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Sep 25, 2024
09/24
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haslinda: pboc is in a state of urgency. what would be pboc's next move? >> ballinger --they are promising another cut so how much more support can they get. they have raised their participation on the relenting program, that is going to put a positive spin on the confidence but as i said unless households see outstanding projects moving they are not likely to go to their real managers and start looking for a property. they just want the keys to the property. >> we are always talking about fiscal policy. the governments have the money but they are not not been deployed so what do we need to see in terms of the fact that you know we don't want to see more bridges to nowhere, that does not have the same fiscal impulse or growth impulse that we are used to. >> to be fair it is the central government effort to rein in the discipline on the local governments but local government officials are a bit afraid under the scope of the corruption investigation and no one wants to make a decision. i was in china and they are saying our clients are saying infrastructure
haslinda: pboc is in a state of urgency. what would be pboc's next move? >> ballinger --they are promising another cut so how much more support can they get. they have raised their participation on the relenting program, that is going to put a positive spin on the confidence but as i said unless households see outstanding projects moving they are not likely to go to their real managers and start looking for a property. they just want the keys to the property. >> we are always...
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Sep 24, 2024
09/24
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the pboc governor of essentially saying this will unleash a trillion yuan or 142 billion u.s. dollars in liquidity. it also signaled going forward they could have more rrr cuts, more monetary stimulus if the data suggests it is needed. it might be called bazooka, it is very welcome to the market. it's something many market participants have been hoping to boost sentiment. not only for liquidity, but for the stock market. because as you mentioned, there are measures for brokerages and other funds to be able to tap pboc funds to invest in the stock market. it also addresses the mortgage concerns of homeowners who have lost 18 trillion household wealth in the years long property crisis. haslinda: the china indexes more than 3% as we speak. the thing is, when you take a look at the csi 300, it's up about one point 5%, max. i'm not sure if there is still trepidation or investors are actually looking for more. consumptions firm measures, to boost consumptions in china. stephen: i think a good barometer will be coming in the next week or two when the national day holiday happens in c
the pboc governor of essentially saying this will unleash a trillion yuan or 142 billion u.s. dollars in liquidity. it also signaled going forward they could have more rrr cuts, more monetary stimulus if the data suggests it is needed. it might be called bazooka, it is very welcome to the market. it's something many market participants have been hoping to boost sentiment. not only for liquidity, but for the stock market. because as you mentioned, there are measures for brokerages and other...
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Sep 27, 2024
09/24
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we spoke to you briefly after the pboc press conference. is this a pivotal change? you were clear in your answer, yes, this is consequential and changes the story for chinese stocks. what is more important now, is it china or the fed? mark: right now it is china, because the fed pricing will have to change. yields have to rise in the u.s. what china is doing is monumental. for me to jury is not out. we had the decision on tuesday. the coordinated message from every branch of a state directed economy to the highest level is extremely important. who cares if there is a pullback when they come back from the holidays. they are going to win. the stock market has bottomed out. it is under owned around the world and many of these stocks are so cheap. not all chinese indexes are cheap, but many sectors are still cheap. hong kong stocks are still cheap. many of these things are still cheap, and the world will continue to change this trade because the marker that china is put down. absolutely a pivotal moment this week, and i am not too worried about short-term follow-through
we spoke to you briefly after the pboc press conference. is this a pivotal change? you were clear in your answer, yes, this is consequential and changes the story for chinese stocks. what is more important now, is it china or the fed? mark: right now it is china, because the fed pricing will have to change. yields have to rise in the u.s. what china is doing is monumental. for me to jury is not out. we had the decision on tuesday. the coordinated message from every branch of a state directed...
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Sep 23, 2024
09/24
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china has announced plans for a rare briefing by the pboc governor tuesday following the central bank move to cut. for the details and market reaction let's bring in minmin low. what do we know about the measures and what can we expect tomorrow. >> we don't know yet. it is surprising that they will hold this press conference with other officials from the commission and the topic at hand is to look at financial support for the economy and certainly markets are pricing and a lot of expectations that may be announced as soon maybe tomorrow if you look at the 10 year government yield down to a fresh low, suggesting traders may be expecting rate cuts. this comes after we saw the pboc announcing a surprise rate cut by 10 basis points from 1.95% to 1.85% but some are saying do not read too much into this because it could just be a catch up with the reverse repo rate cut in july. the pboc did not move the reverse today and it's not unusual to cut before a long holiday like the golden week next week. they did that back in february as well. the intention is to ensure market liquidity remains. w
china has announced plans for a rare briefing by the pboc governor tuesday following the central bank move to cut. for the details and market reaction let's bring in minmin low. what do we know about the measures and what can we expect tomorrow. >> we don't know yet. it is surprising that they will hold this press conference with other officials from the commission and the topic at hand is to look at financial support for the economy and certainly markets are pricing and a lot of...
