plosser for that.nouncer ] help brazil reduce its overall reliance on foreign imports with the launch of the country's largest petrochemical operation. ♪ when emerson takes up the challenge, "it's never been done before" simply becomes consider it solved. emerson. ♪ emerson. sometimes they just drop in. always obvious. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances. >>> welcome back to "squawk box." we're getting back to our guest host, philly philadelphia president charles plosser, but first, steve liesman is here. >>> we're launching later this morning what we call the cnbc rapid update powered by moody's analytics, a way to put dizzying amounts of data into context. we'll poll seven top wall street economists, including bark clays, deutsche bank, moody's, goldman sachs. these forecasts change with incoming data. that's way they're called tracking. it tracks data rel

ten-year yield plosser and williams are on the take today.sser with some important comments to "squawk box" in the last couple of hours. europe mostly in the green. germany up 1.5% although business confidence there down for the first time in five months. our roadmap begins with the nasdaq looking to turn around a second consecutive slide in biotechs, deterioration in what some of these momentum stocks we say. cloud storage firm box planning to raise over $250 million in an ipo and list under the ticker box. reports that manager knew of the gm ignition problems prior to the launch of the cobalt and withheld some vehicle data. >>> first up the nasdaq hoping to rebound the morning after the selloff which saw the index closing at 5 1/2 week lows and biotechs took a hit and tesla and netflix. we talked about it yesterday, and wonder if this is a longer-term dynamic in terms of leadership. >> i think that gilead comeback yesterday was significant but a lot of the others didn't. you know, we're going to be talking about box filing and i look at tha

the philly fed president charles plosser cnbc exclusively.xtreme wlb has been clouding his readings. >> the data, as you pointed out, has been very noisy. we've had storm after storm particularly on the east coast and they've got drought in the west. it's been difficult to get a decent reading on the economy. >> david cameron arrived in brussels a short while ago. he said we need to make sure that we get russia and the ukraine talking. we need to send a very clear message to russia. but their actions are unacceptable and they must expect consequences. but he is hopeful of a positive outcome, as well. the russian prime minister is not expecting action to be announced against russia today. >>> and with that back drop in brussels, let's find out what's going on in the russian capital of moscow. jim maceda has more for us right now. jim, how do you think they'll react to whatever comes out of brussels? >> well, the russians are going to react negatively to anything positive coming out of brussels. i think they're watching the eu leaders meeting t

philly fed president charles plosser will be a guest host on u.s. "squawk box" today from 7:00 a.m. eastern. you don't want to miss that. still to come, greece is turning to anger. people are marching on the embassy in beijing wanting more answers. answers. >>> kwek check of the headlines, g-7 leaders threaten russia with more sanctions. chinese families demand more answers on the missing air malaysian plane as poor weather slows down the search. >>> and u.s. cloud company box files for an ipo looking to raise around $250 million. relatives of chinese passengers on board flight mh-370 have marched on the embassy in beijing demanding more answers about what happened to the flight. this as is temperature for debris has been halted due to bad weather. sri has more details for us. >> ross, that's a -- of grief, sense of denial. all those emotions are fast turning into rage now, especially -- chinese relatives on board mh370. we have a statement yesterday from the prime minister about the plane -- and he didn't use the word crash, but he did say it did go down somewhere in the southern i

welcome back. >> nice to see you. >> when you hear charles plosser, what do you think?it's a nice intention. i think it's a laudable intention. the fed can't know, it can't predict the kind of consequences these extraordinary, unprecedented monetary actions will have. as it is, there are plenty of examples of markets that i think are distorted by low interest rates. it stands to reason that if the rate at which you discount the value of capital assets is itself suppressed, then the value of those assets will be correspondingly inflated, and we see that in biotech. we see it throughout the credit markets, junk bonds, leveraged loans and the like. you see it in real estate. mr. plosser says if the fed sees evidence of excess in the financial markets, it will react. it seems to me if the fed chose, it could see those examples of excess right now. >> but why when you look back at the last time the fed raised rates in 2004 or throughout that whole cycle, you know, stocks kept moving higher at that point. in other words, that was not the end of the rally. why is that the case

plosser, making the point to not get whipped about the numbers. can go to bloomberg.com later and hear the whole interview. when i asked him if he was prepared to use phrases like limited and gradual, his response to me about where rates -- he said, they will be a tad lower than where they were historically. we are in a-- beautiful new building, christian noyer will join me in a few minutes. a little bit later, francine usually has the privilege of talking to axel weber, the chair of ubs. i will have a word or two about japan. quite knowledgeable about japan now. >> you prepared. manus cranny, the latest on the conference. we have two great interviews and are back in just a couple of minutes. ♪ >> welcome back. you are watching "the pulse." interviewsging you from the gip conference. christian noyer joins us this hour. >> we will be live with axa weber later. >> you can make a case, had we pursued -- started at a faster pace. given that we embarked on this measure reduction, it is important to give some certainty or clarity to markets about what w

