let's begin with the call by paul tudor jones speaking exclusively to cnbc and saying the rally looks far from over even if interest rates continue to go up >> if you go look at what is shut out the stock market historically, it's been real rates on the front end of sometf 200, 250 basis points. we're negative right now so when you have got a lot of tech companies growing at 20% per year, who cares about 100 basis points who cares, right so i think you'll see rates go up and stocks go up in tandem at the end of the year. i can see things getting crazy, particularly at year end, after the midterm elections. i can see them getting crazy to the upside >> that's paul tudor jones you rarely hear from him, but you did today. >> don't you love him saying they could get crazy he means that in a good way. he's talking about technology stocks i think the one thing that's being lost a little bit atimes is how impressive retail has been optop of all the rest of this, we talk about energy, we talk about financials, we talk about all this stuff, and retail continues to be strong, including today. w

and paul tudor jones gave the market very bullish. but nice open.mentioned we're off the highs here retail started strong. went negative. that's been amonster for the past three weeks since the earnings came out. banks have been another market leader that come to the floor. consumer discretionary historic high yesterday teches modest gains so far today. what is moving markets well, you know, overnight all the discussions look at the g7 meetings and what has been going on no market reaction to the g7 or the north korea summit a lot of people talking about markets getting desensitized it's the at&t time warner merger and the fed going on you can see in the market reaction look at the media stoc going into the time warner decision today. we'll be talking about it at 4:00 p.m. eastern. nice move in the last two or three weeks. you're getting some hope that sentiment might prove from the judge rules in favor for the at&t you can see it in the reaction as for the fed, you heard it from the guys. job performance has been outstanding. wage inflation 2.7%. t

let's begin with the call by paul tudor jones speaking exclusively to cnbc and saying the rall

think paul tudor jones is right.t it should go up 150 i don't know whether they have the guts i look at the global market. and what you have to do if the u.s. goes in that direction, one impact is on emerging markets. what i'm worried about which mohamed el-erian underestimated, i think, is risks in emerging markets particularly in turkey with the elections coming up >> whatever you think about it, paul tudor jones is trending nationally on twitter. he kicked off a conversation that people are taking up from here steve, thank you very much >> pleasure. >>> folks, we are continuing our special coverage of president trump and kim jong-un's hi summit in singapore today. joining us right now is brookings institute senior fellow michael o'hanlon. thank you for waiting patiently for us while we've been going through all of this. but your take on this just hours after the summit is this a situation you're looking at with glass half full or glass half empty? >> hi, becky it's just a tiny first step. it's a good first step i

. >>> he was famous for calling the 1987 crash and he rarely gives interviews but paul tudor jones did speak out on "squawk box" to andrew ross sorkin and expectedtock market rally aftee novemb midterm elections. >> i think we'll see rates move significantly higher beginning some time late third quarter, early fourth quarter and i think it will be interesting because i think the stock market also has the ability to go a lot higher at the end of the year. >> jones says the market action is u.s.-entered right now but expect a summer lull and heel thinks the fed is behind the curve on raising rates, saying they should be 150 base points let's join our quests. what do you think that stocks will go up with rates rising in the third and fourth quarter >> we've had eight to ten years of very, very aggressive interest rate policy if you look at historical measures, take inflation and add a spread to it, the fed funds rate should be 3, 3.25 and the ten-year should be under normal circumstances 4 positito 4.5 we're adjusting from the change from free money to more normalized policy. i think the

i think folks like paul tudor jones who got started trading in the '70s, the rate of the levels do notlike and gut says they need to be higher whether that's true in today's economy -- >> that's the trillion dollar question >> it is >> mike, you made that point, and it's spot on is a different time, this is a different market, and not to say where they are getting their information is not valid by any means, but just to say it does not feel right is not necessarily the right answer >> i also wonder, though, approaches this from -- saying, i look at the financial markets, signs of imbalances, talking about how we have budget deficits, we have, you know, not the surplus situation weid last time, looking at the stock market, you know, if that's your dash board, does that signal to you, hey, we can handle this, versus if you loo t at inflation rates, for example, and i don't know if you're coming from a financial markets point of view, that's different from what the economists are looking at if you look at the earnings yield, the earnings yield for stocks of the s&p 500 is so much higher t

ten-year, by the way, he made this call, he sees a 67% yield in the ten-year in three years we had paul tudor jones say things could get crazy at the end of the year. are we in the get while the getting is good environment, doc, and man, who knows what's going to happen down the road? >> well, even, i think steph yesterday was saying maybe we see some sort of recession fears generating into late 2019, early 2020, judge, and so forth. we've heard those kinds of tach statements from other smart folks on the desk. as rebecca said, nobody can time this perfectly i'm looking for opportunity here and i see it everywhere. i mean, i see it in, you know, the media companies right now, disca. discovery. just screaming higher. making just a great move over the past two weeks, not just since this announcement but for the 2 weeks, 2 1/2 weeks leading up to it you look at the gaming stocks. on fire. atvi missed it by 50 cents so far so it gets the new high tomorrow >> ea is killing it. >> ea is killing it. so much going on >> big, big media stocks, disney a two-day move that we haven't seen in a long time. >> ye

