let's get back to steven saywell, the head of fx strategy at bnp paribas.e going to talk a lot about risk on and risk off, these macro moves. i find it hard to believe it is actually going to be that simple. we have already discussed the equity markets, the fact that there will be the potential for buybacks. equities are going to be a much more nuanced story. who is going to be setting the pace? where is that lead going to be coming from? >> that is a good question. from our perspective, we think the overall risk theme is going to drive things. we think equities are going to be the driver. it could be we saw the response yesterday. if that is the big move we had, if we are going to see the status quo, that could have been the move. however, if we get back to our currency pairs that caroline just book about comedy euro-dollar, the dollar-yen, and the dollar-swiss, these could be interesting because once we get beyond the election and talk about congress, we have the fed to talk about as well. i think that is where you could see the dollar start to rally agai

. >> well, that's the reason why we are cautious at bnp paribas. many countries are excluded from the agreement. iraq complains about the number and think they can produce a higher level. so if opec uses a lower number, the cut could be far greater. just to hit the target of 33 million barrels a day is something like 670,000 barrels a day. but that will be done just by four countries within the center of opec. and then you need far more cuts from the four counties because the other members are likely to increase production. and that is why we feel that you have to remain very cautious. if some agreement comes, members won't make the necessary cuts. so it is all down to wait and see. and that is leading to price volatility at the moment. >> thank you very much. gareth is a senior strategist at bnp paribas. >> that's it for the show. "worldwide exchange" is up next. see you tomorrow, bye-bye. >>> good morning. the president-elect is meeting with a long list of advisers and potential cabinet members over the weekend. the round-up of the names is comin

paribas u.s.s was the most profitable among european investment banks in the first nine months of the year, according to first ever filings by the firms required by american regulators. of 3.80rofit on revenue 6 billion. snapchat's parent company has filed confidentially for an initial public offering, according to people familiar with the matter. one said it filed before the u.s. election with the valuation of as much as 25 alien dollars. a listing could come as early as march although no final decision has made -- has been made on the size or timing of the ipo. has spoken out about a terror upon cars made in mexico. he told bloomberg how he favored free and fair trade. >> we will have to see when president-elect trump gets into office and the policies he advocates. are a global manufacturer with our home in the united states. the majority of our investments in north america are right here in the united dates, and just as leveraging manufacturing in other parts of the world, it goes both ways. re

bannon has always claimed that they have, and paribas has alwa claimed that they have, too.ut priebus took a subordinate position to trump from the moment he became the nominee. that continued throughout the campaign. and my expectation would be, i guess qub that that will continue in the white house. at least until trump runs into some kind of trouble and feels the need to shake things up. >> josh, what is likely to be the role, a lot of speculation today, of breitbart in a trump administration? >> you know, i think that's an open question. and when you stop and think about it, it's a little difficult, i think, for breitbart to navigate the new terrain in washington. they have always happily and gleefully been outsiders throwing rocks at the republican and the democratic establishment, led by steve baon. and now the fact that bannon is in there, in the white house with the breitbart candidate and donald trump is going to make it much harder, i think, to play that same kind of role, especially if trump does what he says he intends to do, and governs in a way that includes es

paribas even brokered their first meeting this spring. >> do you feel like a couple's therapist? >> no, you know what, you wouldn't say that if you were in the room. >> reporter: but those very bonds that paribas has with gop leaders gives trump pause. they didn't want trump to be president. and though priebus often acted as a go-between during the campaign, which ultimately helped trump, sources close to the president-elect say that he isn't 100% sure priebus the loyal. >> and when you're a star, they let you do it. >> reporter: especially since as party chair, priebus had to publicly criticize trump more than once. when the "access hollywood" tape came out, he said, quote, no woman should ever be described in these terms or talked about in this manner, ever. another contender for chief of staff, steve bannon, was always a steadfast trump loyalist. he came from bireitbart, a conservative publication that spends as much time attacking establishment republicans as democrats. >> what we need to do is bitchslap the republican party and get those guys heeding too. and if we have to,

