is a greater inversion and we are back to the paul volcker years in the 1980's.ay, an odd job -- an odd jobs day, we were briefed by the chief u.s. economist of economics. i want to dovetail your sound market economics with what nick turner, our tech division, because the new tech austerity. explain jobs friday with the tech austerity we are seeing in different shades from lift app -- clickbank -- lyft, amaxon and the rest. >> we are expecting to see a shift in the labor market. we are looking at jobs data. some shifts in the economy. what we are really seeing is just not a broad-based weakening of conditions. the labor market is still very tight. demand for markets is still very tight. if you look at the job openings and the unemployed signals, they are still very strong in terms of underlying strength of the labor market. we have seen rising claims over the last three weeks. we are watching for signals of a ship right -- a shift but right now there is nothing to suggest. deceleration is very robust into the unemployment rate is not coming off of a 50 year low.

, "keeping at it" which by the way is also the title of paul volcker's biography. y, the fed chair made it clear he was going full volcker and keeping at it. we understand that the mistakes obviously that the federal reserve has made in the past and 80s we always talk about that, but there are differences, this time around and maybe at some point powell & company will have to slow down and pause, i want to bring in main stay capital management ceo chief investment strategist david kudla. and david, the u.s. is the most aggressive central bank out there. the rest are starting to hint at they are going to slowdown, maybe pause the bank of england for instance. should powell be listening to what they are trying to do? >> yeah, we've had, you know, the united nations, even called for central banks to lighten up on the interest rate increases, because of fear of a global recession. we have countries that have dollar denominated debt as the dollar keeps getting stronger, it creates problems for them, but the fed has a dual mandate that doesn't, is not impacted by either o

slowing the pace maybe wise, and as much as i want inflation to be lifted and as much as i admire paul volckere are a couple of key differences now than when volcker was fighting inflation. one is the baseline, where the fed is starting is so much lower, so the fed funds rate which is the short-term rate that they target, was at .08% at the beginning of the year. it's almost four now. you're looking at it like a 5,000 percent increase over where you started. you know, even when volcker was raising rates it's more like 50% increase year-over-year, so the whole world has become so used to these near-zero interest rates, and governments in particular have levered up a lot , again, i think when volcker was chair in 1980 government debt-to-gdp was around 30% and now it's around 122%, so that limits the flexibility to the fed given the massive reliance on debt especially in the government sector to be raising financing costs very very rapidly, withdrawing from or curbing purchases of government debt. i think they need to go a little bit slower. charles: let me get your thoughts on disarray in the cr

november, nancy, or even alan greens, when you actually go back to the early 19 eighties under paul volcker. and i think this says a lot about not just how high inflation is, but how stubborn it raytheon and other military contractors are making a killing. but the american people are suffering. is anyone now shocked that the public is fuming? is i'm getting my money to ukraine. i have every way disrespect to you because you're the 1000 equation with 80000000. craig, dan, i'm sorry, bill, in my mistake that you're a fraud. now some would say that heckling public officials is certainly not the way out, but what exactly does one do when the. 2 president himself seems to be somewhat out of touch with reality. not concerned about with i'm concerned about with when the people you elected are focused on a country overseas, while things in your community, just keep getting worse and worse. you might think that it's time to be a little bit less polite. maybe it's time for some unconventional politics. the polls are now swinging to the right, regardless of any shouting at town halls. my republicans a

in value why their dollars aren't going as far as they should be where suddenly speculation is paul volcker has pointed out suddenly seems to be a way to get ahead rather than honest work. it's debilitating in society and leads to social problems and countries that repeatedly play with their money devalue their money are more violent societies. they have more crime we point to brazil. brazil in the last couple of years has tried to stabilize this currency, but it's been notorious for decades. look at the crime there terrible, so you get less social trust you get more lawlessness when you have unstable money, and there was a book written about the german hyperinflation in the early 20s, which made possible help make possible the rise of adolf hitler when they destroyed completely destroyed their currency. a book called when money dies pointed out that before that hyperinflation. germany was probably the most law-abiding country on earth everyone obeyed the rules then with the hyperinflation suddenly that went by the boards because you were a suckrophy played by the rules because you were goi

