there is pboc speak as well.n we get, we learn from their from the firstt quarter many of the monetary policy committee that they had decided they can pull back. maybe they won't get rid of all of the stimulus but they don't have to the pedal to the metal as they were. they're trying not to flood the economy with excess. the economy is showing healthy development. growth is brazilian. they also said that they are maintaining countercyclical measures and keeping strategic focus. this is very important. is a phrase that dropped for their last monetary policy statement. now they can still have a stimulus but their strategic focus is to part. on theve to keep one eye deleveraging campaign. to the head of the both team last week, they emphasized that all of the stimulus is the reason that they expect china to stabilize and get a little stronger. this has been a big focus. the pboc seems to think they are having some success. is there a danger that the pboc is moving too soon? that they are declaring victory too early?

injectings the pboc by these methods? the most interesting aspect here is that china has not made strides toward a market-based monetary policy. yvonne: what does that mean for chinese stocks? is there any incentive to buy more? chris: the interesting thing about that is we all know that china's domestic stocks are retail investor dominated. we don't think about it on a day-to-day basis. those investors, i doubt they are looking at things like --lines on the pboc, mls mlf injection. they are at momentum, psychology, maybe the u.s. trade talks and the fact that things are going better there has given enough momentum for them to keep going. i doubt the pboc moves will play much of a factor in chinese domestic stocks. yvonne: great to have you here, chris. here are the earnings were you, it will be coming pretty thick and thin. cost of international -- this company is in korea. 2,000,000at 71.4 yuan.42 billion they also maintained their 2019 sales forecasts. dave: stock is roughly a quarter above the last month or so. with r

how will the pboc interpret these numbers, tom? tom: well, there has been some muttering that if consumer prices keep ticking up as strong as they have, surging on the back of these pork prices, then maybe the pboc will be pressured into considering maybe a rate hike. brooke intelligence do not think that will happen. in fact, -- bloomberg intelligence does not think that will happen. in fact, they are looking at april and may, and there is a number of economists who expect that to be the most likely outcome from the pboc. in terms of producer prices, of course, as we said, the inflation bids have not diminished completely. the pboc will be watching those very carefully, of course. bring kathleen, i want to you in. we had the pboc and then the fed minutes. what is the elevator pitch for those two? kathleen: if you want to start with the federal reserve, the minutes from the march meeting closely watched, but we did not learn anything new. the patient because. we know the fed is watching inflation, and more people are saying, you kn

on pboc keeps a vigilant eye how financial resources are being used.ad some really interesting conversations about central bank independence, particularly in light of what the fed is doing. pressure from the white house. in terms of the pboc, they have done a pretty remarkable job of being restrained as the not putting out too much stimulus and waiting for the transmission to go through which is starting to feed into the money supply and credit numbers. i am wondering given the government spending on the fiscal side, we are seeing that leverage up when it comes to local government debt. how much pressure will there be on the pboc to turn on the lending caps and do more? julia: i think domestically, the fiscal framework has become a lot more restrained. also, i think a lot more sound over the past couple of years. you can see that really all they have been doing over the past of love years is putting more constrained over local governments in terms of what kind of debt they can issue, for how much, for what type of products. these kind of restraint are

[inaudible] think there is a squeeze for the pboc.o step back from it and look at , we may have to see a few more points before we actually think that china has bottomed out. we have seen green shoots from china. i'm still pessimistic given the trade negotiations ongoing with the u.s.. currency,terms of the this is where we want to get to grips with it. we have stability in the yuan. the debate is whether we get more policy levers from the pboc. stability in the one that we have seen, do you think that endorse -- endures? we are breaking higher on cmy. does this continue or do we stabilize from here? what we are negotiating honestly, there's official action on both sides. obviously there's pressure to actually see dollar china head lower. in the grand scheme of things, you have to look at chinese currency at this point in time. the current-account has been dropping consistently over the past three quarters. chinesease job in should see china had higher. in absence of external capital coming in to china as we saw a drop over the past f

