digging deeper into the companies behind the sales rush, companies like php, philip morris, john deere and volkswagen coming to the stage with offerings. the busiest week since early august. barclays estimates that there will be up to $20 billion of new bond supply and up to 25 billion dollars in leveraged loan for september. meanwhile, oaktree says they don't need to see a recession to see defaults tick up. >> i would expect rates to stay higher for longer as well because with or without a recession, there is going to be an elevated default experience. i think the need for private capital will be quite high. we are seeing the beginnings of the need for cap capital -- gap capital to refinance maturities that will become topical next year and the year after. katie: now we have brian rehling of wells fargo and steven oh of pinebridge investments. steven i will start with you. is a rise of default inevitable? steven: the rise is inevitable but you have to put things in context. you arising from ultra low levels to what i would consider moderate levels. from the past couple of years we hav