i've got two very high-profile guests with me now peter praet.he chief ecb economist and the former president of the philadelphia fed thank you both for joining us this morning i'd like to start with you and take it back to the most recent fed meeting. they seem to signal that they are coming to the end do you think the midcycle is over in the u.s. >> the correct answer to that is who knows. they are sending a signal for the time being the challenge has been the communication has been some what irrattic and it is hard to know under the terms and conditions they might act in the future it is a problem for the fed and the markets and public and not knowing under what circumstances will they return to easing or return to rates again. >> is that the function of the decision making that has also been quite irrattic when it comes to decisions on the trade war? >> i think both now. one of the problems is that the fed's communications about why it was easing had a lot to do with the potential for a trade war and the negative effects which hadn't really o