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Sep 26, 2024
09/24
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a members of the pboc sangha need to get cash into the hands of the chinese consumer. is that part of the plan in terms of giving money to the poorest in the country? >> stadia begin as the government is going to give direct cash handouts to the extremely poor. there are about 4.70 million of them. we do not know the side of the handout, but it is a departure from the past where we know president xi has been resistant to welfare that chinese officials have said could encourage laziness. this comes with the state of the economy, may be making the government to reconsider this move to provide direct cash handouts. they are supposed to get this out before the start of the golden week holiday next week, typically a time of peak travel and spending, but maybe the extremely poor will not go on a holiday but it can give a boost to the essential items, household appliances, the consumer staples that has been a group of stocks that is one of the worst performing sectors in china so far this year. by the way, it is the 75th anniversary of the founding of p.r.c., so the governmen
a members of the pboc sangha need to get cash into the hands of the chinese consumer. is that part of the plan in terms of giving money to the poorest in the country? >> stadia begin as the government is going to give direct cash handouts to the extremely poor. there are about 4.70 million of them. we do not know the side of the handout, but it is a departure from the past where we know president xi has been resistant to welfare that chinese officials have said could encourage laziness....
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Sep 25, 2024
09/24
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stabilization fund managed pboc, the reputation is on the line.hey've been known to deliver with currency, people are very sure things will happen in the chinese markets. this is filtering through. people realize no turning back. we had an interest rate cut today. basis points shaved off the rates, very positive for all things. tom: pboc not having a press conference. transparency we don't often see. in terms of policy from central bank of china, they've been given a record high for the year and consumer sentiment survey lower than expected. is this bad dater? markets rally. how are you thinking about fed cuts? mark: fair assessment. pricing became stronger, it puts pressure on federal reserve to follow-up and it has been week so it will take a lot, you have to consider that we have an employment report and people are expecting the rate unchanged. if we get a number which is worse than that that will ramp up pressure, could will be that by next week if we have a soft jobs report, fully priced at the next meeting will give you 75 or beyond if the d
stabilization fund managed pboc, the reputation is on the line.hey've been known to deliver with currency, people are very sure things will happen in the chinese markets. this is filtering through. people realize no turning back. we had an interest rate cut today. basis points shaved off the rates, very positive for all things. tom: pboc not having a press conference. transparency we don't often see. in terms of policy from central bank of china, they've been given a record high for the year...
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Sep 16, 2024
09/24
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the pboc moves are not going to help.ou do have a consumption problem and an overleveraged problem. i don't see anything being done to solve that. our view on china is that it looks cheap, it looks like a value trap. no reason to invest in this market until we see clearer signs of recovery. i would like to see an initial move, some green shoots which we are not seeing at the moment. avril: but in anticipation of a potential -- this is a long way from now potentially, but in anticipation of a chinese recovery, what are some of the indicators you would be watching? maybe we stop talking about signs of a deflationary spiral and signs of inflation coming back. sunil: inflation numbers will be important. but also, retail sales and consumption which have been exceptionally weak, that would be an indicator to give confidence. you have seen the retail sales data be volatile. we need to see a consistent trajectory combined with the inflation indicators into positive territory, firmly so and rising. that would send a lot of confide
the pboc moves are not going to help.ou do have a consumption problem and an overleveraged problem. i don't see anything being done to solve that. our view on china is that it looks cheap, it looks like a value trap. no reason to invest in this market until we see clearer signs of recovery. i would like to see an initial move, some green shoots which we are not seeing at the moment. avril: but in anticipation of a potential -- this is a long way from now potentially, but in anticipation of a...
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Sep 27, 2024
09/24
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the pboc following with the promise thismorning cutting the rrr, the amount banks must hold in reservey 50 basis points, effective today after cutting the mlf rate earlier this week. they are followed on by the bureau meeting this week which followed fiscal policy coordination and more support for the housing sector. the leadership doesn't usuallily talk about the economy in the september meetings which markets are interpreting to the level of urge ri. the economists are wondering if it is the chinese draghi moment. they are looking at more industrial profits falling back into contraction in august. the rally too hot to handle. the shanghai stock exchange with slow trading. one taking to x saying the system was overwhelmed and the chinese market is absolutely on fire. analysts see further upside as investors are loading up, but the stock market enthusiasm does need to be matched by the private sector and consumer. there's just one more trading day for the chinese markets before the golden week holiday on monday. in singapore, same sam vadas, singapore business news. >> there will be mo
the pboc following with the promise thismorning cutting the rrr, the amount banks must hold in reservey 50 basis points, effective today after cutting the mlf rate earlier this week. they are followed on by the bureau meeting this week which followed fiscal policy coordination and more support for the housing sector. the leadership doesn't usuallily talk about the economy in the september meetings which markets are interpreting to the level of urge ri. the economists are wondering if it is the...