china's manufacturing pmi misses but does this mean the pboc will keep its foot on the stimulus panel? trade talks kick off in beijing. not as easy as a, b, c. out of the shares slump on slowing and revenue growth. samsung this is the bottom line and issues are guarded outlook. results bonanza. bloomberg across the today. we speak with danske bank and standard chartered, as the latter announced a billion-dollar buyback. breaking news coming across the terminal. lufthansa on the airline side, to cut euro wings capacity growth to zero in 2019. call the carriers around europe are under pressure from the headwinds of the cost of actually getting those planes into the sky. lufthansa makes this announcement with regards to the budget airline eurowings capacity to zero this year. concerning the guidance for 2019, previously expected to grow capacity by 2%. first-quarter revenue comes in at 7.80 9 billion, in line with what the market had estimated, 7.88. they are confirming first-quarter negative adjusted ebit's of 36 million versus a positive number last year, 52 million. lower earnings due

fed, and we saw the pboc reduce theirs.t would be the first time in years all four have reduce their balance sheets for two consecutive months. when youimately not get the data and you trade off at that moment. this is ultimately quite a negative impulse for financial markets for the months ahead if we get the confirmation. the pboc is also reducing its balance sheet. matt: let me move on to the u.s. jobs number, the granddaddy of as weonomic statistics. have been calling it even before donald trump was president. day mliv question of the says is a deteriorating u.s. market a prerequisite for a fed cut. two things strike me. do you expect a deteriorating u.s. labor market? also, did anyone talk about the possibility of a fed cut before the last couple of days? mark: i think we have been talking about a fed cut since january, since that dovish shift in january. in the last meeting when it moved more dovish again, it was more clearly priced in the curve. we know that in the rates curve, a cut is priced has more likely than hi

we've already seen the pboc liquidity tone change a bit in the past two days. credit has rebounded and now we see the data is improving, but also the inflation. rishaad: i know they don't publish the part of the inflation basket that is food, but do we roughly know how big that is and what is the connection between monetary policy and pork prices? cui: that is a good question. usually, it is supply-side but that concern for monetary policy is the inflation expectation taking hold. at theuldn't be forefront addressing the diseases, they need to control inflation expectations. yvonne: they wouldn't hike rates, with a? cui: not yet. it is around 3%, pork prices. meat prices together, 7%, 8%. it is not just pork. usually when the pork price is moving, other meat prices go along with it. we cannot mechanically plug-in the 3%. you have to think about the spill over to the other food groups. i don't think they are going to hike rates yet. number one, headline inflation is well below 3% so the government has a lot of room and number see she, -- number two, another down

>> i do think the pboc is sensitive to not doing what they did coming out of the financial crisis. think they are being prudent focusing on fiscal stimulus. they need tax cuts. consumers need tax cuts. i think they are being prudent. i think they are trying to walk that tight rope. let's not understood newly. is in aese economy delicate position. with growth at its lowest addition. >> thank you for your time. investment strategist. you can get a roundup of the stories you need to get your day going. bloomberg subscribers, also available on mobile. you can customize your setting so you only get your news that you need -- care about. this is bloomberg. this is bloomberg. >> this is daybreak asia. york.m shery ahn in new japanese auto stocks in the u.s. rose after the latest car sales numbers came out for march. that doesn't necessarily mean the numbers were good. explainncion is here to what happened. >> it is all about expectations. were a contraction. the fact that they beat those shrinking numbers is the reason we saw that positive on the screen. let's walk you through the numbers

about theot of people pboc.what kind of an uplift you saw or trickle-down effect you saw from the authority? how did stimulus manifest itself in the phillips business plan in china? the best example i can give is the china strategy for health care 2030. the china government realizes very much there is an aging population. with more chronic disease. the most prevalent issues are cardiovascular disease, copd, and cancer. the country has not yet the infrastructure to deal with that tsunami of disease in asian populations. within that strategy there is a strong emphasis to expand health care. , artificial intelligence, telehealth.and phillips is well-positioned. we see strong double-digit growth. the china microstrategy in the film's business plan align quite well. macrostrategy and phillips business plan align quite well. manus: who needs the trade deal more at this juncture if you have to put a dollar down on the outcome -- a dollar down on it? we see two very strong geographies that are not easily going to blink.

