with the romney camp it still hasn't moved into pennsylvania or michigan yet in a lot of ways. a state that most republicans think they will win at the end of the day is more of a battleground state than pennsylvania or michigan, and that should tell you all you need to know about who is favorite right now when it comes to electoral map. >> mark murray, see you tomorrow. thank you. just as in previous presidential elections, it may come down to florida. there are no post-convention florida polls as of yet. before the conventions president obama had a slim lead there. the president was trying to build on that lead during his two-day swing in florida over the weekend, and he took dead aim at the romney/ryan plan pour medicare citing a new study by a harvard professor. >> let them either buy current medicare or to have a private plan. a lot like medicare advantage today. >> that didn't drive down prices governor. >> it sure did. >> that study was conducted by harvard professor cutler. thank you for joining us, professor. >> pleasure to be with you. >> you conducted the study for t

just in the last couple days analysts have moved almost all of the battleground states like pennsylvania or michigan likely democratic states. >> down in wisconsin as well? >> absolutely. weep saw larry sabato, just moved four u.s. senate races from leans republican to toss-up. these are states like north dakota. i think there is an impact. i think it's at the presidential level and -- >> why is this comment sticking out more than nir othany other? i think it's sticking out because the obama campaign has worked to make sure what kind of economy romney believes in, how he made his money, what his model was, how he's hurt a bunch of workers and has never done anything for the middle class. the timing of it matched up with the way the campaign has put him out in front of the country. you couldn't write a better script for the obama team. >> you'd be hard pressed. i think there's a reason for it. when a candidate fits his stereotype, then all of the efforts he makes to undo it just don't work. and then i think there is a second component and that is that he selected as his running mate paul ryan. paul r

will they flex muscles in pennsylvania or michigan? romney hasn't spent money in either state and recently ads pull the down in pennsylvania. the romney campaign is quietly talking about how they can win without ohio but need 20 figure out how to expand the map, but they also like wisconsin. so i'm going to go to the map, and i'm going to deal with this question very quickly about how they go about winning without ohio. very nervous about ohio. so let's go to the map and i can show you. if the president has ohio then you see he's only 15 short of his magic number. but what the romney campaign hopes to do, replace ohio with wisconsin. so there you go. by the way, watch these numbers up here. where they change. then they think they can add north carolina and florida. and after that, 245. the question is, where do they go from there? they like their pross next iowa. puts them there, and in colorado, and they're still 10 short, and that makes, if you believe the wisconsin-ohio flip, that makes new hampshire, virginia and nevada, maybe the l

he's not buying time in wisconsin, pennsylvania or michigan. he's not expanded the map. the pressure on romney leading up to that first debate has only grown. today's disappointing jobs report will be the backdrop as the president and mitt romney both stump in iowa and new hampshire today. they will miss each other. i think they will be flying next to each other going east and west and those bad unemployment reports have been a constant, but romney continues to rely on outside events. is that enough to change the status quo? let's turn to those disappointing august jobs numbers. just 96,000 jobs added. the the unemployment rate is do but only because so many people stopped looking for work. mark zandy, a wide gap between what adp thought and what the bureau of labor statistics came out with. what happened? >> these numbers are based on surveys. surveys are incomplete. a lot of different things going on in the data. 100,000 jobs, that's a dispoint appointment. my expectation was between 125 and 150. the the biggest miss though i think in the data and the expectations was

pennsylvania, michigan, florida, or virginia? wer many 60 seconds. >>> before the break i asked you if you move the answer to this question. which of these swing states has the largest mof muslim voters? is it pennsylvania, michigan, florida, or virginia? well, if you are playing along at home, the aswer is pennsylvania. now, new york and california have the highest numbers overall, but they are not considered swing states. >>> on tuesday it will be two weeks since protests against an anti-islam film made in the u.s. began, but the outrage and in some instances violence is not just about insulting the prophet muhammad. earlier i spoke to "new york times" columnist nick krzysztof. he wrote behind the passion behind the protest in his column m "new york times" called exploiting the prophet. >> i think there are a few things going on here, and one is in a sense television can fashion few the degree of protest out there. you know, in libya, for example, there is a pretty small mof people who are ptesting against the video, and afterwa

pennsylvania, michigan, florida, or virginia? wer many 60 seconds. >>> before the break i asked you if you move the answer to this question. which of these swing states has the largest mof muslim voters? is it pennsylvania, michigan, florida, or virginia? well, if you are playing along at home, the answer is pennsylvania. now, new york and california have the highest numbers overall, but they are not considered swing states. >>> on tuesday it will be two weeks since protests against an anti-islam film made in the u.s. began, but the outrage and in some instances violence is not just about insulting the prophet muhammad. earlier i spoke to "new york times" columnist nick krzysztof. he wrote behind the passion behind the protest in his column m "new york times" called exploiting the prophet. >> i think there are a few things going on here, and one is in a sense television can fashion few the degree of protest out there. you know, in libya, for example, there is a pretty small mof people who are protesting against the video, and afte

