paul ryan got to be speaker, but nonetheless, you know, that would have been really quite different if ryan, you all will recall the speculation about ryan, and although a lot of -- you know, a lot of work happened behind the scenes, you know, there was a big chance that if ryan hadn't taken the position, it could have been chaos. and we haven't seen that in a long, long time. so it's a new world, and what i want to come back to at the end of this talk is the degree to which the really old world can help to inform the new world. okay. so very quickly, let me first of all give you an overview of what happens in this book, which by the way is probably the last 450-page book ever to be published in political science. we start in the earliest years with the speakership being decided in contests that are quasi-partisan, by which i mean political parties grew up in the early period of the republic but in the earliest days, the earliest few decades, i'll give some specifics in just a bit, there weren't caucuses in the way that we understand them now. and so there was oftentimes uncertainty, e

so this is paul ryan's problem, and this is thanks to keith pool in his blog from a few days ago. keith did an interesting plot, the democrats and the republicans by this measure that he produces a videoology and the access is how many votes members got in the last election, and pool does the following exercise. he says what if this is -- what if this is as bad an election of republicans as people can imagine. not that he's saying it will be, but what if? >> what happens if there is a seven-point swing away from the republican party in 2016 for house elections? if so, then these republicans lose. this would be an extreme swing and republicans might have a majority, but it might be 12 seats. look at who stays. the more likely you are to stay. so this -- ryan's best hope is still not going to be happy times when it comes to organizing it, but what keith doesn't say is if things get even better for the democrats and there's some miracle that the democrats take the house, the democrats who come in are likely to be the conservative democrats. so nancy pelosi or whoever the democratic n

so this is paul ryan's problem. this is thanks to keith pool. he did a interesting plot where he plays every member of the house of representatives. by this measure that he produces a ideology. these are the liberals. these are the conservatives. the why access conservatives. the why access is how many votes members got in the last election. and poole does the following exercise. he says what if this is just as bad an election for republicans as people can imagine. not saying it will be, but what if. he says what if there is a seven point swing away from the republican party in 2016 for the elections. if, so then these republicans lose. now this would be in extreme swing. republicans have been a majority, but they could be elected in the seats. look at who stay. the further the right you are the more likely you are to stay. so ryan's best hope is still not going to be happy times. but what keith does not say is that if things don't get even better for the democrats and there is some miracle that democrats leave the house, the democrats that leav

john schumer showing up a protest against congress and by law like like the time congressman paul ryan said his favorite music was rage against the machine you the machine. you're going to ready to get yourself through the whole protest. nancy pelosi, the speaker of the house, acted like she just couldn't do anything about it. she just couldn't. what can i do? but at least she doesn't have any conflicts of interest. like connections to real estate. landlords. right. back in 2011, the washington post wrote nancy pelosi and her husband, paula san francisco, real estate magnate and financial investor, or worth $42000000.00. withholding spread across property investments in northern california. since that time, open secrets reports, nancy pelosi has seen her wealth, increased to nearly a $115000000.00 from $41000000.00 in 2004. what about the bite administration? do they have any conflicts of interests? well, to tell that story, let me back up a little as the atlanta detailed between 20112017, some of the world's largest private equity groups and hedge funds, as well as other large investo

paul ryan come gointo knock on your door. >> did you just get out of jail?ling to give my last breath to save our democracy. what are you willing to give? am having trouble breathing. >> i think we have to stop. >> our time on this earth is the most precious resource we have. amy: the trailer to the new documentary "not going quietly." it premiered last night in los angeles and tonight in new york. on thursday, i had a chance to speak over zoom with ady barkan, who was at his home in santa barbara, california. wanted to start off by saying this is one of the great honors ofy life, to be talking to you. thank you so much for making this time right before the documentary is airing about your life. let me start o by aski you about the enormous business on health care --mphasis health care his country right now, even in the corporate media because the pandemic. yet there is very littl talk about medicare for all, an issue yohave dedicatedour life to. can you talk about why you have dedicated yourself to this issue? >> thank you for your career of leadership. onl

remember, even back in 2012 when he did the debate that martha raddatz hosted during the election with paul ryan, even then, nine years ago, he said he wanted to see a complete withdrawal from afghanistan. he opposed obama's move to send more troops during his first term. he has been focussed on this. that said, behind the scenes at the white house he was advised by his military advisers, his top military advisers, including his secretary of defense, the chairman of the joints chief of staff, the commander in afghanistan, not to quickly withdraw, to leave some force behind in afghanistan. he was warned by his intelligence agencies that a u.s. withdrawal would likely result in taliban gains across the country. nobody predicted as quick as it has unravelled. this is something biden has seen over and over. he has seen the military urge presidents to continue a presence in afghanistan and he believes it is time to stop. it is time for the u.s. to get out. >> we will see the consequences. this will date me here. i remember flying into afghanistan to cover the war when it started nearly 20 years ago a

