director pauljohnson was speaking earlier, could you recap on what he said?ter the budget there is a battle for the airwaves, how i said? day after the budget there is a battle for the airwaves, how this| a battle for the airwaves, how this budget will be framed on the reason for the institute for fiscal studies matter in a sense as they are very much perceived as a leading economic think tank, one that is not particularly perceived as having a political agenda so it's striking to see pauljohnson said this morning that the chancellor has not been transparent about the real challenges that the country is facing. there's a number of things going on but let's break it down into two key elements. the first is the promises we have heard about tax cuts and pauljohnson said this morning tax has risen to its highest proportion of national income for decades while what was announced yesterday is genuinely significant for many people who are working, people will still be worse off than they were at the start of this parliament. the second part of his analysis which i t

that was pauljohnson. our political panel to discuss the budget. with us tonight, former communications director at number 10, guto harri, the conservative former economic secretary to the treasury, justine greening, keir starmer�*s former policy director, claire ainsley, and uk economist at deutsche bank, sanjay raja. we will be right back. for our uk viewers, let's have a look at some of the story is making news today. 181 trials that have been delayed, rape cases, when i have to go before a jury. the gesture in charge of the plan said victims have faced unacceptable delays. a fire in the southampton�*s stadium has resulted in their match being called off. smoke plume from industrial units could be seen for miles around. one person has been treated for the effects of breathing in smoke. junior doctors in northern ireland are taking strike action over pay for the first time today. the british medical association says the deal put to them was the minimum junior doctors could have been offered. the departme

it is interesting, what pauljohnson of the iss were saying there in that clip about the conspiracy of. are we being told the truth about it? the whole discussion we are having about this, doesn't really fit with reality? what happens every time we have one of these fiscal events as we look at these fiscal events as we look at the chancellor's fiscal goals and targets for what he thinks debt will be as a proportion of the economy, for example. one of his target is to have that falling five years from now, but of course that is based on a very uncertain forecast. a tweak here or there with the forecaster�*s pen and there are 10 billion more or 10 billion less, so it if it is on that basis that he is saying he's going to fit his fiscal targets, then he's going to need £10 billion of spending cuts or £20 billion of tax rises, that is highly artificial, especially when you're talking about a fiscal target based on an uncertain forecast. you have no idea what tax revenues or growth will be in the future and the further out it is, the less realistic it is. the fundamental... is a look back a

pauljohnson, really good to net our ago. pauljohnson, really good to get your thoughts, _ ago.from the institute for fiscal studies. lots of numbers, but they are important and i will be back with more analysis later.— we can get more reaction now to the budget. we'rejoined by sir ed davey, leader of the liberal democrats. good morning and thank you for joining us this morning. i think you have described this as the bottler�*s budget, after all of the height jeremy hunt did not deliver and is running scared of losing his own seat. what specific announcements do you object to? i did seat. what specific announcements do you object to?— you ob'ect to? i did call a bottom ofthe you object to? i did call a bottom of the barrel _ you object to? i did call a bottom of the barrel budget _ you object to? i did call a bottom of the barrel budget because - you object to? i did call a bottom of the barrel budget because it i of the barrel budget because it won't touch the sides for of struggling families and he could have done so much more. rather than the national insurance car which we b

you heard some thoughts from pauljohnson from the institute for fiscal studies there.how narrow is the room for manoeuvre for the uk chancellor? irate how narrow is the room for manoeuvre for the uk chancellor?— for the uk chancellor? we will find out the details _ for the uk chancellor? we will find out the details on _ for the uk chancellor? we will find out the details on wednesday - for the uk chancellor? we will find | out the details on wednesday when for the uk chancellor? we will find - out the details on wednesday when we see the offer office for budget responsibility, forecast, but i think the answer is almost certainly very narrow. back in november, he was meeting his mentorfiscal rule about the skinniest of the slim margins, and there is no particular reason to think that will have got a lot better since. and he does want to make significant tax cut. it is probable to have to find some savings elsewhere. we probable to have to find some savings elsewhere.— probable to have to find some savings elsewhere. we know the uk economy is — savings elsewhere. we kno

general election and to discuss all of that and a bit more detail in place to say i am joined by pauljohnsonhat 2p count in national insurance sounds like it will- insurance sounds like it will be, unless there's big surprises, the biggest thing in the budget. it's a substantial tax code, particularly coming on top of the 2p cut in national insurance was announced backin national insurance was announced back in november and introduced in january and between them, they make 20 billion or so tax cut. they will make most people who work several hundred pounds better off than they otherwise would have done. i have to say, relative to cutting income tax, which is the other thing that has been discussed, it strikes me that was the right choice, it helps people of working age in work, which is the group that needs most help at the moment. it's worth putting it in context. certainly for higher earners, the freezing of the tax threshold is a bigger tax rise than this will be a tax cut and also for the lowest earners they will still be worse off net but, overall, a pretty chunky tax cut. in be worse o

well, i'm here on college green and with me is pauljohnson on college green and with me is paul johnson day two of the process. paul the budget process. paul johnson, what's your verdict on the budget? >> well, this was a pre—election budget from a chancellor who actually very little space actually had very little space for . for manoeuvre. >> the obr didn't change their forecasts all, really . forecasts at all, really. >> and back in november, mr hunt was running right up against the limits that his self—imposed limits. so what did he this limits. so what did he do this time round? >> well, it's quite big cut in >> well, it's quite a big cut in national to be fair. national insurance, to be fair. >> £10 billion cut. put >> that's a £10 billion cut. put that together with the cut we had time. had last time. >> worth well over >> that's worth well over £1,000. of people in £1,000. so lots of people in work. so that quite work. so that was quite substantial 4% it in three months. >> absolutely. >> absolutely. >> 4% off in months. worth >> absolutely. >> 4% tof in months. worth >> absolute

pauljohnson is with us from the institute for fiscal studies. welcome. ., , ., might fall? no. the 1% a year increase in — might fall? no. the 1% a year increase in public _ might fall? no. the 1% a year increase in public spending i might fall? no. the 1% a year- increase in public spending doesn't sound too bad but given what we know will happen to health spending, defence spending and childcare spending, that will mean quite big cuts in everything else. there's other things that got cut last time around. police, justice, all those kind of things which are struggling. so, what we got again today was tax cuts today paid for by some incompletely uncertain spending plans for the future. he did talk about public sector productivity but he seemed to be suggesting he could find 20 billion worth of savings. we'll see whether that is feasible. i'm sceptical. he we'll see whether that is feasible. i'm sceptical-— we'll see whether that is feasible. i'm sce tical. ,., ., , i'm sceptical. he said an investment of nearly 3-5 — i'm sceptical. he said an investment