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Sep 23, 2024
09/24
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to have more stimulus in this economy because of the moves we have seen with further easing by the pboc and announcing perhaps there will be even more measures. two officials will be holding a press conference tomorrow. they are not calling this to announce nothing. there will be some sort of stimulus we will be anticipating. this is what he had to say about the need for stimulus now. >> the pressure is intensifying and the thing i'm looking for is for the government to change their stance and be more expansive because they do have wiggle room. they do have flexibility on interest rates and they do have flexibility with central government budgets. so they can spend more money. i'm looking for a reversal in the policy. in the absence of that, he continues to be tough. >> he says the fed's 50 basis point cut gives the pboc perhaps more wiggle room. >> the other factor of course the property sector. you spoke to him on that topic and the possible impact on commodity demand. absolutely. there's no secret that one of the pillars of past economies has been the property sector. dominic barton
to have more stimulus in this economy because of the moves we have seen with further easing by the pboc and announcing perhaps there will be even more measures. two officials will be holding a press conference tomorrow. they are not calling this to announce nothing. there will be some sort of stimulus we will be anticipating. this is what he had to say about the need for stimulus now. >> the pressure is intensifying and the thing i'm looking for is for the government to change their...
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Sep 24, 2024
09/24
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and the pboc unleashes unprecedented support for the economy including a rate cut and measures to prop up the housing market. now it's political. italian and german leaders square off in the struggle for commerzbank after it becomes the german bank's larger shareholder. and a major escalation between israel and hezbollah. israeli airstrikes killed nearly 500 people across southern lebanon in one of the deadliest days of fighting in 20 years. >> >> let's check in on the markets. trying to put a floor under the pressure that has rippled across the equity markets of china and hammered the consumer and that is the market story of the moment as we came in i on the geopolitics and focus on the middle east. the ftse 100 and the u.k. looking to add 23 points. look at the commodity sector and basic resources. that will tie into the u.k. session and u.k. futures are currently flat getting close to record levels. the nasdaq 100 futures looking to just two points. the focus on the front end when it comes to the treasury given the commentary we have heard from a number of fed officials. goolsby sug
and the pboc unleashes unprecedented support for the economy including a rate cut and measures to prop up the housing market. now it's political. italian and german leaders square off in the struggle for commerzbank after it becomes the german bank's larger shareholder. and a major escalation between israel and hezbollah. israeli airstrikes killed nearly 500 people across southern lebanon in one of the deadliest days of fighting in 20 years. >> >> let's check in on the markets....
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Sep 20, 2024
09/24
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it is what the fx market is feeding through to the pboc, nothing special.ower fixing is because of the spot dropping. people talk about after the fed got, now a lot of exporters are finally coming back out, but what china wants is a stable currency. they do not want fast appreciation or appreciation, so state banks are coming out to stabilize and buying dollars from here. from here, weaker dollar, lower dollar china but at a gradual pace as well. haslinda: does it pave the way for further easing in china? >> i think so and that is one of the reasons why they let it slip gradually. if you have about of weakness as a result of let's say the impact of the interest rate market, it is a little bit of a buffer. so they have created themselves above her. the fed is help them create a buffer. the overall risk on environment is help them create a buffer, and not to mention that all of this especially with that yuan strengthening, this is such a good positive environment as well for other currencies in the region. because we have to remember just how dependent a lot
it is what the fx market is feeding through to the pboc, nothing special.ower fixing is because of the spot dropping. people talk about after the fed got, now a lot of exporters are finally coming back out, but what china wants is a stable currency. they do not want fast appreciation or appreciation, so state banks are coming out to stabilize and buying dollars from here. from here, weaker dollar, lower dollar china but at a gradual pace as well. haslinda: does it pave the way for further...
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Sep 30, 2024
09/24
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we have the pboc cutting rates. the head of the policy committee said that is what they were going to do and then you see housing market changes on who can buy a house but you have not seen the ministry of finance and that will be key. so far we see a lot of policy changes. that may lead to rebound. may slow down the flow. how much money does the government spend? ministry of finance has been absent so fiscal spending will step up. it will be key coming out of a holiday, people considering different things. there may be people holding back from exuberance and euphoria. haslinda: thank you for that. thank you. still ahead our interview with shane elliott discussing business strategy but first rising tensions and the killing of hezbollah leader. keep it here with us, this is bloomberg. ♪ haslinda: an israeli attack hit an apartment building in beirut in the heart of the lebanese capital. israel has been challenging iran and for more let's bring in new mono in dubai. talk to us talk to us about the complications. >> ma
we have the pboc cutting rates. the head of the policy committee said that is what they were going to do and then you see housing market changes on who can buy a house but you have not seen the ministry of finance and that will be key. so far we see a lot of policy changes. that may lead to rebound. may slow down the flow. how much money does the government spend? ministry of finance has been absent so fiscal spending will step up. it will be key coming out of a holiday, people considering...
