obviously, the pboc has some kind of concern of the rates. we think it can still cut rates, but it should be in june, our best case. to be honest, with the credit we have announced in the weekend, we now think the cut in may is of higher chances now. paul: china is facing external pressure -- pressures as well. let's talk about tariffs, and how president biden has a plan to raise levees on ev's. how might that impact china's economy? david: our assessment is that the proposed tariff, it has limited impact with china's economy. that is because the exports of ev from china to the u.s. is a very small share compared to the total export package, and also china's economy. , definitely it will have some impact. and in the extreme case, it can drag the growth by one percentage point. , on the other hand, we find it a very extreme case. we think that for most cases, the impact should be in the longer-term. because it demonstrates the u.s. tough attitude toward china exports. paul: your team there at bloomberg economics has a new report out, a deep di

this is after the pboc fix, levels we haven't seen in four months. and that really shows the pboc is allowing potentially their currency to weaken. we are also keeping an eye on some of the other crosses. the aussie now is losing some ground against the greenback. we saw bit of a jump earlier. still gaining ground against the yen, and this is against the backdrop of the expectations of what the boj is going to do.

do you anticipate any easing from the pboc in the near term?do you think it is constrained a little bit in terms of what we are seeing going on with the yuan? neeraj: i do not expect any significant easing on the rates front from a policy perspective from pboc for two reasons. one is the capital account and the exchange rates of dollar cny becomes an important part to focus on. the second part, which is a more domestic concern out think about, is the net interest in margin and the banking system. as you think about some of that risk in the -- and the challenges facing the banking system, from property market, local government funding i do think, the banks would need to keep a healthy level, which keeps a constraint on potential significant easing coming from the pboc. so more of a neutral stance. and more of tweaking the liquidity through rrr's, but less so the rate cuts. paul: all right, we will have to leave it there. but thanks so much, as always, for joining us with your insights. neeraj seth of blackrock there. we have plenty more ahead. t

from the pboc to the bank of england.d from governor andrew berry, who says there would be a case for cutting rates in the u.k. if the economy and inflation play out as expected. he spoke to us after the monetary policy committee voted to hold rates steady. >> our forecasts are conditional from the number of things. one of them is leaves the market curves to set them up. so it's important. if we find the markwest with the market curve produces the best judgment which has inflation below target or above target or not at target, we say so. this is where we have got to. the judgment is that. it follows, i think, and this is a comment i made earlier, we are saying that if the world evolves as the forecast suggests that was, probably the case will be there for a less restrictive policy. everything is conditional. >> is julian a live meeting? >> all meetings are live. >> is julian hike likely? >> the key point i will make is that we have changed in view on the likely persistence of inflation, or the second round effects. we thi

at least, in unofficial adviser to the pboc and a number of other governing bodies in china.hank you for joining us. give us your reaction to these measures, is this going to be enough in your opinion to put a floor under this property market, how substantial, how significant will these measures be? >> i think the first take is, these are very helpful measures compared to the policies that we have already had in the past year or two. and i think it's also very important and significant to signal to the market what companies are changing its priority of the policymaking. so it is trying to put some into the property market. i think by lowering the interest rate or by allowing a greater portion of the housing pricing to go through mortgage, this is really providing some incentive for the homebuyers to consider the real market again. however, for the moment, i do not think that is sufficient to attract enough buyers to stabilize the market. for two reasons. one is, the housing market is sluggish, given the high prices relative to people's expectations of where their income it wi

the pboc controls primarily quantity. a lot of the things they do is they say, we are going to reduce foreign exchange and the reserve requirements of the bank and we will change the way the reserve requirements can be used and they are not really touching interest rates which is correct. they can either control quantity or interest rates. not both. they are unwilling to do too much on interest rates so i would not be surprised they are decreasing the reserve requirements of the bank. completely correct and consistent policies. haslinda: andrew, hang tight. we will have more from andrew harris. let's have a check on how hong kong financials are doing. they are up at the highest level since june 2023 on the backs of the high dividend stocks in hong kong are advancing on chinese regulators' proposal to exempt individual investors from paying dividend sectors on a cities' shares. the hong kong exchange rising as much as a percent. china concession bank up more than six. and china mobile also among the gainers. keeping an eye

