let me get your thoughts first of all, philip mudd i will start with you.o that aqap and their bomb makers in his words, they are pretty close to making a bomb that would not be detected by airport screening. it would be very hard to detect. that's pretty ominous right now. they are pretty close, he says. what do you make of that assessment? >> look, i think you have to put a few factors together. the first is the near successful attack over detroit in 2009. that was the bomb maker in yemen who is still around. the second fakis the factor the under wear bomber. he has had six years to figure out how to come up with a device that doesn't use metal components. now we have a safe haven. isis in syria has been around long enough to organize bomb makers to try to build on that technique they almost used successfully over detroit. to draw the conclusion they might be able to be at a phase where they could have the success that they couldn't get to in 2009 i think is a fair judgment. >> pretty close. that's pretty ominous. peter bergen you are familiar with that m

joining us to talk about this, cnn counterterrorism analyst and former official philip mudd, and juliaan official at homeland security, perfect to talk about this today. phil, you were on the front lines of this intelligence war against terror. we now know the name of jihadi john. intelligence has known it for a while. if you're on the front lines, how bad do you want to get this guy? how important is it and how do you do it? >> i don't think he's important as an operatorment i think there are higher levels of the organization responsible for leading and managing isis. the importance here is what's happened in this, more particularly in the last five years. that is the fight on the internet and social media. he's going to become an avatar for terrorists. he's going to become a symbol especially since his name is known. operationally i think he's chump change. in terms of radicalizing people and recruiting, i think he's significant. >> the profile i find fascinating. julia, come in on this. the profile we're learning about mohammed emwazi, he's college educated, a computer programmer. h

here's the question for you, philip mudd. they've got money in iraq. it's an opec country. should american taxpayers be paying for this equipment that is sent there? >> because they are spending their forces and their forces and we are not. look we're talking about $17 million, wolf. that's a chump change check. i'll go down in downtown miami and buy a beer. the portion is less than $17 million. secondly general hertling says he's not all concerned. i'm less concerned than he is. let's go through our options here. we've decided that isis is a problem. we can, a, do nothing and, b, provide military support that might go to some of the isis adversaries. we can see sending u.s. forces. when you get out of fantasy and get into reality, the choice is not that difficult. the chump change give them the 17 million bucks, it's not that hard. >> i hope you both are right. i'm concerned given the awful track record of the iraqi military. the state department warning there's an attack that looks like it's imminent, could be at the u.s. embassy in kabul or wherever. they just issued a s

. >>> i want to bring in our chief national security correspondent, jim sciutto, philip mudd and fran you think of the president's strategy as he outlined it today? >> look i served under the bush administration. i was nominated by president obama. let's take this out of washington. we should do what the adversary doesn't like and we should avoid what they like. they do not like to be referred to ace murderers. why have they declined to put video of the murder of that american woman a week ago on the internet? it's because they don't have an explanation for murder. by contrast they want to create a war between islam and christianity. anything we can do to avoid feeding their narrative, that is allowing them to say the americans are the christians we are the muslims, i'm not a democrat, i'm not a republican what i would say in this instance i agree with the president. don't do what they want us to do. don't refer to us as anti-islam because they will pervert that to say that they are defenders of islam against the american christians. i think what he did was okay. >> fran you were pres

let's bring in philip mudd to break down what is going on right now. we have a map. is happening with isis. >> look where we started 15 years ago. we go into south asia. the group that posed a threat 3,000 people dead but small geographic space after 9/11. they move out from afghanistan into the tribal areas of pakistan threat that could daniel a lot of american cities kill a lot of people. geographically focused so you can get intelligence resources military. let's contrast that to today. look at the depth of the threat versus what we focus on today. boko haram abducting girls in nigeria, the decay in libya, isis front here al qaeda in the arabian peninsula, and then where we started, we have seen in the past couple weeks reports of the folks from iraq isis recruiting in afghanistan. you see the breath of the problem we face. not as strategic as the original al qaeda. but trying to put your finger in 1,000 d thoushgs,000 dikes. >> isis is a huge threat. but al qaeda and the splinter groups any of these, they are loosely align as well? >> it's not just the alignment

