reason the commodity hit its lowest level on friday is up more than 8% this week let's bring in paul sankeysankey research for more of what 2020 brings. paul, good to see you. we've seen the lows for crude you think? >> this year, i think so if you look back at 2018 we had very similar market action that we expect every year from labor day into the beginning of winter which is essentially what we've seen, a significant falloff in prices, since labor day essentially down to the lows that we saw. if you look at what happened from '18 into '19, we saw crude hard into driving season looking for $120 brent which would be $115 by driving season which we may next year, in 2023. the answer to your question is yes. >> what happens with energy equities with this backdrop? >> that's a very interesting question, melissa. what we've seen on the downside certainly for the first part of the big down move in crude, energy equities outperformed, didn't go down as much as oil did. they were okay with a move down to 80. i think when the risk got below 80, then it became a problem for the equities in that last

group largely expected to stick to its target of cutting by 2 million barrels a day let's bring in paul sankeyat to have you on >> good morning. >> so a lot going on here. opec meeting coming up on sunday a lot of other macro factors including china's delayed reopening, potential energy crisis in europe what are you expecting from the opec+ meeting, any big surprises? >> i don't think so, no. simply because as you say the cross currents this time of year is very tricky with winter literally starting m metrologically this week, very difficult to make a call on how tight or loose the market will be right here. as you know they are already out there with what they said would be a 2 million barrel a day cut at the last meeting which i actually attended in vienna. and they haven't really forced had through. so really the parameters are there for them to cut if they feel the market is getting too loose. one thing is that the price has come down a lot and we think saudi would prefer prices more like $100 brent where right now they are $20 below that more or less so you have to keep an eye on how the

. >> in terms of peaks i talked to paul sankey and he said he expects $120 a barrel p.is not the average. that would imply the prices going back to what we saw in the summer like $5 a gallon. >> we don't expect that. i think that is a common perception across the market we will see prices in triple digits here by all means, we could see that. we have seen the volatility this year on wti in march with over $120 did the same in june as well by all means, we could pop up above it the thing we are still remaining for the majority of the year below that level >> matt smith, thanks. >> thank you. >>> coming up, the debate as oldest as commercial flights should babies be allowed in first class. that conversation after this i already know i'm on the losing side of this debate. >>> later, we talk about the challenges for congress in the new year with representative brendan boyle. "squawk box" is coming back after this >> announcer: currency check is sponsored by interactive brokers. the professionals gateway to the world's markets. ♪ icy hot pro. ♪ ice works fast... to freeze yo