haidi: robert mead, thank you for joining us, co-head of asia-pacific portfolio management at pimco.ore elaboration from beijing about the multiple points to boost growth, particularly on the consumption side. let's talk about the strategy we heard yesterday. annabelle is here for morning calls. it's like waiting for godot, isn't it? in terms of stimulus. we haven't got it. annabelle: that's right. another day of disappointment, i guess you could say. you got it in a nutshell there. we heard so much talk of stimulus coming through. what will it take? we probably need more concrete policy. this plan announced yesterday is 11 steps. one of the things it is focusing on is trying to lift spending on key household items. furniture is quite interesting one because of the sluggish spending on furniture, it has been one of the drags on retail sales in china. we had inventory piling up, well above historical averages -- this chart going back to 2017 -- you saw a drawdown coming out of covid. policymakers are focused on trying to encourage consumers to go out and spend money on their homes. if

he is head of short-term portfolio management and funding at pimco. you are well. jerome: while we are awaiting central bank policies, getting rbnz just now and policy rhetoric from the rba. we're in tomb with a gentle but forceful forecasting of how we will adopt to a higher inflationary regime, and importantly, how central banks will adapt to it being more data dependent, and perhaps being more pensive and adopting a longer process. but it doesn't necessarily mean you will get a higher rate hiking cycle. it probably means we have to not necessarily handicapped the traditional reaction of weaker growth which is accompanied by lower rates. we have a balance of tasks ahead of us over the next few quarters it be confounding as you just mentioned with rba. the task for investors over the next few quarters. david: it seems the pandemic has messed with our ability to analyze cycles. you have data that is soft, later did in the u.s. that is quite strong -- what are we assuming that's wrong? jerome: we're getting back to a economy and central bank policies t

andrew balls let's bring inandrew balls andrew balls from pimco europe. the ecb move 25 basis points. christine lagarde did say data out of europe is looking pretty dire. what is the sense you are getting on what the next move will be? >> the growth data is weaker as christine lagarde said. but they are further behind the u.s. in terms of disinflation. i think the hawkish camp at the ecb is in the driving seat. as with the fed, they have moved into data dependent mode here, but it seems plausible they go at least one more time, possibly more. it is going to be very important to see the trajectory for inflation confirmed in europe that we are starting to see in the u.s.. haslinda: what does it mean for the european bond market? >> the markets are expecting some further tightening. almost a full hike. it is very interesting, you see yields in europe which look pretty attractive. the ecb getting may be up to 4%, so there has been a big shift in terms of european markets. we are going to be looking for the same indications as in the u.s. on inflation. the wor

tony: pimco's view is the neutral rate is between zero and .5 point about the inflation rate, call it 2.5 or so. it may be evolving, there's a debate about the impact of demographics for example. we know 1957i mentioned this fact before, it is the biggest birth yield by sentry so fast forward 65 years later, big wave of retirements, the biggest in history. it is reducing the amount of labor supply and will continue through 2030, pushing up wages and that could have an impact for all we know on the neutral rates. secondly, this movement worldwide to invest in defense and in the brown to green energy transition, supply chains, all of that might raise spending and reduce the saving glut that kept interest rates down. it could also boost productivity which can have influence, upward influence, on the neutral rate. so the jury is out but we sticking with the idea that it is lower than historical and that will keep yields low and the yield curve probably reflects that. katie: we don't have much time left but i would be remiss if we did not mention is not just the fed next week, we have the

tom: tony crescenzi from pimco. thank you. zentner in the 8:00 hour. ♪ >> a lot of the good news is already priced in. when you think of the 3 trillion, it is on the back of the iphone which continues to perform very well. we think of the next trillion, you think of vision pro, virtual reality, there are structural challenges for apple. tom: he is neutral on the stock, a hugely constructive long-term. he is not a fan on apple. that was a fascinating conversation. what was a superb effort to inform the product linkage to the financials and a stock performance. the same can be said about something that doesn't have persistent cash flows of apple. and that is tesla. joining us for the hour, karen dawson fromedge wealth -- from newedge. when you go to the guru -- why don't you go to the guru? katie: let's go to alex webb who joins us from london. i want to start with apple. the news reporting apple is preparing to make fewer than 400,000 units of its vision pro headset. those were downgraded expectations already. we to expect furt

katie: looked go cross as it peered we had an interesting conversation with andrew balls of pimco. >>iven the tightness, i think it makes sense to be underweight here. there are other ways of earning spread without that exposure to corporate credit. katie: matt, i think it is an interesting question when you are talking about spread so narrowly and you think about high-grade names, why bother with herbert credit at all with -- why bother with corporate credit at all? george: shorting income is a dangerous way to make a living in fixed income. treasuries are fine and will get you home but if the world does break for the downside can rally to offset spread risk. because you have the potential for interest rates to rally, you can afford some credit risk in your portfolio because you have a risk hedge in duration should things move south. just have performed incredibly well. as interest rate volatility clients and correlations with equities move from positive to near zero or negative, you are still paid to take some spread risk but it is just how deep down you go and we don't think you ha