. >> what does it say to you that the romney campaign isn't spending money in pennsylvania or michigann super pacs, not the romney campaign, but republican super pacs were advertising in pennsylvania and michigan some in the spring and summer essentially trying to see if they can move the numbers. the question, does it go back in? when you have the conventions, they let the dust settle and poll again and see if they can move the numbers. michigan especially. mitt romney was born there. pennsylvania's a very tough state for republicans. michigan, some states show it close. the fact no republicans are advertising right there tells you quite a bit that at the moment it's not as competitive. i would expect to see one more attempt at michigan. >> thanks very much. in the next hour we'll hear from the former president bill clinton speaking in miami. we'll have live coverage in "the situation room." >>> is there a spoiler lurking in this presidential race? at least in a few state sns we're taking a closer look at the role that the libertarian presidential candidate, gary johnson, just might p

are not sure we can win ohio, and the auto bailout is a part of it. >> if you don't put michigan or pennsylvania in play, it's there. but it's exceedingly narrow. >> rose: i thought they had already said michigan was over. >> well, some of them have, in fact. and pennsylvania too. but if you take ohio off. >> i'm talking about they being political experts. >> even people in governor romney's campaign have suggested that. if you take those three off, you're leaving yourself no margin of error. you basically have to win virginia, colorado, nevada, a whole bunch of states that are right now not particularly in governor romney's pocket. >> rose: so obama could win the electoral college and lose the popular vote? >> could but i doubt it. >> rose: so what's the weakness of them beyond the economy? i mean what is it that he's vul never-- vulnerable on. >> in terms of electorate. >> rose: yeah. >> i think on the merits, he will have trouble making the case that he can work with republicans to get things done. and they'll almost certainly be a republican controlled house. and lots of republican senators.

they're not placing ads in michigan, wisconsin, or pennsylvania. they have pulled their ads from michigan. romney is trailing in michigan by as much as seven points there. the pro romney pac money has dropped out of pennsylvania where romney is also behind in the polls. the romney campaign and the pacs together, of course, have more money than god and mick jagger combined, so they could still decide to spend money wherever, whenever. this almost have infinite resources in terms of ad dollars in this campaign season. unless something changes in their strategy, it looks like wisconsin and michigan and pennsylvania are out and so the 2012 election is down to these eight states. this is a very narrow playing field. and so the specifics of what happens in these few states, the technical aspects of how voting is going to go in these eight states becomes something of national importance. and so it's of national importance that we got news today out of ohio where republicans tried to cut the final three days of early voting before the election. you know tha

he needs ohio or i needs to find a way in some combination of wisconsin, iowa, michigan or pennsylvania. >> before i let you go, jeff, jump in here as well. paul ryan has spoken out on that incredible missed call at the end of the packers/seahawks game. the nfl is saying they stand by the call, at least roger goodell is under a lot of pressure. this is paul ryan in cincinnati. >> going to start off on something that was really troubling that occurred last night. did you guys watch that packer game last night? i mean, give me a break. it is time to get the real refs -- >> he went on to make a point, critical of president obama. but let's stick to football for a second. jeff, you know, you and chris cizilla, this is what's got everybody talking for good reason. enough already. >> this is a matter maybe for the united nations security council. jennings had his human rights violated. for the nfl to stand up and say the call should stand, we have eyes. it's like i don't want to equate this to ahmadinejad saying in front of the u.n. saying iran's nuclear intentions are peaceful but there's a

the list notably did not include wisconsin, michigan or pennsylvania. but update.u are now getting added back to the list. in addition to the eight states i named, the romney campaign says it will also carpet bomb wisconsin, home of paul ryan. now we have a playing field of nine states with wisconsin included. nine states we define as the playing field. presidential races are always fought this way in a few states. right now this year it appears to be nine states. but in most of these nine states officials have acted to try to make voting harder. passing laws that require you how documentation you never had to show to vote before. they have also tried to purge voter rules and tried to cut early voting and make it harder to register. in five of the nine states where the election will be decided, in a majority the top elections official is a republican. in those states all those stories we have been covering about republicans changing the rules about who can vote and when, all those stories are not just important in those states, they are clearly of national importan

