dani: when it comes to pimco and asset management. pimco, 4 billion euros.stor sentiment and confidence stabilized? giulio: yes. there is stability coming through. there are also our expectations. we should see flows going back when they stabilize at the higher level. even over the course of 2023, in the first six months with pimco, we saw positive flows in july. from that point of view, i think we have achieved the inflation points. i think we will continue to see positive flows as we go into the end of the year. in the future we will benefit from a higher increase of the measure we are holding. i think it has been tough that has focused on fixed income. now, i believe you will see clearly that we were meant to pick it up as we were expecting already last year. dani: your ceos talk about part of that momentum a few months ago. part was alternatives. we don't have much time but what is your target for the alternatives business? do you see this is a new era of emco which previously had its dna in bonds? is this a push into alternatives? giulio: i would say it

pimco has a big real estate arm. i think we will position ours to try to benefit -- >> commercial real estate? >> multifamily and at some point commercial real estate. at some point in time. it's going to be a long cycle. i think you want to think about this and you also want to think about real estate lending as a way to leg into this business at the right price and with the right assets. >> china, are you on the lookout for some kind of lehman moment? are we back to watching evergrand and country garden, the first thing we do when we wake up? >> it's very hard to tell. the one thing i think we see from data is that china is in deflation and that the economy is quite slow. it's very hard to figure out what's happening to the real estate market but it's weak. how weak it is and in terms of technical default, we don't know. >> is it a risk factor for u.s. assets, the china growth? >> if the chinese growth is even weaker than what we think it is, at some point in time it would slow down the economy quite a bit and be a

there's a great point -- pimco did look day to day in terms of the moves. if you take a longer view, we had recent supply announcements and that takes time to digest. it takes time for people to react to new supply coming and lends itself to an environment of higher yield curves, steeper yield curves, so the appetite for yield at 4% is quite attractive, especially where we've come from, but you might find that less attractive in the future, especially things geared towards the longer term interest rate expectations, actually end up being higher than people expect this seems a fair value in terms of where we are right now in terms of yield again, the relative sense of where we are in yields makes it that much more attractive from an income point of view. >> is meaningful relief in shelter fansciful, overdone by the doves? >> it's a little overdone by the doves. i think you also have to look at it as a structural impediment. that will take its time to work through the system you have a natural tension that through the epidemic-inspired inflationary situation,

managing director of pimco, jerome schneider.elcome. >> thank you. >> i'm going to look at the data. i disagree with the conventional wisdom out there. all i hear all day is, year-over-year of core pce at 4.2% was in line. it might have been in line, but it was 0.1 hotter, and the entire year habis been above 4.. half of last year was above 5%. we haven't been below 4% since september of 2021. do you think inline is important, or is that awfully sticky looking? >> it's a little sticky looking. in fact, i think we have to caution investors from looking at too much of the minutiae of any one data point, whether it is today's figures with spending and income or tomorrow's figures with jobs. the reality is, that the notion of what is inflation is a complex notion. we have the fed themselves looking at several indicators, favored by the pce indicator. the one today is pushed to be a more subdued level due to price indications, coming off the peak point we've seen over the past few years. the goods pricing, services pricing, those are

pimco's tiffany wilding talking to us about the economy. she is their north american economist. coming up, home depot earnings beat estimates despite a pullback in us homebuilder sentiment. john and i were talking about that at the top. we'll explore it more in the next block. this is bloomberg. you know that tech stock we talked about picked up 500 shares. you get in at a good price. oh, yeah. schwab saved you. how much with schwab order execution advantage, you get price improvement on 96% of orders and commission free online trades. i'll take care of this. are you getting complete price transparency? expect more from your firm. schwab the better place for traders. mana has hundreds of thousands of five star reviews and counting. this was our second purchase through carvana. it was really fast this time. we traded in a car and next thing i know our new car was here. our trade in was gone. ta da! buy your car with carvana today. fabulous surroundings, but everyone's looking at their phones for financial insights from merrill. is he hailing a ride to the concert hall? no, he's m