paul volcker who in the early 1980s headed up the federal reserve and killed terrible inflation at a very high cost that had been inflicting us in the '70s because in the '70s they would fight it, not fully kill it. so we went through a very grim period and early 80s to finally stop at once and for all. and he rolls, we did an interview with him a couple of years ago, and he, four years ago, and he would roll his eyes at the idea that 2% inflation is good. in terms of the stability of the dollar you want, you don't want inflation or deflation. you want flation. this is a very subtle point. you may get prices going up because of supply and demand. for example, a hotel in cambodia, very poor country is going to be a lot cheaper than hotel room, say in singapore, a very prosperous country. when a country becomes more prosperous and people's salaries are going up in real terms, then they not only start to buy more things but they're going to want more services. for example, take somebody who cuts hair. a barber. a barber, if the country becomes more prosperous a barber is not going to co

it there for some time and we will see if the open market committee has the determination that paul volcker. >> reporter: americans should expect unemployment to rise and feel iconic pain. a host of tech firms had frozen higher or plan layoffs, amazon the most recent saying it would pause increment of corporate higher, twitter and will slow hiring, netflix has laid-off workers and these layoffs are not being reflected in the jobs report down the road. . ashley: great stuff, thank you. draft kings, we have look at that stock, nearly 22% but the company reported strong earnings, revenue up 136%, 502 million. jason robbins is the ceo of draft king, joins us now. good morning. the stock is getting killed but numbers are pretty good. what is going on? >> probably a little bit of a disconnect between our guide for 2023 which included a number of states versus consensus made of many analysts that did not. apples and oranges. that is what we are getting hit on. we stated this on the earnings call but don't know if many heard that if you take out the account of new states it is under a $390 million

the pulp are tightening -- the paul volcker tightening ushered in a major emerging-market debt crisis not looking at that. you have to see that we are -- we have gone from a long period of very favorable conditions for debt servicing for emerging markets and that is coming to a screeching halt. do not also forget that emerging-market debt is overwhelmingly in dollars and the dollar has been appreciating which means that the real debt servicing costs are mounting because of that. i think emerging markets are going to be in for a period of very limited capital influence and more sketchy access to capital markets. let me -- at the world bank, a real preoccupation was not so much with the middle emerging markets but what is happening with the low income countries. at the moment i have to say more than 60% of the 74 low income countries are already either in debt distress or high risk of debt distress. we have not seen that in decades. kathleen: even before the u.k. had its issues, there were some moments that looked like an illiquid treasury market. that the treasury should or could slow

maybe too much paul volcker. neil: right. charles: thank you, my friend, appreciate it.les payne. this is indeed "making money." breaking right now the moment is here. as neil mentioned the fed expected to hike rates another 75 basis point but what happens from here? that is the big question. this has become a modern day circus maximus. 30 seconds ago the white house chimed to express how the fed is independent. we'll help you thrive through all of this. look at line up. phil blancato. daniel green. danielle dimartino booth. he wants to rammed up the move to the green utopia but this might not be the way to get there, berating big oil and charging more for their profits. that will not drill more oil. we'll explain, this is the second biggest issue in the market. at 215 i got market rebel cone copounder jon najarian. now to edward lawrence. reporter: federal reserve is

you have to go back to the early 1980s under paul volcker. now this is, of course, raising borrowing costs. the fed is trying to cool off demand, giving supply a chance to catch up. virtually all americans are feeling the impact here. these fed rate hikes have caused the worst year for the stock market since 2008. credit card rates are near record highs. for the first time in 20 years, we have seven percentage points for mortgage rates. this is all, of course, raising concerns about a recession. history shows that the fed tends to react too late to inflation and then overreact. we have seen in the past that recessions often follow these inflation-fighting campaigns. that's what happened in the early 1990s, happened again in early 2000, and then again, around 2008. the stakes are massive. >> there's a lot of pressure building on the federal reserve chairman on how he's handling the crisis. he's speaking this afternoon. what could we hear from him? >> that's where the real drama in. 2:30 eastern time we have a press conference with the fed chai