his former colleagues at pimco were talking about tolerating two point something. lot of the theory is based off inflation-adjusted dynamics, reaction functions, dare i say, differential equations. corporations do not matter. the public lives in a nominal space, with the british call myspace. -- money space. jonathan: do they throw sharks still? tom: no. mohamed: where do you end on the ps? is it once and done on the ups? jonathan: are talking about strikes? tom: it is a tough call in america. jonathan: the threat of strikes is not over. tom: they want to make it the euro equivalent and i am not sure it is. jonathan: equities are up. ♪ >> i think we are going to see deflationary pressures. that is going to kick in into the fall. right now, it is all about earnings. if we are going to get some kind of period that is not imminent recession, those laggards have to be bought. jonathan: head of macro strategy. live from new york city, good morning. positive on the session on the s&p one third of 1%. treasuries rallying. yields lower by single basis point. tom: this is a

pimco's annisa lee will be joining us next.rg. ♪ nyon university's rn to bsn online degree program makes earning your bachelor's in nursing possible. balance online coursework with local in-person clinicals to prepare you to lead as a charge nurse in the time you have - from wherever you are - leaving room for what matters. achieve your goals with your personalized plan and team behind you. find your purpose at grand canyon university. visit gcu.edu rishaad: there we go. we have got pressure from the tech side of things and the property for the hang seng, one point 2% down currently. shanghai comp managing to keep its head above water. it is against the background of the security organization telling the central bank they have ample room for rrr rate cuts. we get more with jill disis. jill: we are waiting for indications of more stimulus we will get this year. we have the politburo meeting where traditionally leaders set out economic agendas for the rest of the year. that might include any direct announcements on a policy inter

on the agenda today, pimco's tiffany wilding is with us why she says the second half of the year will prove to be very different than first and why credit may be your best bet going forward. >> plus, house financial services committee ranking member, maxine waters joins us the house kicking off a hearing on esg investing today, and what could be a contentious fight even black rock's larry fink says the term esg has been weaponized in congress >>> and later on, why amazon prime day is not exciting one veteran. >>> it is a celebration of the weaker inflation, softer inflation read than what was expected, and that than what we've seen in a long time, going back to march 2021 we got a 3% inflation read s&p is up 1% right now every sector is higher and what's leading us in particular, well, it's technology consumer discretionary, financials, they're all having good days. materials, it's cyclical also tied to the economy as well. what's lagging, more defensive groups like consumer staples and health care. also, carl, i just have to say, i'm watching the u.s. dollar, because it's making a bi

pimco joins us to discuss what will come out of the talks. bloomberg. ♪ >> australia's central bank is getting its first female governor. current deputy michelle bullock, replacing phil lowe in september. with us now from sydney is the deputy chief economist and amp. -- at amp. no surprise really. what is most important about michelle bullock getting this job? it's not an easy time to be running and i central bank. certainly not there were central bank of australia, in a country where inflation is still pretty high and still coming down rather slowly. >> i think it was the right decision from the government. my concern was that an outside appointment from the reserve bank would not say that continuity that i think is really critical at this current point in a cycle. because the task of getting inflation down is not yet finished in australia. is not yet finished around the world either. so as someone who knows what the reserve bank needs to do to get inflation down, someone that understands how forecasting works, how to manage inflation expect

shery: the g20 in into get this week, what are some of the geopolitical risks pimco is watching? enough geopolitical risks to watch, and we highlighted that in our most recent essay. obviously you have a land where in europe, you have tensions in asia or incipient intentions -- tensions in asia. this is a precarious line in terms of risk. our baseline view is any extreme outcomes are not the likely case, but as an investor you always have to be attentive to either low probability events, and we are factoring those in as appropriate to our investment energy. -- strategy. haidi: always great to have you with us, richard. let's get you back to hong kong, annabelle is taking a look at movers when it comes to asian and king given the tailwind we are expecting to get from u.s. bank earnings. annabelle: that is right, we had them kicking off on friday in the u.s. jp morgan, wells fargo, citigroup, we saw them raising earlier gains but they closed in the red this morning. yes, we are seeing mixed moves throughout the session, and 10 minutes into trading korea and australia, most sectors