lupin rahman, manages the emerging markets portfolio at investment firm pimco. told me what investors are looking for from the brics summit. investors are looking at a more medium—term outlook rather than having a near—term market impacts but it's important for emerging market investors to recognise is the first time brics are taking an international voice for themselves and it is reflective of some of the nervousness and anxiety that many brics countries have faced relative to the last few years with the coronavirus shock, the ukraine war, impact on food prices and a large hike in the federal reserve, so investors will see how this summit plays out. whether there will be an expansion in the membership or discussion of further lending by banks or if there is any scope of it, and currency, maybe not in the near future but perhaps 5—10 years down the line. india's lunar mission is just a few hours away from attempting to land on the south pole of the moon. if successful, india will become the fourth country after the us, the former soviet union, and china — to per

one sold to blackstone and one sold to pimco.eral months later and you are watching columbia property being one of the investors on mortgage folio -- portfolios. when you look at that space, do you think there is a lot more given the trajectory rates? >> that is a good question and a good point. it was our first foray into the space. we recognized a lot of pain in general. just really highly discounted that stock. we had private investors with an interest in buying the stock at a premium and buying the company and its assets at a premium. we were able to deliver to shareholders that 40% premium or so. over those, we unlocked $1.3 billion. >> how much more of these deals can you see? are you in dialogue with other companies that are publicly traded that could be experiencing some of the same pains? >> anyone with a real estate portfolio today, to the extent they have refinanced over the last decade or so, they are still holding those loans and will likely be facing maturity walls and pain resulting from this wild increase in rates

the pimco founder and former cio says both stock and bond markets are overvalued. bullish investors have it wrong. he spoke to bloomberg about his outlook for markets and inflation in the u.s.. >> i think there is a case for 3% inflation going forward plus or minus. i think if we got to that point the fed would consider stopping or lowering rates over the next year or so. i think that the 10 year at 415 now, it is probably overvalued and has been overvalued for a long time in terms of the lower yield. and it too high a price. if said funds actually came down, to 2.5% or 3%, the 10 year premium, the spread between 10 years has typically been about 135 basis points over a long time. if you had 100 -- add 135 basis points two 2.5% or 3% on fed funds you will get to where we are now suggesting that all of the bowls -- bulls on treasuries, 10 years, and long bonds, i think there arguments are misplaced. i think it has been overvalued for a long time. we are going back to proper valuation on longer-term notes and bonds. romaine: you understand what is going on with infla

lizzy: that was the pimco co-founder, growth scare coming up, one generative ai model says nine plusls 21. we will talk ai and all the tech stories you need to know, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ lizzy: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." our 20 one-year-old student from georgia has managed to convince nai algorithm to say that nine plus 10 -- an ai algorithm to say that nine plus 10 equals 21. thousands of hackers are trying to expose flaws and biases in general ai and it is happening at the hacking conference in las vegas for it i want to dig deeper into that story and all the other top tech stories this week with bloomberg's aggie now. let's start with you. one of the hackers said her biggest concerns here is inherent bias, especially racism. what do we know about the biases in ai more broadly? >> two things that we know as that there is a concern that ai has essentially an ability to not only replicate but also amplify specific biases in our society. we have seen it in ai image generators creating racist or sexist images and as well there is the possibility that those piec

sonali: another view was brought out by pimco.y wrote that recent data would suggest the consumer and the economy can remain surprisingly higher but it means it's not unthinkable to envision the fed not staying -- not only staying on hold announcing a further rate hike next year, do you buy that? >> i think it's possible. there is a good chance in the first quarter that the fed might decide that more work to just a more work needs to be done. maybe they deliver one or two more hikes by the end of this year but it's too early to say with the first quarter looks like. as we get through the first quarter of next year, we are more likely to see the labor market data rolling over and that will probably be a place where the fed decides to stand down. sonali: there was a conversation this week about the places you've seen the interest rate issues really take hold, the real estate sector, the consumer not quite yet. at what point do you see employment softened materially. >> probably not in the next couple of months but into next year, th

