at the end of it and stagflation or a period paul volcker. jack rates the bond market collapsed and that was probably the last time the actual price discovery in a major market in america because starting in the 1980 s. and particularly after the crash of 87 who are greenspan robert rubin and reagan interceded and start to buy stocks for their the house account in washington d.c. you haven't had crisis coverage has been price fixing as spend the price of money itself or interest rates as a pole of bureau of bureaucrats in washington that establishes those rights and now 5th you know 40 years later it's predictable way a predictable collapse because they haven't had free market capitalism in 3540 years in america it's been oligarchies and the oligarchies these billionaires they didn't do it because they're smart they did it because they stole it you know warren buffett's got to be probably the the guy who is transferred more wealth say hey. personally but views ing accounting fraud and market manipulation and s. 3 right is never invented anyth

because there is huge inflation and there are the rates should be going up aggressively like say as paul volcker did in the seventy's to stem the inflation that's a way to run an economy but to have the worst of both worlds and say we're going to have hyperinflation take off while we're keeping jamie diamond's free open money spigot from the fed at 0 percent and warren buffett and jolly monger right that's the recipe for otter fricke them collapse a low does anyone care yeah on the one hand a signaling deflation but on the other hand it's also a signaling that banks like j.p. morgan don't want to lend to ordinary investor ordinary small businesses because they know those are going to be crushed perhaps in biden's tax blunder because the megacorporations well and it's also perhaps showing 'd that inflation is even going to get worse because you know probably this is the fed just buying the treasuries you know debt like it's just the banana republican is and we've covered that with it's happening in canada it's happening. and they and european union and so it's just that it's the same thing it's m

i reflect on what adam posen said, it will be a 100 basis points, but not a paul volcker era. if the debate becomes more live, why december 2023, futures not spike higher? this is what we were told a few weeks ago. do you think it will be 100 basis points when it comes? martin: i think the rates market repricing. a very clearly you need word that janet yellen is not treading into policy, it really is the fed and they have independence with policy. the fed policy is new because they will accept inflation levels way above 2%. coming wise, that is what we will see in april-june. inflation levels may spike as much is 3%, but most people are trying to push that it is transitory. inflation lester was 0%. -- it will go back toward low 2% levels later this year and the fed will remain positive on easing. even on fiscal policy, janet yellen was more balanced than trillions and trillions of deficit spending. it is more nuanced, and that is why i would recommend people look at the entirety of the 20 minutes rather than a few seconds. manus: you are right. i chose four words and i know th

we are not at -- the markets are not expecting a paul volcker to come out of a jay powell. nonetheless, they look very surprised by this number for which i thought they were preparing over the last few days. what kind of reaction are you seeing? katie: it is interesting. i will say my birthday is next tuesday and i was not alive in the 1980's. if you look at how markets are pricing inflation -- ira: now i really feel old. katie: it hit another high today. the highest since 2005. if you look at the 10 year breakeven rate, it is still lower than the five-year rate. if you look at the markets, the jury is out on whether this is the transitory birth that will fade in 10 years later from now, we will not be in the same inflation environment that we will be in the coming years. that is what the market is trying to grapple with. that is tug-of-war that tech stocks are caught in right now. when you talk about the more growth names in the market, those names that have cash flows expected in the future, those are the fears that really matter and really dictate how people trade those

under control, and it's remained under control for 30-plus years. [ applause ] >> you appointed paul volckerremember that very well. and then came panama, which was one of the toughest issues any president -- five of your predecessors had failed to solve that problem of the panama canal, but you took it on. by all accounts, the canal today is a huge success in terms of our security, economically, in every possible way. do you have any reflections on that and how tough it was? >> it was the most difficult issue i've faced in my life, even more difficult than being elected president. >> wow. >> and i think it was the most courageous decision ever been made by the u.s. congress in history. for instance, there were 20 senators who voted for the canal treaties in 1978, who were up for re-election that year. only seven of them came back the following january, 7 out of 20. the attrition rate was almost as great two years later in 1980, including a president who was not re-elected. and i think this has been one of the best examples on the sincerity and the confidence of the united states in supporti

i did a standard deviation study on a monthly basis of core cpi back to the time of paul volcker.around 1990, i can find a jump condition in core cpi like we see now. we do interview after interview where experts like you say it is about the jump we see in inflation. right now we are seeing a jump i would suggest is near original. how do we respond to that? jason: the economy will do weird things. we saw a collapse that was historic last year in prices. we are seeing -- some of what we are seeing now is the unwinding of that. some of what we are seeing is different sectors come back. i would not leap all the way to where we are not worried about inflation, now we are worried about hyperinflation. it is 0.9 from now on. what i'm saying is a recalibration of these discount the data a lot because of the weirdness, do not discount the data all the way. jonathan: let's recap the data. jason, stay close. the s&p 500 to decline on the back of that upside surprise. we are down .7%. the nasdaq rocketing lower, and then bouncing back a little bit. still -1.3%. in the bond market you would e