plus we are on watch for a possible injection out of the pboc.epo rate has gradually come down after the scare -- the tear we had three weeks ago. a lot to watch but again, the headline is probably going to be if you are a bull, that the csi 300 hits a new record today. haidi: all right. david there. band names there, really appreciated. coming up next, nearly 200% of evidence -- we are going to speak to their executive about the business. this is bloomberg. ♪ is bloomberg. ♪ vonnie: citigroup is predicting a slump in the u.s. and global markets. they say 10% correction is possible and a revised view of earnings. the continuing bullish targets mean and neutral stance is the most realistic position. saudi arabia is trying to raise oil output as confidence grows in the recovery and energy demand. the kingdom slashed exports last month, saying they would cut one million barrels. bloomberg can reveal that boeing has written to carriers warning of potential aircraft issues in the wake of a crash in indonesia last month. a document obtained exclusively

we do know the pboc want to contain financial risk. big part of aunt -- ant's biggest revenue generator are rem -- lender platforms. just lend. the two vehicles that have been telling out these microloans, so people can go and shop on the various alibaba platforms. alibaba is not holding much of those loans -- ant is not holding much of those loans on the books. the risk is going off to the banks. the pboc wants to eliminate those potential risks in the financial system. we have to see whether this is going to be, denting ant's ability to grow as it did in the past. haidi: what does this ultimately mean for the business going forward? for jack ma? we are all wondering if that means any future ipo drops. guest: most people are saying when it was going to go public, the ipo was going to be valuing the company around $300 billion. others i have seen $153 billion, but a lot has to be played out. evaluation could absolutely be slashed in half. this is not the worst-case scenario for alibaba/ant. because it is not a complete breakup. they ar

you've seen the pboc take a lot of liquidity out of the market.rmb taken out including $150 billion on one day, which the timing of the chinese year spooked the market. where we see it, we've had a strong rally and saw profit taking is healthy, but we expect there will be more profit-taking. what is needed is strong earnings to come through so if you meet expectations, i think you'll see stocks continue to selloff, which is fine, to be accepted -- expected after a strong rally. haslinda: will we see strong earnings, given the vaccine rollout has been pretty uneven and there are concerns that even china could fall short in terms of gdp growth? sam: it is a good question. to gdp we've seen in hong kong recently, -6%, negative three for the year and the last quarter. china, you've seen reasonably strong pmi data even though the last one was a slight disappointment. we've had 10 months of above 50 in pmi. when it comes to the vaccine rollout, less than 1% of the world population has been vaccinated so there is a long way to go and we think still those

guest: i am not too worried about the pboc.vided as much stimulus as say, some of the other major double central banks -- global central banks. i am a bit more concerned on the fiscal side. there we are likely to see more of a contraction in fiscal stimulus than on the monetary side. we think perhaps fiscal policy could be tightened by about 2% of gdp, which would be fairly significant. haslinda: then you upgraded india. what has changed? as it got to do with the recently announced budgets? guest: that is definitely part of the story. the budget is part of a bigger story, which is there has been marked fiscal space created for the central government, due to good tax intake. that percent the government with an opportunity to provide fiscal stimulus, which it really was not doing much of it all last year. other factors though as i mentioned, india we think is coming into the best part of its recovery from the pandemic. we think growth is going to be quite rapid this year. other factors are that the earnings are looking very good.

shery: how much are investors wanting with the pboc does?hey felt compelled to offer relief in statement. saying investors should not pay too much attention to the size of the open market operations. how much of a policy signal are we expecting? >> exactly. the key thing and what was different this year is that the liquidity injection before the lunar new year, the central bank -- typically banks need more cash over the holiday time. there was a very different year. there was less travel. the demand was not so high. the injection was smaller, which means that withdrawals will be smaller after the lunar new year. the pboc does drain short-term funds from the banking system after the lunar new year. it is important to mention they did full over the medium-term funds. the pboc central bank will maintain liquidity stable after it really kind of -- with the big liquidity squeeze. it is seeking to calm nerves and asking people to not read too much into this. shery: a preview of what to expect with the market open in china. also coming up next, it

ant, we know, is already being put into a holding company that will be overseen by the pboc. shery: and the stock reaction in hong kong is another thing we will be watching. let's head over to karina mitchell. >> new data from the u.k. said jess a collapse in january. the association says the volume of goods destined for the single market fell by 60% in the first -- 68% in the first month after brexit. eeo trucks are increasingly empty because truckers do not want to be trapped in new red tape. iran says it is willing to return to nuclear negotiations but only if the u.s. is sanctioned first. iran will only comply once it has verified that international penalties have been removed. this may meet fierce pushback from washington. myanmar -- people demand the release of civilian leaders. the army shut down the internet. several towns have thousands of people in the streets. these are the biggest protest since 2007. at least 100 workers at a hydropower plant are still missing after a glacier collapsed causing flash floods. the plant and the dam were damaged in the incident and th