the pboc letting the currency weaken. it's not that the pboc is letting the currency go. it's mobile -- more about accounting for greater to demand -- greater demand of foreign fx. yvonne: let's bring in steven chu and mark cudmore. the overall sentiment in the market is in the negative. that's due to the disappointing seven your auction. you can't help but feel that these auctions are having greater sway in markets nowadays. >> that's fair. i was saying, there's a massive auction scheduled this week. most of our team are like, not a big issue. nonfarm payrolls next week. the fed coming up. the new projections. those are the bigger issues. it was interesting. we dismissed it because the backdrop picture is yields continuing to go higher. global yields and u.s. years have -- yields have more to go. the idea that there is still rate ties -- cuts doesn't make sense. the base case should be no move either way. until we get more into the narrative, yields have hired to go. haslinda: rates, yields tend to go higher. how high can they go? it's not just in the u.s., it's elsewher

because the pboc remains very intent on managing this tightly.think volatility will remain depressed. that said, i think dollar cny will gradually creep back towards the 730 high we saw in october last year. haidi: does this now become more of a geopolitical issue? we had a note of caution from janet yellen talking about intervention. clearly we have seen that from japanese authorities. do you think this will become a point of contention going forward? alvin: i think at this point actually, the intervention in the yen -- well, suspected intervention in the yen we saw last week -- was probably justified. there was increasing volatility to the upside from about two weeks ago. it was trading 155 two thursdays ago and was trading above 160 last monday quite suddenly. i think the volatility surge does justify some intervention. but certainly if tokyo continues to perhaps intervene from here and try to push it down into the 140's, it could create some tension in terms of economic policymaking with washington. as you mentioned, yellen made it quite clea

this is after the pboc fix, levels we haven't seen in four months. and that really shows the pboc is allowing potentially their currency to weaken. we are also keeping an eye on some of the other crosses. the aussie now is losing some ground against the greenback. we saw bit of a jump earlier. still gaining ground against the yen, and this is against the backdrop of the expectations of what the boj is going to do. i think the levels here, something we haven't seen since 2013. of course keeping an versus yen as well. this is against the backdrop of their policy path. there was expectations what are central banks going to do. and of course the fed expectation. that is the big one we are watching. on that note, we heard from that know the hawk, neel kashkari. he was true to form. take a listen. neil: i have been asked many times who'd we take potential interest rate increases off the table. i don't think anybody has formally taken them off the table, even me. i say that we could sit here for as long as necessary until we get convinced that inflation is

pboc seems to be leaning in. they said that six at the weakest level since january, allowing declines. we see the korean won under pressure no thanks to the strengthen the dollar but it mostly held steady after the bok kept rates unchanged as expected . yen has been moving up towards 156.9 earlier the session, i want to highlight what we see in chinese equities, it declines on a day where other counterparts are gaining. there also concerns about geopolitical tensions. hang seng leading declines dragging the index down. csi three hundred, material stocks but as you say it is about nvidia and about how even though there was a high bar, it really delivered on what we hear from the ceo, it sounds like more is to come. >> companies and countries are partnering with nvidia to shift the installed base of traditional data savers -- data centers to consolidated computing and build a new type of data center, aia factories, to produce a new commodity, artificial intelligence. >> all good news for asia chip making stocks. it

and i would note the pboc had announced a similar facility before.here was 100 billion rmb and 2 billion have been used. it's not clear the details aren't there. it's not clear what the takeup will be on this funding. and so again, i appreciate that the government is acting but will need to wait and see if this actually leads to housing being absorbed taken out of the supply moved into public housing and starting to resolve some of these issues in the housing market. >> really greet have you us. ron, lazard asset management we'll have more from sydney huang, michael del, and bill mcdermott. we were talk about the opportunity to end the global energy transition. what you focusing on? >> pretty soon this hall behind me will fill up with 200 delegates and exhibitors. the theme of this year's conference is delivering the new energy economy. australia's oil and gas loyalty be here. does seem like an oxy moron. they have been dealing with these theme. a carbon capture storage, hydrogen and the world of gas as a transition field. that fits from what we hear