is the time to buy when "power lunch" comes back >> announcer: the bond report is brought to you by pimco, a global leader in fixed income. with voya, considering all your financial choices together... can help you be better prepared for unexpected events. voya. well planned. well invested. well protected. we planned well for retirement, but i wish we had more cash. you think those two have any idea? that they can sell their life insurance policy for cash? so they're basically sitting on a goldmine? i don't think they have a clue. that's crazy! well, not everyone knows coventry's helped thousands of people sell their policies for cash. even term policies. i can't believe they're just sitting up there! sitting on all this cash. if you own a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more, you can sell all or part of it to coventry. even a term policy. for cash, or a combination of cash and coverage, with no future premiums. someone needs to tell them, that they're sitting on a goldmine, and you have no idea! hey, guys! you're sitting on a goldmine! come on, guys! do you hear that? i don't hear a

alix: that echoes what we hear a lot, like from pimco yesterday talking about how now is not a beat thet they are looking for that distress. capital not being tested in any real downturn and it's how you manage that. guy: understanding the risk profile in the credit market is difficult right now. we talked to a lot of people in the credit market and they talked about it being a real sweet spot, that valuations looked really good right now, but there are a lot of -- matt, does this apply to all of credit? public credit as well? do you just want to avoid equity and focus instead on fixed income? bonds, public or private read it? matthew: i don't think we should ignore equity entirely but with interest rates and spreads as high as they are in carry terms, there is incentive to be underinvested or under exposed to equities at the moment. it's important to point out that vintage matters in credit. if you have a pool of groups that have -- originated four years ago, the government is probably like. attachment collateral is somewhat vague, not what you would like it to be. fast-forward to toda

as pimco's bill gross pointed a decade ago. a healthy carry is necessary for banks to engage in maturity transformation. borrowing short and lending long growth at the time compared. compared. carry to the oxygen that feeds the blood at zero interest rates. he wrote the blood becomes anemic. oxygen in starved is even leukemic safe carry. he said, was essential to capitalism. so in the last year we have seen the consequences and fallout of rising of the lowest interest rates in history. $30 trillion wiped off the global bond and stock markets. last year, the crypto winter emerging and the collapse of sam bankman-fried much lauded fdx crypto exchange which an event that called to mind walter badgett dictum that all people are most credulous when they are most happy and when much money has been made, when some people are really making it. when most people think they are making it, there is a happy opportunity for ingenuous mendel. and earlier this year we saw the collapse of the silicon valley. several other banks who search for c

pimco on the other hand, the cio has told them to prepare for a harder landing, talking about the classicags, all that kind of stuff. look there have been more investors. notice that i miss picking up embracing there is a disconnect between markets and a worsening economic backdrop. let's get to our market side managing editor mark who will be taking us through the market open in about an hour's time. i have to be honest, i am seeing a lot of this, that there is a disconnect. that these gains can hold up because the u.s. economy will start to deteriorate. we really even seen that in the data? the dead in my mind has been very strong for the u.s.. >> i'm not saying this could disconnect either. i think markets are pretty logical. i think bond markets for the last time in the last 25 years were out of whack. equities have been much more active. the fact is that the jobs market is incredibly strong. the housing market is picking up again. that is keeping the consumer spending free which is the most important part of the u.s. economy. as a consumer led economy keeping company strong and profi

>> announcer: the bond report is brought to you by pimco. we misjudged them. - i love horses.rds chirping) - [soldier] we should open the gate. - let's see what charlotte thinks. - [narrator] at crowdstrike, we monitor trillions of cyber events to detect threats and prevent breaches before they happen to keep your business from becoming history. we stop cyberattacks. we stop breaches. we stop a lot of bad things from happening. crowdstrike. protection that powers you. we planned well for retirement, but i wish we had more cash. you think those two have any idea? that they can sell their life insurance policy for cash? so they're basically sitting on a goldmine? i don't think they have a clue. that's crazy! well, not everyone knows coventry's helped thousands of people sell their policies for cash. even term policies. i can't believe they're just sitting up there! sitting on all this cash. if you own a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more, you can sell all or part of it to coventry. even a term policy. for cash, or a combination of cash and coverage, with no future premium

pimco can coming -- is coming out with a much more definitive statement, calling for a harder landing. that would be globally. where do you stand on this? do you think that the u.s. will have a recessionsome we continue to get pretty solid economic numbers, and the jobs market looks so solid. >> well, obviously, if you predict a recession, eventually -- eventually you'll be right. [laughter] liz: true. >> in our history people are always predicting it. at the moment the data that we have does not show a recession anytime in the near future, but you can't predict a year or two in advance. right now we don't see a data -- we don't see data that shows a recession is imminent. as you know, normally when you have a recession, you have high unemployment. we don't have high unemployment. and consumer spending is still reasonably good. so, yes, high interest rates are high, but as the recession, probably not. i would suspect for the year we'll probably grow at about 1%, 1.2, 1.a 5% for the year, but i don't see the recession coming around the corner so quickly. liz: yeah. it doesn't look like