that pboc raining back when it comes to -- reign ing back when it comes to financial risk?nk the pboc will be maintaining a level of liquidity they stung what is happening globally. in a global environment of recovery, the pboc has the luxury of trying to withdraw from the quiddity. however -- from liquidity. shery: how do you feel about the korean bond market? we continue to talk about record slows there last year and we continued to see them up until last month. shamaila: what we look at more closely is the korean dollar bond market. there, we think valuations do not look attractive relative to what else we can buy in higher-rated, lower yielding securities in emerging markets. there are some sectors trading inside u.s. investment rates, so the value has been limited. what we really like there is the korean banks where we think we are getting safe for the risk. haidi: are geopolitical risks something you are continuing to watch underwood new biden, administration, or has that side of the risk process for emerging markets, particularly here in asia, receded somewhat? shama

we want to see the pboc reflecting the rules in late north america.tick to what happened yesterday with the onshore yuan. it could be a bit misleading. the chances are already that in asia they will be looking for stock loss holds in dollar yuan. if that kicks off, it will spread to other currencies, the korean won, it follows pretty course -- ready closely. the singapore dollar. there will be a knock on effect across asia. where the yuan goes will be very important for how people scramble to cover short positions across the asian space. we do know that it has been relatively quiet in the asian currency markets so far. we know people are holding onto short positions where they ended last year. there is a risk here that this could be a quick acceleration for a dollar short covering if the yuan leads the way. >> mark cranfield, you can follow his -- you can follow him on the market blog. we have an alert on the bloomberg right now. we are getting the tokyo cpi numbers. core cpi still in contraction. .03%. still less of a deflation -- deflationary pressu

the pboc says stability imprudence is its focus saying it won't make any sharp turns.y report says policy will be precise but flexible with stability as a priority. the pboc says it will monitor the relationship between economic recovery and the prevention of risk and prevent what it is calling -- emoting a virtuous cycle in tech and manufacturing. new zealand is clamping down on property investors trying to rein in spiraling house prices. it will reinstate mortgage lending restrictions on marked first and tighten them further -- march 1 and tighten them through may. the government is flagging further measures to curb housing speculation. new zealand house prices continued to soar in january, gaining 12.8% from a year earlier. lawyers for former president trump have laid out their defense, arguing the trial is unconstitutional, that he didn't incite insurrection, and the democrats have made similar incendiary remarks. they say the charge should be thrown out because it violates his like to freeze beach and -- free speech. they say it is merely political theater. global

. >> one could extrapolate that from the pboc's foreign currency plan, which has barely budged.e's have demanded -- saying it is clear that channels for outflows will be opened up given these pressures. it is saturated, climbing to 2008 levels amid the improving economic picture that has given the pboc more leeway to normalize policy. meanwhile, china is saying capital controls will be loosens, but at ubs, they don't see that derailing. they are reiterating the call for the onshore rate to 620 this summer. a veteran asset managers latest move reflecting a un denominated assets. he has launched a new remember -- renminbi bond fund. rishaad: all right, sophie kamaruddin there. let's look at markets quickly. chinese markets going into the lunch break. let's look at some of the price action. we saw pressed equities. i want to get to these brokerages having a rough time. we saw a 7% drop for hong kong exchanges after this story in the economic times that hong kong is planning to raise its stamp duty on stock trading. it affected those brokerages, but the story has been removed from t

is headed and where the markets are expecting the pboc to do and why did they disappoint? that the stronger the growth is, it is more confident giving more confidence to the policymakers to impose market discipline. so it's not monetary policy tightening that will keep financial conditions tight, but rather it is financial discipline. we have already seen a number of corporate bond people flowing on and my expectation is that will continue throughout the year. more importantly, the access of credit for the sme's would already be tight. we have seen the credit impulse go from its peak in may 2 a very low number as of december. that's not likely to be easy for the s&p. haidi: when you take a look at central-bank activity and the different strategies, how does that impact you in terms of which currencies you are favoring at the moment? >> at this point, even if a weak dollar environment continues, or reemergence in the medium-term, central-bank activity is really crucial in the outlook for the fx. on a relative basis, my expectation is that the indian rupee would underperform