the asset managers, pimco and blackrock, talking about higher yields for longer.arry summers talking about higher yields for longer. get used to 5%, says bank of america, merrill lynch, and that, i think, is going to be a question that will dominate certainly the fall into next year if we are getting used to these yields at higher levels, can equities stomach that? can the economy stomach that? so far, it hasn't crushed the economy, but we've seen a big rise again, and last time we saw a big rise, things can break. we saw svb when we were at these levels. >> and after svb, the conclusion was, the fed might have to cut. the fed should be done. we're going to see a credit crunch. the economy's going to teeter, and i only bring that up because it shows you how much the numbers and sentiment can change in the span of five months. so, five months from now is january. >> or five weeks. >> let's not be too confident about what we say january is going to look like. >> exactly. as for this recent spike in yields, it has helped to send mega cap tech into correction territor

matt: libby cantrill of pimco. thank you for joining.oday is the day donald trump is expected to fly into georgia and surrender himself to fulton county authorities. we will be watching that. rudy giuliani flew in yesterday in a private jet. this is bloomberg. ♪ limited edition smart bed. plus, 60-month financing on all smart beds. shop now only at sleep number®. matt: this is bloomberg surveillance on bloomberg television and radio. i am matt miller with gina martin adams and damian sassower hour. in four tom, lisa and jonathan who are preparing for jackson hole. let's look at the earnings. nvidia shares beat heightened expectations. those shares are rising as well as nasdaq teachers. s&p futures are rising over 0.5%. kind of a strong rally. they are selling off the tenure today to some extent. right now we are 4.20. really 4.1998. the euro down just under 1.10. the focus this morning is going to be on the equity markets after the big beat yesterday. we are going to kick off under surveillance with that story. nvidia soaring and premark

the pimco founder joins bloomberg markets at 2:00 p.m. new york time, 7:00 in london. stay with us.it is etf friday. hedge fund veteran george noble entry into the etf industry has come to an end. isabel lee will join us. a 59% plunge, what? isabelle: it was invested in tech firms but had large bearish positions. the largest was on qqq at is up 40% year today and had a huge positions in nvidia, apple and those are rallying. they are the ones rallying market. it just didn't work out. guy: naming this thing nope maybe was the giveaway. is this maybe a black eye as well, this has been a market that continues to work for the passive and not the active. is this another example of that? isabelle: it is because a lot of people are saying it is a stock pickers market. a lot of which will funds have missed the tech rally. you never want to be to heavily allocated on something and then not have good returns and clients are questioning what happened. in the etf industry, tickers matter. nope eight be something negative but it is catchy and -- nope maybe it is catchy. kriti: does he have any ot

pimco's founder bill gross says both stock and bond markets are overvalued and bullish investors havee spoke to bloomberg about his outlook for markets and inflation in the u.s.. bill: i think there's a case for 3% inflation going forward plus or minus, and i think if we got to that point, than the fed would begin to consider stopping and maybe lowering rates over the next year or so. but i do think that the 10 year at 450 now, it is -- at 415 now is overvalued and has been for a long time in terms of a lower yield and too high a price. if fed funds actually came down to 2.5 or 3%, the 10 year term premium that is the spread between 10 years and fed funds typically has been about 135 basis points over a long period of time. so, if you add 135 basis points to 2.5 or even 3% on fed funds, you get to a point where we are now, and that suggests that all of the bulls on treasuries and the 10 year and maybe the long bond, i think their arguments are misplaced. i think it has been overvalued for a long time and we are going back to proper evaluation on longer-term notes and bonds. >> you und