so this is interesting in that we are hearing from sources that already, after the pboc announcementt it would have a nationwide program to provide 41 .5 billion u.s. dollars in cheap funding for soes to go in and buy out the excess inventory out there, there is three point 6 million square feet of unsold inventory of homes in china as of the end of 423, the highest since 2016. for there is urgency. this bloomberg's group yesterday is saying that china's megabanks are urging branch managers to act quickly to get loans south to soes so they can buy up those unsold homes. we don't know if this will lead to a massive surge in new lending, because once again, they are also being urged to do the proper division for, again, ensure that the fund's lent out will be used for the intended purpose of buying up unsold units for pennies on the dollar and then perhaps turning them into affordable housing. other areas like the stock market, where they could get better returns for the soes -- not implying that the soes would be something nefarious, but it has happened in the past there was another g

second day in a row where we saw a weak fix from the pboc, by that is not like letting the yuan go. it is more to recount for demand from foreign fx including the dollar. lizzy: the effects rippling across global markets into asia. that is avril hong in singapore. we can dig deeper into the treasury auction and another weak sale reinforcing concerns about the impact of higher yields just after the beige book pointed a modest growth with consumers pushing back against higher prices. jill jesus -- desis joins us now. however markets reacted to this lackluster demand for dead? i am wondering if we will see universal post pce tomorrow? >> as avril outlined, it is been something of a sour mood. this is the third straight sale where you have seen lackluster demand spilling over into markets and creating these concerns about yields trending higher. as you mentioned earlier, the yield on policy sensitive two year notes trending toward 4.9%, the highest since earlier this month, so kind of illustrates a lot of these concerns happening in the market right now. these concerns about swelling su

haslinda: speaking of china, the pboc remaining patient and wants to see what the fed does. it would help us to the yuan from here? charu: i think the pboc is in a bit of a difficult situation because we have seen this increasing narrative out of the g7 where they are highlighting concerns about china's overcapacity. and china has that expert engine that is supporting the economy. something like a balance sheet recession at this stage, exports is something that they need to continue to power ahead with. and for that, they need a weaker yuan. but if they were to go for a measured devaluation, that g7 narrative against china's export push could get even stronger so he could bite them back a lot harder, so they have to be a bit more careful around their policy on the yuan and i expect a very stable outcome there. haslinda:. haslinda: i wonder if it is justified for the yuan to be lower from here? you talked about the trade tensions, g7 finance ministers calling out china's trade policies. we also have underwhelming support for the economy. property will support notwithstanding.

here in asia, china releasing economic data on friday, pboc expected to keep its one-year rate unchangedo avoid further weakness and australia's government would put the fiscal blueprint that is due on tuesday. haidi: so much of that comes down to the inflation forecast. jim chalmers told us about the government spending priorities in his only tv interview ahead of tuesday's budget. >> we've got a finer balance between the near term in the longer term, making sure we can provide cost of living relief as we invest in made in australia. it will invest in the future and forecasting inflation is tricky at the best of times. with the budget will do is put downward pressure on inflation rather than upward pressure. we made substantial progress in the fight against inflation. it's not mission accomplished. budget will be focused on that. guest: since you've been putting the budget together, the outlook has changed. has that changed your thinking? jim: we are in the fight against inflation, and needs to be the primary focus and that is why you'll see substantial spending restraint, cost-of-livin

but also opening up these are the ethics the pboc's hour but what are your ethics? what is it mean to do honor to someone else's story? i find they are really excited about finding untold stories and people who were not represented in the media and being able to go out and tell those stories and then seeing them publishes the exciting thing at a high school level and seeing the response from an audience that you actually have the power to tell someone else's story and you can have some really sophisticated conversations with teenagers when they have gone out to the field and done an interview and look for soundbites, then edited it and knowing the power they have a storytellers to do that brings them to a whole another level of understanding the media that they see when they are scrolling through their feet are talking to someone about what's going on in the news. you have created that media, you really understand what you are seeing and what's happening in the media landscape at large. >> i think it will be fascinating to see over the next 10 years or so how this g