keeping at it, which is the title of paul volcker's memoirs.g to keep at it i can't except that jay is going to be a softy going into christmas. we're going to slow down we're not going 75s every meeting for forever. we're going to have a period where we get to watch the lags come and do what it's supposed to go. slow things down. >> that's it and it's a really fascinating that powell added that speech on november 30th. 1:30 this show is from 1:00 to 2:00 we might have some headlines on this program david, appreciate it >> yeah. >> i love it great stuff. david always brings it in a different way. very smart there you go november 30th, folks circle it on your calendar >>> china announced limiting easing of its strict covid zero liesutowpoci b n cases are popping again. eunice yoon will tell you about it coming up can he stand on his own... once he's all on his own? this is financial security. and lincoln financial solutions will help you get there. as you plan, protect and retire. ♪ ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on

this goes all the way back to paul volcker. reminding the fed has a dual mandate is a good idea. i think the rhetoric about softening the labor market is a really pathetic euphemism for throwing people out of work. so i think it's important to remind them i fully supported sherrod brown's letter. i think every single member of congress should be telling them to just back off a little bit, just slow it down for a lot of the reasons i said. but jay cannot go out there and justify for that reason. it's not a national security institution. alix: fair enough. it will be interesting. we appreciate claudia. we appreciate your time today. tune into bloomberg tv, we will have full coverage for you that decision and powell's news conference. sticking inflation, it wasn't great the comments he said sue will get the view from the shipping ceo coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ if you wake up thinking about the market and want to make the right moves fast... get decision tech. for insights on when to buy and sell. and proactive alerts on

neil: it used to be the fed kept its eyes closely on the market and paul volcker did not.i am wondering if the posture of the fed's if markets are happy we are not, we don't want that. >> i don't think if the markets are happy we are not but the fed needs to tighten financial conditions to stay tight. we want to see a slowdown in the interest rate sensitive sectors of the economy. oh 7% mortgage rate will do that. we see a big increase in cancellation rates for homebuilders in the sunbelt because higher mortgage rates are crippling housing activity. they want to see asset prices come down. they've come down quite a bit this. neil: do you sense they are willing to roll the dice, they produce the slowdown, better that inflation does that? >> absolutely. that is what you heard from jay powell. the risks of not doing enough are greater than the risks of doing too much. if you don't do enough you just have inflation, you have to go higher later. the concern you heard from yesterday is what if they back off now, in january and a year from now inflation is going back to 6% and th

you have to go back to the early '80s under paul volcker. i think this says how stubborn the inflation has been. the fed's statement, which is watched very closely, is basically identical to last month, except for one key part. the fed reiterated that ongoing interest rate hikes are likely to be appropriate, but they added that this is going to be the case in order to get policy restrictive enough to get inflation down to 2% over time. the fed also laid out some criteria, about what it's going to take for them to slow the pace of these massive interest rate hikes. they laid out three key factors, one economic and financial developments, two the cumulative tightening of monetary policy thus fare, and the lag with which monetary pole affects economic activity and inflation. that's important. it takes many months for these rate hikes to hit the reel economy. so there are some fears the fed might be overdoing the rate hikes without even knowing it. maybe the fed is laying the groundwork to possibly slow down the pace of rate hikes in the coming

inflation will roll back to 2, i think that powell does not want to go down as arthur burns, more like paul volckern terms how he's remembered and i don't think he wants to ease too soon which will up-reig -ignite inflation. the bubbles created and some of the security bubbles created back then and what we saw in this most recent run is a lot to do with printing of money and fed bringing rates to zero this activity, which is actually detrimental to long-term capital preservation and long-term capital growth in our country. >> so you were right to predict the pain for stocks and bonds this year. no doubt about it. and still expecting the stock market to fall into next year. what does it mean for bonds? is there buying opportunity here now if you are expecting recession? >> yeah. i wouldn't say right now right here because rates recently came down how i would phrase it. when rates were zero coming into this year, we could lend and earn 6% race, 6 base points over that risk-free rate. today the spread widened to 700 base points. over the 5% rate gets you 12%. rather than invest in the same credit and