nejra: china these expectations, will the pboc hold off? netflix price hikes puts a dent in subscriber growth, but can they keep adding subscribers? and are lori l shares worth it -- l'oreal shares worth it? we speak exclusively to the chief executive. ♪ nejra: welcome to "surveillance." let's get a check on the markets. we just got a headline crossing bloomberg. the cfi have quick count has announced a leader in indonesia. we will get back this talk more broadly about emerging markets, getting back to equity market talking about the china data. it is more in the equity markets you have seen that. stoxx 600 opening flat now to the dance over .2%. tear,ssie dollar on a went above the 200 day moving average. off that china data, we trade at 72 up two basis points meaning it has now reversed all the yields we are back above the level we started at. a bit of a mixed picture is we're looking at risk or risk off, it dynamics to talk about. -- a lot of dynamics talk about. and our interview comes after 9 a.m. for something to look forward to. let'

while the market has been quite disappointed that the pboc dismissed the rumors about the cuts, the pbocady to introduce tightening at the moment. selina: how do you see the policy stance changing if the u.s.-china trade deal is signed? for the pboc, and more broadly, the top chinese and make as, to move policy stance more neutral will depend on two important conditions. they need to see more evidence within the chinese economy that sustainability is sustained. deal, that would remove some external external -- and thatn the economy, would make their policy more neutral. selina: thanks for joining us. you can get a wrapup of the stories you need to know in today's edition of "daybreak." it's available on mobile in the bloomberg anywhere app. you can also customize your settings so you only get the news on the industries and assets you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪ selina: singapore's estate own is seekingldings more investments in america. it accounts for fit -- the u.s. accounts for 50% of its holdings. the fund says they are recoverable increase that to a fed. -- a fifth. >> the u.s.

tom: they have been going on a the pboc,g spree, adding about 11.2 times for the theh of march -- tonh of march, taking 60.6 million ounces. is expected by the end of 2019 to be the second-largest buyer of gold if they continue on this pace, after russia. china has been adding to their own resolver there is some -- their own reserve. goldman sachs, by the way, predicting prices in the next 12 months will rise to about $1450 an ounce. currently a little below $1300. haidi: all right, our china correspondent tom mackenzie in beijing. coming up, looking at u.s. jobs markets numbers. action at the fed. we will be live in sydney and in new york. this is bloomberg. ♪ is bloomberg. ♪ so with xfinity mobile i can customize each line for each family member? yup. and since it comes with your internet, you can switch wireless carriers, and save hundreds of dollars a year. are you pullin' my leg? nope. you sure you're not pullin' my leg? i think it's your dog. oh it's him. good call. get the data options you need, and still save hundreds of dollars. do you guys sell other dogs? now that's simple,

the pboc is waiting to see if its stimulus is boosting prices. inflation in 15 minutes from now.ll try to sum up all of this for us very quickly. the big question is imf. talk us through the key points. >> the imf has two big downside risks. it says things could be worse. europe,he slowdown in brexit a big part of that. the ecb met said today and did not really change anything or say anything new. he did say that europe area risks tilted to the downside on geopolitical uncertainty, brexit, u.s.-china trade war. he did say estimates of recessions remain low. that is good. he said the first line of defense if they have to do more -- they are not counting on that -- is targeted bank financing and tweaks to negative rates. look at this bloomberg chart from our bloomberg library. you can see what has gotten so worried about the economy. line, thee turquoise purchasing managers index, well below that redline at 50 which signals contraction. down to 44. france, just pulling below that redline. then, the year old area services -- euro services pmi starting to turn lower. who is going to

the pboc says it will maintain a monetary policy stance this year keeping in line with fundamentals.ers have been trying to stimulate growth without causing a debt blowout. we are joined from hong kong now. are there signs of potential more policy easing in this statement? reaffirmingk it is the message on the monetary side of things. we know they think they are trying to be neutral in their own wording but they are putting the onus on the fiscal side of things through $300 billion of tax cuts in the pipeline. not going down the -- the old binge borrowing route. on the monetary policy side we have a credit which came out friday which suggests credits be turned back on. that would suggest the central bank has less work to do. the way most people reading the they shouldmbers, be more targeted and what they are trying to do. small and private sector businesses rather than broad-based easing or an interest rate cut. the message from the pboc at the imf meeting was essentially that fiscal policy is carrying the brunt of the work and monetary policy as they are provide support, but not the

