bnp paribas anticipates over 2022.o 50% that was the b.n.p. paribas cfo. second quarter provisions lower-than-expected. bnp also confirmed a -15% to 20% full-year net income guidance. let's get to the markets. yesterday we've got new meanings for the phrase, a beat across all big tech companies versus what we learned on u.s. gdp and jobless claims. read on the screen. that is because japan and australia are largely weighing on the msci asia-pacific index with those stockmarkets, posting a little bit of red based on coronavirus developments. futures in the u.s. getting a lift from tech earnings. s&p futures muted. nasdaq futures outperform. european futures edging into the green as well. the 10 year yield and the dollar bore the brunt of the economic data. the dollar is at a more than two-year low. the 10 year yield continuing its slide to a record low. gold bid after stumbling a little yesterday. america's biggest tech companies saw their earnings surge during the pandemic while the rest of the economy is being hammered, quarterly results from apple, amazo

francine: that was the bnp paribas chief financial officer. coming up, the initial shock of the pandemic has not been fully hedged -- we speak to the chief financial officer of the world second-biggest reinsurer next. this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: economics, finance, politics, this is "bloomberg surveillance." says that the worst effects of the coronavirus is already hedged. the world's second-largest reinsurer surprised markets. that claimsadded and reserves are there to cover the majority of losses. joining us is the chief re.ncial officer of swiss when you look at how many more losses we could see from covid-19, how difficult is it to model central lockdowns and the number of companies that will be affected by this? offrancine, we have a series scenarios we have run based on the first half of the year. we believe we have a pretty good handle on the losses which are likely to come. we believe most of the insurance thees were incurred in first half of this year. it is due to the fact that the the pandemics yes, there will continue to be flar

bnp paribas has reported a blowout performance.ut one of the -- this will allow the french lender to move past embarrassing losses. the ceo was asked if they would maintain guidance in the event of a surge of coronavirus cases. we anticipate there will not be a second nationwide rollback. we should look at the results of this quarter and the first six months. it is in line for us to confirm. was --d income activity it is up 100 54%. this exceptional market volatility will be less in the coming months? it is an issue, institutional but also sovereigns. it is probably above normal. to serveas we are able customers, because of our strong financials, of all the financials we have, we have oath the market share. being there for clients. weis something we anticipate will keep on having in the second half. >> french retail revenues are down 11.8%. it is worse than our estimates. anticipate a recovery there? impact had an impact, particularly in april. if you look at the activity, the number of activities, credit card transactions, demands

edmund shing from bnp paribas stays with us.take a look at some of the events we are watching out for today. make sure they are marked on your schedule. going onbout what is in brussels. eu leaders meeting to discuss the recovery package. the need for reform. this will be their first in person summit in months. and the bank of england governor andrew bailey speaks at a citizens forum. and before the u.s. market opens, blackrock will report its second-quarter earnings. we will be waiting for larry fink's comments. next, the accounting scandal shining the light on poor corporate governance. esgill discuss the g in with edmund shing. this is bloomberg. ♪ anna: welcome back to the european market open this friday morning. still 15 minutes to go until the start of cash equity trading. known asmeant to be the year of investing but the coronavirus has remained the focal point of market attention. esg investing has continued to grow as investors look for ways to insulate themselves from shock. on the environmental front, the record amou

tech titans rally after they add over $200 billion in value on a block buster day of earnings bnp paribas report a 150% surge in trade helping to beat forecasts. >> the top lines are up. revenues up 4% if you look at the activities. despite the impact >> iag luke to raise 3 billion euros and klm unveils an operating loss sending both shares into the red. six years of growth wiped out in spain as gdp drops in the second quarter but the french economy shrinks less than expected down 15.8%. happy friday welcome to "street signs." we've got a lot of earnings to get to let's talk gdp first we've heard from france and spain. now numbers from italy preliminary q 2 gdp slank quarter on quarter less expected a value. they've advised their q 1 estimate of 5.4% contraction quarter on quarter and 5.4% year on year. slightly worse than anticipated. q 1 marginally worse but q 2 better than expecting. an unprecedented slump for italy but the takeaway better than analysts had feared. not quite as grim as the market had been bracing for looking at the euro gaining ground currently trades around 118.77 we