well.b trying to help as you assume at bnp paribas that these bond expansions are in perpetuity?nce: you left off the bank of england, by the way. i think the answer is if they are not in perpetuity, they well beyond the horizon that we can see in terms of return to normalization. the central banks are not going to sell bonds back. in anything like the current economic relations. francine: your take? urence madeink law a good point. getting back to the question. fromnk we have had qe central banks. it is like we need a regime shift. a shock. it has to be a positive shock that something different is happening. the past, governance have dabbled with helicopter money, it has to vaguely ended in tears. when it is associated with a big regime shift, like off of the in 1930's japan, that is when it changed things. it is more likely that we stay in the weak structural period for the foreseeable future. francine: you talk about regime shift. chinaould have to involve on a global level. also, because central banks realize what they are doing is not working, they hike. the in europe, to sh

paribas had of global epic strategies for mobile -- north america.nti-trump protests continuing across america. who the resident elect will choose for his cabinet. they stumble in the fourth quarter. we will bring you david weston's interview with marc eiger to show you why. this is bloomberg. ♪ david: this is bloomberg. i am david weston. president-elect donald trump went on to meet speaker for house paul ryan and senate majority leader mitch mcconnell on the hill. he is consulting with senior republicans as he goes about putting together his cabinet. we have bloomberg's white house correspondent. welcome back to the program. it is great to have you. give us a snapshot of this minute with -- meeting with president obama. toluse: it was supposed to be a handshake and get to know you session. it went on a lot longer. obama got a chance to tell donald trump a lot more about the office of the presidency. donald trump said he was humbled by the experience, that there was great chemistry between him and the present. they obviously have a history of tensio

voss -- bnp paribas -- spurred by monetary policies in the ecb.e relative strength index, which is still below 30, telling us the euro is still oversold. this is one i haven't talked about, the baltic index. this is a measure of surging to, a two year high. infrastructure, it would be a boon for owners of vessels, fairies, and other -- others, ferries, and commodities. it would see a big boost in infrastructure spending, which would benefit companies carrying raw material. that is the reason for this two year high. big news in germany that merkel will run for fourth time -- for a fourth time as chancellor. surprise, former prime minister won by 16 percentage points. alainl face off against juppe. 47 basis points on friday. now we are awaiting the runoff next week. many say the winner of that could go on to win the presidency next year. one of many elections we are looking forward to. upset ford one more the books. a lot of what you have said is reflected in -- you have the nasdaq rebounding and hitting earlier records. next to technology shares, t

. >> shares of bnp paribas and lloyds all falling after announcing cost cuts.hy did the shares beat? >> it was a tale of lowered expectations and they beat slightly against the lowered expectations but there are still issues across the board. credit suisse 1% and lloyd's under 10%. deutschebank won't pay the $14 billion sought by the justice department to settle a investigation into mortgage backed securities more than triple what was estimated could be a worst case. the 14 billion they have been asked we are not going to be certain of an outcome until we are there. >> if the settlement ends up anywhere close to the 14 billion that is not great for deutsch's capital position. jpmorgan had a note yesterday anything over 4 billion would need additional litigation reserves and additional capital. >> the european central bank went through an eventful year as the economies were sluggish despite a program launched in 2015. in 2016 the e.c.b. continued to refine policies to get growth going. >> the e.c.b. has cut one of its interest rates, q.e. boosted to 80 billion e

paribas, joins us in london. exciting times in terms of watching the big moves in the markets.'ve pulled up one of the asset classes that is going to be in the eye of the storm. that is going to be the dollar. this is how the dollar has been moving. we've done some research. this seems to be the conclusion. the greenback against the yen will be determined by the election. we see a stronger dollar if clinton wins and a weaker dollar if trump wins. daniel: it is a little more challenging on the dollar. the yen should benefit if we are in a risk off mode. the question is, what do you think is happening from a foreign investor point of view? are they buying, are they selling, and how does that translate into the dollar? policies is kind of hillary clinton going to bring to the table to prove bullish for markets? a lot of it is priced into equities and bonds across asset classes. daniel: that is the key question, how much is she going to be able to do? expectations now that republicans may keep control of the senate. even if they lose control, it is by a small amount. expectations a

