the bubbles, we must recognize we are in a new reality now. we must accept it and make it work. that is the way british business is responding to the referendum result. as one of your longest-serving chairman -- ♪ francine: you are looking at live pictures where -- you are looking actually a tom keene, but we are looking at live pictures of david cameron talking at the farnborough air show, talking about trade and investment. mark carney is holding firm on the boe. the chancellor george osborne arriving in wall street today. whicht a tweet out encapsulates what they are trying to do. i think david cameron is doing the same at farnborough. they want t

credit suisse and bnp paribas each reported better-than-expected profits. let's take a look at other business headlines. more job cuts at lloyds bank two years after playing off 9000 people. the lender is to cut another 3000 jobs in the u.k. the bank warned of an economic slowdown in britain after the vote to leave the eu. this comes as six-month pretax profits increased 100% to 2.9 billion euros. says it willor miss its full-year profit target . the company blamed terror attacks and instability in its second-largest market. turkey is sending holidaymakers elsewhere. overseas visitors filled by a record 41% in june -- fell by a record 41% in june. samsung was boosted by strong smartphone sales composing its best quarterly results in more than two years with profits jumping 18% to more than $7 million. samsung will release a new large-screen flagship phone in the third quarter and the firm says it is confident it, too, will have strong sales. perhaps you remember yesterday measures the international -- the austerity measures the international monetary fund o

bnp paribas, a nice beat. credit suisse is a surprise profit.he worst-case scenario would be losing the passporting writes. this is perhaps just an indication that his turnaround strategy might just begin to be showing some benefits. anna: giving some clues as to the timing of the ipo of the swiss banking business. manus: which they love. anna: also talking positively about the capital that the business has. top live if you want to follow the ongoing credit suisse story, it is there. that will do it for "countdown." "on the move" is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ [hip hop beat] ♪olympics 2016, let me get you on my level. ♪ so you never miss a moment, ♪ ♪miss a minute, miss a medal. ♪ ♪ why settle when you can have it all? ♪ ♪soccer to wrestling. track and field to basketball. ♪ fencing to cycling. diving to balance beam. ♪ ♪all you have to sa♪ ♪ is, "show me," and boom it's on the screen♪ ♪ from the bottom of the mat, ♪ ♪ to the couch where you at? ♪ ♪ show me the latest medal count♪ ♪xfinity's where it's at. ♪ welcome to it all. comcast nbcuniversa

bnp paribas losses risk remain 1.27 as theide with starting point.orecasting a 25 basis , 25 inut next week october, and 100 billion pounds of kiwi which includes corporate bonds to be announced by the november meeting. there is a wonderful shot, sterling 1980 two 2016. in5 was the all-time low 1985. let's talk about bond deals because we have seen a new low for the japanese 20 year, going negative today. 10 year yield in australia and the u.s. hitting fresh lows. new lows for the german 10 year, the french 10 year. money moving out of peripheral bonds. spanish yields rising and italian yields rising but there is very much a continued flight to safety. just to continue to comment on that story that netjets was talking about -- bedrest -- nejra was talking about, freezing accident -- assets after brexit forced redemptions. the white line down 21%. keep an eye on asset managers as well. they are all down between 14% and 26%. morgan stanley sees the potential of fort further -- --ther stress and property but sentiment generated can still drive a negativ

admin shane from bnp paribas is overall, mark and carney seems to be the only leader so far because ofitical mess. how much can he do? are we looking at helicopter money? edmund: i think all over the world and in the u.k., the effectiveness of quantitative ising and monetary policy having a limited effect. i think mark carney is doing what he can but this is the point where fiscal stimulus has to be applied as well because that will have a greater effect on the economy. francine: is a recession avoidable? no? i guess you can mitigate the impact. john: it all depends -- edmund: it all depends on confidence and domestic confidence in particular when we look at retail and property markets, these are very much intangibles. do we stay at these depressed is thisf confidence or just an instant reaction and will we see a reversion? that could actually mitigate any risk of serious recession. francine: what you're talking about is a timeline. in the next six months will he have -- will we have a clearer view? the problem is we are in limbo because we do not have a government, we do not have a pl