the value-based fund from goldman sachs and billionaire paul tudor jones begins trading under the tickerust. it will invest in the top 50% of the russell 1000, according to rankings compiled by jones' non-profit, just capital foundation. just corporate behavior includes worker pay, a safe workplace, privacy protection, and truthful advertising. and for some, the final stage is liquidation. the deutsche extractor hedged equity etf is delisting after three years on the market. debs invested in small caps, or developed market equities while hedging out currency risk. it is time to get passive aggressive, where we track the shots fired in the battle between active and passive investors. for all the concerns that institutions are abandoning active managers, adopting etf's en masse, the numbers don't bear that out. who better to discuss this than kat sweeney, head of spider america's institutional sales. i'm so excited i cannot get my words out. surveys show that institutions are increasingly using more etf's, but they manage so much money it is only about 1% of assets under management by inst

a rare conversation with legendary investor paul tudor jones. he will be with us at 8:00 a.m.ively we'll be right back. dor jones. he'll be with us at 8:00 a.m. tomorrow exclusively we'll get down to the new york stock exchange jim cramer joins us now. the world continues to turn. even though north korea is on, you know, everyone's mind and we're looking forward to the at&t/time warner decision tomorrow, as well. what in the micro world, what have you seen today that strikes your fancy >> well, i think that there are a bunch of just pure reiterations that are driving the market i saw a reiteration from dart. and then we got the envision health care bid. what happens is we're getting bids we're getting people talking about stocks being too cheap stocks continue to go up sonic overrun the piece target match has overrun people's price target what happened is we struggle to try to figure out how to integrate north korea into the stock market say that have very little to do with each other. north korea is a political sorry. we would love to make it into a stock story. we struggle t

when you have guys like paul tudor jones say we're going to melt up at the end of the year, i don't know how you wouldn't expect all of these fang stocks to melt up with it i'm a reluctant fade it. >> a reluctant fade it >> all of that -- >> to get to fade it >> what do you want from me? i don't know. >> that's a good question. they go higher every day and for a lot of market participants they are looking for some sort of growth and they think fang is idiosyncratic growth it keeps going higher and higher at what point do you pull the rip cord or do you just go with the market >> if you're asking for what would i be looking for for the reason to pull the rip cord, it would be a move to the upside on ridiculous amount of volume. four to six times volume on a day the market goes up marginally maybe that could be the blow off top. we haven't seen that though. >> what i would be looking for would be to see amazon finally start to see a little bit more of a dent in the aws from microsoft, from all the different competitors who have a piece of that pie. right now it's amazon. >> the erms of gro

. >> mike, it's why people like paul tudor jones and edward denny are making these predictions. ptj with things could get crazy to the end of the year, it's not like people are saying the sky's falling and the whole thing's going to fall apart tomorrow >> no, not at all. i mean, the s&p coming into today was on track for like a 10% total return this year okay it feels awful and we're saying, is boeing down enough to buy by the way, it's up 70% from two months ago is it up too much to sell? this is not something talking about the markets telling you we're at a critical point. the volatility market index is under 14 high yield spreads are calm. the general backdrop is fine, it just doesn't have to feel very easy or rewarding for things to be fine. and i think that is one thing that has taken six months to kind of get used to. maybe we're not used to it yesterday. >> so we had negative common tear on intel, the stock had a great run. maybe it's time to get out of it nike gets a positive mention today by a couple of firms barclays goes to 80 bucks from 75 what do we think about nike

growth remains strong nap all of thaer means this bull market can likely continue through 2019 >> paul tudor jonesterday haan interesting outlook he said he expects rates will rise faster than people are anticipating but also a chance markets could melt up. o. >> that will cause rates to move up faster than we think. until that happens, we're not seeing that yet. the marketd continue to melt up. the question is can the s&p break through that level sustainably. about where the market will get. people become confident in earnings growt >> jim, what do you think? where's kind of fair value or where are we headed? >> i like the melt up scenario i think the fed is raising rates and markets. that's consistent with history i see that too if you look at a midterm election year, markets startstr strongly but below average 6% to 8% that would be 265 on the dow >> you don't think we've seen the lows of the year >> no. i think we're going to be range bound until through the midterm election if history is a guide, a strong pop in november and december >> so what do you tell people to do right now if you think