more a year ago than now, this idea that everyone looking back to the giant paul volcker.t is the risk that the fed is trying to avoid. i keep seeing all the notes coming out for next year and the one uniting feature is that they like gods. they like long duration bonds. treasuries. one of the key questions into 2023, are we setting up for a bond bull market because we have seen yield build up and is it taken away with this believe that we will see a recession to go back to her normal? tom: i looked down at bill gross is trader and he remembers getting blown up in 1978 in the one thing not talked about is the bond markets have been blown up not by powell but by the price down yield up seen. lisa: this is because of inflation. you talk about sovereign bonds. again, are we there yet? that's a big question. in terms of how high yields have to go? we don't understand the inflation we are dealing. as you pointed out, without housing, without energy, food inputs. tom: can we do a major shout out to pimco as they moved along, they made a spectacular call two years ago to short du

and we will see, if this federal open market committee has that sort of determination paul volcker hadgot job renewell from biden i guess he can do what he wants if he is in you know actually serious about taming inflation he seemed talking that and walking that at the meeting this this week. but to your point tyler that we still have negative real interest rates, at 4% fed funds rate negative in real term with inflation, at 8%. christian whiton, the -- and steve moore brought this up but the american people the reason that are there upset is because inflation just -- makes people angry, it makes it difficult for them, to manager their budgets steve moore mentioned this. that wages i think now the nine months in a row that wages are growing at less than overall inflation rate. christian? >> so that. >> yeah another thing steve mentioned, of course, debt bond that is coming part is government, too. i believe the treasury now if you look at all federal debt all 30 trillion or a little bit less if you take out intergovernmental loans 2.1% most isn't 30-year debt but rolls over from time t

that phrase in particular, i'm looking at paul volcker's last book he wrote, it's called keeping at ittalking volcker 2.0, that's the decision he made. dagen: he hopes people refer to him at volcker 2.0. let's remind people, powell caused all this speculation, the $9 trillion balance sheet and 40 year high inflation that's crushing our standard of living. maria: we haven't talked about the balance sheet runoff and elimination of a trillion dollars in liquidity. that's going to impact the markets as well. gregory, thanks for weighing in on all of that. >> good to be here. maria: quick break and then joe biden says there's no good afternoon he tea america can -- guarantee mark america can get inflation control. chuck fleischman is here. he'll get into it on economics, next. cityserve, started rescuing women, children and the elderly. and as winter approaches, they need our help more than ever. from your neighborhood to the nations, cityserve international providing food, shelter and transportation to millions through a vast network of churches. help us serve the people of ukraine this wi

they don't want to make the mistakes of burns and even paul volcker, but that would suggest or mean eventually data, it will say, hey, you know what? mission accomplished although there will still be rate hikes in the pipeline. there will still be qt. and, you know, that always means recession. is the risk/reward still so much that they need to just keep the pedal to the metal no matter what? >> well this is kind of a unique environment because historically we always said the fed with their dual mandate of basically inflation plus the economy, there always been asymmetric risk meaning that the bigger risk is whether they break something in the economy and yeah, i think exactly what you said is that probably at this point the bigger risk as much as anything if they basically declare mission accomplished prematurely too soon. that is what happened in the '70s. charles: right. >> each successive time you know they actually paused they had to restart again and inflation numbers got worse and worse. that ends up being really the greatest downside but as far as what they have done so far a lot of th

they have reinstated a process, nerdy word here, paul volcker voter reconciliation. a way to make sure folks aren't double voting. they felt it was taking too much time and wasn't a big enough issue. they've now reinstated that which is going to really slow down the process significantly so we might not hear until thursday, friday, potentially even into the weekend. the other bucket, the lawsuits. the fetterman campaign has already, we haven't got results yet, but they've already filed a lawsuit to overturn the pennsylvania supreme court ruling that told elections officials to set aside and not count mail-in ballots that don't have a date or have an incorrect date on the outer envelope. the fetterman campaign says those votes should continue. that it's a violation not to count them. we are just hearing out of luzerne county where our team has spent a lot of time. i started to get calls from voters this morning saying they were running out of printer paper and we just got off a call with an official who said there's been a widespread paper shortage which means some vo

