you do that by reading, which means you read paul donovan.been with the union bank .f switzerland, ubs it goes back decades and decades. hasthan ferro, paul donovan rocked forward that research with great acuity over the last number of years. jonathan: and we are lucky to have them on the program with us. fantastic to speak with you. the best way to get a real-time read on an economy right now? way is to use a very broad way of -- a broad range of data and accept a lot of the data -- we know there will be large swathes of price literally being made up. of evidence isd even more unreliable than it normally is because who in their right mind is filling in a survey in these circumstances. use very broad data but be aware of limitations in the data and expect what will be doing is finding the direction, finding the trend. what we are not doing is any kind of precision in the economic numbers. to make broad statements about where the economy is heading, we cannot afford to pretend we have precision and what we are looking at. jonathan: one thing t