campaign, mark, is dropping a huge ad buy out there, 15 states and interestingly, not michigan, wisconsin or pennsylvania. what do you glean from that? >> well, the wisconsin thing is very surprising. they say they will play there. they say in addition, they will eventually play in michigan and pennsylvania. given how much money they have, i'm surprised because the symbolism of not including wisconsin is pretty stark and can have a deleterious effect on their ability to continue the momentum they got there after congressman ryan was picked. you know, if you are going to vote for the president, you got to believe one or two things. you got to either believe that a continuation of the policies he's currently pursuing will lead to the economy finally turning around, jump-starting it and producing jobs, or that he's going to change course and work with republicans in some way where the alchemy of that will produce new jobs. i don't think he's made a compelling case on either of those points. he was much more and has been much more in his rhetoric towards the former, towards saying i'm just going to continue

analysts have moved almost all of the battle ground states to leans democratic or likely democratic state like pennsylvania and michigan saw the good predictor of races just moved four u.s. senate races from leans republican to toss ups. these are in states like north dakota. i think there is an impact. i think it's at the presidential level and down. there is a reason for it. >> why is this comment sticking out more than any other? i think because the obama team made a real effort to make sure what kind of economy romney believes in. what he did and how he made his money and what his model was and how it hurt workers and never does anything for the middle class and then this comes up. the timing matched up with the way the obama campaign put him out in front of the country. i think you couldn't write a better script for the obama team. >> you would be hard pressed and there is a reason for it. when a candidate fits his negative stereotype and locks in that all of the efforts he makes to undo it just don't work. i think there is a second component and that is that he is selecting as his running mate, paul ryan. likeabl

michigan and pennsylvania. that had a lot of tails wagging that maybe they had plans to abandon michigan, his native state, or wisconsin, paul ryan's native state. the romney campaign today saying no. that's going to be plenty of that. we will fight for wisconsin and for michigan. we expect to contest them heavily. the polls are essentially tied and joe biden said he's going to go to wisconsin. that's clearly a sign that the obama campaign thinks they need to defend it. >> arthel: the gloves are coming off for sure. carl cameron, thank you very much. >> rick: president obama also hitting the campaign trail hard today, kicking off the two-day bus tour through florida over the weekend. the president holding two events told in a state he won back in 08, one of the biggest electoral prizes. ed henry traveling with the president live in kissimmee, florida. hi, ed. >> rick: good to see you. you're right, a big prize, 29 electoral vote. the president had it last time. mitt romney had his convention in tampa and so it's interesting that as carl is talking about how they're shadowing and bracketing one another to the same state

some people think michigan or pennsylvania but not yet. >> steve: karl rove talked about the 3, two,da florida or ohio. the bottom gray column win any one and mitt romney is president. do you buy karl's theory. >> as a theory that would work. virginia is tight as a tick . ohio is slightly leaning obama and pennsylvania and michigan and they are likely to go to obama. >> steve: it looked like mitt romney wound up with a bounce. and there is a brand new washington poll show that the president is losing with women. >> that would be critical if that is born out f. that is born out, that would be revealing. his strength is with women. 133 percentage points is what he won the women by in 2008. men tied between obama and mccain. and the entire strategy for obama in 2012 is women and hispanics. that's what you saw last night. >> steve: according to the poll, i think romney went up five or six points in likeability with women and mr. obama has gone down 6 or seven. >> yeah. it makes sense. you can't have a convention like the republicans had in tampa without having an affect on public opinion

or five points. i believe he would carry florida, ohio virginia, nevada. pennsylvania -- >> oh come on. >> pennsylvania, and i believe he would be competitive in michigan. >> you know you really have to be crazy for hannity to go come on. this is now being called pole trutherism. and i love what our own michael shure started. he started a hashtag called dick morris predictions. no one will even notice that the nfl is even using replacement reps. he is already catching on fire. i love it. another way that they go here with the counterattacks is mitt romney doing an on-air ad. when you see the actual candidate in the ad, you know he is in a little bit of trouble. why? because they don't normally go in that direction. he is trying to do a personal appeal. here is mitt romney trying. >> romney: president obama and i both care about poor and middle class families, the difference is my policies will make things better for them. we shouldn't measure compassion by how many people are on welfare. we should measure compassion by how many people are able to get off of welfare and get a better job. >> cenk: problem number 2 if you have to start your ad by talking abou

or more on car insurance. >>> in pennsylvania 34,000 jobs, in florida 35,000, in ohio 150,000 jobs and in the great state of michigan211,000 good-paying american jobs. all across america manufacturing is back and autos are back. why? you know what i'm saying. usa, usa! >> usa! >> oh, my god. it was a mix of oprah on you get a car day, howard dean circa 2004 and a little unhinged but i kind of loved it. the dnc crowd ate up former michigan governor-general fehr granholm's manic speech last night on how president obama saved the auto industry and all the jobs associated with it. if we can muster up a quarter of that energy in the spin cycle, we're in for an exciting time today. >> that was an excellent oprah impression. >> thank you, i learned from jennifer. i was watching on c-span, as i do, and absolutely right. the crowd totally ate it up. that does not mean it wasn't weird. it was weird. she kind of reminded me of like a late night infomercial pitchman, you know? are you selling me a sham woman or slap chop? it was so strange. i don't know. >> it was a lot. we were all e-mailing about it like what is going on righ