as pimco's bill gross pointed a decade ago. a healthy carry is necessary for banks to engage in maturity transformation. borrowing short and lending long growth at the time compared. compared. carry to the oxygen that feeds the blood at zero interest rates. he wrote the blood becomes anemic. oxygen in starved is even leukemic safe carry. he said, was essential to capitalism. so in the last year we have seen the consequences and fallout of rising of the lowest interest rates in history. $30 trillion wiped off the global bond and stock markets. last year, the crypto winter emerging and the collapse of sam bankman-fried much lauded fdx crypto exchange which an event that called to mind walter badgett dictum that all people are most credulous when they are most happy and when much money has been made, when some people are really making it. when most people think they are making it, there is a happy opportunity for ingenuous mendel. and earlier this year we saw the collapse of the silicon valley. several other banks who search for c

coming up the pimco managing director joints bloomberg television.usiest week on the earnings calendar this quarter. travel stocks today taking a pretty big beating. jetblue slashing their profit outlook on the mastic demand. you norwegian's cruise lines painting a bleaker picture for the corridor ahead. brooke sutherland is joining us now with details. is this the moment. has that domestic travel, is it toast? >> i thing we're just coming down off the high levels we saw out of that covid period where everyone was scrambling to get out of their house. is he demand shift. this is the first summer where we haven't had restrictions on international travel. people are taking advantage of the expense of the domestic airlines, the mastic focused hotels and other elements of the u.s. travel business. a worry point for the airlines once we get into the fall because this is not typically a big time for travel and we are not seeing that business travel demand, the levels airlines would like. it creates a problem and potentially we might see some continued pres

owners reportedly pushed for sale deal could be worth two billion dollars might be a wrifrn we'll pimco argues business of improve do not support a sale right now. >> we may know, buying up hundreds of acres farmland around travis air force base llc name on paperwork report backed by silicon valley heavy waits hoffman founder of linked in, maureen pal jobs lawmakers worried chinese investors on behalf of ccp they plan to turn into their vision ideal city sustainable energy pedestrian enfriendly layout. those are some of your headlines we were wondering what was going on in northern california. >> we will keep an eye on that to see how it develops, thanks so much, house republicans are building their case for an impeachment inquiry, against president biden, i'm expecting in september house speaker kevin mccarthy joined me on "sunday morning futures" telling me what the gop priorities will be when congress returns from recess the week of september 12. >> will you bring an impeachment inquiry against president biden this september? >> if i look at all the information, we've seen able to ga

expect a recession by later this year or early next joining us now is former fellow reserve vice chair, pimco global economic adviser, rich clarida good to see you. >> hi, sarah, good to see you. >> what are you expecting tomorrow do you think we'll have a problematic number >> we're looking more at the core number. the headline number call actually pop up, because of the base effect, but a good print on core in the last report and we expect a similar print we could be wrong, but a core number in the range of 2.5% annualized, and that would certainly be better than we've been having. >> so what will that mean for september, for the fed, or november >> you know, i think the fed is truly data dependent now i think that the that they emphasized that they could pause in september, they could hike. i think they'll want to keep their options open in particular, sarah, they don't want to declare mission accomplished too soon, but they can't be tone deaf they do need to acknowledge that the data is improving, especially on the price inflation side less progress on the wage inflation side >> why don't

pimco might have spoken to her about her possibility of being a free person in a way no one had ever done before. he might have really respected her personhood in a way that is totally unique to her up to that point. so this is the spring of 1779. now if you back up to the fall of 1778 this is when abraham would whole, way out on long island first began the spy ring. he was ferrying the letters with the help of brewster a lieutenant in washington's army. but he also had some help in manhattan. 177078 in november having recruited someone he described of as a faithful friends who would give him weekly reports that were the most reliable news. and how this person was the most high and character of new york city. this very important person. now it's never proved it was robert townsend. with the way woodhull later describes robert when he becomes the full fledged spy junior i think he's talking about the same person. note this time robert is running a store in lower manhattan. he has a partner named open. more interestingly he rents a room from abraham's sister. so woodhull, riding his ho