philip mchl philip mudd what do you anticipate?s over the next few months and years. you have to have the target to respond to and an intelligence picture built up over time to give you those target options. i think the jordanians are signaling that they will be with us in a year's long fight against isis that will have a lot of reverses. but if you're looking at perfect targeting tomorrow that allows you to show reaction overnight, i don't think you have the targets to do that. >> what about that colonel reese? this is a new level of brutality by isis right now and you heard the foreign minister of qatar saying that he thinks this is a potential turning point. i assume for jordan when they say that they are going to have earth-shattering revenge, they mean it? >> wolf phil is right. the targeting is not going to come out in the next couple of hours but what you'll see here is just this. isil made a mistake. we watched this with zarqawi, too, in iraq. this gives us a great opportunity here to step back and be the consultant for the

let's get more from bob baer paul cruickshank, military analyst mark hertling and philip mudd. congressman, what he just told me here in "the situation room." he thinks the air strikes are not working that effectively. he believes isis is stronger today than it was six months ago. >> i disagree from a couple of respects. we saw isis push back and now we have the kurds saying that they are going to obtain the ground offensive against isis. let's go to something equally important and that's the isis ideological message. they made the mistake of murdering the jordanian pilot and now they've made the mistake of murdering an innocent female. if you contrast it to where we were last summer if you're standing around in an isis camp campfire you cannot say that you're doing well. >> general hertling the president said that it was thought that kayla mueller, the humanitarian aid worker who was killed had been present at the site of a failed rescue attempt, that they probably missed the u.s. special operations forces missed them her and another american maybe by a day or two. are you surp

joining us is philip mudd a former cia official our cnn intelligence and security analyst bob baer aperative, retired lieutenant colonel james reese and our law enforcement analyst, fomtom fuentes. the suspect in this denmark shooting is dead. but two accomplices -- potential accomplices, alleged accomplices are being held right now. where does this investigation move especially now that he posted before this incident his loyalty to isis? >> wolf the first place it moves is to the two additional people that they are investigating as to whether they provided support to him, knew of the plot in advance and helped him carry it out or at least provided a safe haven for him. and whether others are involved and whether it's connected to the other attacks directly or indirectly in paris and the groups in belgium and to the united states. they are trying to look at who is involved. >> would the fbi normally help the danish in a situation like this? >> yeah. the fbi opened there in 1999. going back the plot to go after the newspaper in copenhagen was being planned for by a man who coordinated

. >> because philip mudd the europeans, certainly not the americans, they don't need visas to come inf they want to show up here. right? >> that's correct. what i would say to comment on this situation is in some ways what the fbi official is saying is worrying. in my world it's assuring. here is why, wolf. i sat -- i tried to count how many counterterrorism meetings i sat in on. you own a cell. you get technical coverage phone and e-mail. you get a human source in there. the thing that i was always worried about and the thing our officers were focused on is what about the people you don't know about? 15 years after 9/11 you want people who are constantly thinking, there are cells or individuals out there we don't know about. in contrast to the people we're covering today, it's the unknowns that we have to chase every day. >> evan you are getting information about an isis terrorist out there trying to recruit people. what are you learning? >> this guy is -- one of the things that worried officials is it seemed to suggest he was an american. he was claiming to be american. he is from t

philip mudd tell us about the intention behind al shabab's latest threat.the terror prop ganaganda machine? >> the simple is straightforward. i don't think al shabab has a strategic capability in the united states. our first suicide bomber was a somali who went to al shabab from minnesota. there will be sympathizers in the country. al shabab is trying to get an echo affect among them. the more subtle point is al shabab is watching isis watching al qaeda. in the past couple years, they have been on their heels because african forces have moved them out of the capital and continue to constrain the geographic space within which they operate. some of this is an attempt at aggressive operations or inspiring aggressive operations in the united states. some of it in my view is a reflection of al shabab's weakness in their intent to remain relevant. >> will it resonate this latest video, if they're trying to inspire a lone wolf or a group of individuals to go out there and commit a terror attack whether here in the united states in canada the u.k. or elsewhere? wil

