let's bring in peter boockvar. cnbc contributor peter, at the top of the hour, the top of the show, we spoke with vance howard. he expressed that concern that the fed is going to be the one, the entity that puts us into recession. first of all, are we in recession right now? second, if we are not in one, will the fed put us there? >> well, i think at best, the u.s. economy is flat lining. if we see modest growth in the third quarter. if you look at where third quarter gdp ends up relative to the fourth quarter of 2021, you problably see no growth will the fed put us in recession? they will when they tighten at the most aggressive pace in 40 years in response to the highest inflation in 40 years. it is impossible to avoid recession in the economic downturn it is the question to what degree and to what degree of a slowdown will inflation make them happy >> peter, let's interrupt you quickly. we are showing the arrival of princess kate. the princess of wales, along with the queen consort camilla, along with the three c

very backwards looking, but the number does matter helping us now to make sense of all of it is peter boockvar, cnbc contributor, and the jobless claims number, peter, came out at 190. 190,000. i'm not sure i can remember in 20 years it being below 200,000. you sent a note out, i e-mailed you back the number seems weird, because you're only going to get a jobless claims number if people are looking for work and are unable to find it. it just feels -- have we reached a maximum productivity point in the u.s. economy, because people are -- millions are just out of the workforce, maybe forever >> well, i think that's the case, that we've seen, at best, flat gdp through the first three quarters of this year. at the same time, we still have pretty good hiring i think that the jobless claims figure is amazing in the face of the stories that we hear about companies at least trimming their workforce or limiting their hiring but other parts of the economy, where employers are holding on tight to their employees i mean, we've had the last couple of years where employers were desperate for workers and i t

market, the nasdaq is notching its longest losing streak since late 2016 for more let's brick in peter boockvarinvestment officer. he's also a cnbc contributor peter, good morning to you why would you say tech is underperforming in recent weeks? >> good morning, seema i think it has to do with the reaction sell racing in interest rates, both the short end of the yield curve and the longer end we've seen a pretty tight relationship over the past couple of years, at least late beginning last year with the rising rates and the markets taking more of a finer tooth comb through tech because of the higher valuations, making it more sensitive. >> there seems to be this inverse relationship between growth stocks and yields is that the playbook going forward? if yields rise faster than expected, you have to be a bit more cautious about growing sectors like tech? >> i think that helps to explain the selling up until recently, but i think now investors are now beginning to question, okay, what's the slowdown in economic activity going to have on these tech companies because we're realizing tech is not imm

joining us now, rubilo faruqi, and peter boockvar, cnbc contributor. do you agree with what some of these business leaders are saying in that being as aggressive as it is, the fed is courting a recession and maybe a serious one? >> the fed -- good afternoon the fed is in a tough spot right now. you are seeing slowing momentum in the economy, but inflation is too high, and the message is really on inflation and inflation expectations so what we saw in the cpi data, we didn't really see any -- we saw an improvement on the headline, but we didn't see knan improvement on the core februarys. what we're seeing on rent inflation, it really doesn't leave the fed with a lot of choices, especially coming against the backe drop of a labor market that remains extremely strong and wage growth that is elevated >> should we be surprised, peter, your broad thoughts in a moment, but should we be surprised that individuals who make a living investing and who have made a very nice living investing in a low interest rate environment, including investing in real estate, wo

. >>> joining us on the news line, peter boockvar how much of of this action to you feels material versusical holiday friday end of summer kind of trading environment? >> well, i think because the market is closed on monday, it's going to prevent u.s. investors to react to the nord stream news so europe can wake up monday morning and natural gas prices can be up sharply but we're not going to be able to respond to it here until tuesday so i think that is helping to exaggerate the response to it sunday the russians can change their minds and gas prices would not rise but again, i think the lack of being able to trade on monday is a factor in this late-day selloff. >> right how are you feeling overall with these tests, the 50% retracement up and 50% retracement down? some of the charts look extremely clean and some people wonder can it be that simple. >> i think we saw a bear market rally. i think the challenges for the market is, yes, we have to deal with the economic implications of a sharp rise in interest rates and what that's going to mean for earnings in the back half of the year but

because of the moves we have seen describe what people have called pretty violent moves including peter boockvar and his research what we are seeing in my opinion is the opening chapter of capitulation it's not going to end today, although i do think the extremes i'm seeing, 4.26 in twos 3.82 in 10s. i would think if i was in the pits these days i would be looking to fade those, not in the grand scheme of things but at least for today the problem is that we have gone from tina to a new tina. there is no alternative, believe me, stocks aren't everybody's first choice anymore but there still is no alternative to the u.s ultimately, what we are seeing is that global central bank policies really for the last 20 years to save us from pain, to rip off the band-aid slowly, it all came home to roost manipulation has a certain runway and we have come to the end of that runway foreign exchange is the battlefield, and as the pound deteriorates and you put tax cuts, which makes sense because there's an energy crisis around the globe that will outsurvive all of this and continue to give us pain. putting mone