francine: we know that bnp paribas out, they were lobbing to resume dividend payments.had hinted that they may return more capital to shareholders towards the end of the year. could there be a problem with compliance? do they just kind of do what they are told, especially d's big banks -- these big banks? paribas, a big french bank, was going to promise one of the fattest payouts of european banks. whether they comply, i think they will probably have to. the ecb is saying it is a they can force the banks, if they need to. a swissause they are --k, under ecb supervision they are a swiss bank, they do not come under ecb supervision. you can go ahead and pay dividends. it certainly could make ubs to be a more attractive prospect than a european bank who is to pay a dividend. francine: thank you so much for joining us. up next, revival plan in the u.s. republicans unveiled a $1 trillion to move this proposal to kick off negotiations with democrats. we will get all the details next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ economics, finance, politics, this is "bloomberg surveillance." let's

joining us now from paris is william, the bnp paribas group chief economist. it feels like this was a good week for europe. we have the p.m.i. more than expected and the recovery fund. if you look at job losses they're going to get ugly in europe. william: that is a concern i have if you look at the p.m.i. data today. what strike is that yes, manufacturing significantly and new export levels in germany are just flying but the employment series is showing that companies are under no intention whatsoever to increase hiring and on the contrary. that's a concern. it's a concern because the recovery will depend on what households do, how much they spend and they need confidence. alix: what is going to give them that confidence? william: the problem that you have at the current juncture is you have the kind of circular reasoning, what i mean is that households need to be comfortable about the labor market prospects. now, companies can only give that comfort if they say their sales will be ok. one needs the other and that of course is why it is so important that we h

. >> paribas in united states, we've been mostly working from home, observe the -- offer 90% staff ism home, however, we've started, asking some of our colleagues to come back the ones who work in the key critical areas like general trading clearing, and payments, but going to be very gradual, we started phase one 10 days ago you know this pretty well, we ask people to be tested we test all staff to come back, we have -- do cleaning, if the upper take you to the floor, trading floors all people as well plexglass, don't have enter mingling across the floor we respect are social distancing wear a mask don't expect more than 15% staff back in corporate oufs over summer month and then based on pandemic -- >> yeah, it depends what is state of business, we've heard from colleagues in the banking sector talking about, increasing number of dollars aside for loan loses they are expecting later in the year what is your take on all of that? can you assess your own business right now in that regard? >> well, as you know maria i am in the -- until we publish or research by month end i can give you

longer term health not just on our out look but europe as well joining us now, chief economist at paribas what do you make of china? do you think that nation is in the grips of a solid recovery? >> if you look at the retail sales and production, down and now up the important government retail sales typically recoveries are driven by the sector so it is an issue, i would say all of this debate over the letters. v shaped, u shaped, recovery shaped from your perch, how do you see the u.s. economy over the next 3 to 6 to 12 months? >> the key is what is happening on the consumer side and labor markets. the big concern is that the job creation would be slow, subdued. at the same time, they would continue to creep up and people would no longer benefit from specific programs that have been put in place to make the support. if there is no continuation of these programs, that means it will have that kind of cliff and consumer spending. that exists with certain programs as well recovery in the u.s. and globally mentioned when i was speaking about china are driven by the consumer sector that means e

consumer loans more banks to report later this week barclays and thursday, we'll see more and pnb paribas will issue their latest earnings on friday. stay with us, we'll be right ck >>> welcome back to "street signs. let's get a check on european markets and how the trading session is shaping up. logged three negative sessions yesterday, the main benchmark dropped about a third a percent. this morning, we have recouped all of those losses. stoxx 600 trading 0.3% higher. we have a bit of a mixed picture. spanish margin bouncing back up about 0.8% in germany, the dax holding up well ftse 100 up 0.4% in france, the cac 40 underperforming. movers in the luxury space just before the break at lvmh and montclair. those shares trading lower the market was some what disappointed a big week for earnings in europe and state side. we'll get big tech earnings with a number of those reporting on apple, amazon and facebook the federal reserve kicking off today, a two-day policy meeting. a little bit of optimism coming through european markets around the senate republicans proposing this $1 trillion coro