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Sep 11, 2024
09/24
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typically, that's a good benchmark for how the pboc is reading the market.set it at 200 pips below, which is pretty aggressive. if you think there was a risk that there would be more tariffs in the near term, they probably will not have done that. the central bank in china will moderate gains in the yuan. the moderate and the currency has been moving in favor of the japanese. and they probably will allow it to continue. overall, the dollar is a bit softer, most currencies are benefiting, and that isn't likely to change in the near term. avril: we have the u.s. cpi print, and most think that is going to come near the fed's target. there are even downside risks. you think about how brent is trading. do you think the federal reserve is going to seize the chance to open the door to bigger room cuts? markets: bloomberg is running a story that there are traders looking for cuts in the near term. we haven't even had one yet. clearly it will be on the table. they obviously have to discuss it, whether it's 25 or 50 basis points. they might not be that influence by on
typically, that's a good benchmark for how the pboc is reading the market.set it at 200 pips below, which is pretty aggressive. if you think there was a risk that there would be more tariffs in the near term, they probably will not have done that. the central bank in china will moderate gains in the yuan. the moderate and the currency has been moving in favor of the japanese. and they probably will allow it to continue. overall, the dollar is a bit softer, most currencies are benefiting, and...
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Sep 26, 2024
09/24
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>> yeah, i mean, we already get a hint of this on tuesday when the pboc governor had said that they were going to inject some capital into the big banks. so i guess today we are getting a lot more details that it could be as much as 1 trillion yuan, coming a majority of from special government bonds. and this is another injection of capital to the banks at a time when the profit margins have been squeezed, at record lows as of end june of 1.5% below the threshold that is deemed necessary for reasonable profits which is 1.8%. it also comes as the banks have time and again been asked to revive the economy with the mortgage rate cut. that alone is estimated to save homeowners 150 billion yuan in interest payments and that is money that is no longer going to the banks and then you have cuts to loan primates is that the pboc says it could be coming and the governor promised that all of these rate cuts will be neutral on banks profit margins. so perhaps this will -- this funding will support that but is nuanced because our bloomberg intelligence analyst, many of these banks actually do not nee
>> yeah, i mean, we already get a hint of this on tuesday when the pboc governor had said that they were going to inject some capital into the big banks. so i guess today we are getting a lot more details that it could be as much as 1 trillion yuan, coming a majority of from special government bonds. and this is another injection of capital to the banks at a time when the profit margins have been squeezed, at record lows as of end june of 1.5% below the threshold that is deemed necessary...
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Sep 2, 2024
09/24
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what we anticipate is, as the fed cuts some of the asian central banks including the pboc , could find more room in the accommodative policies. i think this will continue to provide some -- against a further depreciation of momentum from china. bruce: -- avil: -- jeff: anticipating some of the currencies, they are high use like the peso, these central banks may look at cutting policy rates. but for the ringgit, and the taiwan dollar, these central banks need to be more neutral. this has the scope to do more between now and the end of the year. avil: this is quite closely tied to the ai narrative. jeff: what we are also watching out for is whether the u.s. achieves a soft landing or a hard landing. if there is slight weakness, i think the ai story could continue to be better. especially looking at the last quarter when we saw the announcements from the tech companies. if there is a harder landing from the u.s. and the global economy, i think that could affect currencies. paul: one of the currencies you like is the aussie dollar. i'm wondering what you see happening with the aussie-u.s.
what we anticipate is, as the fed cuts some of the asian central banks including the pboc , could find more room in the accommodative policies. i think this will continue to provide some -- against a further depreciation of momentum from china. bruce: -- avil: -- jeff: anticipating some of the currencies, they are high use like the peso, these central banks may look at cutting policy rates. but for the ringgit, and the taiwan dollar, these central banks need to be more neutral. this has the...
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Sep 16, 2024
09/24
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the pboc governor spoke outwardly about the issues of the threat of deflation and on friday the pboct self came out in a rear statement saying that a big priority going forward for the rest of the year is combating deflation. factory gate deflation has been deflation for 23 consecutive months. tom: 23 straight months of softer prices coming through. stephen engle, thank you for the context around this new and grim data set coming from china and the potential policy response. shanghai has been hit by the biggest iphone -- typhoon in more than seven decades. disrupting holidaymakers at the start of what is a national festival in china. china's financial capital initiated an emergency response on sunday closing bridges, ports and highways. all flights were canceled in the evening. coming up, striking boeing factory workers are ready to hold out for a better contract. we have the details on that industrial action next. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: welcome back "bloomberg daybreak: europe." russia reportedly sharing secret information and technology with iran that could bring it closer to be
the pboc governor spoke outwardly about the issues of the threat of deflation and on friday the pboct self came out in a rear statement saying that a big priority going forward for the rest of the year is combating deflation. factory gate deflation has been deflation for 23 consecutive months. tom: 23 straight months of softer prices coming through. stephen engle, thank you for the context around this new and grim data set coming from china and the potential policy response. shanghai has been...
