we will hear from paul tudor jones.will join us at the table on set to discuss everything that is going on from the war now in israel and some of the geopolitical issues and federal reserve and kocommodities and more. you don't want to miss it. "squawk box" is coming back after this. (fisher investments) in this market, you'll find fisher investments is different than other money managers. (other money manager) different how? aren't we all just looking for the hottest stocks? (fisher investments) nope. we use diversified strategies to position our client's portfolios for their long-term goals. (other money manager) but you still sell investments that generate high commissions for you, right? (fisher investments) no, we don't sell commission products. we're a fiduciary, obligated to act in our client's best interest. (other money manager) so when do you make more money, only when your clients make more money? (fisher investments) yep. we do better when our clients do better. at fisher investments, we're clearly different

just curious if you agree with paul tudor jones and his asse assessment and rates and the potential to us into a recession? >> i would agree with paul tudor jones in terms of a recession coming. that has been my baseline for quite some time. but not because of higher yields. i disagree the yields are going to head much higher. i think before they head much higher, give it a ceiling of 5% for the ten-year, something is going to break within the system. my top candidate is the u.s. banking system. remember, recall what happened in 2007, 2008. already bank deposits are under pressure moving over to treasury bills and money market funds. even some of the larger u.s. banks have suffered a drop in equity prices. i think all of those are going to result in what you call, quote, unquote, credit event. whether it comes more bank figures like we saw in march or whether you see it in terms of commercial real estate collapse or in terms of a credit crunch. the fed is soon going to have to shift over from inflation mitigation to what it calls saving the system. that will bring the yields down, lesl

the stock market is precarious if you ask paul tudor jones or jamie dimon. they both came out with comments saying this is the most dangerous precarious geopolitical time they have ever seen. why get the corner office and be a hero investing when you could get over 5% for two years. kind of paying out and see how it happens because i have to remind folks all the time the historical return on stock market is 7% or 8%, with some good tax indications and no risk. don't see why you want to swing for the defense right now. stuart: that's what i did the other day, some fresh money, 5.07% treasury operation. i was looking for some approval and got it from you and i appreciate that. see you soon. i see nvidia. lauren: president biden will cut china off, to stop them from getting cutting edge technology so they can straighten their military and that does include the 800 chips, stock is down 5%. stuart: dollar tree. what's with that? >> goldman sachs says by it, they see strong earnings growth potential, stock is up 2.8%. stuart: do they make shoes? >> yes. north base

i want to you listen to what paul tudor jones said on "squawk" and we can discuss. here is ptj. >> it's a really challenging time to want to be an equity investor in u.s. stocks. again, you have the geopolitical uncertainty which we've come to live with to a certain extent. >> he suggested you get a recession, stocks could go down 12% programs. jamie dimon thought geopolitical risk was the biggest for investors still. >> i think the biggest risk in terms of probability weighted scenarios is still a recession. the median recession over the last 100 years sees meaningful down draw in earnings with a drawdown in the equity markets. that 12% to 13% down is a reasonable estimate. geopolitical risk can be meaningful because it takes the market by surprise. it's really the underlying elements or structural elements of the risk that drive the market behavior. that tends to be narratives around inflation, if we're thinking about the risk we're seeing now, a playbook the market has gotten to know. >> liz ann, do you want to comment on what paul told "squawk box" this morning?

you've got this and paul tudor jones was talking about the overall state of our fiscal house here ind uncertainties as they pile together, does it start to have an impact on investor sentiment that could cause them to maybe ignore some of the fundamentals or at least involving consensus in earnings and things like that is this. >> -- >> i know paul well. risk premium wise it looks like the market has been expensive. unlikely to get a p/e multiple expansion, so you're likely to get valuations around these levels which is why the fundamentals of what's driving the market is earnings. rates going to stay at these levels until the early part of next year which is an impediment to a higher p/e expansion, multiple expansion, going to come down to fundamentals, sales and margins and the economy. don't have a recession in the forecast. expectations are the economy continues to grow at a decelerating rate, inflation lower. positive developments, but cash is yielding 5% and that's pretty attractive in this environment. >> you are still year end target on the 10-year is 4.3. >> coming down to t

who have a global look and wide ranging look with credit and equities, gold, et cetera, like paul tudor jones and others, saying this is the worth time to invest, and i'm paraphrasing, because of the risk profile. the way i look at it, there may be a seasonal fourth quarter rally but from what level? >> let me go down to emily wilkins in d.c. following the vote as republicans try and elect a speaker of the house. what's the latest here? >> reporter: scott, republicans and the entire house has finished their third vote for speaker and, again, jim jordan has fallen short of the 217 needed to get the gavel. he's lost more support than ever before. 25 republicans decided to vote for someone else other than jordan, all of those throw are members from critical districts to one. they could forfeit the majority if they were to lose in 2024. this begs the question, where do republicans go from here? we are hearing reports they will huddle again, they spent four hours behind closed doors and don't seem to be closer to a solution. those who oppose jordan say they will continue to oppose him and those wh