pboc is allowing it to strengthen but only on a slow path.ngs are helping to build the central bank in china. if you look at what they have done over the last for years, they've hardly done any q.e. in china, even after the pandemic last year, they took a gradual approach to it. whereas, in the u.s. q.e. has been around for some time and has been very large. so, this is storing up risks for asset markets in the united states much more -- more so in than china. it will help chinese assets. shery: our strategist mark renfield. you can follow more on the bloomberg. you can get a market rundown with one click but also commentary and analysis from experts. let's turn to the first word headlines. karina: the world health organization said is a highly unlikely that coronavirus came from a laboratory in china. speaking in wuhan, the w.h.o. official said the virus could have been introduced from a wet market in the city by a person that was infected or by a product sold there. the research team comprised 17 international and 17 chinese experts. malays

at the same time, we have seen the pboc let short-term rates go up a little bit. it is a bit of a single that tightening is coming -- a signal that tightening is coming. for us it is too early. if china does tightened monetary policy at the same time it tightens fiscal and housing policies and credit policies, then there is a risk that the chinese will undershooting market expectations. shery: we will get new yuan loans data later in the week. what are you expecting on that and could the lunar new year help with the massive demand? shaun: we expect a fairly modest number. this is a key number. as we know, the economic activity data we going to a dark period during the run-up to the chinese new year. the credits are very important from that perspective. they are also really poor because the banks quotas are reopened again pared we get a sense of how big those quotas are for lending this year. and that will help us yes where not all gdp is going to be -- help us guess where all the gdp is going to be. to put in perspective, the net flow in china has been about 4% of

do you see a holding company that will be overseen by the pboc?rced to divest some of its purchases? it is a long question because there's so many different tentacles to this story. stephen: a clear line between ant and alibaba was ant -- may be the infamous speech that jack ma made in shanghai a few months ago was an attempt to make ant a rule maker. it's very much now a role taker from the dilatory authorities so their fate will be decided in discussions with but driven by the regulator and we have already seen signs of may be a financial holding company with more steak holding. it's very likely they will have to get rid of some of the businesses, the data they collect will be more tightly regulated, so this is a different debate than what we are seeing with alibaba where there's been accusations of monopolistic or dominant behavior. actually, you know, most products -- all products on alibaba are available on other platforms. some more competition might be helpful to the perception of alibaba and that is growing. we see that with jd and with th

do we need to focus on more income inequalities within the country to understand what pboc could focusn? elsa: i think one thing to keep a close eye on his credit growth within china. we just saw figures in january. they are strong, but that is what you would expect -- seasonally, they are probably not as strong as they would have been this time of year. so beginning to think about reining in credit growth, focusing on financial capability concerns. if that is the case, you can see a pullback through the year. tom: i must focus on 37,000 on bitcoin. bitcoin wonders from -- wanders from mining. how do i buy a car with something that is not legal tender? elsa: it is an interesting question. in theory, i could set up a car dealership and except anything in return. i can accept bananas or birthday cake. in practice, there is a reason why we accept money, because it is a convenient means of exchange. nothing is preventing the private sector from accepting bitcoin and encouraging bitcoin and sections. the problem becomes that government is not accepting it. for tax liabilities or things like

the pboc offering $31 billion of liquidity and the won fairly steady.hen it comes to hong kong stocks versus the a share market , chinese stocks are 30% pricier on shore. the yuan valuation metric has the csi 300 at its highest level in nearly six years. a bit of a limp start to the year of the ox. not the fanfare we were expecting. credit suisse actually downgrading china markets from overweight to market weight saying share momentum is lacking. annemarie: i think everyone is excited to put the year of the rat behind us. potentially there is optimism going into the year of the ox. thanks so much for joining us. we have more numbers coming out. air france looks like they are struggling in terms of capital. matt: the cash burn is high. the breaking redhead line is air france is expecting a bailout. this is going to come within weeks. if you look at the cash burn, air france burned through 2 billion euros in the final quarter of last year. if you look into the depth of the story, the question is days or weeks, not months. this is michael o'leary's point.

the pboc is driving the move towards digital currency, but that has been a holdover from private societyit is euro-dollar, renminbi, and bitcoin. in some sense, they are on the french, but it is something people are thinking about in a way to think about macro risks. our macro risk model shows may be 9% of it. so it is not broader global macro, but it is starting to come into the conversations where you want to relate it to a bunch of different assets. jonathan: great conversation. mark, love having you on. come back soon. mccormick there of td bank. -- mark mccormick of td bank. tom: the absolute ambiguity over yen, we didn't get to it, but he's got a swiss franc/japanese yen pair in his trade of the week. i get the mystery of the euro, the whole vaccine overlay. i really wonder what yen will be doing, and i can't get much conviction out of people. jonathan: not much conviction in the fx market. we came into the year looking for a weaker dollar. a massive short growing on top of it. a challenge to that emerged in the first weeks of the year. tom: it did. mike mccormick of a call of stab

