paul mccauley, talking about jackson hole tomorrow. cameron, you want to turn that wonkiness into a trade >> well, i do think there comes a point where you do want to sell two years and go long the ten-year but that is the point when you are seeing the whites of the eyes of a recession. at a 5.9% in atlanta fed gdp now today, it's too soon to make that call. so, we're sticking to the belly of the curve for now >> tlt is right at a level 4.30ish, levels from october that we topped out at, we blew through it a little bit, so, technicians will say, classic double top, yields are going lower, economy's slowing, but then you get the gdp forecast and wait a second, inflation's still a problem. it's going to go racing through. that's the rub here. if rates go higher, in my opinion, equities go lower >> we'll see if that atlanta fed sticks that's a crazy number. >>> coming up, a lot more on nvidia is the options action trading or fading the chip giant's move, next. >>> plus, heavy turbulence and boeing, as the new defects are discovered in the

paul mccauley is an ajunk professor at georgetown university and our own steve liesman. ng to both of you. paul, what do you think about the data set now we have ppi, cpi, the umich inflation that were weaker than expected on 5 to 10-year outlook. >> i think the disinflationary process is very intact and durable but we're a long way from where the fed wants to be so i think the bottom line, monetary policy is in a good place, it's restricting, inflation is coming down, but it's too early to declare that they are sufficiently restrictive. they're in a good place, but they also want to be on the side of saying we're going to be late, not early, in declaring victory. i mean, the market thinks they've been restrictive, but we'll get another jobs report and cpi report for august before the september meeting and before that jackson hole. how is it all looking to you as far as communication and policy? >> i want to make a short short-term comment we may be in the middle of the dumbest bond market sell-off i've seen. you were pointing out this portfolio management service number,