michigan from now until election day. erin? >>> thanks for watching. >>> tonight, win big or go home. >> we're going to win pennsylvania.take the white house. thank you so very much. thank you. >> we will win this election, finish what we started and remind the world why the united states is the greatest nation on earth. >> the great debate five days away. why romney has to win and why obama can't afford to lose. i'll talk to my political a-team. also, bibi and the bomb. >> a red line should be drawn right here. >> after dropping this on the u.n. yesterday, he talks to obama and romney today. what israel's line in the sand would mean for all of us. plus, have you seen chelsea lately?

pennsylvania and michigan. perhaps the romney campaign conceding those if you look at where they're spending money or not. a cnn/opinion research poll shows obama leading romney by eight points in michigan. also in wisconsin, a state that obviously mitt romney had hoped to pick off with the choice of paul ryan. in just one month, the race has gone from a three-point margin to a 14-point lead for president obama. 54-40, that's according to this marquette university poll. meanwhile, in a new pew research poll, president obama is up by eight points nationally among likely voters. and a "usa today"/gallup poll, more than half of independent voters, mitt romney's hidden camera comments did not make a difference at all. 29% say they're less likely to vote for romney because of what they heard. 15% say they are more likely to vote for romney because of the message on those tapes. katty, what's your take on all this? >> i guess the only thing that might reassure the romney campaign is, as joe said earlier, we are still -- well, i guess where joe is, it's probably like 100 days out from the campaign because he's s

michigan from now until election day. erin? >>> thanks for watching. >>> tonight, win big or go home. >> we're going to win pennsylvania. we're going to take the white house. thank you so very much. thank you. >> we will win this election, finish what we started and remind the world why the united states is the greatest nation on earth. >> the great debate five days away. why romney has to win and why obama can't afford to lose. i'll talk to my political a-team. also, bibi and the bomb. >> a red line should be drawn right here. >> after dropping this on the u.n. yesterday, he talks to obama and romney today. what israel's line in the sand would mean for all of us. plus, have you seen chelsea lately? >> nobody knows what the hell they're getting into when they're running for president. >> one of my favorites guests is back. >> i'm single, yes. >> if men are watching this -- >> yeah, i'm available. you know, just call me maybe. >> funny, feisty as ever, with a new look for her talk show. this is "piers morgan tonight." >>> good evening. the big story, the great debate. in just five days the event that could change the rac

michigan. north carolina, believe it or not. a poll out there has the president up four points. ohio, the president with a five-point lead. pennsylvaniashows two points separating president barack obama and mitt romney. counter conventional numbers there as well. a distinguished senior fellow at demoos. kelly wallace is right next to me here. very cozy. and "the new york times," nicholas --. got it mostly right. the battle ground presentation there. does it feel like they are showing either mitt romney overperforming or president obama overperforming. but there seems to be a general trent that the president looks stronger in battleground than national numbers. >> finally voters are tuning in and pay attention. but almost all these polls are margin of error. >> sure. you see the solidifying of position and the tiny sliver of voters starting to put the markers down. half o the voters have already voted. they haven't voted, but they can. 25 states already you can vote in some form, in person, early, absentee. the estimate now is 40% of folks are going to vote early. it's too bad you can't say i'm voting earlying don't show me more ticket

or five points. i believe he would carry florida, ohio, virginia. i believe he would carry nevada. i believe he would carry pennsylvania. >> sean: oh, come on. >> pennsylvania. and competitive in michigan. i saw a group in pennsylvania by a group i've hired in the past, two points behind, and rasmussen has him five points behind, four points. people need to understand that the polling this year is the worst it's ever been, because this is the first election where if i tell you who's going to vote i can tell you how they're going to vote. you tell me that you're black or latino or a college kid or a single mother, i'll tell you how you're going to vote. if you tell me you're over 65, you're a man or married white woman, i'll tell you how you'll vote and i'll be right 2-3 times. therefore it's who's going to vote. polling is say how you're going to vote, but it's very bad at saying who's going to vote. the models these folks are crazy. they assume a democratic edge of six or seven points. i'm assuming a three-point democratic edge, and even that is very likely an overstatement. i went through every swing state poll in august and in september of the top super pacs in the country and looke