opening day today, i want to bring in peter morici, economics professor. is shine at in or going to recession. everybody wants to know. >> depends on how you define it. if the relevant country grows in a recession, that is possible in china. it will grow a lot less than reported statistics allege but even if it could, simply lowering the exchange rate, more auto parts here won't solve the problems. they need to grow in high-tech and so forth and the oppressive regime there imposing on the internet, track your social media, everything you are doing, could throw you in jail, any kind of intrusive will not cause technology entrepreneurs to stay there. they're all coming to my university and studying engineering and getting american passports. stuart: if you discount china as an influence on the american stock market, what do you look at?

stuart: peter morici, what do you make of this in china suspending circuit breakers letting the market go? >> they don't know what they're doing. i believe there is something to the notion that the market overreacted and suspending circuit breakers could bring it back a bit but it is not going to solve the problem. i give caution about walmart. part of the thinking is a benefit most from falling value beyond. the reality is so do their competitors and they have to compete for the sales and folks in an environment like this are not going to take cheaper gas prices to the store and buy more stuff. that is why fourth quarter growth, things won't pick up. stuart: we hear you. keith fitzgerald is with us. you are our asia expert. what do you make of the china market? i say it is the casino. don't think it has that much relevance to our market here. may have a little but i don't think it is that much. >> you are onto something. 81% of 200 million retail investors trade at least once a month, most graduate from high school. and is more consistent with gambling for investors in the west and so

stuart: very interesting, we will see you again very soon, peter morici.he obama administration starting its early-morning raids on illegal immigrants. homeland security wants then deported, remove. remember what donald trump unveiled a similar plan, he was called a racist. we are discussing this in a moment. this weeks btv spotlight features parnell pharmaceuticals, parn on nasdaq. parnell is focused on delivering innovative solutions to unmetanimal health needs in the 70 billion dollar pet market. we have core competences in drug discovery and development, regulatory filings, we have our own fda approved manufacturing facility and we have a significant commercial presence in 14 countries. zydax is our lead compound that we've been marketing in australia zydax affectively regenerates cartilage and can literally save lives. we had one of our sales executives tell us a story of seeing a dog in a clinic that just four weeks earlier had been brought in to be euthanized. the pet parents had to carry the dog in, it couldn't even walk. after just four injections

peter morici is with us, our favorite economics professor.d towards anything like a recession this year? >> well, you know, we're terrible at predicting those kinds of things, but a lot of the indicate canners are now in place. -- indicators are now in place. declining industrial production, tepid retail sales. the only thing that seems to have held up so far is then consumption numbers, but those tend to come out with a lag. employment we know is a lagging indicator, but some of the other basic information would seem to indicate some kind of recession is underway. stuart: well, that's rather dramatic news. i'm thinking what is the administration going to do about this? what economic tool, policy tool do they have to fix this? >> well, unfortunately, the administration will look at this as an opportunity to put in place some of the social programs. we saw that previewed in the state of the union where the president wants to put in place some kind of wage guarantee. you know, if you lose your job and you take another one at a lower wage, he'll

peter morici is with me now. lue in the face, but is it heading towards a lost decade, perhaps? >> it looks somewhat different than japan's lost decade, but it seems to be headed in that direction. zombie companies, stimulus running out of punch, depreciating its currency but running into a wall this be generating more ex-- in generating more exports. not quite where japan is with regard to a demographic wall, but getting closer to it. ashley: so we hear today that in 2015 the gdp came in at a 6.9% which most of the rest of the world would kill for, but do you believe that number? do you think it's slower hand that? >> along with my .329 batting average for last year with the new york yankees in the american league -- [laughter] we estimate it's growing at 4, 4.5%, most economists. but consider how much of that is false growth. if you put up an apartment building in a city that's not occupied, it still counts in the gdp, the process of putting up the building. and it counts in your balance sheet as wealth. but is

i want to bring in peter morici. the big debate, down the degree that it does.is good or bad overall? >> it is bad. short-term consumers get a lift, they are not spending it but we have so many companies going bankrupt and what happens after that is done? opec can turn around and raise the price as high as it likes one supplier's have gone. in the long term it is better off to endure gasoline at $2.50 a gallon and pay $34 a barrel and be done with it. charles: i don't think a lot of people are watching. when i make the same comments you did when oil started breaking year 100 there is a point i would rather have a job and pay 250 than not have a job and gasoline is now one dollar and $0.50. >> absolutely. think about how some of this money ends up, financing terrorism or have a huge military presence and so forth. in my mind we ought to have a national policy of oil between $50 to $60 a barrel, develop offshore resources as well as shale land finally cut the umbilical cord. at one point we got the imports to 4 million barrels a day. we could get rid of that depen