the largest bank in hawaii as owned by bnp paribas. a $100spectus has million placeholder.y expect to sell shares in the next week. vonnie: a majority stake in chemical industries. -- that ise company according to be able with knowledge of the bank has failed to bring in more than a billion dollars. a owns about 70% of waco. yahoo! and verizon, both shares are up. verizon is said to be the lead bidder to purchase yahoo! for $5 billion. we have insight on what is in it for both parties. >> the only thing we do not know at this point is the real estate, but verizon is not going to buy the ip. there is no deal formally done during that will happen over the course of the day, maybe the weekend, but we hear the price tag is closer to $5 billion, $4 billion, it is in the upper $4 billion range most likely. the ip will be acquired by some other party, and the real estate may or may not be a part of that. verizon was previously offered only between $3.75 billion and $4 billion, so this is why a dramatic escalation from what their previous round big was -- bid was. vonnie: what will

shares of bnp paribas credit , suisse, lloyds, all falling after announcing cost cuts and struggled tost revenue. why did the shares decline? >> it was a tale of lowered expectations. they beat slightly against those lowered expectations but certainly there are still issues across the board. lloyds, still under 10%. mark: let's get back to credit suisse. it was an unexpected profit. is the tijane thiam turnaround bearing fruit? >> on one side of the ledger, he is definitely starting to make some progress. he talked about it being a first step. on the revenue side, it is a tough picture. francine: do these profits and results mean we don't need to raise capital? can those rumors be laid to rest? >> we have been very consistent in saying we do not need to raise capital. we have been very clear. we have raised $6 billion. we have the highest ct one ratio we have ever had at 11.1%. we have showed that we can pull many levers to drive that forward. we said we could do a billion and disposals. look, you never want to -- [indiscernible] within a reasonable range of outcomes, we are in a perfe

but bank analysts will pay attention to deutsche bank and bnp paribas. let's bring in adam shapiro?an banks but also deutch. what about those banks? reporter: want to pay particular attention to italian banks. another banking crisis could erupt when the european banking authority, liz, releases results of latest bank test. investors are worried about the italian banks, particularly one bank, one of the world's oldest. dates back to 1472, much simpler said, bnps. they failed the stress test three years ago. they have more than $455 billion in bad loans. it is expected to fall short of new capital requirements. the european central bank ordered bnps to cut the nonperforming loan balance. that led to investors selling the stock. it is down 84%. today it is up actually. the bank in desperate bid to a raise up to five billion new euro in new capital. the board of directors approved a recapitalization proposal. include cash from citi, deutsch bank, santander and bank of america marilyn unit. without the money they would have forced pages and creditors and customers, people, who deposit mo

he also told me that for the first time in paris, he sees alignment between the large paribas, large the governments in order to promote the attractiveness of harris. anna: thank you. the head of the u.k. rate strategy is with us in the studio. good morning. away from the corporate agenda let's get back to the macro story around the eu. in the wake of the vote, do you sense we will see closer integration? slower integration? we are getting mixed signals. guest: of course, they have a lot of issues to cope with as a result of the fallout. it is obviously going to be a better outlet for the eu if it can integrate. decisions will need to be made if integration is the way that the eurozone wants to move, some assetsattention and risk can start to reduce but there are risks that it moves and the other direction that is why we are seeing rapid movement from central bankers and politicians to shore things up. anna: how seriously our clients uitaly?"about a "q the vote is seen as a step in the journey. it's partly a consequence of what has been going on in the eu. for some, it have to do wit

the analysts are saying morgan -- bnp paribas say sell cable. comment from the bank of england really summed it up for me in terms of the bank of england. i would rather run the risk of taking a sledgehammer to crack a nut then taking a miniature rock hammer to tunnel my way out of prison. what movie did that come from? caroline: i'll pick it up from here. a quick sweep through the markets. let's return to our crucial m&a story. breaking headlines out of our arm holdings'-- ceo. it is unclear if senior management will stay on. we heard from softbank, saying they would look to keep the headquarters in cambridge. they said senior management would remain in cambridge and they would double the employee headcount in the u.k. in the next five years. is this a bit on the united kingdom, on the pound, or on the technology and the dominance that arm holdings has as a designer of chips? also starting to make inroads into automotive, internet of things, and servers, stealing market share from intel. let's dig in to this 24 billion billion,l of a $32 with m

paribas saying political risk in the european union is at the highest since 1911. you can read all the on the bloomberg, of course. world,n a post brexit bankers braced for bonuses to shrink by as much as 30%. we will have details. ♪ market volatility for the rest of the year. what are the risks that lie ahead? matt: the wharton school says a flight to quality amid the brexit shot before the brexit shocked because nothing has happened yet other than the vote. this is bloomberg. ♪ matt: you are watching "bloomberg markets." let's get to one of the most read stories on the bloomberg today. london investment bank bonus tools are set to be cut by at least a quarter and some bankers won't even be that lucky. if for the round of job cuts in london is likely in september if client activity does not pick up. this according to multiple banking executives. joining us from london is stephen loris. not good news, but at least they get to keep their jobs, i guess. most of them. stephen: indeed. bankers london will be lucky just to have a job in this industry is the most pessimi

