the relevance here is nikki haley is in no way like pat buchanan in terms of her policies, or politics. but she has outperforming so far patrick began in 1992 and lots of people, myself included almost every analyst i've seen has compared trump to essentially a quasi-incumbent 100% name id controls the party ran as an incumbent, didn't do the debates now obviously he's not an actual incumbent, but he kinda serves as one in part because as a former president who says he didn't lose the last election, the party just sort of rallied around him and nikki's numbers. if papi cannons numbers were indicative of incredibly weak incumbent and hw bush then nikki haley's numbers have to be pointing towards a certain weakness in donald trump, even if he isn't a full fledged incumbent. >> yeah, one difference might be between 1980, ted kennedy, 92, pat buchanan, and today, i can't imagine nikki haley getting a speaking slot anywhere near the convention this time around this summer it comes to what it jumps to pass. >> you might have a food truck outside the convention, but no way in the convention s

bush jarred by that finish against far less prominent challenger pat buchanan who got closer than haleyhowing bush's weakness as he clinched the nomination, but then went on to lose to clinton. that example like ford's troubles replacing nixon. they very were well known. he worked for president nixon before later running for president himself, and now, as promised we turn to former presidential candidate howard dean, a governor that ran the rnc. >> dnc, please. >> i hope i said dnc. i'm sorry. >> how are you? >> i'm great. >> we had the beat team together and went into a deep dive. in both parties, it's always been understood that if you've been president before, you shouldn't be defending off people at 35, 40%. what do you see here? >> i think this is partly right. i think there's some other things going on, too. the things that are different are that trump has a core group that's not going to dessert him under any circumstances, definitely enough to get him the nomination. it's not enough to win. secondly there's something else at play that wasn't in play in either of those other two

and pat buchanan had done better than expected in new hampshire, bush beat buchanan by 21.s is the only incumbent who's faced a primary in south carolina. so not much to compare this to. be interesting to see the numbers come in tomorrow. the other significance of tomorrow how it could affect the republican race three weeks from now. we get a poll this week, trump beating haley in her home state by 26 points. we know the importance of south carolina to haley, the particular importance of democrats to republicans in she's going to have any shot on february 24th. the rule in south carolina, no party registration, anybody can vote tomorrow, but if you vote in tomorrow's democratic primary in south carolina, you cannot vote in the february 24th republican primary. so for haley, who is leaning on independents and democrats in particular, the higher that turnout gets tomorrow, probably the worst news it is for her because that's a pool of voters she's trying to get into the republican primary three weeks from fou. >> steve kornacki, thank you very much. we are seeing where they a

a republican, it was 1992, it was george bush senior, and george bush senior was challenged by pat buchananly well in new hampshire, at least there to expectations. bush beaten by 41 points, david duke was running that year, he got 7%. but, that's the only incumbent president who's ever faced a primary in south carolina. so not a lot of benchmarks here. but as you say, in less than ten minutes now, polls are going to close in south carolina, -- county start lighting up. there are some counties here we are paying particular attention to, that have majority average american populations. those are the ones he particularly was looking for the enthusiasm factor. how many folks are turning, out just how big is the biden margin? and i think, yet we will get a pretty good sense here, within a half an hour i think, of some of these questions. >> so steve, on the turnout question. to your point, the fact that president biden is an incumbent running for reelection. should we read anything into it, if the turnout numbers are not big? could we read into that that people realize he is the president, he i

everybody has been talking about how he's aquazi are de facto incumbent and george hw bush in 1992, pat buchanan ran against them, got 37% in the new hampshire primary and people called that a devastating blow and proof that the republican party was irreparably divided. nikki haley beat that in new hampshire, beat that in south carolina, george hw bush lost and george hw bush lost. and so so i'm not saying that this foretells that he's going to lose because the coalitions are different now, but it's not. as trump said, the republican party's never been more unified. that's nonsense. yeah, the coalitions are different now >> it is also true that just since we're taking a walk down history lane, that on the democratic side. i mean, look at the divide between voters for obama and hillary and so on and so forth. and obama ended up winning that. so it certainly happens same but even biden and bernie sanders in 2020, it certainly happens. that's what primaries are all about. but to your point about this being about trump in the cult of personality. and also what you were saying about anecdotally meeti

i was at national review for 20 years pat buchanan came to my breasts. so i've been around in the conservative movement for awhile. this was one of the lodestar arguments of the american right. the patriotic american right, the sensible american right, that just because the soviet union or communist china or whatever it had a big military and we had to build military that didn't mean we were morally equivalent. the false moral equivalents argument was that the cornerstone of the reagan administration was a cornerstone of jeane kirkpatrick work is the cornerstone of william f. buckley is worldview. and now you have this just unbelievably a glib asinine effort to do this it's you have to be too stupid to be a spell checker to an m&m factory to think that donald trump is an american navalny i nude go one ridge. i mean, you know, who was like hockey and videos to make money on. i don't know the muslim takeover america or something years ago is now switched to, i guess he's full-on maga. i mean he knows better i like to think some of these people know better,