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Sep 24, 2024
09/24
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the pboc announced a 50-basis point cut and it will cut 20 basis points bringing it to 1.5%.he bank said interest rates on existing mortgages would be reduced by average of 50 basis points. let's dive into the sectorial moves with the names and you think about how important this announcement is. anglo american shares up 6%. rio tinto up 4.5%. this story is vehhaving implications with the luxury stocks in europe. i highlighted household goods this morning. look at the individual stock names. lvmh up 4.5%. kering up as well. analysis suggesting we are getting closer to the bottom of the luxury cycle. so perhaps more upside in some of the names in the window of three-to-six months according to this one analyst. the announcement from china having significant implications in the equity space. looking at hang seng which closed 4%. shanghai closing at similar levels there. to highlight some officials are looking at the announcement from the chinese central bank and suggesting it was not a big bazooka, but a step in the right direction. therefore, let's get a check on the property se
the pboc announced a 50-basis point cut and it will cut 20 basis points bringing it to 1.5%.he bank said interest rates on existing mortgages would be reduced by average of 50 basis points. let's dive into the sectorial moves with the names and you think about how important this announcement is. anglo american shares up 6%. rio tinto up 4.5%. this story is vehhaving implications with the luxury stocks in europe. i highlighted household goods this morning. look at the individual stock names....
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Sep 16, 2024
09/24
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chinese market will open on wednesday and turn to the pboc rate decision on friday.singapore, sam vadas, cnbc business news. >> that's the latest from china. i want to take you to the big theme this week. that's central banks because we are going to hear from the fed, the bank of england and bank of japan and norges bacnk. they are all set to report their policy decisions this week. the fed rate decision and markets are now pricing in a 60% chance of a bumper 50-basis point cut amid concerned concerns amid the labor market. wall street is split with citi and jpmorgan economists backing a 50-basis point move lower. now the bank of england is expected to keep rates on hold when it meets on thursday. although markets see an over30% chance of a cut. the central bank will not release fresh economic forecast this week with those due in the next meeting in november, but we will have fresh information data head of the decision. andrew bailey sounded cautious in jackson hole. in terms of the norges bank, it is set to report on thursday. it is all certain to keep the rates on
chinese market will open on wednesday and turn to the pboc rate decision on friday.singapore, sam vadas, cnbc business news. >> that's the latest from china. i want to take you to the big theme this week. that's central banks because we are going to hear from the fed, the bank of england and bank of japan and norges bacnk. they are all set to report their policy decisions this week. the fed rate decision and markets are now pricing in a 60% chance of a bumper 50-basis point cut amid...
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Sep 24, 2024
09/24
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shares jumping today, after the pboc announced a slate of measures from cutting the amount of cash banks need to keep on hand to reducing lending rates to get consumer spending again but it wasn't just china-based companies on the move. casino stocks, luxury retailers, and commodity names, all of which get a significant portion of revenue overseas, getting a pop, as well was this the all-clear to go all-in on the emerging market? tim, what is your take on this. >> well, china has a lot of structural issues, and this doesn't change them, and, in fact, when you have a debt, call it a cancer of sorts, it really needs to take some time to clear through it they've kind of cut it out it's a dynamic, where if you listen to the pboc, they talked about, this needs to be supports with fiscal policy it's just interesting, when you do, up you know, loans for shar which is what you hear about in emerging markets, you used to hear about this in russia, when they gave away their most valuable companies, they are lending companies to buy stakes in the market. it just seems to me, a lot of what has gone
shares jumping today, after the pboc announced a slate of measures from cutting the amount of cash banks need to keep on hand to reducing lending rates to get consumer spending again but it wasn't just china-based companies on the move. casino stocks, luxury retailers, and commodity names, all of which get a significant portion of revenue overseas, getting a pop, as well was this the all-clear to go all-in on the emerging market? tim, what is your take on this. >> well, china has a lot of...
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Sep 9, 2024
09/24
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producer price index is steep for the 23rd month driven by weakness in the pboc governor was saying theernment needs to pay attention to inflation. china's target is 3% and they've been prioritizing growth. hoping that gdp turns positive. that is looking challenging. tom: fascinating. it's not often you hear from former senior officials. in terms of stimulus it does not seem like it is coming. why? minmin: we have seen a troop feed on demand and supply but they are supposed to hit a growth target of 5% and slightly below that is acceptable. government is shifting toward high quality growth and willing to tolerate smaller growth. many competing priorities right now decoupling from broad consumption, reducing debt and cleaning up financial sector. we are trudging toward 4.8% right now unless there is extremely weak data, then maybe they might consider more aggressive circuit breakers for the economy. tom: indeed. the latest on the data facing the second largest economy. a remarkable story given what unfolded, the pressure on the oil space and a split versus core inputs around iron and cop
producer price index is steep for the 23rd month driven by weakness in the pboc governor was saying theernment needs to pay attention to inflation. china's target is 3% and they've been prioritizing growth. hoping that gdp turns positive. that is looking challenging. tom: fascinating. it's not often you hear from former senior officials. in terms of stimulus it does not seem like it is coming. why? minmin: we have seen a troop feed on demand and supply but they are supposed to hit a growth...