for example, the np para ball was talked about and they have was talked paribas about and they have thisic risk which means acquisition is very expensive. generally, regulators in particular in europe do not seem to be very big fans of big consolidation anymore. and if anything, i think they are pushing the other way to address this too big to fail issue. tom: where are we in 90 days? i am frustrated because i do not see any kind of an energy of a workout in european banking. where are we in 90 days? italyit seems that in there are some initiatives on the way. issue andhi is a big it seems like there are efforts on the way. perhaps we will find out more by friday or early next week what the bank is planning to do. unicredit, there has been some talk lately that maybe they will raise some capital, that they will potentially also selloff nonperforming loans. there is something materially big in italy right now. in spain, there has been activity and in other places, perhaps there is less to do. tom: otto dichtl, thank you so much. that was extremely informative on european banking but there

maybe only bnp paribas is in that bank. sterling, he told us yesterday to watch out below. what is the outcome of your cautious view on the global economy? do we stay in the markets? or do we go to cash? christian: we play defense. our interpretation is the uncertainty the brexit has caused. the other political event that is playing out -- we have a situation, voters are willing to step away from the status quo, in particular the brexit quote -- the brexit -- we have revised our growth output for europe. markets so far is retreating it -- markets so far are treating it as a u.k. event. ok.y assets should be doing we believe that this will not play out over the coming months. we are underweight, equity. it is a different environment to do asset allocation. picky when we believe european equities are going to be under pressure. tom: james bevan this seems to be the theme of the morning. the idea here is a brexit. can you export brexit? that is a record number of axis. anticipate that with the british public is done is to vote against political elite who has become disconnecte

bnp paribas in green.say, the reality for ubs in red and deutsche bank in .ellow, as they are second-tier is there room for second-tier banking in europe and transatlantic in the new banking utility era? chris: you could argue that the equity markets businesses are putting enormous amounts of capital behind their populations so you could say ubs is becoming a little bit of a boutique. a citi a boutique than or bank of america. if younot be a boutique have consequences in the areas you are focusing on and that is the feeling i have for european investment banks. tom: i am going to put that out on twitter, deutsche bank is a boutique bank. bandini -- nandini ramakrishnan was staying out of the conversation as much a she could. up 10.ard, s&p futures dow futures up big as well. ofomberg "surveillance" course we are live. ♪ francine: tom keene is in new york. we are going to the bank of england governor mark carney who is giving his testimony to lawmakers. the boe saying they were concerned that reducing banks

senior investment strategist of bnp paribas. back to you. david: thank you.ng "bloomberg markets." david: mark crumpton has more from our newsroom. president obama tonight little to hillary clinton cut his one-time rival, should succeed him. his primetime address at the democratic national convention will seek to convince skeptical voters including some democrats that mrs. clinton is trustworthy, prepared, and ready to lead. it is a far cry from eight years ago when their campaign for the democratic nomination was at times a bitter. also scheduled to speak, vice president biden and virginia senator tim kaine. prosecutors's have dropped the remaining charges against baltimore police officers in the death of freddie gray come a black man was critically injured in the back of a police van in april of 2015. the decision comes after a judge has army acquitted three of the six officers charged in the case including the driver and another officer who was the highest-ranking of the group. a new report says shooting deaths of law-enforcement enforcement officers as by

i had a note from bnp paribas and goldman sachs saying that they are still overestimating central-bankwerful that could be. what do you expect from the bank of england and what do they get out of driving a lower? richard: i think mark carney was clear about the rate signal and where we are going to be heading in the rates environment. the market is now looking at what goes beyond that point. cut -- is basis point that going to be sufficient? that is where the market is still uncertain, beginning to work through it. whether it is going to be quantitative easing or greater funding for lending schemes. the idea is that policy has to be expanded and it will go beyond these rate moves. jon: it's a fascinating market. the structural issues were all there. but as you navigate through these issues, whether it is rate issues,als, structural the other big issue is the political uncertainty. i still don't really understand the drivers of that. if you trigger article 50 earlier than expected, is that positive for sterling? what is the political driver for sterling to the upside or downside? richar