. >> paul paige. i'd like to ask each of the panelists what is your forecast for gdp in the second quarter and what do you think that will mean for president obama's re-election or mitt romney's election in november? >> i didn't bring my green eye shades so i'm not sure i can make an accurate prediction of second quarter gdp growth. it's not going to be very good. we're around 2%. i don't think we're going much over that any time soon and it certainly doesn't seem likely that we are. what does it mean for the presidential election? it mean, the figure that i looked more carefully at these days is the monthly jobs report and what that's going to tell us about the presidential outcome. i think barring a real collapse and contagion, we'll stick around where we are now which is 2% and the jobs growth of 100,000 and 200,000 per month with the unemployment rate staying 8.2, 8.18. in that scenario it's a 50/50 shot for another candidate and the debates and ad spending who has been outspent more than the othe