yielding 10%, was -- bnp paribas was yielding 10%. what i think will happen is you will see the strong getting stronger. , in the ssm,e ecb made it clear that they want further consolidation and they will allow financial ins to sheehan to use the difference between book value and how much equity you have an your market cap. today, the european banking assessed 70 -- the ss can buy that at 60. that gap is huge. then they later say you can use it in order to clean up your books on nonperforming loans and to pay for charges. 500 billion,sive 600 billion firepower that the consolidator will be able to use in the industry. i don't mean to interrupt, this is absolutely brilliant, but where is the catalyst to really jumpstart a new european banking system? way -- i think the only first of all, there is no magic, there is no silver bullet and we willank -- see this in the space, too -- can operate at zero or negative rates for a long time, so you will have inevitably impact on margins. what i do expect is you will see further cost gouging thr

supply chains will be reshuffled , and that is one of five investment themes filled out in the bnp paribash management investment strategy. let's get to the meat of this. joining us is the cio at bmp paribas.a -- bnp quality never goes out of fashion. i will say never say never, but run us through your thinking around the higher-quality names. >> yes, good morning. is one of the two investment themes that we dedicate to low risk investors. we think in the current situation it is difficult to focus on the short-term. we tried to forget about the short-term. we want to be long-term for investment. with that, quality stocks continue to be one of the main investment themes for low risk investments. -- you never forget quality. you forget the price. quality remains. it is varied for investment in equities. withhe main problem quality stocks is that they are expensive. in they could underperform case the markets continue to be very bullish short-term. , qualityhe long run remains an asset to hone. citi is maintaining a defensive position on their top investors. with health care. is this of the y

bnp paribas reports friday. natwestk., watch for results.oming up, larry kudlow sees a positive picture and thinks a v-shaped recovery is possible. this is bloomberg. ♪ nejra: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." ae u.s. economy is poised for third quarter rebound according to white house economic adviser larry kudlow speaking to cnn. he says the impact from hotspots in the sun belt is likely limited as he sees a v-shaped recovery. putblican party has together a stimulus bill that will replace 70% of lost wages for jobless individuals but nancy pelosi says the proposal is too complicated. emmanuel cau from barclays is with us and we will hear from the fed this week. a lot of people are expecting the fed this week to give a signal to markets of lower for longer for bond yields and they stayed suppressed. how much of a risk for high yields do you see from a potential v-shaped recovery and the stimulus? marketl: the bond doesn't seem to be betting on a v-shaped recovery. a disconnect between the strong equity market and strong bond market, so

bnp paribas has been pushing for this not to happen. down by 0.4%. psa up by 3.12%.a more positive picture than you would have anticipated months back. the virus will dominate all of this. the single noise ratio improving a little bit in terms of this reporting season versus the last reporting season. but nevertheless, we are still try to figure out the direction of travel with the virus. that ultimately is what is happening here. let's get a sense of what is going on. look at the latest on what is going on with the virus. expertjoined now by an epidemiologist in terms of what is happening here, infectious disease expert. thank you very much for your time. look. what i am try to figure out here is, what defines a second wave? is that what we are starting to see here in europe? >> thanks. a second wave is if you actually managed to control the first wave. i think there are many countries that qualify for that. maybe in asia. example, we for absolutely cannot claim to be in a second wave situation unless you are in new york. alix: what about over in europe as we are se

and bnp paribas reports a blowout performance in fixed-income trading, leading all but one of the large wall street banks. good morning and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london. tom keene is in new york. shrinking 12.1% in the second quarter matches the estimates that we have been speaking to. italy was ugly but better than expected, so it does seem that when you look at the overall picture, inflation, that inflation rate coming in at 0.4 percent, that is higher, a touch higher than expected. tom: this is economic data, and we need to do what we do at bloomberg, which is explained the way they quote gdp data in europe is different than america. the 12% number is equivalent to number yesterday in the united states. it is showing tension in europe as well. friday --low on this is it absolutely extraordinary? francine: i feel like we have not had a quiet newsday on a friday in quite some time. .e had quite a lot of earnings quite a lot of politics with the latest declarations by president trump, and there is just quite a lot overall in geopolitics as well, so

cbo: that was the paribas speaking to bloomberg earlier today. parent company and owns 25% of it. they are weighing whether or not to sell part of the state or all of it. alex webb, bloomberg opinion columnist, joins us now. with this willie happened -- with this really happened? ?id softbank own nvidia why would they want to get back in? alex: softbank does not own all of arm, it is the vision fund which owns 25% of that stake. all of it is controlled by softbank entities. softbank faces pressure from investors, not the least of which is elliott. some investments are less than the enterprise value. that is something they are trying to correct. arm is something they acquired four years ago with the intention of holding onto it for a decade or more. on its books it is still valued at the $32 billion it paid. carrying out a transaction like this, particularly with stock as well as cash brings better visibility into the value of the investment and will help rerate the shares. if i am amd, if i am samsung, if i'm qualcomm, if i am broadcom, the list

