phillip swagel is the congressional budget office director kind enough to join us now.g us. >> neil thank you so much. neil: so how do you see it? i know that's a worse case scenario. as things stand now, it is possible that as soon as july we could be facing that. what did you base that on? >> no that's right and that's what we put out a report on wednesday with a three-month window so july, august, september, and that's based on our detailed analyst of the revenue coming into the government, and the spending going out. the monthly and daily payments that the treasury makes for the u.s. government, and the key uncertainty is revenue. that we know that well people who have refunds tend to e-file, people with payments tend to paper file, so in the middle and late april into may, we'll start to get a sense of what kind of revenue is coming in, and whether that matches our projections. if the revenue is weaker than we projected it could be on the early side or even earlier than july. neil: all right, now, you're probably one of the smartest cbo directors from educated at p