. >> peter hart who has been around as a democratic pollster.o they agree this is one-sided fault line right now that's going in one direction? >> both of them use the same phrase, chris, when they looked at these numbers. they said jaw dropping. peter hart said in his 30, 40 years of polling, you only get this about four or five times in a lifetime. a poll that is so resounding, that's so -- moves in such a quick and fast way as these numbers did, that it was surprising to him. but they both offer a warning here. it's not a seesaw for the democrats in this poll. it is a basically big lead rock for the republicans. but it is not all transferring to the democrats. there is some. they're getting boosted a little bit on that generic ballot. but what you really have here is a public who is angry and fed up. they clearly believe the republicans are driving the country off a cliff right now with the shutdown hurting the economy. they feel terrible about the direction of the country. but peter hart would caution the democrats shouldn't be jumping up an

and my friend, peter hart, dates back to mid '60s. when peter hart said this is one of the five or six most consequent opals i've done in my career in terms of how quickly attitudes have changed, then he talks about what has been like? the tet offensive in 1968. the release, the nixon tapes in 1973. when peter starts comparing, like this is the sixth survey in micro since the mid '60s what we've seen data changes quickly, you've dropped the center of public opinion bomb that has blown up kind of a normal world where we see modest changes. when you do something like that you don't get to understand it. it takes months to settle down. when you blow everything up it doesn't reassemble in the same place but it shifts subtly. that's going to take three to six months. so when i going to renew the enduring consequence of this because everyone has to write and to be sunday talks, who won, lost. this is nonsense. this will take months to figure out its happen and the consequence. the third thing is, despite every data using a dozen republicans

. >> peter hart said if it were not so bad for the country, the results could almost make a democrate. but who do the democrats do with these numbers? let's just even look at the short term. does this actually strengthen their hand as they go into negotiations to try to get a deal on the debt ceiling and potentially reopening the government? >> well, yes, chris, there definitely is cause for them to think that there is a better deal on the table. in fact the senate gop is putting one together right now. a longer term debt limit increase as well as a process for getting the government back open. here we are, day 11 of the shutdown, and all that the republican gop has been able to do is enact or pass $200 billion of the $985 billion required to reopen the government. so we have a tremendous problem here in this country and i would actually disagree with john. it's not just a messaging problem, it's actually a policy problem at this point and now ted cruz and senator lee are starting to see that in their favorability ratings in the polls. >> i wonder if the party needs to have more of a

peter hart who conducted the survey with republican pollster said quote, if it were not so bad for theost make a democrat smile. these numbers lead to one conclusion. republicans are not tone deaf. they are stone deaf. republicans now have to dig themselves out of this hole while democrats will try to bury them deeper. joining me now is tom davis, a former republican congressman from virginia and margie, a democratic pollster. what did you make of ted cruz coming out today and saying the poll wasn't any good? >> well, t just nonsense. but you have the look at who he's talking to. these people needed something and you could see from some of the other rhetoric there, trying to lift them up. the major problem is 80% of the members of the republican conference are from districts where romney was 55% or better, so they see themselves as immune regardless of what the polls show. >> are they more worried about congressional districts or presidential or lek tral votes? >> just looking out for number one. looking at their own cds. >> that is a concern. most presidents and to be a presidential p

these numbers, as peter hart, the pollster said to our own chuck todd, and his four years of polling, he's only seen a negative number move this quickly for a party in four or five years, after 40 years of polling. that has a lot of folks worried. when these guys hear, you can have a democratic wave if the elections were this november, that gets ears perked up and that gets them to say, hey, you know what? let's stop the government shutdown. let's extend the debt limit. and let's go after the president's health care law, which has had problems with enrollment, and we haven't been able to talk about that, because the media, rightfully so, has been focused on the government shutdown, the people suffering from that, as well as the economic catastrophe that could hit the world, if the debt limit was not extended. >> luke, what is happening with the southern conservatives and the sort of tea party wing of the house republican caucus. you're talking about how the other members of the house republican caucus, who aren't used to getting as much ink, are speaking up and saying, these poll numb