and as we hear about how the pboc is going to come through with funding for state owned companies that have been tasked with buying up these unsold homes of distressed developers, that is something else we are watching in the asia-pacific as well. for now we are seeing not that much moves on japanese equities in south korea. a bit of a climb. dollar-yen moving towards that 156 level. of course something we have been watching in the l last week was the unwinding of the fed rate hike expectations. let's look at what we are seeing in australia today. because we saw the asx 200 ending the week with declines. admitted a recovery. the aussie has also been in focus. that data out of australia prompting rba rate cut bets. we will keep a close eye on those minutes later in the week, tomorrow that is. we are seeing treasuries in the u.s. climbing. brent is also in focus after those fresh attacks over the weekend, putting geopolitical risk out of ukraine in the middle east in focus. we saw weekly gains just below $84 a barrel. haidi: let's bring in our next guest who expects the market turbulence

paul: if the pboc does provide some rate cuts, is probably going to come at the expense of a weakening yuan. how do policymakers get the balance right? rajeev: that's always been their challenge. when one looks at the yuan, over the last 10 months, it has been broadly stable against the dollar. policymakers in china are very sensitive to any movements in the yuan against the dollar because it conveys confidence. but when one looks at the trade-weighted basket, which is the official policy measure, looking at how china's currency is evolving against a basket of its trading partners, the currency is not doing too badly at all. it has appreciated quite a bit. so i don't think they should worry too much about the currency. even if it does weaken a bit, it's volatility have been very low, and it could weaken without hurting confidence. a rate cut, even if it does create weakness in the currency, i don't think it's a bad thing for china. paul: rajeev de mello of gama asset management is going to be sticking around. we will look ahead to the upcoming u.s. cpi numbers later. i want to get some

we did get the pboc providing some support for the yuan with its fix, the lowest since the middle of april, but if you look at this, the catch-up that we saw in onshore yuan not fully embracing. now moving back toward 721 for the trajectory of the currency. let's take a look at what we see in equities as well, because we have been keeping a close eye on the equity risk premium or china, and that has been widening versus other peers making a more compelling case for chinese equities. we have seen how earnings have been coming in more resilient reacting to what we get out of the politburo meeting. paul: thanks very much. let's get more on the markets without first guest, aipac strategist. i want to get your thoughts on the rally we are seeing in the mainland, chinese stocks trading higher after coming back from the extended weekend. how sustainable do you think this rally is? >> given the recent economic data and policy support we have seen from authorities, but the problem is the underlying issue with the property market is unlikely to be resolved anytime soon, so it is difficult to s

see dollar strength today putting pressure on the chinese currency that was well supported by the pboct a check on how the markets are faring with avril hong in the lion city. avril: we are looking at japan just about to return from the large break and that's not all, they have been returning from a long holiday. of course they are playing catch-up today to that bout of fed optimism in the run-up in u.s. stocks overnight and of course today, a bit of bucking the trend from the likes of sony, start following the most in about three months after its proposal to buy paramount global is raising financing concerns. those are among the stocks we are watching today, we will keep an eye on the likes of tokyo, electron as well as toyota to see how the narratives of their weak yen and the ai boom for these respective companies are playing out and benefiting them. let's take a look at how the japanese currency is faring because it has returned to weakness as traders focus on those yield differentials and that's despite what was likely two rounds of intervention. we are moving back towards the 155

paul: in terms of monetary policy though, do you think the pboc's appetite for easing is somewhat wantedy the weakness in the yuan right now? >> yes, and like everyone else, the u.s. policy is not helping anyone taking the policy in the direction they would like, but having said that i think the yuan, they are upset they will have to try to cut. maybe the pressure on the yuan will be less than other currencies out there versus the dollar. paul: you specialize in fixed income. i'm wondering how you manage a fixed income portfolio in asia under the current environment, especially when it comes to credit. >> probably at some of the tightest levels so i think there will be a focus on quality trade. i think the markets are already optimistic. think second differentiation and focusing on ideas because the market does not seem to be differentiating as it was several months ago. i think we are still looking for volatility that we would expect to be good opportunity to buy and we see volatility every now and then given macro conditions. paul: all right, thu ha chow from robeco singapore. we have

