paul donovan says there is some extra spending power going into 2024. paul, welcome. don't think inflation is biting quite the way the cpi might be indicating. so steve is talking about why aren't high rates having a bigger impact. you are saying why isn't measured cpi having as big of an impact. what do you see here? >> in the united states, one quarter of the inflation basket is a prize called owner's equivalent rent. it's a fantasy price, a price nobody pays. it's an attempt to measure the price of owning your own home. at the moment, it's running at just over 7% a year inflation. but nobody actually pays this price. if you are a homeowner in the united states, you either have no mortgage, so zero year over year inflation, or one of the 95% of mortgage holders who locked in your mortgage at a fixed rate with no inflation. so this fantasy price is pushing up cpi, and the reality for the middle income family that owns their own home in the united states is their personal inflation is substantially lower. so we're talking about inflation on average in the united state

paul donovan uv us as discuss the role that corporate profiteering plays in inflation while inflation has risen from 9%, as you know, prices continue climb because of supply shortages in corporate profiteering what we are starting to see greek felicia, given that rising interest rates certainly won't solve reinflation, why maintain interest rates at the current level or even consider, as you suggested, raising them, given the risk of harming the livelihoods of more than 1 million a half workers and their families? >> mister chairman, the committee broadly feels that mall monetary policy has gotten to appropriately restrictive level, if the economy performs about as it is expected, then it will be appropriate to raise hikes again this year, and perhaps twice. the strong majority of the committee feels it will be appropriate again, assuming that the economy performs is expected to times before the end of this year. it would come very far, and the reason why we maintained our rate at the last meeting is to give ourselves more time to stretch out the time for making these decisions. we mo

manus: there is a very good note from paul donovan and he talks about the u.s. consumer. when we go to write history the opening sentence should be in bold, never underestimate of the hedonism of the consumer. they are spending their savings. lisa: what we are seeing in markets is a bit of a lift in equities. it is down 10% from its peak the summer. s&p futures are under 4200. 10-year gilts are marginally higher but a massive decline on the heels of a strong gdp. there is not a lot of logic in these moves. crude prices are climbing as fears of escalation. what i am watching for today is personal income and core pce. don't get in between an american in a cash register. damien: it seems a far cry from the 2% target. there is still some would to stock. and if it's 3.4, three point five it doesn't really matter. the market will just be focused on what the fed does. lisa: president biden is meeting a chinese minister later today. we will talk to you about this later. how important is it to understand the readthrough when it comes to the middle east and china? manus: the irania