he'd rather be paul volker if he has to look at his portrait in the fed. it is going to give them an excuse to pause, and i have a feeling they'll under significant pressure to do that. >> it inflation is too high for comfort. >> i agree it is high, but it is a question of reaching neutral it is not simply an issue of -- where the rate policy is going to land is such that you don't have negative real interest rates, and if they feel like they can make that claim and feel it is still trending in the right direction and they see weak economic data, it wouldn't surprise me to see them pause, and a .25% hike isn't much in the grand scheme of things >> no. >> up next, a recent restaurant trade. should wask e for check or stay for dessert? "options action" back in a moment new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today. [bushes rustling] [door openi

when jerome powell talked about channeling his inner paul volcker, you knew he was going to invert the curve. he has done it in an historic way. when volker did it, you were in an unleveraged system but now we are in a generally leveraged system. that two week data on lending didn't happen for weeks ago, it happened over the last two weeks. you don't have to try to bet on the downside and run for the hills. the time to get cautious was over a year ago. now is the time to look for opportunity as it presents itself but you can't do it unless i understand and believe we are going into a recession, which we look at the inversion of the yield curve, leading indicators, lending standards are the senior loan officer survey from the fed, anytime they have been anywhere near the current levels you have gone into recession. jonathan: we think about depth, duration, diffusion. you made a comment on depth and the severity of a recession that a lot of people say will be shallow. what makes you think maybe it will be deeper than some people think? tony: because if the fed stays higher for longer, i think the loft -- soft landing is the worst case scena