again, pew data. these are all data on attitudes toward republican leaders toward incumbents, how much you want new faces in government. they all test people's willingness to vote for politicians out of loyalty whether to the party or whether because that politician has been there for a while and to vote on wanting the incumbent ousted. this data is striking to me. in terms of disapproval of republican leaders, republican leaners, the energy driver, motor behind the tea party, look more like democrats than they do like republicans. now that's remarkable. they are simply not loyal republicans. do they want their incumbent ousted, you bet. less party loyalty among this group by far than any other category. they do not like incumbents. do they want new faces in government? same story. this gives these people very different flavor from partisan republicans. the definition of a partisan is this is someone who will vote for you even when they think you're wrong. that's your base. these guys are saying, we ar

[speaking spanish] but new data from the pew but new data from the pewhispanic center suggest even though 24 million latinos are eligible to vote, hispanic voter turnout will be closer to 10 million. but why? latino voters are much younger than other racial and ethnic groups. and latinos in california and texas, two states with high hispanic populations, may not see a vote in the presidential election as very important. in 2008, 50% of eligible latinos voted, compared to 65% of african americans and 66% of white voters. latinos make up 11% of total eligible voters in 2012. now as cuban american, why is it that only ten out of 24 million eligible hispanic voters are going to the polls this year? >> that's obviously unfortunate. we want more latinos to go out and vote and be educated on the issues that are occurring. it starts at home. i think that i remember growing up i was sitting around the table, my dad was a political prisoner in cuba he would talk about importance of freedom of democracy i felt that that was sort of took my charge to go out there and get involved and learn the issues

again, pew data, these are all data on attitudes towards republican leaders, towards incumbents, how much you have new faces in government. they'll affect willingness to vote for politicians out of loyalty, whether to the party or because the politician has been there for a while and to vote on the other hand i'm wanting the incumbent ousted. this data is quite striking to me. in terms of disapproval of republican leaders, republican miners, the energy driver, the motor behind the tea party look more like democrats and a few republicans. that's remarkable. they are simply not loyal republicans. do they want their incumbent ousted? less party loyalty among this group by fire than any other category. they are rebels and they do not like incumbents. do they want new faces and governments? same story. this gives these people a very different flavor in my opinion from partisan republicans. the definition as this is someone who will vote for you even when they think you're wrong. that's your base, the classic definition. these guys are saying, at least that's what they were saying in 2010.

the fact of the matter is if you look at a week ago, republicans were quick to own all the pew data andact that romney was leading in the polls. the fact that it's not trending towards them now seems odd. megyn: the questions were raised because they chaingsd it so close teen election day, tucker. >> the cell phone change is not the only change that was made. the key change is in the sample, who gets the calls. they increased the size of the non-white sample in their sample set. megyn: that's one of the things axlerod wanted them to do. >> that's the key here. i have no knowledge that gallup is doing anything wrong or doing it because of pressure the federal government or the obama campaign. i'm merely noting this is a big deal. it has had a measurable change on the poll outcome on the band wagon effect is real. if people look at the polls and think somebody is going to win, if it's clear that person is leading, that person tends to get more support because he is leading. this is not a small thing. >> i would say we are talking about fractions and 1%, 2%. these aren't big massive jumps.

. >>> more sobering data comes to us from the pew center which finds 35 to 44-year-olds are the most worried about retirement. that is a stark contrast from just three years ago when generation x was the least concerned about retirement funds. >>> a new study ranks the nation's capital as the most affordable u.s. city. the study factors housing and transportation costs against median income. baltimore, philadelphia, minneapolis, and boston rounded out the top five. and finally, what does this guy have in common with brad pitt and george clooney. not as much as he thought. las vegas police are now looking for the 31 southern california man. they say he stole $1.6 million worth of casino chips from the venetian's resort. those chips are virtually impossible to cash in undetected. >>> coming up next, the champions of the national league are headed to the world series, plus a painful body slam sack on monday night football. your sports headlines are straight ahead. >>> well, if you live in the northern half of the country, quick changing weather is the rule as we go throughout the next f