really would be the only thing that holds them back from being very hawkish i agree with what paul tudor jones said yesterday i look at trade wars as more of an irritant than anything else i think we are sowing the seeds for a third and fourth quarter >> for more on the fed, let's bring in former dallas fed president richard fisher who joins us live in london. richard, great to have you with us >> thank you >> what would you do today, and what would you signal to the markets? >> i think what you just heard is spot on i mean, basically, we have a economy. we're at full employment or better we're seeing a slow but nonetheless identifiable increase in inflationary pressures. the 2% intermediate term target is being reached, and in fact, the new york fed series of inflation data is punching through that and there's one other factor at play here. we're running nine years into the economic cycle the record is ten years. march of '91 to march of 2001. given the fiscal propulsion we've gotten from the tax bill and given the fact that regulation is much more business friendly these days and more financ

paul tudor jones said it's due to this interest-rate policy that you have seen housing crises, markets -- housing prices, market prices reaching levels. jan: yes, but we are monitoring this. there is no fundamental inconsistency between a monetary objective and what we are doing. you need monetary stability and to help price stability the economy to recover in order to have a sound financial system. have a sound financial system and financial stability if the economy is not growing. it's true in the environment of low interest rates can create some search for yield and , itaps to some levels depends on what you are seeing locally. we should address this locally as we are doing and belgium. jan: thanks so much. president of the belgian national central bank. ♪ julia: this is "bloomberg daybreak: americas." i'm julia chatterley. let me give you a look at how the futures are performing, and the president indicating possibly a billion dollars worth of tariffs. , 385ow jones off by 1.5% points. slightly.me back s&p futures lower by 1.3%. europe also taking a hit. a bit of flight to safety

and, tomorrow, a don't miss interview on "squawk box," exclusive and rare conversation with paul tudor jonesock crash and other calls over the years. that's tomorrow 8:00 a.m. on squawk box >>> trading nation, looking at the banks, near session lows selling negative for the session and market gearing up for bank meetings, bracing for interest rate decisions what is the trade on financials? chris burn is here, and phil with blueline futures. chris, within the financials, bullish specifically on the regional banks, nigh to do with the fed meeting this week? >> it helps. when you look at the group, especially over the last number of weeks, while bigger ones struggle, smaller ones acted fantastic here we have the krx, and this group essentially has been consolidated the better part of the last year and a half, just coming out of the space, and most importantly, it's doing it in relative terms as well. these are six month relative ties for regionals sending a positive message, all good charts to own here >> they've been bigger beneficiaries of the deregulation game from washington bill, regional

the biggest outflows and if there's more turbulence in the u.s >>> tomorrow, interview with paul tudor jonesive for a very rare interview tomorrow at 8:00 a.m. eastern time. don't miss "squawk box" tomorrow kicking off at 4:00 a.m. we are back here in a couple minutes. (baby crying) (slow jazz music) ♪ fly me to the moon ♪ and let me play (bell ring) >>> welcome back, everybody, dow hanging on to a 46 point gain, mostly higher for the major averages ahead of the north korea summit in a couple hour's time as a waiting game, and all of the other news, of course, anticipated for the rest of the week rough week for markets up until now including last week's selloff in bra sazil markets. >> for more if increasing tensions leads to fears in the u.s., dennis joins us, equity strategist at ubs. very good afternoon to you first quesgues not so much the trade tension, but centrally is the rising dollar seen in the last few months an issue for the emerging market equities >> always, always a negative for emerging market equities when the dollar rises, that brings money back in the u.s investors shake o

i don't know if he's right paul tudor jones some people are starting to worry about the level of debtrvice that we're going to owe based on rising interest rates. and that's going to spell the end of this goldilocks scenario we've been in for awhile are you cognizant of that? >> of course >> is that is good reason to think the market -- i mean, people are starting to use the "c" word again and i'm not talking about that other "c." i'm talking about the crash "c" word >> the fact is the government deficit is very high going north of a trillion dollars. it's both the medium term and a long run don't forget when the cbo does its budget, it looks at interest rates. so if you look at the cbo's latest projections, i don't want to give the fed advice i respect their independence then they are assuming an upward path that is one reason the deficits are going high the end t president said he's not going to accept a spending deal like the one we saw this year. and getting ahead of the curve on spending is the way to get ahead. >> you know, the other thing that the aei probably stands for, a lot

. >> we have paul tudor jones on a couple weeks ago have you seen it >> you have not. >> i'm curiousally minded etfs and whether you think that's real or it's all made up >> it's real you're seeing huge client interest now with investing. so what that means is whatever the historic data tells you, clients are carining more about these going forward. we're looking for resistance in the portfolios i think this is going to be one of the characteristics you need to pay attention to. >> thank you, richard. good to have you on. much appreciated >>> coming up, oil on the move ihs market vice chairman and pugh li pulitzer prize winning author joins us we'll see if he feels the same way after opec's move. here's the mixed to flat open on the futures. "squawk box" will be right back whoooo. when it comes to travel, i sweat the details. late checkout... ...down-alternative pillows... ...and of course, price. tripadvisor helps you book a... ...hotel without breaking a sweat. because we now instantly... ...search over 200 booking sites ...to find you the lowest price... ...on the hotel you want.