existed, something maajid nawaz was in and now joining us, with former fbi counter terrorism official philip mudd. they've known for a while and keep it on the down low. now it's out there, does it that make easier or harder to capture him? >> i don't think capture is likely. first, get the intelligence not only where he is today but where he is tomorrow and second, take the risk of putting somebody -- i suspect over time, he will be identified and killed either by u.s. forces, a syrian striker by fight inging by extremist groups, and i cannot imagine despite what the white house says bringing him back for justice, he is ever going to be coming out of there. >> maajid, it's interesting. we've talked about and a lot of people focused in the past about radicalization and other things that lead to it, poverty, lack of opportunities, sense of humiliation. he wasn't poor. he went to college, had a degree in computers. it seems like there's no boundaries anymore for somebody who actually may be attracted to this stuff. >> well, yes, anderson. i've written a piece for one of the national newspapers, "th

joining us now philip mudd mark hurtling paul cruickshank and salma hamdani.are getting new information about the raid last month in belgium, foiling an isis terror plot that supposed by the information you are learning it was a lot more -- a bigger than we originally thought. >> a lot bigger. belgian officials telling me the isis leadership were behind it. they sent a cell back to belgium to carry this out. the plan was to launch a terrorist spectacular. when they went into the safe house, they found automatic weapons, they found chemicals necessary to make explosives they found police uniforms suggesting they wanted to gain access to sensitive sites. they found a gopro camera suggesting they wanted to film this for propaganda purposes. they believe the cell was coordinated by an operative in greece. he had a system of phone calls to communicate with them coded messages. they believe it was a very sophisticated plot and isis leadership was behind it. >> phil, if the isis terror i haves in belgium were targeting a major area like nato headquarters what does it

. >> philip mudd the jordanians are vowing they will do their best to crush isis and they will launchsaying that. if you step back and look at the targets that we have we have been going after this target since the summer. isis has been imbedding for three or four years. to think you can overnight turn a switch on with air strikes and defeat al qaeda and turn it back i think is not proper. we have to look at the jordanian commitment to go into iraq and say this better be around for months or years, because we're going to be at this for a long time. >> i think you are right. stan by stand by. we have new details on the horrifying plane crash. did seat belts make a difference as to who lived and who died? [ male announcer ] eligible for medicare? that's a good thing, but it doesn't cover everything. only about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. so consider an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. like all standardized medicare supplement insurance plans they could save you in out-of-pocket medical costs. call tod

let's get more with our cnn national security analyst peter berg en philip mudd fran townsend. starr's report. the coalition wim launch this offensive to try to retake mosul, including a lot of iraqi kurdish ground troops american troops in an advisory capacity. is it accurate to say that there would be no u.s. combat troops on the ground if that operation were to begin? >> wolf i think the administration and the pentagon are going to try to make the distinction between those who actually go forward in tactical units in the fight and those who stay behind the line and advice. barbara made the point about how unusual it is the u.s. military doesn't signal before a battle that it's going to go into. i think it's a little irresponsible that we're announcing that we are going to prepare kurdish and iraqi forces to go in six or eight weeks before they are going in. really you are telling the enemy we're coming. the mean will set traps and will have time to plan against us. so look regardless of whether or not we're going in i don't think it's smart to signal your intention. >> you a

philip mudd and mark hurtling are here.on the belgium ringleader who was working on a plot that was foiled. what are you hearing? >> reporter: that's right. isis are claiming he is now back in syria, the suspected ringleader in the plot in belgium last month. the authorities believe he was coordinating the cell from greece. in a new issue in the english isis magazine he explains how he was able to evade a manhunt to get to syria. they are featuring a picture with him and two of the dead gunmen who were killed by belgian commanders in the raid last month. all of this very much tieing isis to this plot a plot against the west. a lot of concern among western intelligence agencies that isis is pivoting towards wanting to launch attacks in the west. senator james risch open your show last week said isis was moving beyond aspirational when it came to launching plots against the u.s. >> phil mudd this guy was being sought after, he was operating out of greece. somehow he manages to get from greece presumably to turkey then across