. >> to fix it, he appointed paul volcker to the fed, who raised rates up and up.in though, not in time for the election. >> a recession is when your neighbor loses his job. a depression is when you lose yours. and when jimmy carter loses his. >> make an analogy, the economy and politics to you know, coaching sports and the winning and losing reality have little to do with the manager but you get credit for the success and you get the blame for the failure. >> so there's a lag. >> good point. >> and george bush and jimmy carter both suffered the fate of it. we talked about the history. that incredible nbc news, those glasses that the woman in the store was wearing. we get all that history there. i talked to steve who we know well around here, who's thought about this a long time and asked him how best i should vote on the economy. he has all of that advice coming up at 2:00 p.m. >> it's fascinating because we talk to democrats, why aren't folks explaining more on the campaign trial. why it is we are where we are economically because it does not resonate. people wan

changing in value whether dollars are not going as far as they should be, or suddenly speculation is paul volckernted out seems to be a way to get ahead rather than honest work. it's a debilitating society and leads to social problems. countries have repeatedly play with their money, devalue their money are a more violent society. it's been notorious for decades butt look at the crime there, terrible. you get less social trust you get more lawlessness. there is a book written about the german hyperinflation in the early 20s whichhe made possible, help make possible the rise of adolf hitler when they completely destroyed their currency. a book called when money dies pointed out by the most law-abiding country on earth. everyone obeyed the rules. they with the hyperinflation that went by the boards. you are going to lose you had more lawlessness, you had more people cheating there living for the moment for his to civil society. that was hyperinflation. you should a get over time at gradual undermining of social trust. not as dramatic as what happened in germany and what you see in venezuela today.

stuart: my opinion is that jay powell is not paul volcker.well will force america into a wild and crazy recession like happened in the early 1980s. >> but some are saying you're already seeing signs of slowing. whether or not it's the jobs market. stuart: don't do it. susan thanks for stepping in we appreciate that. you bought me some time. appreciate it. back to politics. mid-term exit poll shows that gen z people 18-25-year-olds, they overwhelmingly voted democrat. mercedes schlapp with us now. did biden's student loan forgiveness handout attract young people to vote democrat? >> look, stuart. i think that that was definitely a part of it. i think biden pushing this message and giving false hope on the student loan forgiveness program definitely played a role. i also think that the message on abortion which i also think pushed some of these suburban moms in that direction as well impacted many of these races in the battleground states and obviously, with the generationz, we month that there are a lot of pro-lifers in the generation z, you k

history have focused in on their mandate in a different way arthur burns focused on unemployment paul volcker says, we've got to get rid of this inflation, and ben bernanke threw in a third one that says, we've got to worry about market stability so that kind of uncertainty has been a real problem for the markets to understand what the fed is doing and has kept people like me, fed watchers, fully employed, because the question is, what's the fed doing now if they came up with a rule and said, this is how we're making our decisions, that would actually get the fed focused away from the markets and focus on earnings and what's really important. but the fact that the market is forced the focus on the fed means the fed is not clear on how it operates tor markets don't understand how the market operates >> do you think that we are just way, way, way, way too -- i don't mean we, cnbc, although we talk about it as much as anybody else does. the markets, i've been doing this now for 25 years. i've kind of seen the progress of like, well, we're trying to talk about the fed, now we kind of talked about

and including early paul volcker, they tried to get inflation under control, and each of those timesre the job was done. and they didn't pause because of a 20% ektquity correction they paused because there were financial stability concerns, they paused because inflation was coming down, even though it wasn't down below 3% yet, they paused because unemployment was ticking up i think that the lesson of the 1970s is that we can be looking at a fed that draws some of these different data points as motivation for a pause or pivot. >> investors right now are going la, la, la, la not listening to any of you. the dow futures are up by 800 points nancy, what do you think does that make sense, the market reaction to this >> it does the whisper number was for a softer cpi everyone is so bearish consensus is that we're heading into a recession with market participants it's not surprising that with the softer number, we're going to get a good pop. a lot of people have been weaning the other way. it's good to be contrarian when you see the number they're still incredibly high and the one thing i w