>> central banks are buying pboc , the gcc countries. we think that will drive gold on the long-term. haslinda: so this is gold being bought as a haven play? >> it's going away from u.s. dollar denominated assets. we think diversification makes sense. haslinda: eli lee, bank of singapore, we thank you so much for being with us today. still had this hour, our conversation with india's biggest listed real estate developer. we will discuss why they're expecting demand for luxury property to surge. but first, the latest on hong kong hedge funds. against the decision to shut down in the face of insider traded -- trading charges and a billion-dollar in redemption requests. keep it here with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ haslinda: asian markets under pressure, that includes a hang seng as well as the csi 300 index. hong kong stocks extending losses into a fourth straight day. traders tracking a selloff on wall street, fueled by worries the fed will put off that rate cut is officials aim to get control of inflation. the hang seng down about 1% right

the pboc will 10 along with relevant ministries.e will be watching for details from that press briefing. annabelle: thank you for that. the domestic recovery is expected to look a little patchy. what are we looking out for when it comes to property investments? >> property is still one of the biggest drags on the economy. we expect property investments to extend declines again. that said, the government let -- government led investments could counter that and we are already seeing a steady drumbeat of progressive policies with a rollback of homebuying curves in city after city and now a new announcement on this buyback of excess housing inventory. we are not going to see the effects of that on the april reading just yet. we will have a few lingering effects of last year's bond issuance being dispatched into infrastructure investment. we saw pmi reading for construction activity hitting a new high for april and that will help fix asset investments. annabelle: it is a big date dump so we get other things -- it is a big data dump so we

we will have the latest from paris and hear from a former deputy government -- governor of the pboc.ts are trading slightly to the upside through the asian session. european futures plant higher hoping to follow the fed higher. my expectation of the fed cut restored to these markets. the aussie and then the yen lose ground shifting expectations around the in slightly less hawkish commentary. markets today starts now. tom: the earnings story is ubs and in the first quarter, the net income beat almost tripled estimates, 1.8 billion. the estimates had been a little shy of 600 million. so a really significant be in terms of net income for the first quarter. a little bit of shock when it came through to the wealth income. that came in a little bit below estimates. the investment banking part of business doing better. 500 55 million. the return on tangible equity of return of 9%. equities had been for 3% and on the asset management story, softer than estimates but the top story, top line net income strong in the first quarter and they have recommitted to be able to return that capital to s

less pressure on the yuan to depreciate makes it easier for the pboc to be easier in its policy mix. positive for chinese stocks and, therefore, for hong kong stocks. haidi: garfield reynolds leads our markets live coverage of there. thank you. much more ahead on "daybreak: australia." we are also watching oil prices. iraq a few days to iron ore prices in particular after a big month of gains, a bit of downside to end out the week. oil having the biggest weekly drop since february. the demand-side concern continues to weigh. increased speculation that opec+ will prolong output cuts to shore up prices, and supply-demand dynamics playing out. we are headed to the biggest weekly fall for crude since february. trading just near $79 a barrel for new york crude. more ahead them up. this is bloomberg. ♪ tax valara, you don't have to worry about things like changing tax rates or filing returns. avalarahhh ahhh annabelle: you're watching "daybreak: australia." the latest on the corporate front. bloomberg has learned that nomura and mizuho financial group are facing more than $100 million of p

last month and household borrowing contracted tsf tlslowed to the record low turning negative the pboctated its stance the problem for the central bank right now is more credit going to considering than consumption which could add to deflation expectations and limit the effectiveness of other tools to support the economy further, particularly around infrastructure, china will issue long-dated treasury bonds from may 17th the move has been watched by the market after being announced in march at the npc in singapore, sam baddas, singapore business news. >>> coming up on the show, shot in the arm softbank swinging to the second consecutive quarterly net profit thanks to the investment in the chip design firm we'll get to the latest after the break. stay tuned under of the utiful fo when i started in 2016 i would go to the post office and literally fill out each person's name on a label and now with shipstation we are shipping 500 beauty boxes a month it takes less than 5 minutes for me to get all of my labels and get beauty in the hands of women who are battling cancer so much quicker shi

we did see an initial reaction in asia fx, and feeding into the story of delta resilience, ebsa -- pboc coming through the fix allowing the currency to weaken. dollar-china moving around the 7.25 handle. the yen is in focus. let's take a look at asia chip stocks, and the ones benefiting from nvidia's stellar scorecard as we saw the likes of tsmc and sk hynix bucking the trend where most of asian stocks are treading water or in negative territory. these are the ones in green. really feeling what we got from nvidia. tom: avril hong, thank you very much indeed. staying on the story and getting more analysis, the chipmaker at the center of the ai boom surging in late trading after smashing expectations and delivering a bullish sales forecast. the ceo further stoked excitement by talking about the dawning of a new era. >> the next industrial revolution has begun. countries and companies are partnering with nvidia to shift the $1 trillion installed base of traditional data centers to accelerated computing and to build a new type of data center, ai factories, to produce a new economy, artifici