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Sep 13, 2024
09/24
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dollar, we have also been seeing the chinese currency climbing, but even as you watch out for the pboc signals and how it seems they have been letting it move more flexibly and tolerating the strength, wonder at the same time how much longer they will tolerate this. they do not want this unfettered strengthening in the renminbi. a lot of the other asian currencies benefiting from the softer dollar, including on the yen, sitting around 141 against the greenback. i also wanted to recap those boj what your expectations come at the results of a bloomberg survey out about 50 plus boj watchers were polled, it we saw the majority of them expecting a rate hike from the central bank by the end of january. more than half someone coming in december, so what gives you a sense of what is expected from the japanese central bank. next week, no changes expected. zero chance of that seen by most. it is too soon especially after the july rate hike as well as the ensuing market ruptures. tom: the fed decision next week, but also the boj at the end of the week on friday. the latest set of u.s. economic da
dollar, we have also been seeing the chinese currency climbing, but even as you watch out for the pboc signals and how it seems they have been letting it move more flexibly and tolerating the strength, wonder at the same time how much longer they will tolerate this. they do not want this unfettered strengthening in the renminbi. a lot of the other asian currencies benefiting from the softer dollar, including on the yen, sitting around 141 against the greenback. i also wanted to recap those boj...
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Sep 19, 2024
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there's more hope in mainland stocks and the hang seng with the federal reserve cutting, that gives the pbocore room to set the loan prime ra rates. we have to remember a lot of volatility here in asia. you don't see that in one place. we saw it weakening significantly against the stronger dollar after it found its footing, but recovered after the two-day chart because the bank of japan is set to meet tomorrow which is another key data point here in asia. the early weakness for the yen is enough to lift the spirits of the nikkei 225 keep in mind that the japanese jgb bond yields. frank, back to you good morning >> jp, thank you very much. >>> turning our tension back to the u.s. market. s seema shah is with us. >> good morning, frank. >> seema, i want your reaction to the fed cutting 50 basis points some people were surprised and some people forecast it. how do you see the cut and market reaction? yesterday, we closed lower, but now markets are popping a bit. >> frank, it was an historic move in line with what we expect to come from the fed. typi typically, a 50-basis point cut come from the
there's more hope in mainland stocks and the hang seng with the federal reserve cutting, that gives the pbocore room to set the loan prime ra rates. we have to remember a lot of volatility here in asia. you don't see that in one place. we saw it weakening significantly against the stronger dollar after it found its footing, but recovered after the two-day chart because the bank of japan is set to meet tomorrow which is another key data point here in asia. the early weakness for the yen is...
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Sep 19, 2024
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pboc now in the window to cut rates finally after the fed moves and we had that upbeat consumption data, the hang seng index up 2% after the monetary authority had met those rate cuts by half a percentage point. hong kong is benefiting the beleaguered property developers that have been slammed by the high borrowing costs. property index up 3% today, 10 still pointing down for an eighth straight day. tom: we lead up to the boj decision on friday. the fed has opted for an outsize interest rate cut, designed to preserve the strength of the u.s. economy is risks mount to the labor market. speaking after the meeting, chair jay powell said the cut reflects the central banks risk management approach as the aim for that soft landing. >> the federal open market committee decide to reduce the degree of policy restraint by lowering a policy interest rate by .5 percentage points. rod set of indicators suggests conditions or less tight than before the pin naming can between 19. the labor market is not a source of elevated inflationary pressures. i do not think that anyone should look at this and say
pboc now in the window to cut rates finally after the fed moves and we had that upbeat consumption data, the hang seng index up 2% after the monetary authority had met those rate cuts by half a percentage point. hong kong is benefiting the beleaguered property developers that have been slammed by the high borrowing costs. property index up 3% today, 10 still pointing down for an eighth straight day. tom: we lead up to the boj decision on friday. the fed has opted for an outsize interest rate...
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Sep 11, 2024
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if you look at the pboc fixed today, it was stronger than the estimates as well.avy to some, that signals that they are not quite worried about a weakening chinese currency, given the tariff risk in the next few months. as you just alluded to, in terms of the yen, it's really about how the japanese equities are adjusting to that. you can see here, the bleed is really bad on the nikkei and topics today. we did start off the session this bad. but as we came back from the large rake, we sank deeper into negative territory. among the sectors we are keeping a close eye on today are the energy ones, given how brent crude is faring. it's the underperforming sector along with financial related stocks. the korean won's dragging those declines in their u.s. counterpoints. in the absence of key takeaways from the debate for asia investors, what we are actually seeing is that the dominant recurring themes are actually what we've been hearing about so much recently, in terms of the week chinese economy as well as concerns surrounding u.s. economic growth. so this is the pictur
if you look at the pboc fixed today, it was stronger than the estimates as well.avy to some, that signals that they are not quite worried about a weakening chinese currency, given the tariff risk in the next few months. as you just alluded to, in terms of the yen, it's really about how the japanese equities are adjusting to that. you can see here, the bleed is really bad on the nikkei and topics today. we did start off the session this bad. but as we came back from the large rake, we sank...