it'll be interesting to see how the pboc reacts. a first test of central banks withdrawing stimulus. let's figure out what it means for investors. let's talk with someone who is been a long time investor in china. linda, from a politics point of view, how do you think investors should read the various calls that have been taking place between u.s. and chinese officials, which have culminated in this new year's eve eve call between the two presidents? linda: i think the biden administration -- it is a good move to choose the chinese new year's eve for the call to happen, this long-awaited call. based on what i have read about the key content of the call, i think there is a great opportunity for the two countries to collaborate in many important fronts, in particular in infrastructure building as well as in the climate crisis management as well as public crisis management. there are a lot of opportunities. alix: does that imply you think the export tariffs are going to get rolled back by the u.s.? does that need to happen to pave the

we have seen the pboc and liquidity, it will stabilize, but it is dry on the liquidity.y have seen a short-term on the indicators like these services to my, the manufacturing pmi's. >> of course. there is an element of momentum that is fading but when you are thinking about a 2021 girls outlook, it is one of the countries in the world where you can be most confident that growth is going to be strong. we may not be quite at the same levels that we had through q4 of last year, you think about what is happening in the u.k. or the eurozone or the u.s. today, that relative girls outperformance is absolutely clear. even if you do see more of a cyclical pick up later in the year, china stands to benefit from that as well. the outlook is still pretty positive even if you are seeing a little bit of that momentum starting to fade. guy: i have china in my portfolio. what i'm getting from you is that you are not convinced about the european picture and that leads me to conclude that you just stay overweight in the u.s. it worked well last year, the year before that. we just got our

the pboc will remain on hold, they didn't do anything with lending rates, are we on pause?hat's the narrative they've given. chinese equities are extending their decline. we will dig deeper into that. could it be copper become so expensive that the commodity rush on seats the economic growth story? we will talk about the economic heavyweight, more from paul krugman who says getting america through the pandemic is more important than the infrastructure investment or servicing the debt. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> if you had time and unlimited administrative capacity and if there weren't the political imperative to make good on promises, he might try for something that was a little bit more targeted than that, but borrowing is cheap, money is not an object amazingly in all of this stuff, and you really want to get a lot of aid out the door fast. you have to get people through these six months of pandemic and we need the economy poised to make a fast come back once it can. >> ok, well as you know, you were in an interesting discussion, debate with larry summers. are we going to pu

and the pboc letting the market tighten, constricting the rates, the overnight rates, but they seem toave eased. ryanair expect to lose as much as 950 million euros in the year through to march. resurgence of covid 19 cases in europe prompts governments to impose fresh travel curbs. the lockdowns mean passenger numbers. they will now be between 26 and 30 million compared to the previous forecast of 35 million. the ryanair ceo, michael o'leary, joins us now. good to see you this morning. it looks as if easter is a goner. the question we have for you, 950 million euros to the end of march. just how cautious is that guidance? is that your worst-case scenario or could it get a lot worse from here from michael? good morning. michael: it will not get any worse than that. we have given a range of 850 billion to 950 billion. high think it will be towards the lower end of that range because of the traveling restrictions. this morning, traffic down 80% and despite that, three times more in the third quarter than our competitors but nobody is traveling. the restrictions mean user will essentially

pboc ensuring liquidity in the money market in hong kong, also down .1 of 1%. all eyes on new horizon health care, currently searching. treasury yields pulling back from the one year high, at 1.33% . questioning how high it can climb before spoiling risk rally. the china 10-year rising to 2.28%, and in the commodities market, crude closed $62 a barrel. brent above $65. the energy crisis continues in the u.s. and gold up by .4 of 1% at 1782 right now. rishaad: copper futures in gold the topic of our next conversation in australia where oz minerals came out. four year profit rose because of higher gold volume. let's get over to adelaide and speak to the ceo. thank you for joining us. copper prices up 50%, gold up in the middle of last year. tell us about your earnings and how this has worked through 2019 the backdrop of a global pandemic. >> [indiscernible] we released our 2020 financial results this morning and we are pleased to say we had a 30% increase in our profit, which allowed us to increase our dividends this year. it is the highest profit we have made in