joining us is edmund shing at bnp paribas.ow much do the overnight gyrations have to do with liquidity and how much were positioning of traders trying to wee a quick buck given that had 5-1 odds? i am sorry, we have to go straight to live speaker paul ryan. i spoke with presidential elect donald trump and congratulated him on his great victory. we talked about the work ahead of us and bringing this great country together. let me just say, this is the most incredible political feet i have seen in my lifetime. this is something you have heard me say time and again. seven out of 10 americans do not like the direction our country is going. many of our fellow citizens feel alienated and have lost faith in our core institutions. they do not feel hurt and they do not feel -- kurd and they do not feel represent -- heard and they do not feel represented but donald trump heard a voice nobody else did. he connected with people nobody else did. he turned politics on its head and now donald trump will lead a unified republican government.

and i think that what he's trying to say is, look, there's a reason why people were pushing for paribasunderstands coming together. and working with the republican party. so they were hoping -- and i think this is -- i'll share with you. i think this is actually, basically, what they brokered of, we're going to have someone that's part of the establishment, and we're going to bring in someone that helped -- >> so al nfon helped -- >> so al nfosalfonso, you have factions of this party, someone who's going to reach out to the party, reince priebus and paul ryan, and someone who speaks to the grassroots and knows how to rally that base. >> but i think that's exactly what he's doing. he's doing what president obama is talking about. he's having a balance. he's bringing in somebody like reince priebus, who many conservatives don't like. they see him as too tied to the establishmt. but then he has bannon. not as chief of staff, but as a senior council. >> remind you, his name was on tonight press release, for whatever that's worth. but here are the headlines from the ultraconservative breitba

frank's largest bank, bnp paribas, has had the most u.k. business among european banks this year. the bundesliga reviews risks to germany's financial system. we are possibly talking deutsche bank and commerzbank. a campaign launched by the leader of the french national front. andill talk marine le pen what that means, investing in the world of political risk. first, here is nejra cehic. trump isnald considering nominating texas senator ted cruz to serve as u.s. attorney general, according to a person familiar with the matter. speaking to reporters at from towers in new york yesterday, he said the election was a mandate for change, but did not confirm he was under consideration for a job. cruz unsuccessfully sought the republican presidential nomination, and exchanged a vicious attack with trump during the campaign. and but his bank executive board member says germany will walk away from talks on revamping global capital rules unless key demands are met. bundesbank executive board member says germany will walk away from talks unless key demands are met. they meet in the basel commi

paribas u.s.usiness was the most profitable among european investment banks in the first nine months of the year. according to first-ever filings by the -- of the forms required. they made a pretax profit of $958 million on revenue of 3.8 $7 billion. credit suisse lost money in the states because of restructuring costs. snapchat's parent company has filed confidentially for an initial public offering according to people familiar. one of the people said it filed papers with the sec before the u.s. election and it is -- the valuation is much as -- as much as $20 billion. no final decision has been made on the size or timing of the ipo. a representative declined to comment. haschief executive officer spoken out about donald trump's plan to scuttle free trade. he told bloomberg how he favors free and fair trade. >> we will have to see when president-elect trump gets into office in the policies he advocates but we are a global manufacturer with our home in the u.s., the majority of our investments in n

that is the political risk index from bnp paribas.erpricing political risk in europe -- are we underpricing political risk in europe? and is italy the focus? >> i am confident they will be another existential crisis to the euro. commentatorsy talking about the italian referendum as a trigger point. but actually, the referendum is about the italian constitution. i think it would be good because it would break this balanced house problem that italy has that makes it difficult for them to reach decisions. mr. renzi remains in charge of the largest political party. and they will not be a political general election for 2018. there is not even a vote on the euro. guy: across the channel, we are very good at picking each other's unsustainabilities. we can see the euro is unsustainable. do you share that view? >> it is not sustainable as it is currently structured. if you were to say to me, what would be required to make sure the euro lasts, it would be the fiscal policy. guy: james, stay with us. we will carry on this conversation. this is t