. >> peter hart, said if you were a democratic partisan you'd look at this poll with glee. but as anybody who believes in democracy, this is an enormously serious survey, and it's one of those-- bench watermarks in political attitudes and public attitudes. i think we may be on the cusp of that. i really do. >> woodruff: under a minute-- where does the be president go from here. what is his standing coming out of this? >> i think he need to figure out-- if this is a big defeat for republicans are, they weakened on immigration? is the tea party weakened? does he have an tune there or is that still probably not going to happen. i would be looking at the other party to stee what opportunities do i now have. he may have more. >> i think the president is very much in a strengthened position. but his own numbers don't begin to approach those of president clinton or president reagan in their second terms. i mean, he looks and withed stood really severe winds, whereas the republicans haven't. but i think he has to at the same time having prevailed in this encounter you can't say we

the question that i have coming out of this, and peter hart raised this question last week -- >> he'smocratic pollster who does the "wall street journal"/nbc poll. his question is, is this short term or is this going to be long term. is this going to be sort of a moment when the american public took a look at the republican party and decided you know what, they really can't run the government and we don't want them to do that, or will the damage just be short term because as you point out and as the "post" poll points out, they're kind of mad at everybody. we don't know the answer yet. >> the irony and the anger within the republican party, especially on the house side, is that it's the moderate members who come from the more competitive districts. there are not many of them but they tend to be in the northeast and midatlantic states. those members are now worried because they would vote to reopen the government. they have been saying all along don't do this, don't make this stand on obama care, don't shut down the government over this. the more conservative members are viewed as safe

republican party, but there is also in this poll a broad disgust with the american political system and peter hartster, one of the pollsters who did this poll, wrote sort of an analysis of it. what was interesting to me was he said you know, there are very few times when you measure public opinion and it crystallizes in a moment and it remains, and he has the sense that this shutdown has been a real crystallizing moment for people and their attitudes toward the republican party. we'll have to see if he's right. but he said what was stunning about this is how quickly it moved and how it has remained anti-republican. the people at the convention we just saw are one group in the republican party but i think they are so separate from the rest of the republican party that you may be looking at the dissolution of the republican party as we know it, because they disagree so vehemently not only on the strategy of obama care but they are really different parties right now. >> can the republicans repair this rift between the tea party wing and the more moderate republicans? >> let's remember sort of to a pe

when peter hart says this is one of the five or six most sequential -- and he taunts when you do something like that. you don't get to understand it. it takes months to settle down. because when you blow everything up. it doesn't reassemble in the same places. shifts suddenly. that's going take three to six months. we're not going know the enduring consequence of this. everyone has to write and there will be sunday talk shows who won and lost. it's nonsense. it's going take months to figure what happened in the consequence. the third thing is despite every bit of data you see. it doesn't mean republicans necessarily had a bad election cycle in 2014. the house has been drawn to have 196 seats. you need 218. are few seats in play, and also most of the senate campaigns are in republican terrain. despite everything you see, you can't look at it and say gosh it's bad things republicans. because typically in america when we're sitting around next october. the episode will be in the long rear view mirror and won't have that much consequence on what happened. the other thing i wish i could tell yo

my friend, peter hart, dates back to the mid 60's. says this is one of the five or six most consequently polls i've done in of hower in terms changedattitudes have and then he talks about it being offensive in 1968 or the release of the nixon tapes in 1973. starts comparing, this is the sixth survey in my career since the mid 60's where change thisata public, you've dropped a opinion bomb that's blown up the normal world where we normally see modest changes. something like that, you don't get to understand it. downkes months to settle because when you blow it up, it doesn't reassemble in the same place. shifts subtly and that's going to take three to six months so we're not going to enduring consequence of this because everyone has to write and there will be talk who won, who lost, this is nonsense. to figureke months out the consequence. the third thing, is despite every bit of data you've seen it doesn't mean the republicans have a bad election cycle in 2013. house has been drawn to have 80 safe seats. there are very few seats in pl

i think, as pollster peter hart said -- he is a democrat, but as he said, there are certain moments whens focused and the american public is focusing on this fight. they didn't like the government shutdown. republicans have dropped in the polls precipitously. if by chance there's some budget negotiation where everybody ends up singing kumbaya, maybe they'll change their mind. just like other moments in history, i would argue hurricane katrina, perhaps for george w. bush, the 47% for mitt romney. i think this could be a crystallizing moment. >> unless the continued problems with the rollout of obama care make this forgot zblen exactly. >> that's what the republicans are betting on. >> that's where it was a blunder. republicans stepped on their own message about obama care, which by the way now, of course, everybody can talk about. but this has been happening for the last couple of weeks. we've been talking about the government shutdown and the debt ceiling when, in fact, they could have made an awful lot of headway on the issue they really, really care about and that's what started this.

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