. >>> more sobering data comes to us from the pew center which finds 35 to 44-year-olds are the mostorried about retirement. that is a stark contrast from just three years ago when generation x was the least concerned about retirement funds. >>> a new study ranks the nation's capital as the most affordable u.s. city. the study factors housing and transportation costs against median income. baltimore, philadelphia, minneapolis, and boston rounded out the top five. >>> in health news, is there a link between monster energy drinks and the deaths of five people? well, that's what the food & drug administration wants to know. they're launching an investigation into claims against the highly caffeinated drink. the company is also being sued by the family of a 14-year-old girl who had a heart attack after drinking monster energy two 24 ounce drinks in 24 hours. a spokesperson for monster said they don't believe their products caused any deaths. >>> coming up next, the champions of the national league are headed to the world series. >>> plus a painful body slam sack on monday night football.

at the same time, i'm not sure i would look at this pew poll alone without the broader context of datawe've seen some other polls today, for example the gallup tracking polls move slightly toward obama so right now it's close enough that you will have some polls showing a lead for either candidate and that makes it more dramatic and makes for big headlines but we think the consensus of data shows that will probably settle into being a very narrow lead for president obama, probably one or two points on average, that is an educated guess. >> one of the most interesting aspects of this poll was the 18 point lead in the pew showed that romney had with women has evaporat evaporated. obama by comparison who had been joyously messiahnic as a speaker -- >> the nonverbal communication. if you watched that debate with the sound off it looked like a more compelling win for romney than if you read the transcript where obama was looking away, looked like his heart wasn't in it. that means if he gives a more spirited performance in the next two debates, he could regain some ground. there are really

i believe pew, actually, has released some data on that specifically very recently. >> we did. we put out a report just last week from a survey of latinos, and as mark pointed out, latino catholics are strongly democratic. i think it was about seven in ten in the our poll who favored obama over romney. latino catholics who say they have no religion, atheists and agnostics and those who describe their religion as just nothing in particular also firmly in obama's camp, more than eight in ten religiously-unaffiliated latinos expressed support for obama. latino evangelicals also, you know, if anything, tended to lean in obama's direction over romney. but they were much, much more closely divided. i think about half of them said that they would, they would vote for obama if the election were held today. so, yes, big, important religious divisions among latinos. >> i have a question to pose to all of the panelists. predictions for which way the catholic vote is going to go in 2012, and, um, in that regard one of the things that seems like it's a possibility is that -- especially give

pew poll that was discussed. >> okay. >> but when we monitor our data from saturday and sunday, and now just looking at the numbers last night, obama is picking back up again. so, we think that that continuation of a huge move by romney is not in the data. so, overall, we would say it's looking like the race is, among registered voters, still tilting slightly in obama's direction. among likely voters, which we'll begin reporting out today, we think that romney will probably have an even orvery, very slight lead. >> so, based on what you're looking at, and i know you're not reporting the full numbers until 1:00, but based on the raw data you're looking at, has the president regained what he lost after the debate? is he just closing some of what he lost? how would you characterize it? >> well, that's a good question. i would say that obama has gained back some of what he has lost but has not gained back to where he was prior to the debate when he was ahead by five points among registered voters. i would say since that it looks like he's gained some of it back but not all of it. so, we will see. every day we get new

let me add some data to this. a new pewority of voters view the vice president unfavorably by a 51% to 39% margin. for congressman ryan, it's more evenly divided. 40% view him unfavorably. expectations for vice president joe biden's performance tonight in kentucky are also fairly low, which is perhaps an advantage. 40% say they expect congressman ryan will do a better job in the debate. 34% for mr. biden. >> you know, we go into this debate, mark halperin, with expectations low for the democrat. last time they were low for the republican. i think we may have these backwards. we said from the beginning mitt romney is a very good debater. look past his prologue. the same with joe biden. joe biden and chris dodd were great debaters in 2008. they're both great in this forum, and biden is going to be great tonight. >> reporter: two things. i'm not being facetious here. paul ryan and joe biden are two of the best people in politics for us to cover. so i think the favorability for both should be about 100. two, it's only going to

pew research is an independent corporation. gallup. none of them are liberal or conservative. their mission is to produce unbiased data to describe the election and our reputations depend on not only the accuracy of polling but being perceived as being unbiased and a lot of people look closely at what we do to try to catch some evidence of bias. but then you also have campaign who work for the democratic party or democratic candidates, for the republican party and republican candidates. i know a lot of people in the business. they are also very serious professionals. they want their candidates to win, of course. but they also have the to defend. so, the ones in that sector who are doing public polling have the same kind of incentives that we do not to put their thumb on the scale because number one people will catch them and number two, they will be wrong. host: any idea how profitable the polling industry is? guest: i think that it is pretty profitable. i think it is a good business to be in because not only is there political polling which is what we do pretty much exclusively, social and political topics. but surve