back to you now, ryan. >> paul vercammen live for us. thank you so much. >>> in chicago now, thousands of live music fans are packing grant park for the lollapalooza music festival. a lot of the concerts are outdoors. that is a good. and a host of mitigation strategies in place to try and minimize the risk of spread. that's also good. >> reporter: day three of lollapalooza but also day three over concerns of the spread of covid-19. i mean when you look outside the are entrance along the fences bags can only be a certain size. you've got filming happening here, but know please have proof of vaccination ready to show. it's part of the mitigation strategies going on here at the festival. either you have to show proof of full vaccination status, proof of a negative covid-19 test within the last 72 hours to get through the gates. but also new today everyone in indoor spaces at this festival has to be wearing a mask. and that's tied directly to the rate of spread we've seen here in the chicago area much like places across the country, an incre

but after hibs took the lead through ryan porteous, paul mcgowan popped up with seven minutes to go toalf in the other games. aberdeen or hearts could both go top with a win — and it's hearts who have struck first, 1—0 there. champions rangers are 3—1 up against ross county — alfredo morelos with the third goal. and in the last few minutes, dundee united have taken the lead at saintjohnstone. and finally... what a summer it's been for great britain's beth shriever — just three weeks after winning olympic gold in the bmx in tokyo, the 22—year—old has now been crowned world champion. shriver had a great start and that proved to be key. there was a crash just behind her that took out three riders, including defending champion alise willoughby. that gave shriver an advantage she never looked like losing. she's britain's second female world bmx champion, following in the footsteps of shanaze reade to wear the famous rainbow jersey. that's all the sport for now. i'll have more for you in the next hour. look forward to that, austen. thank you. a state of emergency has been declared in parts o

but after hibs took the lead through ryan porteous, paul mcgowan popped up with seven minutes to go to there. well, aberdeen or hearts could both go top with a win this afternoon — they're playing right now at tynecastle. champions rangers havejust gone a goal up against ross county — joe aribo with the goal there. and stjohnstone are taking on dundee united. those games have all kicked off at 3pm. to some sad news now, and the former liverpool and england midfielder, terry mcdermott, has been diagnosed with dementia. the 69—year—old made more than 300 appearances for liverpool between 1974 and 1982. he announced he's in the early stages of dementia following tests — just days after the manchester united and scotland legend, denis law, was diagnosed with the condition. last month, it was announced that professional footballers in england will be limited to ten so—called "higherforce headers" a week in training. dawn astle's father, the former west brom and england strikerjeff astle, died in 2002. a neuropathologist said the death was due to a brain condition caused by heading footballs

paul: like boise plumber ryan canke who makes $50,000 a year, has a strong credit score. he and his girlfriend looked for months. >> we got a loan for $300,000 and everything that was priced underneath $300,000 just immediately had offers, some cash, that were way over. this is the new normal for house hunting. paul: not getting the house. >> not getting the house. paul: so he's renting instead but for disabled vietnam vet gary wiltermood, even renting is next to impossible. he's lived in a house at the edge of a trailer parkor 15 years and the owners want him out. >> they've tried every maneuver to get me out of there. they can put in like four or five apartment places in the property that i'm on. paul: but other boise rentals are out of reach. >> i'm pced out of the market. i can't find a place. i'm so desperate, i don't know what to do. paul: as wiltermood's lawyer, brian stevens puts it. >> if you're low income person, it's a hard time to be in boise. paul: there are signs of cooling off in recent weeks. inventory is up and developers are scrambling to build more but

paul: springer panel wall street columnist and senior fellow, and jason ryan columnist bill.learned about president invited in the last week in the afghan decision and his political character and belief system and what it says about his presidency in the last week. guest: i think it shows that he is colossal bad judgment and he's unwilling to admit mistakes when they have and what it looks to me as if back in july, he was telling us this is going to be a cakewalk not going to have any of these rooftop seems likely that in saigon. and so if he was predicting, he didn't tell us about it then of course once you screw up, you will make it sound like it was inevitable party to this with it what about five years ago work 15 years ago is, i think it is all about avoiding images in july he's telling us that he didn't want helicopters on the above the pilots are given orders not to men of the rooftop no matter what and i think he's worried about a black hawk down some kind of accident. helicopters go down all the time rate is something that he's concentrating on avoiding what he think

ryan. today from the docu- series my dirt road diary, luke bryan. plus the world champion sign spinner gives the co-hosts a lesson in twirling, flipping and spinning. also a saint paul

western starring robert ryan, william holden, and the cast of characters goes on and on, both truly one of the real stars is this browning water cooled belt fed machine gun. tech and paul went through a quarter of 1 million 30-06 planks using this gun in the final scene of the great should out of the mexican general headquarters south of the border, and if you look at the ammo box, here you can still see some of the fake blood splatter from warren oats and ben johnson on the mo box during that final scene. to kind of close things out with the hollywood, guns for someone that grew up in a house that wasn't fire arms-friendly as a, kid there were no guns in the, house it was through the movies and televisions that i gained my love and admiration of firearms, with the meant to american history, especially all the military and the cowboy films that i was so enamored. with this helps to kind of established connection with those stars of the silver screen that we grew up admiring. most of us before we ever had an opportunity to handle or fire a real firearm of our own. in the hunting galleries of the national of our own. in the hunting galleries of the national firearms muse