peter berezin said that a new trump residency would introduce more dramatic tariffs and the stock marketally and he was right. and now he predicts we are far from the bottom saying that the s&p 500 could drop another 18%. for more on what he has to say let us bring him him -- bring him in. thank you for speaking with us. your forecast was for the s&p 500 to fall so 4450 by year end. is that your base case or worst case scenario? or are you changing that up? peter: base case and i am not changing it because what has transpired are very not -- very much in line with expectations. 4450 is not that dire. to get to that all the s&p 500 needs to do is trade down to a forward multiple of 18 and for earnings estimates declined decline by 10 percentage points. 18 is not that low. the average ratio between 2015 and 2019, which did not include a recession and in compost -- and had much of trump's first turn was -- a typical is closer to 20%. i might be a little bit too bullish. scarlet: do you think we are going to get there at the end of the earnings season for en route to that when it gets to tho