outfact the pboc is helping as filtered through the chinese markets and the hong kong markets. we also have central banks standing dovish around the region, as well. it has been a day when equity markets can feed off of the fact that the interest rate part of their equation is quite docile. no threat from that side of things, so they can get on with building their equity positions under what looks like reasonable conditions and the earnings season in the u.s. is still going on and the bank of america will react to the results you talked about earlier. matt: we also had a the impetus of a couple of central banks governors, evans and rosen grand -- evans saying a cut is a possibility. his associate saying we shouldn't be -- we should be looking at 2% being ok, even more than 2% wouldn't bother him if it weren't for too long. what do you think the fed is feeding into markets today? what they are giving investors as a message is they are willing to see inflation pick up and not do anything about it. they will not jump to any conclusions just because inflation may rise in the short

i personally think there is the potential for more easing coming from the pboc over the coming monthsed on how the data turns out. i think it is a little too early. jonathan: next week is another important week for the data specifically in china, and the u.s. as well. i want to wrap it up with a rapidfire round. three quick questions, three quick answers. first question, following off from that conversation, is the optimism for a second-half recovery in the global economy misplaced, yes or no? subadra: yes. michael: no. it will get better. bob: i think it gets better. jonathan: the low on the 10-year yield this year, negative nine basis points. have we seen the low for 2019, yes or no? subadra: yes. michael: yes. bob: no. jonathan: cain and moore attracting significant controversy around the federal reserve. do either of them get confirmed to the fed? subadra: no. michael: no. bob: yes. jonathan: subadra rajappa, michael collins, bob miller, great to catch up with you all. thank you for joining us. see you next friday at 1:00 eastern time, 6:00 in london. this was bloomberg "real yiel

about, china pmi's might be disappointing, but because investors can expect more stimulus from the pboc saw chinese stocks lift a little today. is that logic sound, you think? mark: that was certainly the narrative going through the markets, that bad data was in fact good news for stocks, because it shows the pboc can't afford to step away from its efforts. i'm slightly worried about that logic, especially going into the holiday today. it is important to emphasize, the pmi data, it shows analysts suddenly got too optimistic, so from that only a few months ago, they shipped -- shifted rapidly to expecting too much from similar separate. switching from being very bullish, to bearish. i think we will have more of a correction, entering the holiday. -- pain could pop probably last until after the holiday. we have to reassess next week to see if there was enough of a correction. overall, the story in china is that we are seeing a slight improvement, just not as quickly as some people think. anna: good morning, mark. with that in mind, our markets live question of the day. aes china pmi missi

and if rates stay low and there's plenty to go remember also we're coming back into the market and pboc is not done i think china has a lot more to do, and i think with the weaker dollar you have a lot of room for the resource trades that have underperformed in the last week, and copper is down 2% a couple of days ago and freeport and all of the steels and i bought calls on u.s. steel and a position i have that's slightly long and i added some call because this to me is a time when you're getting r reaffirmation and you can't tell me they're not going to continue to be pushing it here and wooe starting to get, i know you love this term, guy, some green shoots coming out of the european union if you look at industrial production this week. it was a lot better. >> do you like that expression >> i don't like green shoots and goldilocks it makes me crazy. hump day -- >> turkey day. >> i mean, we should do a list online >> many people would be fascinated >> do you see green shoots coming out of europe >> tim's the european expert i think the level -- it's getting less bad, right? if that's g