you got to go way back to 1992, george bush sr., challenged by pat buchanan.x-klansman. if you remember, buchanan had done well in terms of expectations in new hampshire. this is a very disappointing showing for buchanan. david duke did get 7%. that's the point of comparison. we did see biden as a write in do well in new hampshire. no reason to think he's not going to do better with his name on the ballot in south carolina. the other implication for this, remember, the republican primary, still three weeks away, new poll here this week from monmouth. donald trump leading nikki haley, 58-32 in her home state. we know the importance of south carolina to nikki haley in having any chance to keep this thing going, and we know the particular importance of independence and democrats. she's counting on them to come out in huge numbers for her. here's the rule in south carolina, if you vote in tomorrow's democratic primary, anybody can do it, there's no party registration in south carolina. nobody's officially registered with any party. so anybody can vote in that demo

pat buchanan came out in new hampshire, where he did unexpectedly well. must be in by 41 points backed. and those are the only benchmarks that we have. that, and as i say, again, as a write-in candidate, biden got 65 in new hampshire, the state looks better for him on paper for all sorts of regions, not to mention his name is on the ballot. again, you expect the numbers to be significantly better than that. in terms of the eternal question, will be looking in particular at counties with large black populations. the democratic electorate in south carolina is typically majority south american. as we showed you, it was african american voters to get biden that victory, who were primarily responsible for the huge south carolina victory four years ago. we are looking at a country like this tonight, even though the orderlies are coming in. but allendale counties has the highest concentration of black voters in the entire state. you can take a look here four years ago how biden did here. remember, he got less than 50 statewide, he got nearly 60 into county. what

on the right with the ideologies of reagan and goldwater and has been hijacked by pat buchanan and steve bannon. they would rather leave ukraine high and dry and let putin run amok and on the left they have an obsessive hate of israel and would rather see that country get destroyed. what people don't realize there is a war on the west against western liberal democracy and on the others are despots, dictators and tyrants, brutal thugs. we are the police force of the world and we should use our might wisely and prudently and everyone comparing this to vietnam and the iraq war, is not the same. that's a false equivalency. these are skirmishes that are being caused by these players and i hope cooler heads prevail. on why much of the world worries about the trump victory. i suggest everyone watch it. all the world leaders are worried about trump getting back into power and leaving all these countries out to dry. at least biden believes a global order with global trade in democracy. host: we will go next to georgia, a democrat. caller: war is no fun. i did two tours in vietnam and those saying

on the right with the ideologies of reagan and goldwater and has been hijacked by pat buchanan and steve bannon. they would rather leave ukraine high and dry and let putin run amok and on the left they have an obsessive hate of israel and would rather see that country get destroyed. what people don't realize there is a war on the west against western liberal democracy and on the others are despots, dictators and tyrants, brutal thugs. we are the police force of the world and we should use our might wisely and prudently and everyone comparing this to vietnam and the iraq war, is not the same. that's a false equivalency. these are skirmishes that are being caused by these players and i hope cooler heads prevail. on why much of the world worries about the trump victory. i suggest everyone watch it. all the world leaders are worried about trump getting back into power and leaving all these countries out to dry. at least biden believes a global order with global trade in democracy. host: we will go next to georgia, a democrat. caller: war is no fun. i did two tours in vietnam and those saying

we go back in history to say 1992, pat buchanan continued on and continued to campaign.here is a precedence for even after the delicate i location map -- allocation map. it confirms what we know, that donald trump will be the party's nominee ultimately, but that does not mean he is at this point and it does not mean she should not continue. that is her decision to make. host: put on your strategist hats. if that is what is projected to happen, what does it mean for president trump's campaign, for the people supporting that, the rnc, and what does it mean for the reelection campaign firm joe biden and the dnc? guest: any these are too -- to me, these are two different things these are two different things. the same things are not happening -- to me, these are two different things. the same things are not happening on both sides. about 40% of republicans who are based republicans, the kind turning out in the republican primary, and they are saying they would like a different choice. i think we do not see the same narrative around joe biden. he is being treated as if he is

we go back in history to say 1992, pat buchanan continued on and continued to campaign.here is a precedence for even after the delicate i location map -- allocation map. it confirms what we know, that donald trump will be the party's nominee ultimately, but that does not mean he is at this point and it does not mean she should not continue. that is her decision to make. host: put on your strategist hats. if that is what is projected to happen, what does it mean for president trump's campaign, for the people supporting that, the rnc, and what does it mean for the reelection campaign firm joe biden and the dnc? guest: any these are too -- to me, these are two different things these are two different things. the same things are not happening -- to me, these are two different things. the same things are not happening on both sides. about 40% of republicans who are based republicans, the kind turning out in the republican primary, and they are saying they would like a different choice. i think we do not see the same narrative around joe biden. he is being treated as if he is