the agency backed mortgages are places where pimco, tcw, others went to bloomberg invest saying it isdes this year facing a lot of pressures during the banking crisis, and fannie and others facing a downgrade. that is hitting the mortgage market as well. this is interesting for a couple reasons, not because of the only -- only because of the liquid bond managers that have made significant movement in the last couple months, but there is also private credit in moving into nonagency markets. that has been a move you have seen for the last several years. i think it poses an interesting question on the risk reward you are getting for nonagency versus agency mortgages. guy: how big a ban if at could there be? everyone has dismissed this as an event. sonali: it is a slow-moving one because the high yield spread has widened a little this week on the heels of this, but not fully -- not meaningfully. when you took look at this there is long-term financial tightening conditions over the next year and in the next months it gets more scary. you have the budget discussions in october. when we spok

when it comes to getting your flu shot, >> announcer: the bond report is brought to you by pimco, the glo global leader in active income. to just pop in? do you. and if you wanna even tack on a covid-19 vaccine to your flu shot, feel free! and speaking of free? our flu shots are... well... free. really? yes, really. healthier is getting a flu shot on your schedule. cvs. healthier happens together. you ok, man? the internet is telling me a million different ways i should be trading. look! what's up my trade dogs? you should be listening to me. you want to be rich like me? you want to trust me on this one. [inaudible] wow! yeah! it's time to take control of your investing education. cut through the noise with best-in-class education resources that match your preferred style of learning. learn your way. not theirs. td ameritrade. where smart investors get smarter℠. . >>> welcome back to "power lunch," everybody. concerns about china still very much front and center for investors. asia markets lower again today after china's central bank cut its one-year loan prime rate. this was the seco

fr >> announcer: the bond report is brought to you by pimco, a global leader in active fixed income.ping businesses both large and small, communities and the people who live and work there grow and thrive. we're proud to call these places home too. they're where we put down roots, and where together, we work to help move everyone's financial goals forward. pnc bank. you founded your kayak company because you love the ocean- not spreadsheets. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire >>> we're 20 out from the close, let's get back to kristina partsinevelos now for a look at the stocks she's watching. >> ushs bs is trading at an all time high after more than doubling net profits since completing its takeover of credit suisse. there are also cost cuts ahead for those working there with ubs saying it expects 3,000 jobs to be cut. shares right now are about 5.5% hi higher. >>> and shopify is jumping as the canadian e-commerce giant strikes a deal with amazon to offer its b

head of portfolio manager at pimco. focuses on the developing world about a stronger dollar? >> it is an effect for the emerging orchids, which can be quite negative. this time around, there are good reasons to think that emerging markets are going to be more shelter than before. one of the effectors is what is driving the dollar strength. soft landing lay the u.s. -- soft landing in the u.s. emerging markets is playing out in terms of the growth outlook for em is. it is slowly slight given the drive from china. lisa: i do want to touch on china. it is the element in -- elephant in the room. it seems whatever message the chinese companies were to put out there, the company is struggling to perform, even with the expectations that have been brought in to perform. how much was anticipated for the entire region and debts and equities that there like. ? >> china struggling is a concern. it is slightly different about this cycle is that it wasn't expected to be a lot more services driven. a lot more internally focused by bei

pimco's richard clarida talking about tolerating to point something in their outlook. tuning in, this is how the stage is set. about 20 minutes, will get the adp report, a jobs report from adp ahead of the real one, the headline one on friday, the official payrolls report. we are looking for a decent number on friday, $200,000. mike mckee will break down that adp report. bob michele from jp morgan will be sitting in that seat breaking down this market. s&p 500 is negative by 0.5%. live from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ my cpa told me i wouldn't qualify for the erc tax refund, so i called innovation refunds. their team of independent tax attorneys will work with your cpa to determine if your company is eligible. [whip sound] take the first step to see if your small business qualifies. ♪ >> it is never good when a rating agency says we don't like your debt as much as we used to. >> clearly it's not good news. if we look at the initial market reaction, pretty moderate reaction in the bond market. >> no country that has the strength of the u.s. is going to be affected. >