federal reserve bank of new york i served in open market operations and it was a secretary to paul volckersident so i've had three government assignments. it seems to me if you do nothing else you should promote policies that would generate growth, prosperity, jobs. i am a free-market capitalist. i think it's the shortest path to growth when i was in the cnbc days and i had my share for many years i use to open up the show every night by saying free-market capitalism. essentially you need the lowest possible tax rates, the least possible government intervention. think of it as minimal regulations and you need a sound currency which i called king dollar. if you break that and move to a policy regime of high tax rates, excessive government regulation and innovation and it's a cheaper dollar depreciated, you will find yourself with high inflation, high unemployment and recession. and i've argued that through the years that there are almost no exceptions to that, almost no exceptions. this is a controversial point. the economics profession nowadays which like everything else in the academy's m

paul volcker continued to raise interest rates through the end of the year.tively mild recession in 1981, peak to trough the market went down about 27%. associated with that recession if you invested when inflation peaked, you had some volatility along the way but you were pretty happy one, two, three years after that if you think of where we are now, inflation seems to have peaked around june powell still raising rates through the end of the year. most prognosticators think we'll have a relatively mild recession next year. peak to trough the market is down 26% i suspect if you invest when inflation peaked, you may have volatility along the way but you're going to tb quite happy over the next year or two. >> we'll leave the conversation there. brian levitt and ed, thank you for joining us. >>> take a look at the road map. including highlights from iger's town hall with disney employees saying a hiring freeze will remain. >>> crude commentary what do falling oil prices mean for production cut we'll take a look at possible pullback from opec. >>> elon musk taki

i served in open market operations, and i was a secretary to paul volcker who was president of the new fed. so i've had three government assignments. seems to me if you do nothing else in government, you should promote policies that would generate growth, prosperity, jobs, optimism. that's our job. our job, i'm a free market capitalist. i believe in free markets, free enterprise capitalism. i think it's the surest path to growth. when i was in cnbc days and i had my show there for many years, i used to open up the show every night by saying free market capitalism is a best path to prosperity. i set it for many years. i believe that. i still believe that. so come back to your points, your questions, essentially you need the lowest possible tax rates, the least possible government intervention, think of it as minimal regulations. and you need a sound currency, which i call king dollar. that was my phrase years ago, king dollar. and if you break that, if you move to a policy regime of high tax rates, excessive government intervention and regulation, and the cheap dollar, debased dollar, d

they know in 1980 after an initial period of serious tightening, paul volcker eased up prematurely the when he had to come back in early '81, he really had to hammer the economy. i think powell and his team want to avoid that this time. i think, also, they're in the process of rebuilding their credibility in markets to ensure that inflationary expectations do not get out of control. those various factors, in my view, argue for continued vigilance, continued tightening, albeit at a moderated pace over the last five month we've seen the most historically rapid rise in fed rates in modern history. >> in light of that, charles, is stagflation a real risk? if that is a risk on the table that the fed is watching very closely, does that mean it's more than willing to and perhaps it is even inevitable we'll get some sort of recession to avoid that >> well, our base case still has the u.s. barely avoiding a recession. to be quite honest, it's touch and go i do believe the risk of a recession in the u.s. are quite significant. the risk of a recession in europe obviously much higher if i focus on

i think chair powell means what he says, he wants to behave in a way that is not like paul volcker.he committee along with him as the on employment rate goes up and the trade-offs between the two objectives of the fed, price stability and matching stable employment, become more in conflict with one another. i think we all know the answer. i am hopeful powell will carry it. jonathan: i remain -- i remember when inflation was some 2%. they should raise it to three, people would believe they are committed to getting inflation higher. then, they may hit 2%. lisa: do you remember when they were talking about free money and modern auditory theory? jonathan: appreciate it, always thought-provoking. the idea you say, i am going to go 3%. isn't it harder to hit 3% now because you started to believe from a inflation perspective, if i do not have confidence in a central banks commitment to a target of 2% and i am in the market, i do not get a question to whether they are committed to 3%? lisa: that is bill's point, this will and flout -- allow inflation expectations to become, there is a pinch