nejra: i've got this chart about pboc support, whether it will stay amid the credit upswing.kes us back to the numbers we got on friday. does this chart tell you about anything where europe goes from here? paul: it doesn't sell to the chinese. it is reexported somewhere else. what we have to do is not looked -- it is wrong to say china slowdown has slowed european exports. that is not a correct conclusion to draw because so much passes through china and goes to the rest of the world. we look at where the goods in up, china is and growing a bit. that does help the european economy bit but essentially for small of an to economy to matter because it doesn't consume that much itself. it is a transition to longer, more complicated supply chains. the global economy, not much. nejra: paul donovan and julian chillingworth stay with us. up next, is elon musk in hot water again? the ceo tweets and new production forecasts but his lawyers already in talks over a similar post from two months ago. this is bloomberg. nejra: in tech news, elon musk is at it again. he has posted another fore

from china looks stronger, the pboc has exceeded in stabilizing the economy. u.s.that could reassure the boj. -boj official was here in our bureau and he said a lot of things to our new steam great one of them is he is concerned hike ine sales tax october, how it will make it difficult for the economy to grow and could hurt inflation. let's listen. expects theof japan overseas economy to turn positive towards the end of this year but i don't think it will be strong enough to offset the slowdown in japan after the sales hike in october. surveyn: our team here economists, hiding out any kind of move in the next several months, the next will not be to remove stimulus but to add more monetary stimulus. last week boj unexpectedly cut bond purchases. what signal is that sending? kathleen: according to governor point and inde his a targeted way he wants the world to know we changed the number of bonds we buy or sell. it is not about a policy signal but maintaining yield curve control. toy have a range plus .2 minus point two. as bond yields go forward they can afford to l

is sort of a tension when it comes to investing in china, which is how much more stimulus does the pbocat this point even how much leverage is in the system, how much they've already done this? tom: if you calculate how much credit they've injected into the economy this quarter, the first quarter you can get to numbers like 10% of gdp. it is just astounding the additional stimulus they are willing to generate, but how much bang for their buck today usually get. the economy has very high debt levels, and i think it is very logical that the extra you get in terms of growth is diminishing. i think that is just a reality they are facing, and that doesn't mean that they are not going to try, but it is going to less growth. citi just coming out with their numbers. fixed income currency and commodities actually beat, which is a key member for goldman sachs. lisa: we have much more on those earnings next. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ xfinity watchathon week has sadly come to an end. what, what, what! no! but don't let that stop you from watching the best shows and movies from showtime, h

what exactly is the rationale from the pboc?course, of the statement from thepolitburo, in which market interpreted signals from china that they will dial back the stimulus, and seeing that big stockmarket rally. what authorities look like they are doing is try to dial back the expectations of stimulus, going away from the universal liquidity injection to more of a targeted injection. we are going to get those one-year funds at 3.15%, and we spoke earlier this morning to mark cranfield, who said this is not the big bazooka of an official rate cut. the amount is not necessarily a game changer. ♪ >> we are waiting for south korea's finance chief to hold an emergency meeting after the economy shrank the most in a decade. we know the government has been spending a lot in order to support the economy for 2019, up 10% from their original members. why is none of this helping? >> it is certainly something of a wake-up call for the debate of the local economy, and here we have one of the key bellwethers for the world economy going throug

we have been talking about the pboc and the messaging they have been doing. it seems like they are trying to manage expectations that easing is not going to be as aggressive. >> there are a lot of expectations being managed at the belt and road for him. the belt and road initiative can actually do and who is going to be involved. david: so how i put everything together? we heard comments earlier toward the belt and road summit and then there is the stimulus story . everybody is looking for him to say something. he might not actually say anything that would be misconstrued as an all-out policy bazooka. gotn: the stimulus draft people excited. since then, expectations have cooled. you have an early draft of a proposal and people get excited and then the final draft looks a lot different. yvonne: let's talk about belt and wrote at the moment. it seems like the tone is a little bit different this time around. we are potentially looking at a given the china has to go through international criticism. how well is beijing doing in terms of mitigating and maybe contai

if the report turned out to be strong, i think the market will be thinking the pboc has to refrain from further stimulus. this report is kind of positive to market because then markets will think we are not seeing more evidence of recovery, we have to wait a bit and the central bank will have to wait more to turn the policy status. vonnie: can we read anything into yuan moves. today we are trading at 6.7422? janet: we expect the yuan to remain quite stable. a lot of the good news is being reflexive in the market and also in the u.s.. we still have not got any update from the trade front. good news is being priced in. reference isant the federal reserve -- what they are going to do and we also think the fed is probably going to be on hold. that is why the monetary is going to be stable and i do not see too much yuan volatility from here. vonnie: if the fed is on hold and start its meeting today, will there be any tilt dovish in defense of putting out the possibility of a rate cut? understand why markets are thinking that the fed will turn more dovish. that lies with the weaker informatio