ecb paribas -- s&p: we have got the futures it in there for you, down at 0.3%. asian session is positive. msci asia up. japanese stocks are underperforming. u.s. futures looming on the horizon, down 0.2%. oil story, a big one this week. $47.15, coming through with sentiment around the oil talks, changing by the hour over there. we'll get the latest on that shortly. 4.75% in gain. in london.se his set for the strongest finish since 2011. anna: l it could have beenead, goal -- it could have been led, gold. group is meeting in vienna on wednesday to try to finalize the terms. reporter joins us now from the austrian capital. there has been a flurry of activity ahead of this meeting. tell us the latest. yousef says, changing by the hour. opec ministers making last-ditch efforts to shore up a deal. minister,e saudi oil first off, so many things are changing. saudi decides to pull out of today's meeting and this is a preparatory meeting ahead of wednesday's big gathering. yesterday, we, heard from the saudi oil minister saying the market could rebalance without opec ma

cozad being world police, when i first started, the department was negotiating a resolution with bnp paribas. they were very local to the degree of taking at these , about therticles fact that we're practicing the mtp. i believe there is some french .egislation germany may think they are doing the same thing. .i the volkswagen case the w sent cars to the united states knowing that they put them out on the road. should we be looking at that? ideally -- dealing with iranian and these clients, they have a very large business line. and that we are not dealing with those'countries not just up high on the borders, but it -- compliance people would write e-mails. they saw opinions from two of .wo w and they decided it was to get that money from the business and .hey viewed as a political what it really does is it affects our system. we don't want our system to be used for dirty money, as a haven for dirty money. we don't want our companies to be disparaged when other companies hang bribes alone the world. i don't think we are out there prosecuting things we barely have jurisdiction on. we kind of h

you've got bannon, you've got paribas, you've got, you know, you've got sessions, already kind of linedide of his inner circle. and i think we should get, you know, get some fresh faces in around mr. trump, and, you know, the team of rivals concept has worked throughout history. clearly, he is capable of bringing in a lot of diverse opinions, and listening. he's showing himself at this point, to be at least open to talking to a lot of people he hasn't talked to throughout the process. and it was a tough campaign, but it's time to turn the page. i think if he can move in a new direction, find a few people who haven't been in the inner circle, and bring in some ideas and some debate, you know, with maybe a little bit different world view, i think we could have a very successful foreign policy going forward. certainly more successful than we've had over the past eight years, which has had haa lot of failures. >> sarah, why should someone like jeff sessions who couldn't be confirmed for a federal judgeship be made united states attorney general? >> first of all, that talking point has gotte

bnp paribas, citigroup, credit suisse.d over to ubs wealth management and the note to them is that we are overestimating the potential for u.s. growth, underestimating eurozone growth and they are taking the other side of the trade. david: that is interesting. alix: coming up, what president-elect trump means for the fed and its plans to raise rates. this is bloomberg. ♪ alix: part of what we have seen in the market has been a re-rating of fed hike expectations. the markets see the like of 2017 aste hikes to late higher than ever. the purple line is the fed futures implied yield curve. the white line is what it was on november 9. a huge re-rating very quickly. you see a 100 basis point increase through the end of 2009. you see the markets pricing in a faster rate hike schedule from the fed. five-year treasury yields. you can see that jumped to over 100 basis points over the last few days as the short end starts to price in the fed rate hike. the deeper question is what happens when the neutral rate? do we see in neutral --

other services according to a french labor group that has had discussions with top management at bnp paribassay the bank is considering new tools for serving clients. retailers in the u.s. are thrilled election tuesday is over. -- they hope on black friday. 137 million consumers will buy in stores or online over the four-day weekend. a -- the amount americans spend over the kickoff to the holiday season has dropped. some believe consumers held onto their money during the election campaign. froma is under pressure opec to make a significant cut in oil production. the russians are not willing to do that, but they have repeated the stance that freezing production at current levels is likely -- is like a cut to next year's plan. that is your bloomberg business flash. let's stick with the oil theme and talk about opec. the cartel meets indiana. for next week -- in vienna. let's bring in how your boss. blas.ier we have had this discussion on a cut or a freeze. fill us in on the details. opec is trying to reach their own agreement when they meet in vienna. we do not have the details of the agreemen