core pce inflation will be in the twos i think there's uncertainty about the path there we hear at pimco are optimistic we're going to see improvements because in particular housing and rental inflation has slowed down there's good reason to believe that we will have core inflation, you know, in july of next year somewhere in the twos. probably north of 2.5 i would imagine. somewhere between 2.5 and 3. and, of course, the fed, in its june projections did have core inflation falling to 2.6% by the end of next year i think that's in line with their assessment as well >> you've been inside the room, rich does it you recollect the fed that the stock market has been rallying all year? >> i don't know that i'd use the word you recollect the chair has been asked, perhaps by steve liesman his answer is look the market may be assessing a different probability than the fed does of economic slow down and the like. within range, look i think they correctly certainly when i was there focused on broader financial conditions lending standards how much does it take to take out a car loan and the like an

we are funded by these television companies and more, including pimco. ♪ >> midco support c-span as aublic service ang with these other television providers, giving you a front receipt to democracy. -- front row seat to democracy. >> c-span's washington journal, a live forum involving you to discuss the latest issues in government, politics and public policy in washington dc and across the country. saturday morning, ryan heath discusses the white house's efforts to get ai companies to commit to safety principles. the white house correspondent john gilley on the house republicans hearing on the hunter biden probe, featuring whistleblowers. and former president donald trump's potential indictment. our spotlight on podcast segment, the host talk about their five before podcast decisions in supreme court. washington journal, join in the conversation live 7:00 eastern on c-span, c-span now or c-span.org. ♪ >> american history tv saturdays on c-span2 exploring the people and events that tell the american story. at 7 p.m. eastern, the author and political activist and former world chess cham

jonathan: richard clarida, global economic advisor at pimco and former federal reserve vice chair andiend of the program. wonderful to catch up with you. i was thinking back to our conversation when pimco put out there's outlook and you talked about with the fed tolerating to point something, did you hear that from chairman powell because i did? richard: well, yeah. they have had a lot to do. ultimately, they want to get inflation to two but they understand a year from now it is running in be to use it would've been a bigger accomplishment and they can adjust rates down. they did not want to tighten too much. two point something is kicking and alive. jonathan: it is worth going over it with their telling us, they're willing to cut interest rates with inflation above 2%. how controversial might that be? richard: i think they'll do a good job of explaining. they will say as inflation falls, the fed does not cut rates, it is tightening policy because policy is the road rate. nominal rate is unchanged and inflation is falling, it would not think they'll need to add addition and tightening

on the agenda today, pimco's tiffany wilding is with us why she says the second half of the year willdifferent than first and why credit may be your best bet going forward. >> plus, house financial services committee ranking member, maxine waters joins us the house kicking off a hearing on esg investing today, and what could be a contentious fight even black rock's larry fink says the term esg has been weaponized in congress >>> and later on, why amazon prime day is not exciting one veteran. >>> it is a celebration of the weaker inflation, softer inflation read than what was expected, and that than what

if you are listening, the team over at pimco, i feel for you. tom: and you never get used to it.ld me that years ago. jonathan: i don't know how they get it, i don't know how they are doing it right now, it's tough. annmarie, thank you. prospect at the end there for a meeting between two leaders. tom: within the chinese turmoil, with -- diplomacy circles say that today is tomorrow. jonathan: tossing the sloth to apollo moments ago on the default cycle. we will get into some of that, too. equity futures are positive. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪♪ built-in security protects me from malware and forgotten passwords. i've got enough battery life to get me halfway around the globe. and lower overall costs leave more money in our budget. for more practical furniture? this was supposed to be hip. no. can you help me up? with mac, configured by cdw, a solution that works for everyone isn't just possible, it's powerful. back in the day, sneaker drops meant getting online to wait in line. a solution that works for everyone isn't just possible, now with xfinity mobile... ...we get the fastest mobi

jonathan: pimco speaking to bloomberg, if the fed does pause and they do not go again this year, it isgerous to think they are done the. we think markets continue to underestimate the likelihood for the tightening from the federal reserve. best guess, was the hike this week the last hike do you think we are open for a few more. lara: i do not want to say and -- sound like the echo chamber but we recognize the fed has to go more than they think they're going to go and i think were still in that boat. it is a bold move given how far we have move the goalpost on the fed rate cycle to say they are done. i think that is too soon. jonathan: lara rhame, thank you. we think they are done, maybe there's more to come. we can get everyone to agree on on the sweet spot in the summer. everyone is talking about a soft landing. the data is still to come this summer and may look like a soft landing but there is a believe he has with some confidence that later this year it will not look like that. lisa: it is a reason why data dependency can be dangerous for some people because if you are dependent on