however, we are hearing in an interview with the former director of the pboc statistics and analysistment, he tells the economic information daily that the risk of asset bubbles is rising because of that boost in liquidity. he says cutting reserve ratios when the economy is already stabilized can put inflation higher, and guide a large amount of that funding into the property market. authorities are of course always worried about rising inflation, and particularly asset bubbles in property. still, even though the growth decline has bottomed out, we have weakness in the chinese economy. the producer price index, by most surveys, is expected to rise only 0.6% in 2019. when you have low factory inflation, that also affects companies' abilities to generate profit and also pay back debt. haidi: steve engle for us, going through the latest as we continue to watch for further signs of green shoots from the chinese economy. australian prime minister scott morrison hopes sweeping tax cuts announced in tuesday's budget will help sway disgruntled voters in the upcoming election. they also antic

how much are you assuming the pboc will have to do?ce those calling for more action. david: we have to remember that china has put through -- not just in terms of the last fiscal stimulus but blanket income cuts. the key point for china was the turn in total financing at the start of the year. that is the point where the easing and stimulus worked its way through the system. historically when we see the pickup ending, we see a six-month lag before we see a stabilizing in economic data. stephen, the global economic activity has been really week. -- weak. we think we see stabilization by the middle of the year. some signs of acceleration over the second half of this year into 2020, and that will keep the fed on hold for longer than the markets considerate. tom: let's go mathematical and talk fat tail risks. the german two-year is back to a negative 2.60. that is an ugly number. what are the ramifications of the new negative lower rates? before,if we look at and five years time is about plus 40 in germany so this is a money allusion. nega

loan growth and i think we do see the need for immediate and aggressive fund policy easing from the pboc right thanks to julia been appreciate the thoughts on the chinese economy this morning still to come, apple versus qualcomm >> the issue that we have at qualcomm is that they have a policy of no license, no chips this is in our view, illegal >> that was tim cook back in january, but today settling with qualcomm that full story coming up next plurks a multibillion dollar mobile deal in danger. the latest on the sprint and t mobile deal, and later on goldman sachs ceo david solomon sitting down in an exclusive interview with cnbc. why he has grown more bullish on the u.s. economy all that and more when worldwide exchange returns right after this so with xfinity mobile i can customize each line for each family member? yup. and since it comes with your internet, you can switch wireless carriers, and save hundreds of dollars a year. are you pullin' my leg? nope. you sure you're not pullin' my leg? i think it's your dog. oh it's him. good call. get the data options you need and still save h

sized businesses the move announced on the central government's website will be the sixth time the pboc has cut reserve requirements in the last year. >>> meanwhile, the global economy has entered a synchronized slowdown which may be difficult to reverse. the latest update of the tracking index shows all parts of the world's economy losing momentum but that the slowdown was not yet heading for a global recession. >>> elsewhere, talks between the u.k. government and the labor opposition party have so far failed to yield a break through on the brexit with the u.k. ready to leave the e.u. on friday they are seeking a second delay to brexit. a quick look at how sterling is reacting this morning. we're trading around 130.50. that is the level off of some of the highs we got to last week. still crucially above that 130 mark not really moving commensurate really with the amount of political updates that are going on and developments in the background, but let's get out to sylvia who is joining us live from westminster as ever, sylvia, never a dull moment with the brexit discussions. what can w