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Sep 30, 2024
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in china it is different with the stimulus and the biggest moves yet and the pboc wanting to lower mortgage rates at the end of the month for the stimulus. the mainland property stocks in hong kong are the biggest gainer. you see further deeper into bull market territory in the session. that had a knock-on effect for australia. if you know that in siysydney, is driven by iron-ore. it might stimulate the property market in china. this could have a knock-on effect on base metals with copper inchile and peru. something you can track in new york. overall, it was these two stories and drivers really shaping the narrative for asian markets this monday. frank, back to you and good morning. >> jp, thank you very much. we will talk asian equities and japanese equities further on in the show. let's go to europe as they close out the quarter. we have carolin roth with us in london. carolin, good morning. >> reporter: good morning, frank. you said a lot of red arrows on the screen with the european trade. we are roughly two hours in the trading session. take a look at this. ftse 100 is down .50%. simil
in china it is different with the stimulus and the biggest moves yet and the pboc wanting to lower mortgage rates at the end of the month for the stimulus. the mainland property stocks in hong kong are the biggest gainer. you see further deeper into bull market territory in the session. that had a knock-on effect for australia. if you know that in siysydney, is driven by iron-ore. it might stimulate the property market in china. this could have a knock-on effect on base metals with copper...
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Sep 24, 2024
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so within this announcement from the pboc, their version of the s.e.c., as well as one of the other regulatorslk about promoting private equity as well as venture capital. so they're trying to move a super tanker, which has been some of the negative sentiment. this is a very clear end case that they're sick and tired of the stock market going down, and they're doing more to support the real estate sector, which is geared to the low consumer confidence we're seeing in china today. >> peter was saying today he was hoping to give a boost to hong kong stocks that had been sorely lagging. we had seen chinese stocks or the k-web up 15% this month. how much more might there be with a chinese, you know, etf or stock market, where should they go and how much more upside could there be? >> the securities within k-web are discounts of -- they're trading at valuations 2/3 of the u.s. equivalent. so talking about stocks trading at forward pes of an 8 or 9. so simply on a multiple expansion of simply doubling of that, there's always going to be a china discount, but i don't think it's unreasonable to think
so within this announcement from the pboc, their version of the s.e.c., as well as one of the other regulatorslk about promoting private equity as well as venture capital. so they're trying to move a super tanker, which has been some of the negative sentiment. this is a very clear end case that they're sick and tired of the stock market going down, and they're doing more to support the real estate sector, which is geared to the low consumer confidence we're seeing in china today. >> peter...
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Sep 27, 2024
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and you don't fight the pboc the fed, and that seems to be the theme. you have to respect the difference about what people are excited about in the market. jobless claims report, and what we are excited about in the market, a big celebration of growth -- acceleration of growth worldwide. lisa: the excitement can also be paired with worry. if you would like to go there and be existential, the idea that the revised data from the u.s. economy show that it was actually growing more quickly than people previously thought, the fact that you are not necessarily seeing the slowdown in certain aspects of the economy of people are counting on for inflation to come down, are we truly in a disinflationary nirvana or is this different than the new regime and we don't have a finger on where we are going? jonathan: we will try to answer those questions. we will catch up with sebastian page on why he's optimistic about the economy, and we will speak to david malpass, and kristina hooper on the massive rally out of china. stocks are close to all-time highs after posting
and you don't fight the pboc the fed, and that seems to be the theme. you have to respect the difference about what people are excited about in the market. jobless claims report, and what we are excited about in the market, a big celebration of growth -- acceleration of growth worldwide. lisa: the excitement can also be paired with worry. if you would like to go there and be existential, the idea that the revised data from the u.s. economy show that it was actually growing more quickly than...
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Sep 25, 2024
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annmarie: the pboc out with another move today.y of this going to help spur the chinese economy? alvaro: well, we are forecasting 4.9% this year and 4.5% next year. this was before the stimulus. i don't think there will be a huge change in the forecast right now for two reasons. we know that their chinese exports are doing fairly well in terms of manufacturing particular. consumption continues to be subdued in china, so this could help a little bit, but we think really the main ailment of china continues to be high debt, private debts. private debt is about 170% of gdp. it is mostly quasi-, but it is private debt, and on top of this, we know there is a large real estate market, larger than most economies and there is adjustment that will have to continue. the question is whether the measures will be able to help demand or not. it is a question we will see in the next few months, but if you look at historical examples of other countries, when you have a big real estate adjustment, it takes longer than authorities would like. jonatha
annmarie: the pboc out with another move today.y of this going to help spur the chinese economy? alvaro: well, we are forecasting 4.9% this year and 4.5% next year. this was before the stimulus. i don't think there will be a huge change in the forecast right now for two reasons. we know that their chinese exports are doing fairly well in terms of manufacturing particular. consumption continues to be subdued in china, so this could help a little bit, but we think really the main ailment of china...
