that is close to but not nearly as severe as what paul boeckler did in 1982.'t have a recession as bad as we had back then, but we will definitely have a recession as the lack impacts of this major monetary tightening start to kick in, and they haven't kicked in at all right now. >> what to think about what happens in the labor market? right now, it is really holding up fairly well in the face of everything else we are dealing with. what is your prognosis for that worsening? how bad will it get? when will it happen? is that what tips us into official recession? because that hasn't happened yet? >> well, it hasn't happened, courtney. that is precisely the point. the fact that it hasn't happened, and the fed has done a significant amount of tightening. it just tells you how much work they have to do. jay powell used the word that unfortunately, this operation is going to involve some pain. his word, not mine. pain means rising on employment. so even though the unemployment rate has got to go probably above 5%, hopefully not a whole lot higher than that, but it c