monetary easing by the pboc last year, three or four cuts, which have lowered short-term interest ratespport growth. kathleen: do you and your team have any expectation for another cut in the rrr ratio a lot of people are looking for? >> the current degree of monetary accommodation is sufficient. if you look at inflation, pressures are relatively low. you look also at a degree of fiscal stimulus that is in the pipeline. the monetary policy stance right now is appropriate. inflation remains well anchored at this moment. kathleen: well anchored? some would say not anywhere near high enough. the producer price index, which i think in china is watched so closely because people are looking for a sense of what is going on in factories, the economy. it is still not sending a very strong signal. >> the producer price index is important to follow. rebound in 2017, the ppi helped drive the economic recovery, left corporate profits, and support investment. in january and february, ppi was lack, but we saw a slight pickup in march. was ken kang. next, trade negotiations continue between the u.s. an

francine: what does the pboc do in the case of no deal? i that the uncertainty causes for future economic growth would be the biggest impact. we are starting to see some initial green shoots of stabilization in the economy. if there is no deal, that means the pboc will have to be more ready to step in with stimulus to make sure the economy stays on track. tom: what is the day calendar this week? what is the day calendar in china this week on trade discussions with the united states? focus is on washington obviously today. daytime, east coast in washington. meetings with mr. lighthizer and mr. mnuchin. after that, we have another big event in beijing next week, a belt and road forum. global how to foster trade with chinese characteristics, as you would call it. those events work in tandem and should be watched. francine: we need to talk more about the belt and road as china is moving to define its project for the first time. arend kapteynand both stay with us. coming up, a conversation with ann about 10 of santander -- and otin of0 -- ana b

after that, we saw suddenly the chinese pboc and its balance sheet. we saw the ecb balance sheet, the bank of japan balance sheet and the fed tapered qe. only running 100 billion a quarter. u.s. the end of january in x,llar terms, the big si their balance sheet has fallen by $550 billion. of central banks is once again reducing, the fed is still tapering, albeit at a slightly slower pace, but it leaves us concerned that there is too much optimism and you look at the u.s. economic surprise index and compare that against the s&p. that has hit a new low. it is the weakest of major economies. the datalow puncture, coming out and that has to be a worry for stocks but stocks don't seem to care at the moment. anna: we will say that. -- save that for a moment. patrick perret-green stays on the program. his morning, stocks on the move. commerzbank, unicredit could make an offer if deutsche talks fall through. some of the other stocks to watch that we flagged for the open, on the move. we will get to the things on the move this morning. this is bloomberg. ♪ loo

over the course of the last four or five months, pboc has done a great job of keeping the renminbi againsthe dollar in that range. it would be interesting to see if it starts to break outside of that. they have expressed some concerns about what would happen. nejra: given that we can draw line between trade talks and the eurozone economy and yesterday we saw the euro move high for the first time in seven sessions , how much does a successful resolution of the trade talks have -- how much potential does it have to support the euro and keep the 10 year bund yield firmly above zero? thing you canst say is that since probably mid december, bund yields and the euro have completely decoupled. it was this time last your when interest rate differentials didn't seem to be having an impact. you would certainly argue that situation-- the trade in china should have a positive impact, but think again about the last three months. drumbeats on the trade have been there very steadily, and yet the euro is weaker and weaker. the euro has reacted more to that story than to anything else. , at thedds to the s

nejra: china these expectations, will the pboc hold off?es puts a dent in subscriber growth, but can they keep adding subscribers? and are lori l shares worth it -- l'oreal shares worth it? we speak exclusively to the chief executive. ♪ nejra: welcome to "surveillance." let's get a

to do cart wheels and the services data which is the best in 14 months and the bottom line is the pboc is throwing deleveraging out the window and they're throwing as much credit for the problem as possible and what it means for the regional markets and the regional economy is good and as we're getting closer to yet again another trade deal and it seems like we get a boost from this every single time and the technical guys will look at the em and the semis, and pick something global and cyclical and we've extended the move and we're at fresh levels for a lot of things that we're running into the same areas and look at the dax and if anything europe has been the most beleaguered market across the world on the back of not great data over there and pmis that aren't showing you anything great, but yes, global data for the short run has bottomed and i think this is what we're seeing. >> if you believe there is a turn in china that means all sorts of good things for the other markets in that region as well as in europe particularly germany. >> so, just to play devil's advocate. >> sure. >> b