monday chinese banks will keep their loan primary study for a third straight month after last week's pbocold. cpi readings do out of japan, singapore, and malaysia. nvidia headlining the week's earnings releases. bloomberg intelligence expects the world's most valuable chipmaker to repeat another solid beat thanks to ai demand. chinese ev makers will release results on the heels of tesla's bruising reports. let's bring in our next guest, chief asian economist from hsbc. always great to chat with you. the overlay to all of this is central-bank policy. we are expecting holds across the boards. i wonder, the buildup of data we have had when it comes to the u.s., are you convinced that steady and significant progress is being made when it comes to inflation? frederic: it is not yet clear we are out of the woods with inflation. core inflation is still running very high in the u.s. and some other asian economies. so central bakers -- bankers would like to ease monetary policy. they are worried about keeping it too tight for too long. but the date it does not give the opening yet. in asia we hav

pboc as well as some other state-owned entity. china housing invite minister speaking saying local governments can organize local state-owned enterprises to buy some existing commercial housing at a reasonable price for affordable housing and we will unpack this a little bit. the conversation whether this would be happening and whether a vote on it, whether further conversations around it and how you can, obviously, shore up the property sector in china that has been languishing and struggling recently. they say probably dispose of revitalize stock of land and because of difficulties of real estate enterprises and set up 300 billion relending loan for affordable housing and some sold housing projects under construction face difficulties. we will unpack that for you later. on the back end of a short break, chinese property stocks jumping after the country announces a slew of support measures for the ailing sector and we will bring all of those details and rekilehe adnefor you next. bills are craze has no idea she's sitting on ae go

i think the warranty for broader asia is that the rate continues to rise, we have seen it in the pboc'sg for the yuan which was yesterday. it is feeding back and has undermined the aussie dollar strength we saw yesterday on the back of cpi numbers. so the ripple effects from the continuing to weekend are pretty broad-based. haidi: that e.m. continues to weaken and the dollar continues to strengthen with the fed not in a hurry. i guess it goes to the question of how worried should broader asia agree with the global impact of a fed that is not going to move anywhere towards easing anytime soon. ray: the implications of the fed not easing are profound. but we should remember that up until last week's that s&p global pmi and then early this week, we have had four or five weeks where u.s. economic data had been consistently surprising to the downside. and clear signs of a shift in relative economic performance away from the u.s. in favor of the rest of the world, particularly in europe. we saw the dollar under substantial pressure. we hope for the fed easing as early as q3 starting to ratche

the pboc is expected to be there along with other ministries.ources say they could be discussing expanding this wide list of and developers who -- developers and the code access funding for projects that were previously disqualified, as well . haidi: it is china domestic activity data day as well. what do you expect to see with property investment indicators? minmin: property remains the biggest drag on the economy so we expect investments to extend the in april, although government-led investment could help counter that and already we are starting to see a steady drumbeat of pro-growth signals in recent weeks with city after city announcing a rollback of homebuying caps coupled with the potential meeting this morning to buy back excess housing in the market. of course we will not see the effects of that in the april reading just yet, but we do see pmi data for construction hitting a new high this year in april. that suggests we are feeling the trickle-down effects of last year's trillion yuan bond issuance going to infrastructure investments. t

they were asking about the trump tower meeting, asking about pecker, we understood that the jury the pbocthe premise being given to them by the process, which essentially because todd blanche in his closing spent a lot of time basically undercutting, trying to undercut that meeting and undercut the importance of the national enquirer and saying, well, it's absurd to think that that they care that the trump campaign karatay to monitor thought that this was such an important public and they clearly did. they held this meeting. and it was it's trump and cohen approaching pecker, not pecker approaching them about how can i help them approaching pecker about what can you do for the campaign? and that's why it's relevant that so many sources around this, people who were in those rooms are close to those rooms executing these transactions had these misgivings at the time knew what it was and saw it the way the prosecution ultimately framed it for this jury. do you think do you think there's any room for appeal? do them you're an attorney yourself. do you think? >> i'm the other question is how t