some say it is to do with the pboc ahead of the lunar holiday. and expending gains from one-year highs boosted by lower supplies, wti for next year, 2021, topping 50 barrels yesterday. crude inching ever closer to the $60 mark. david: yup. inflation. are we getting it corrected? the other big corporate story we are talking about today, alibaba and and -- ant. beijing dramatically pulled the plug. let's talk about what that agreement might look like. what can you tell us? >> what we've been told is that all of aunt -- all of ant's business will be folded into this financial company that would be regulated by -- regulated like a bank. it could, soon as next week before the lunar new year holiday. they are still exploring the possibility of an ipo, but the process could be dragged out for a long period of time. haidi: we are also hearing chinese banks are paring back joint consumer lending. tell us about that. >> that development is overhauling the process. ant and at least a dozen banks are planning to pare back are cooperation on lending because l

in contrast to asia, there has been a little bit of a pause recently, especially as the pboc is moving. slowing some of the gains. i think asia has been a little bit more of a pause recently but that will not last long. they are going to keep on powering higher and we see that in the ipo you cited. rishaad: do check out the bloomberg markets live blog for real-time commentary. we have nissan motor's. joining us on the plans to sell more electric cars and whether the chip shortage will affect that. juliette: a cfo in plans to expand production facilities and drugs to fight cancer. that is ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪ want to save hundreds on your wireless bill? with xfinity mobile you can. how about saving hundreds on the new samsung galaxy s21 ultra 5g? you can do that too. all on the most reliable network. sure thing! and with fast nationwide 5g included at no extra cost. we've got you covered. so join the carrier rated #1 in customer satisfaction. and get a new samsung galaxy starting at $17 a month. learn more at xfinitymobile.com or visit your local xfinity store today. rishaad: a b

pboc, draining funds from the financial system and as a result, chinese stocks underperform but some coming through in asia equity markets. treasury yields on the rise, one point one, back to 1.1 handle on the 10-year treasury yield. a steeper curve at the longer and and the conversation is around stimulus and how quickly it comes and what that does to inflation expectation. oil, also moving to the upside, 57 handle on brent, the highest in more than a year. certainly in focus. let me mention what we've got coming through on the drug sector. gsk, giving lines this morning. to develop an mrna covid vaccine variant. they will be partnering on a new mrna vaccine. they are going to support the manufacturer of up to 100 million vaccines. where it takes place, the ability to ramp up the scale is a conversation of late. interesting to see this focus, while not the front runners in the existing vaccine race, interesting to see the focus on the mutations we are seeing. matt: interesting the global media refers to one variation as the british variant, even though it seemed we were trying to st

the pboc says it will monitor the relationship between economic recovery and the prevention of risk andirtuous cycle. protests continue across myanmar after the army impose martial law and overnight curfew. the military also wants to ban gatherings of more than five people. myanmar's de facto leader, aung san suu kyi, and civilian leaders, are in detention as the army disputes the election. taiwanese exports hit a record in january, boosted by demand for computer chips and companies ordering components ahead of the neuner -- lunar new year holiday. imports also hit an all-time high, rising almost 30%. high-performance computing and 5g demand are also driving exports. global news, 24 hours a day, on-air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. back to you. shery: still ahead, we have an exclusive interview with stefan leser. we will discuss the outlook for china and how the hotel industry is coping with the ongoing pandemic. but first, we break down softbank's earnings after trad

as we digest the latest moves -- the pboc holding on the weekend.ur next guest says we have likely reached some sort of emotional top in the market. joining us now is the capital inc. chairman and ceo, brett mcgonagle. bitcoin -- that's what you are referring to, saying when the news cycles are focused on things like elon musk buying bitcoin, when we see the market cap is a trillion dollars, i think two things -- and emotional, speculative top, but that market cap and so many people on wall street, cios all over the place saying if the institutional trade is there, they are going to buy it, we are going to see more big companies doing it believing it's going to go a lot further. guest: i think it will ultimately go a lot further. it has had good moves recently -- elon musk has been a big cheerleader and from your lead in it looks like he's saying it's a little too top he. maybe he has something we are not aware of. what i think ultimately it will go higher. i'm not trying to throw cold water on the fire by any means. what i think as you will probabl

the pboc versus the other major central banks as well as china has the capital flow at the moment.nce of -- the trade plus -- trade surplus we have been observing in recent quarters. the government will be approving the 45 year trend and we note china has announced a circulation strategy as well as reinforcing each other and [indiscernible] i think we take a constructive medium-term view on the chinese currency outlook. haidi: we know the economy and going green is a major theme. are you expecting more developments or have we had all the policy details they are going to give us? jian: i think this low carbon and green economy has been an assessment by the chinese government. work preparations have been undergoing and we expect more announcements in that area. we forgot to mention that supply and security as well as indigenous innovation, that among everything else would be the key focus and priority for the chinese government in the next five years. also to ensure resilience of the supply chain domestically like what the rest of the world has been concerned about. haidi: sticking w