famously, paul volker, the previous chair of the federal reserve really had to campaign against inflation. had to crank up interest rates to stamp it out after inflation was stubbornly high for much of the 70's and 80's. interest rates were in the teens, i want to say. i do not know the exact number off the top of my head. people paying out for 15% mortgages, which we are getting there in the housing market, but we are not anywhere near that level any meaningful sense. it has definitely been worse in the past, but expectations are everything and interest rates have gotten higher in a short period of time. host: let us talk about the political impact on president joe biden. he has been talking up the economy, painting a pretty positive picture. but one of the political stakes for president biden as we know consumers are still worried about inflation? guest: it is a tricky dance, running for reelection as the president when you had an economy where voters pretty widely agreed it is not the most comfortable thing in the world right now, but everything is getting better. when you are talking

famously, paul volker, the previous chair of the federal reserve really had to campaign against inflation. had to crank up interest rates to stamp it out after inflation was stubbornly high for much of the 70's and 80's. interest rates were in the teens, i want to say. i do not know the exact number off the top of my head. people paying out for 15% mortgages, which we are getting there in the housing market, but we are not anywhere near that level any meaningful sense. it has definitely been worse in the past, but expectations are everything and interest rates have gotten higher in a short period of time. host: let us talk about the political impact on president joe biden. he has been talking up the economy, painting a pretty positive picture. but one of the political stakes for president biden as we know consumers are still worried about inflation? guest: it is a tricky dance, running for reelection as the president when you had an economy where voters pretty widely agreed it is not the most comfortable thing in the world right now, but everything is getting better. when you are talking

famously, paul volker, the previous chair of the federal reserve really had to campaign against inflation. had to crank up interest rates to stamp it out after inflation was stubbornly high for much of the 70's and 80's. interest rates were in the teens, i want to say. i do not know the exact number off the top of my head. people paying out for 15% mortgages, which we are getting there in the housing market, but we are not anywhere near that level any meaningful sense. it has definitely been worse in the past, but expectations are everything and interest rates have gotten higher in a short period of time. host: let us talk about the political impact on president joe biden. he has been talking up the economy, painting a pretty positive picture. but one of the political stakes for president biden as we know consumers are still worried about inflation? guest: it is a tricky dance, running for reelection as the president when you had an economy where voters pretty widely agreed it is not the most comfortable thing in the world right now, but everything is getting better. when you are talking

my guess they don't want to re-create a paul volker recession that we both know that was two years ofhey don't really want to do that but jay powell has made it clear as christine legarde and andrew bailey from the bank of england. it is the focus, inflation will remain a focus. until they feel confident that they conquered it that they're going to continue. i think we are going to get two more hikes and get the terminal rate close with a 6% range. ashley: is going to have an impact. were out of time thank you for jumping in and chatting with us as always. always a pleasure. come back in here lauren you're looking at the movers let's begin with one of her favorites, alphabet. a nice game it is 128-dollar price targets is a google search share so the share of search in the trafficker holding up well. >> everybody google's. >> jetblue, airlines have been down the opening bell now they're higher despite the cancellation. if you look at the 11 day stretch where you sell 30% of flights delayed. in friday the last day of june a record number of people that went through tsa. ashley: people w

the pattern of what the fed's already been doing he's already told us that he's the modern day paul volker everyone reveres him he killed inflation by back-to-back recessions, right >> david, it is always good to get your thoughts. david rosenberg, rosenberg research tim, it's sobering he makes a lot of fantastic points, but how do you reconcile that with what's going on in the markets and a call for what's going to happen or might happen in the next 12 months with the markets we have on our hands right now? >> he sure does. david's done thoughtful work for a long time, and the data points he's bringing up are undeniable. volker is cited as a hero, but what volker -- he was obsessed over the psychology of inflation, which he felt he had to break and didn't matter if he broke the economy. i don't know where this fed falls in line with that, but what's clear is that the sequencing of this market has been very different than people had expected and that means not only the timing of recession, which david pointed out, i think people probably got wrong in 2007 through 2009 and maybe they're get

was an advisor to organize labor, involved with major league baseball, and along with his friend, paul volker, an outspoken advocate for public finance and sound state and local budgeting. well into his 80's, he was still teaching at yale law school. he seemed to know everyone and have a story or two that involved each. he displayed a vast memory and boundless energy. he was a practitioner of the political art at the highest level. he spent his final months keenly focused on the upcoming election for congress. he invested untold hours and significant resources, helping men and women make their way politically. dick was a proud member of the governing wing of the democratic party. he never ceased to amaze me with his interest, expertise, and skill. he was a master woodworker, and his central park apartment was filled with amazing pieces that he had crafted. dick took great pride in his family. his sons, michael and joey, his marriage to kathy brought three stepdaughters into the family. there were 13 grandchildren. a tremendous source of pride and joy to dick. i was lucky to call him a friend

famously, paul volker, the previous chair of the federal reserve really had to campaign against inflationhad to crank up interest rates to stamp it out after inflation was stubbornly high for much of the 70's and 80's. interest rates were in the teens, i want to say. i do not know the exact number off the top of my head. people paying out for 15% mortgages, which we are getting there in the housing market, but we are not anywhere near that level any meaningful sense. it has definitely been worse in the past, but expectations are everything and interest rates have gotten higher in a short period of time. host: let us talk about the political impact on president joe biden. he has been talking up the economy, painting a pretty positive picture. but one of the political stakes for president biden as we know consumers are still worried about inflation? guest: it is a tricky dance, running for reelection as the president when you had an economy where voters pretty widely agreed it is not the most comfortable thing in the world right now, but everything is getting better. when you are talking ab

then have inflation surge back up again absolutely not powell has fancied himself as a modern paul v volk volkernd i think it's the entire committee is that a possibility? yes. you're dealing with human psychology but for now as i say, the champagne is flowing and the bulls are happy. the important thing is where do we close do we get to today's close with the same kind of feeling that we've had all morning. and i'll be watching that too. i'll be watching to see if they get above 45 and do they run into resistance between 45 and 4520. >> finally, art, and we'll get to the banks on friday, obviously. a lot of discussion about -- we mentioned m&a, maybe lighter touch on regulation, some indications we might be getting into a new cycle on i.p.o. do you think the banks are looking interesting here i see wells points out, post earnings they tend to underperform even though they wrap up nicely in advance. >> we had a major bump along the road in the silicon valley bank and signature and the others and i think the political sentiment, as far as the banks and, you know, everybody is terrified. used to h

the volker alliance is a nonpartisan nonprofit founded by the former head of the federal reserve board of governors paul volcker and dedicated to advancing his vision of an empowered public sector workforce. sometimes in very nicely with the theme of the day. i want to thank fill up and mr. is a good friend and that helps for hosting us today at columbia and we have a great set panelists for this third panel we have two people joining us on zoom neil ferguson and, jen parker and up here we have paul light to my right, to my left, and then richard roth joining us. so we'll turn first to neil on zoom. he is the milbank family senior fellow at the hoover institution at stanford university and also a senior faculty fellow of the belfer center for science and international affairs, harvard. he's the author of over 16 books, including most doom the politics catastrophe, and he's a regular columnist with bloomberg opinion and an award winning historian and economic journalist. so without further ado, let me turn the panel over to neil. thank you very much, emily. i hope i'm audible. i can see that i'm visible.