paul tudor jones, recession likely. stock market will decline about 12%. i listen to him when he's on because he makes great points every time he's on. what about this idea, though? recession likely. stocks may decline 12%. >> if you look at the market weighted, maybe that happens. we were talking about the small caps and mid caps. if you get multiple compression and advertising slows down and multiple compression on the big stocks, you still have other places to play. that's why being in the index will be tough. you can play around the edges and do well. >> for most of this year he's been negative. >> astute enough investor if he sees something different he'll call it differently. a lot of people -- >> i understand, but the recession call is one many people have made, and it hasn't happened and the likelihood seemed higher the last couple of months and now is coming back down perhaps again if we don't get another rate hike. >> are we getting the recession because the fed went too strong or because we have a demand issue? if it's the first you could be dow

the markets, which i have absolutely no understanding of, totally mystifying, and i agree with paul tudor joneshat this is as scary a global environment as you have right now. we have two wars underway in two different regions of the world. alix: i guess the question is what is the reason for that? is that that we are focused on the macro central-bank story, is the transmission mechanism oil and that is calmer. hedging geopolitical risks since brexit did not make you money and i wondering what the issue is. ralph: i think the markets, as we discussed a little bit earlier, have been so focused on how high that the fact that we are probably not going to go higher at all or much higher for sure is a relief. if you look at the stock market, the s&p is about 16% on the year on essentially flat to down a little earnings. 100% of the movement in stocks have occurred by multiple expansion. so we need earnings to come through in a major way to justify the valuations. guy: do you think we are in a new paradigm? we have seen financial or asset price inflation and a period where we have seen low rates and

i exchanged emails with martin whitaker, one of the founders, with paul tudor jones today. his exact words were, i don't think that we could drive the dialogue by saying anything. are you out of your mind? are you kidding me? now is the time where you say something. so this is in reaction to that, this is time to take a stand. he is not taking a stand and their mission is blurred and side tracked. so i re-sisigned from the advis board and sold the shares. period. >> okay, all right. well, thank you for updating that. >>> coming up, we're tracking the trades, more of them. one committee member making big moves in energy and the chips today. we'll break those down plus more on what's driving boeing lower today when we come back. based on your goals, whatever they may be. all that planning has paid off. looks like you can make this work. we can make this work. and the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice? i can make this work. that seems to be universal. i can make this work. i can make this work. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us.

so, if paul tudor jones is correct, and at some point early next year, we are in a recession, that's the next shoe to drop, when you talk about the so-c so-called magnificent seven, they are going to be the ones that lead to the downside. they've made their business really efficient. they refinance their debt, they're getting paid 5% -- >> they don't have debt. >> well, on a net basis, but like, they refinance debt. >> my biggest takeaway was the guy with the big short claim to fame told you you're probably too negative. >> yeah. i guess my point is that i -- i think they lead to the downside, because markets, investors are going to sniff it out. we haven't talked about a decrease in enterprise spending, and that will be one of the things that gets hit when it becomes very clear we're seeing weakening economic data. >> well, that could happen, but i want to say, if it's a balance sheet thing, that is where you want to hide -- >> i'm saying that's why the money's going there right now, because i think a lot of folks feel that when it was a drag on these companies' valuation, because t

i keep hearing the big dogs here keep mentioning this, you know, paul tudor jones was on the air, they keep mentioning this, and sooner or later, chickens have to come home to roost. >> we in our collective investing lifetimes have probably been focused on this issue as a question of when, not if, for probably 20 years. and frankly, if you had shorted bonds in response to that trade, you were a consistent money loser. that's no longer the case, and i think when you look at the past 30 days in particular with this gridlock and the dysfunction in washington, that's part of the bond market saying that deficits matter now. >> julian, thank you very much for your perspective. a complicated time to be sure, appreciable it. >>> let's trade what julian just said. you go first. >> why why don't you take what he said and apply it. >> you've got the push pull in stimulus, and the quantitative tightening essentially trying to work off. it's a matter of time, as i said before, so i would report that qt is going to flow in. i actually think bonds, at least intermittently, you can probably short thos

we have hall of fame investors, paul tudor jones, stan druckenmiller, ken jones, all of the greatestfor anybody that cares about the investment markets, this concert is a taylor swift ticket. and then the other thing, the thing that makes it really exciting is anybody that buys a ticket and attends, it's a great thing. but at the same time every single dollar is going to go out on the street to those organizations that are helping the people most in need. so it's a great thing and it's a great event, and people should check it out because they'll love it. >> you've been a longtime supporter of robinhood. check it out on robinhood.org. >>> when we come back, we've got top stocks on the move in the premarket this morning. we've also got some takeaways for another big warning from the big banks. 'lte you all about it when we come right back right here on "squawk box." power e*trade's easy-to-use tools, like dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis help make trading feel effortless. and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market. e*

. >> this is the conversation you and i had earlier in the week after paul tudor jones was on "squawk >> ill advised. >> your notion is that opportunity will always exist, despite whatever backdrop you're given in your lifetime. >> was there opportunity december 8, 1941? that was problematic. was there opportunity when jimmy carter was president and he basically told you, listen, there's really no reason for hope? and i know he's a sainted figure, but i was alive during the period, and i said, geez, maybe we're not in a good time. or with the hostages, when reagan came in and he was saying, listen, we're going to bomb iran, and that's a frightening concept. >> does it strike you as odd, though, that given the news this week, the dow is on pace to break a four-week loss. >> that's what i want to ask larry fink about. that is the conundrum that tells me that i'm right. that you can have all these things that the rich people -- and i really want to make it a little class warfare, and i don't like class warfare, but there are a lot of people who come on our network who have made a lot of