annisa lee, evp and head of apac credit research at pimco. we had the breaking news, foxconn's terry gou to seek the presidency of taiwan as an independent. stephen engle is here on the ground. we thought this might happen last week. you mentioned hong kong. give us a sense of what this means in politics and the economy. stephen: i spent the entire day with him on wednesday, including going on about to the islands within reach of xiaomin. he deflected the questions about candidacy but he's sure looks like a candidate on the two days i spent with him. and now we are just seeing on of feed off line that he has declared his candidacy now. this is not necessarily a game changer unless you are the kmt candidate. in the past, terry gou has identified as a kmt member and he ran for the kmt back in 2019 and the election in 2020 he lost, but this time is a different situation because opinion polls right now, the kmt, which is the opposition party, but they are the nationalists, the big pro china engagement, much more so than the dpp, the incumbents. t

. >> pimco yesterday, closer to the end of outbound capital regardless of who sits in the white houseome 2025. >> i actually think the russians had to counter their inflation because it's entirely possible that the economy is falling apart. the chinese may not be taking all the oil. >> we do know the ruble fell to the lowest level in over a year yesterday. >> do you think it could be the beginning -- >> total worst situation develops where the russians actually know they're at war >> i don't know. i don't know >> i think it's important. >> i do know china's real estate sector which is the linchpin of the economy continues to suffer greatly. >> do you know the blackstone of china? >> they do not appear -- >> -- >> -- bailing out some of the non-state-owned enterprise in the country. >> this could be an s&l situation where, if the chinese were smart, what they would do is close all these companies and recapitalize them. they seem to be reluctant, almost as if it's a crony capital lift environment, not a true capitalist country. i would go so far as to say a communist country. >> yes, i

it's asset manager firm pimco and around the 4500 level again. >> how about yesterday with the exceptionia, we had a really nice turn and that should -- at this time i'm afraid you seep guidance was good, we'll have the opposite. we're meandering and we're flopping and chopping. >> we haven't mentioned claims, 248. looking for 230. that might have helped the initial dip in yields after this morning. >> the fed may do something up we're going back to how are individual companies doing this? i think fang is definitely in play again apple's got to stop. apple and nvidia were the two charmed stocks coming into the quarter and am i still think that ooub people are worrying about it crashing for the nfl. i think apple and nvidia are the two you have to watch. >> people were watching nvidia's 50-day yesterday >> super microsaid they're having trouble making the chips. >> you quoted that short guy that you like about nvidia >> larry williams in. >> you were saying he says it's going to go down >> he came on the show we had chart week, which is supposed to be like shark week >> we got it >> who h

paul: that is the pimco co-founder speaking with bloomberg earlier.re a little less than half an hour away from the open in sydney, also tokyo and seoul. annabelle is here with a look at what to expect. annabelle: nikkei futures in japan just the latest was to come on pointing to a drop of .4 of 1% at the opening. important because japanese markets were separated for a public holiday, but broadly that is a picture of weakness heading into the open in just under half an hour from now, and it is unsurprising. we had the trouble trading in the wall street session even though he was futures a little bit firmer as we get trading underway in early asian hours, but also because of the real story of china' is economic weakness continuing to weigh on sediment -- sentiment. we saw the biggest outflows on fridays. since the start of their opening trade back in november of last year, so that tells you how many investors are cautious in this market, and adding to that of the concerns around country garden. we will have multiple bonds that will be suspended from tr

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pimco putting out thoughts.tion prices are going up, if inflation does not come back down then yells have to go up even more to attract capital and at the supply away. lisa: yields could go even higher and at a certain point you have to wonder when to start break something or cause restrictive policy that people been waiting for that we have not gotten because companies have already refinanced so much. if companies are able to handle rates where they are, if individuals are able to keep paying a 30 year mortgage and responsible to lock that rate further and not feel the effects in this economy that can sustain higher yields for longer? jonathan: are we effectively restricted? i always have neil's voice on my mind saying no we are not. lisa: he has a pretty loud voice in a push back against people who are saying the fed can stop right now. jonathan: the latest on china, developers warning of losses, housing prices with government backing 18 out of 38 builders reporting preliminary losses. lisa: and they said they