paribas talking about nominal yields can stay where they are. the visible interest rate that we see. yet come with rising inflation, those real yields can drive ever lower. i have trouble believing that is a stable process. will that be a stable process, or do you look for bond price volatility? think, is trying to make sure it is as stable a process as possible. take the move index, a measure of treasury volatility. it is at its lows. the fed, with their forward guidance in their policy going forward will be to try to maintain that stability in the short end of the market at least so that you can have these real yields continue to decline. obviously there is a breaking and where they may lose control, but that will be well in the future in our view. so they will control the level of nominal rates to some extent. -- as inflation expectations rise, that means yields go down. what does a cautious stance mean at a time when there markets withn extremely high prices, and the riskiest assets where you see companies closest to default priced as such?

we are joined now with the chief economist at bnp paribas. am sure that what merkel is saying there is fairly obvious. there has got to be some unity, i am sure, in order to overcome this. what kind of recovery do you expect, william? an unevenere will be recovery as well in the e.u. inliam: definitely, we are -- really towards the end of the mechanical part. i would say that means that at the end of the lockdown, activity picks up, demand picks up, and now, we will be going towards a slower pace of quarterly growth. the differences between countries is of course going to theery much dependent on characteristics of the country. italy has been suffering more. germany has been oriented. you can expect that there will be, at the end of the year, a quite significant gap in terms of gdp growth between the various countries. anna: good morning to you, william. i want to ask you about unemployment and where you think that heads given what you said about the path of growth from here. where do you see unemployment rates peaking? william: well, it will

then you have bnp paribas reporting in france, paris. out forthe u.k., watch natwest will be lord.rie: it's going to be a slew of earnings, as well as big tech, big oil, etc. i want to turn to aviation now. ryanair reported this morning and they say its biggest fear is a second wave of the coronavirus. they booked 185 million euro loss as the outbreak largely put an end to the september holiday plans. the u.k.'s decision to add quarantine restrictions on travelers from spain will likely only make it worse. we spoke to the cfo. take a listen. guest: you're not going to see profits. you're going to have to look into next year before you see a recovery on that front. annmarie: joining us now on the phone to discuss, sid. thanks for joining us. what are the key takeaways you found of these numbers from ryanair this morning? sid: good morning. so, the biggest takeaways at the moment are the fact that there are going to be localized quarantines and essentially airlines are seeing more delayed bookings of flights. ryanair said he does see demand, but it is loaded towards the flights. the

bnp paribas saying that 10 year yield could rise to 3.4%. we are watching other markets as well. hong kong is a focus today. we saw a record number of local virus cases, the most since the pandemic began. they tightened distancing rose again. 150 points lower on the hang seng. jakarta is flat at the open. p, and a lot down. you are seeing a little bit of an asia fx selling off today. the dollar yen is at 10703. offshore renminbi holding at seven. the korean won weakening by half of 1%. we are talking about the very hot ipo market in hong kong. ipos pricing the hong kong new the bottom of the range. we know that chinese companies counted for a record 95% of first timeshare sales in asia in the second quarter. headlines first word for you. the virus is flaring again in parts of asia with hong kong and tokyo reporting record new spikes despite seeming to have control the pandemic. both recorded single day highs. hong kong with 34 local cases. tokyo was 224. the news comes after weeks of normalized activity and raises the possibility of renewed social restrictions. scientists say cov

headquartered 6th avr old time life building expanding downtown, then we also have, bank national -- paribas we are seeing companies start to tiptoe back in the water these leases that were signed, reaffirm that we are seeing now that we can we are back into four in terms of reopening, allowed to take customers, with proper protocol through spaces, we are seeing significant increase in in flooring people who are in negotiations in january february march, stopped their deals now starting, to revive it a couple in our portfolio we are moving forward with a right around the corner again from you. a major renovation that is -- times square starting to see green chutes happening i want to see what it is going to look like how we change workplace we will talk about that more with bill rudin when we come right back. what do you think? i don't see it. only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ in a highly-connected lexus vehicle at the golden opportunity sales event. lease the 2020 es 350 for $359 a month for 36 months. experience amazing at your lexus dealer. . maria: welco