s&p during this period. >> i will coin this the tom petty market. to steve's excellent point, the waiting has been the hardest part. everybody has been waiting for this. we have now got it. will the losers get lucky sometimes? are we going to end the year higher? is this a buying opportunity? >> well, i agree with steve, it is from here. i guess my whole thesis is we will have a really volatile year but it's roughly going to end up flat where it started. that said, i think we've gone down from where we started. i think we might go up during the year, too. we might get as high as 2,000 sometime this year. i think we might come back down to where we started the year. i think it will be kind of a frustrating year because you won't be able to time it all right. i really think that the driving force here is not the fed tapering. we have known about that since last year. it's certainly not slowed down in the emerging world. that's been going on for two years. i think it's questioning whether or not the u.s. has lost momentum. i suspect that the weeks repo