philip mudd peter bergen the former jordanian minister and retired general mark heartling.ere you surprised they acted this quickly? >> no i wasn't. public opinion was asking for t. it was boiling, still is boiling. let's remember, these were on the death row already. they're not -- people were sentenced to death. given the need for careful planning of any intensified air strikes against isis i think everybody was looking for something quick to basically diffuse some of the tension in the country. >> we're hearing jordan's air force, which is very capable, despite the loss of the pilot, they want to intensify the air strikes and really punish isis. you are hearing the same thing. >> i have no doubt about it. again, i think it's not going to be an emotional response. you need time to identify targets, to plan operations. i don't think we should expect anything quick. but it will be i think, intensifies. >> the uae, among the closest friends the united states has in the region the united arab emirates they halted their participation in the air strikes after the pilot was lost

joining us peter bergen philip mudd general mark hertling and robert baer.osul offensive, the operational plans, if you will how many troops will be involved when they will go in? is there some reason to do this? it's surprising. >> i'm not surprised at all. i can't figure out what this debate is. i don't have much hair left but what i have i'm pulling out. the second largest city in iraq is in the isis heartland, the military -- iraqi military was surprised last summer. isis no longer has the opportunity of surprise. the iraqi military has air power superiority provided by the united states superior intelligence superior manpower. we're saying it's a surprise they are going to retake mosul? i don't get why we're thinking this is a huge surprise. this has been in debate for months. i think as you are suggesting there might be an advantage in talking about this target. i think the isis guys believe they are or daned by god to success. a lot of them untrained recruits might show up in a place like mosul to say, you want to fight, bring it on we will show up we

let's get more with our intelligence and security analyst robert baer philip mudd mike rogers and ourly the u.s. and britain are refusing to confirm it is there something we need to know why official confirmation can't be made known and why they are not releasing a pith picture of this guy? >> two things. one, they probably have a higher degree of certainty. they may not be certain this is exactly him. number two, they are just not ready, i think in their investigation, to allow that to happen for the simple reason they have methods and sources of how they may have obtained anyone's identity and who jihadi john might be and they don't want to disclose that. >> you think it's intelligence related issue as opposed to a legal issue in london? they have laws about identifying suspects who are under investigation. >> i think it's more of the latter. i think they are worried about protecting the chain of how they got their, how they determined it who they are talking to why they are talking to certain individuals. therefore, they are not going to want to do this. i believe by the way -- i h

. >> i want to bring philip mudd our analyst in as well. were there major blunders that were made?n the radar for four or five years. >> jim will owe me on this because my answer is no. the reason is very simple and straightforward. intelligence is not evidence. i can watch him on facebook. i can watch him talk to bad people overseas. i can watch him travel to bad areas. that is not the same. that sense of smell an intelligence officer has to say he's a bad guy, to bring in a court of law and prove it. intelligence isn't evidence. that's what you see in this case. >> that's a good point. >> reporter: no question. this is the challenge that intelligence authorities have here in the u.s. like they have had in europe. you can have snippets of information that give you suspicion. we live in a land of law. you have to follow the law to put these guys in prison. >> same in the u.k. stand by. we have more breaking news coming into "the situation room." this time from capitol hill. a republican effort to temporarily keep the department of homeland security in funding has now failed. the mo

hold on nic, i want to bring in philip mudd as well into this conversation. about this. and we're actually trying to explore the notion of how vulnerable has denmark become in recent years and what is the track record of that and i think that explanation from nic in large part perhaps really pinpoints that part of the discussion which is if so many young men or people in general have been leaving denmark and becoming radicalized to join isis to join al qaeda then this is a very significant problem for denmark and you talked about perhaps the counterterrorism efforts in denmark may not be you know, up to snuff compared to some other european nations or even compared to the u.s. why would that be given these kind of numbers? >> i'm not suggesting that the danish security service isn't up to snuff. what i'm saying is over the course of time especially in this age, this century of terror the numbers of people you have to follow as a security service is unprecedented. denmark has had a history of violence. these cartoons were first published ten years ago in 2005.