joining me now larry sabato and editor and chief, patrick murray. we'll get right into this here. these are the states where the voting ends before 8:00 p.m. eastern. what will you be watching out for when the first wave of polls closed, you, first, larry. >> indiana in kentucky closes at 6:00. i never understood that. i will look for the u.s. senate seats there. if mike braun is winning suggests that democrats are going to have a tough time. if donnelly wins, they still have a great path to it. and andy barr the republican and incumbent. i think democrats is going to have a great night in the house, they can still win the house without it. >> you got your eyes on kukentuy and indiana. how about your predictions for 8:00 p.m. on tuesday? >> in addition to what larry is mentioning, i am going to look at virginia which closes at 7:00. the reason why is there are a number of house districts in there that could -- that tells us how things are going to go. if the republicans win the tenth district, that means they're going to hold onto their hats. a few

and, patrick murray, the director of the monmouth university polling institute. we welcome both of you back to the "newshour". so, domenico, i want to look back for just a oment, looking at 2016, a lot of people were very quick to criticize the polls and say they were all wrong. , u were talking to us today and saying, we just pointed out, it wasn't the national polls, it's what happened in the stu es. what do an by that? >> well, there's a couple of different things that are go on here. i mean, the fact of the matter is you have a lot of natiozal news orgaons who are still pretty flush with cash, who are able to pay for pretty good lling across all of t states, right, and you have, like, a good representative sale of what's happening, but when it comes to the states andg ssional districts and the amount of money that can be spent by local television stations, local newspapers, those are drying up and being more difficult to be able to pay for good pog, and i think we saw that with wisconsin and michigan, in particular, in 2016, where you didn't havethat many pol

joining me steve kornacki and patrick murray. u know this segment was born out of a conversation we had yesterday as you were leaving the set during the commercial break. patrick said i think the senate might not be impossible. let's have this conversation on television. steve, first show us the numbers. >> a couple of most recent polls we have and what that does to the battleground. fox news took this poll. they show a tie in arizona. we had a tie that showed kristen ahead. on the nevada side put jacky rosen ahead. if you look at the battleground, if you say those breaks in arizona and nevada go the democrats way, say they get those two. that would be two pick ups. that would leave them at 44. they would still need a lot. tennessee, our poll shows marsha blackburn, the republican ahead by five. if you add north dakota, there was another poll that showed the republican up by nine in north dakota. if you put that in the republican column, in texas there's been about three and a half trillion polls in texas and they all put ted cruz

joining us to talk about some of the early returns, bellwether races we should be watching is patrick murrayof the monmouth polling institute. mr. murray, it's great to have you with us tonight. thank you for being here. >> it's my pleasure, rachel. >> what do you think we should watch as early bellwethers? >> the kentucky race, we're not sure what that means, regardless of the outcome. at 7:00, virginia close. >> the kentucky race, you're saying it's interesting, but it won't necessarily point in one direction or other. >> right. it won't point us to what the story of the night is going to be. >> for the story of the night, you want the v races? >> i want the v races there are four races in virginia that will give us a lot of information. you have the one in northern virginia that barbara comstock is running for reelection there. most folks consider that a pickup for democrats already, if democrats don't pick up that, it means it's going to be a big night for republicans. but let's say the democrats pick up that. that's expected. let's move to another district. let's move to -- >> he beat e