1st the thing that should jump out at everyone is how we're just hugging the 97 even area and today, pbocn some liquidity injection. everybody talking about shanghai composite up over 2% and indeed, it was let's take it going back to '06 and yes, right now it's trading, what, in the vicinity of 32.50 at one point, it was 6,000 and then at 22,000 one point, right around $39,000. the point of this is nobody is looking as good as the u.s. stock market tyler, back to you >> thank you very much mr. santelli >>> we count down to netflix earnings after the bell. streaming giants moment of truth. the competition getting fiercer. disney, apple, hulu. can netflix stay on top? we'll discuss that when "power lunch" returns in two. makes it beautiful. state of the art technology makes it brilliant. the visionary lexus nx. lease the 2019 nx 300 for $359 a month for 36 months. experience amazing at your lexus dealer. . >>> netflix shares up 35% so far this year. its results are due out after the bell today wall street expects a jump in revenue and subscribers numbers both in the u.s. and abroad, especia

we had the pboc announcing some long-termediated loans but we heard in the week they are not keen to pump more stimulus through. asian stocks look like they will close at a three-week low. in terms of stocks we are watching, samsung in focus. this $116 billion investment into chips. we heard that was probably already factored in. a are seeing weakness, disappointment over the delay of the foldable smartphone. withsplay coming through quarter numbers much wider than estimated in terms of weakness. with prices, shipments hurting lg display. in australia, the organic foods getting over 16% after regulatory approval from china. no doubt, that will increase the shipments of its organic foods and vitamins into the crucial chinese market. relieved to see ozzy is back below 70. it will make the holidays cheaper for you. he leads the largest political group in the european parliament and has downplayed the implications of a populist surge in next month's election. he argues that they are two disparate to form a group. he spoke to maria tadeo in athens as he launched his campaign to be the nex

couple data points about china because it does drive global growth and we got commentary from the pboc saying they were going to do more than what they've already done in terms of fiscal and monetary policy stimulus and last week didn't get a lot of press but total social financing, that's a liquidity measure in china, rose 80% in march up from 25% in january and february, so clearly there's momentum building and that will have implications for global growth so this scare about global growth, i think, is behind us and as a result i think earnings are going to accelerate from here >> steph's been making that call for weeks on end >> yep >> appears she's going to be right. about 30 points, farmer jim, away from s&p new high >> my colleagues just gave excellent analysis of what's driving this market higher, thank you very much. let's talk about emotion and sentiment. i can't help but think of sir john templeton's phases of a bull market. they die on euphoria we haven't had euphoria in this bull market, we haven't had it in the ten years plus it's been going on we almost had it in january

bloomberg economics does expect even more easing from the pboc. they are seeing a cut to the rrr as early as the first half of april despite the stabilization. is the stabilization we are seeing enough to ward off more stimulus? there may well be more stimulus coming from monetary policy, but i think the broad backdrop is you have now had six haves to nine months to stimulus out of china. it is difficult to gauge the order of magnitude. the asset price response. what is clear to me now is if you do get anything like positive global growth data, you are going to get a very pronounced response in risk assets. manus: we certainly are. good morning to you. let's delve into a couple of the asset classes. this is the outperformance of chinese bonds. rrr's are expected. do you consider there will be further outperformance on the bond side first of all? u.s. andelative to the global bond aggregates. it has been a stellar performance on the bond side. more to come? eric: i think the big call really is in risk assets and chinese equities. if you look at the

nejra: let's look at a chart showing pboc support may state amid the upswing, at least the title on ourhart. i don't know if you agree. do you? henrietta: i think they are going to try and support the economy and try to do what they can, but they do have this balanced strike. is amount of debt that outstanding in china is no longer what it used to be. so they have to take that into account. they can stimulate,. but not too much they're also further along in terms of infrastructure spend. there again, it's a different context they have to deal with. manus: the one thing that caught my eye over the last 24 hours is this dichotomy between the bond and the equity markets. the white line is your yield on 10 year government bond yields and china. this has got ramifications for the credit side. that's what i want to dig into. you are looking at this switch into the equity and out of bonds again. what is that drop in yields say to you? what does that shift in yields say to you on chinese credit? henrietta: i think we're in this environment where the central banks have been trying to prolong the