data poll numbers could one state they are not behind early vote numbers is colorado. problem is colorado happens to be one of the republican's strongest early voting states. there was a survey, by pew i believe, shows that obama is winning early vote by 7 points, he won is by 16 16, 4 years ago. lou: as we look at numbers, the fox polls the two men are locked up, 46% each. and that happens to be where the real clear politics poll of polls has this race. knotted up, even. with 5 days remaining before the election. your thoughts? >> well, here is the thing, momentum is with mitt romney, storm is a little bit of a bump. his numbers have been going up. and president obama's numbers down. with regard to early voting as well, democrat strategy to get as many people out to vote who are reliable voters while republican strategy to get hard to get voters, those who need that extra nudge, thret gem out first, on election day, it will be republicans with a larger pool of reliable voters to get out, democrats are using them at, i think that momentum is are mitt romney, you see the newspaper endorsement, state after state they went for obama in 08, now mitt romney n 12, you see this in florida,

is that something on which we have data and we can say that's true or not true? >> we have graph on it. this comes from a pewthat was done in six countries around the world. it looked at range of questions. what do you think of american technology? ways of doing business if you look at the change from '07 to 2012, of every single measure the change was positive. on the ones most direct analogies are ways of doing business and countries feel about our ideas spreading there, you see most of them higher, even double digits. it's hard to say what do you mean when we measure but when you talk about the way people think about us in the world, there's no doubt based on the best polling evidence, america is doing better than it was five years ago on range of metrics and range of questions. >> even things that sound like platitudes are more interesting when you chase down the the data behind them. ed, you can see the obama campaign is bullish too. how did they try to make political capital. >> obviously the president was strong tonight. the president also sent a message tonight. he told us about iran that everything'

the pew forum on religion in public life finds about 20% of american adults say they have no particular ties to a given faith. that's up from about 15% just five years ago. and the dataple moving away from established religion. that can have an impact beyond the pews and into politics, as this activist who questions religious dogma suggests. >> they don't see it, religion, especially just dogma, as something that's important for determining their values. with respect to this group of individuals, republicans are seen as having some of their policies shaped by religious doctrine, especially in the area of same-sex marriage and reproductive rights. >> when you look at voting trend lines, you can see what lindsay in talking about. in 1990, 5% of voters didn't identify with any particular religion. in the 2010 election, that number had increased to 12%. but don't think that means religion is unimportant. just about everyone we spoke to say some form of faith is part of their lives. >> you have to find something that grounds you. >> good morals, which comes from religion, is the basis of good people. >> back at the basilica, monsignor says what he believes is going is tha

is that something on which we have data and we can say that's true or not true? >> we have graph on it. this comes from a pewoll that was done in six countries around the world. it looked at range of questions. what do you think of american technology? ways of doing business if you look at the change from '07 to 2012, of every single measure the change was positive. on the ones most direct analogies are ways of doing business and countries feel about our ideas spreading there, you see most of them higher, even double digits. it's hard to say what do you mean when we measure but when you talk about the way people think about us in the world, there's no doubt based on the best polling evidence, america is doing better than it was five years ago on range of metrics and range of questions. >> even things that sound like platitudes are more interesting when you chase down the the data behind them. ed, you can see the obama campaign is bullish too. how did they try to make political capital. >> obviously the president was strong tonight. the president also sent a message tonight. he told us about iran that everyth

pew research center for the people and the press. these figures, and the rest will show on this chart, they are not our most recent data on catholics. brother, they come -- rather, they come from aggregate's service that has been done over 2012. the reason for that is that aggregating data in that way is the only way to generate a case count that is large enough to look at the smaller groups. these findings to not necessarily reflect the latest developments in the campaign, most obviously the debates. they are illustrious for thinking about the nature of the catholic swing vote. the white catholics conservatives have been strongly in mitt romney's corner, by more than a four to one margin this year. white catholic liberals, hispanics, and other minority catholics have essentially been the mirror image of white conservatives. these groups have been firmly in obama's camp. white catholic moderates, by comparison, have been much more evenly divided. to be sure, the balance of opinion among white catholic moderates this year has leaned towards obama as opposed to romney, but clearly they are much more closely divided than any of the oth