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Sep 2, 2024
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a lot of people are expecting more rate cuts to come from the pboc.. so that kind of relieve some pressure off the currency which gives china some room to cut rates as well. tom: from the u.s. some respite, from the federal reserve possibly unlikely on the trade front. whoever wins in november will be thinking what are the expectations around the external environment and the challenges posed by china? justina: it's hard to tell how that could turn around for the better for china. it's not just u.s. trade policy but also the fact general global demand in europe and the u.s. is supposed to be not as strong as it has been in the past few years. if you think about the fact the external support is weakening that really turns the attention to the chinese consumer here which has been a weak point in the chinese economy recently and that's why people are wondering if we are dennis e policies that are more directly focused on that front. tom: 60% of consumer average wealth is enacted to the real estate sector. just briefly what are you looking for in the weeks
a lot of people are expecting more rate cuts to come from the pboc.. so that kind of relieve some pressure off the currency which gives china some room to cut rates as well. tom: from the u.s. some respite, from the federal reserve possibly unlikely on the trade front. whoever wins in november will be thinking what are the expectations around the external environment and the challenges posed by china? justina: it's hard to tell how that could turn around for the better for china. it's not just...
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Sep 6, 2024
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as for china, jim, i don't know if you saw the wire story today about a former pboc official saying probablyhe most -- in the most stark terms how much china needs to battle deflation. >> look, deflation, as we know from the '20s and germany, leads to revolution. deflation is a curse, and i think people in our country only hear about inflation, but deflation means, don't buy, don't buy, don't buy, let it come down. it's the end of commerce, deflation, and i think there's a perception that you have to have deflation to get things right. now, we have seen some countries do that to beat hyperinflation. chile. >> yep. >> during pinochet's regime. not really liked. but i think we have to state that china is, again, not worthy of investment. there's a battle growing right now on china about msci, henry fernandez, a top executive, saying, you know, fighting to try to figure out what should be the percentage in these big indexes of china. it should be much lower because we see when you do a block trade or pdd. this whole temu i/shein. they're dollar tree and dollar general for china. if you put thes
as for china, jim, i don't know if you saw the wire story today about a former pboc official saying probablyhe most -- in the most stark terms how much china needs to battle deflation. >> look, deflation, as we know from the '20s and germany, leads to revolution. deflation is a curse, and i think people in our country only hear about inflation, but deflation means, don't buy, don't buy, don't buy, let it come down. it's the end of commerce, deflation, and i think there's a perception that...
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Sep 27, 2024
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you saw the pboc act and now people are waiting for the trifecta with the fiscal stimulus that is yet put a floor in terms of the stock market which we know china is massively underperformed. there is value opportunities here for china. this is not an overnight flip the switch, if you will, on the economic basis. i want to put that out there that we have nominal growth which is slowing down and especially when they look at real growth which has been an issue for china in particular when you come to next year. you look at the export segments that have done well, but the base effects start to be tricky into next year. i believe there is a bit of panic here and more needed and concerted effort by the chinese authorities that you haven't seen for a long time which is giving impetus to the market at the moment. >> you need to see it in the underlining fundamentals of the entire country. you need to see some of the actions, that's the point. conrad, listening to tepper yesterday, reminded me of new year's. the sun's moving, not the sun moving, we're actually moving. he did that yesterday. h
you saw the pboc act and now people are waiting for the trifecta with the fiscal stimulus that is yet put a floor in terms of the stock market which we know china is massively underperformed. there is value opportunities here for china. this is not an overnight flip the switch, if you will, on the economic basis. i want to put that out there that we have nominal growth which is slowing down and especially when they look at real growth which has been an issue for china in particular when you...
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Sep 16, 2024
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the pboc has indicated there's more monetary easing ahead. oldman ,citi and morgan stanley have downgraded their forecast for china this year. boeing's credit is at risk of being cut to junk by moody's. on friday the ratings agency placed the plane maker on review for a downgrade. boeing has been bleeding cash after paring back outlet following that near catastrophic air alaska event. moody's announcement comes as workers strike further and that threatens production cash flow. jonathan: more and about 30 minutes time. betting big on big rate cuts. >> as we see more loose confidential conditions that's got to be helpful for equities broadly. jonathan: that conversation around the corner. good morning. ♪ [introspective music] recipes. recipes written by hand and lost to time. are now being analyzed and restored using the power of dell ai. ♪ so, what are you thinking? i'm thinking... (speaking to self) about our honeymoon. what about africa? safari? hot air balloon ride? swim with elephants? wait, can we afford a safari? great question. like eve
the pboc has indicated there's more monetary easing ahead. oldman ,citi and morgan stanley have downgraded their forecast for china this year. boeing's credit is at risk of being cut to junk by moody's. on friday the ratings agency placed the plane maker on review for a downgrade. boeing has been bleeding cash after paring back outlet following that near catastrophic air alaska event. moody's announcement comes as workers strike further and that threatens production cash flow. jonathan: more...