but philadelphia federal reserve bank president charles plosser says that timetable for ragz rates may be a mistake. >> if the market gets ahead of us, i've often said financial markets aren't always patient. if they get ahead of us then we'll probably have to be faced with a situation we'll have to raise rates faster than we otherwise would have chosen to do. and that's one of the great unknowns about this whole exit strategy. >> he's also forecasting solid growth in the u.s. economy over the next two years, a pace of 3% in 2015, 4% in 2016. >>> with general motors under scrutiny for what it knew about faulty ignition switches that resulted in a dozen crash-related deaths and when it knew it, some lawmakers have introduced new legislation to make sure there's better#gñ reporting of auto safety records. senators ed marquee of massachusetts and richard blumenthal of connecticut introduced a bill that would require automakers to provide more information about fatal accidents involving their vehicles and give the public better access to those reports. >>> the supreme court says that sever

in an interview with manus cranny, federal reserve bank of philadelphia president charles plosser saidt positive economic data is not enough to change the pace of the tapering. be a little bit humble about how much we can indicate how we are going to behave in the future. because things change and people change their minds and things happen. i think commitments are important. i would like us to begin moving toward a description of our reaction function. data, weng of economic found out friday that the u.s. created 175 thousand jobs last month, better than expected. but despite the uptick, one problem persists -- the continued growth in the long term unemployed. congress has failed to re-extend jobless benefits to them, a move heavily criticized by the white house. >> this does not change where i think the economy was compared to when benefits were first expiring and we said when they were first expiring we needed to extend them and congress needed to act and it was crucial both for the economy and for the family to receive the benefits. that is true today. ort -- month to month there i

talked to charles plosser. what were his main messages? good numbers that we saw on friday. he does not look at one number. he did say we should not be -- in terms of policy when it comes to moving on tapering. it would have been nice had we started at a faster pace. that is a hawkish statement. we are coming off of soft members when it comes to the wage numbers. wage rises not a great indicator of inflation. where does the federal reserve go in terms of their policy for forward guidance. unemployment rate picked up slightly and give a little bit of room to breathe. charles loss or was clear -- we need to get humble. >> we have to be a little bit humble about how much we can indicate how much we're going to behave in the future. things change and people change their minds and things happen. i would like us to move towards a description of our reaction function. >> it was a long ranging conversation. --n we got to the issue of part of what i have been reading is that rate hikes will come through in 2015. could the fed go earlier? he was very clear, go through the taper first

plosser, may be those swing votes. has any effect on the beginning of janet yellen's tenure as fed chairwoman? >> i don't think it will have any effect on the actual decision that the fomc reaches. those two fomc members as you have noted tend to be on the hawkish end. they have dissented frequently in the past but they're too far out of the mainstream to affect the decision. so it might not be unanimous decision but they're not going to influence what the fomc ultimately does today. adam: so janet yellen, like her predecessor is focused on jobs, jobs, jobs but if they move that target unemployment rate out, what kind of guidance can they give the market to keep people calm? because they want to keep things stable. >> right. think they have a pretty tough communication job as you mentioned because they're not going to put in a new quantitative threshold. they will not put in an up employment rate at 6% because they how to know to interpret what is happening in the labor market where the unemployment rate is dropping fa

charles plosser was our guest host yesterday here on "squawk box." to snap a two-day losing streak after a stronger than expected jump in consumer can confidence. the dow added 91 points to close at 16,367. the dow was up higher, triple dimt gains earlier in the session. the s&p 500 also up, adding 8 points yesterday while the nasdaq added about 8 points, as

to see plosser and fisher on board with this statement which calls for a lower normal rate down the road. maybe i'm missing something but those are two hawks signing on to what seems to be a pretty dovish remark on the future for rates. >> let's bring david kelly and jack mcintyre. jack, your reaction to the fed's statement. i don't want to say news because they've been pretty much doing what they've been doing. >> at first blush i'm not that surprised because again, we've had the view that we think the fed is going to err on the side of keeping monetary policy biased toward being more stimulated. we've got to wring out the deflation. we don't want that to kind of take hold, the disinflation. paul voelker showed us how to break inflation. we have a playbook for dpog that. i think the fed is going to err on the side of keeping rates low. and it certainly sounds like based on what steve was just reporting that's what the fed is thinking right now. >> is it status quo, therefore, for equity investors, david or is it something different that's been thrown into the mix here that would make yo

with saw that last week some of the plosser comments, where he corrected some of the forecast rates peakingnet yellen, having crafted the new communication policy of the fed, needs to get a firm hand on the communication, particularly as she is perceived by some people as having made a mistake last week. i am not sure she did. i think the market reacted more to the forecast by the fomc members. >> the result of all of that is that interest rate expectations are being brought forward. what does that mean when we are allocating our assets? >> it means that we are now focused on the business cycle. effects.s., the weather will begin to drop out of the data. , the fiscalffects drag of the last couple of years will drop out of the data. confidence will slowly begin to suspend. end oftime we get to the this year, the recovery in the u.s. will be on much firmer footing. rate expectations will begin to slowly rise. the issue is where people position. they are not yet positioned out of the short end of the yield curve. the last nine months, people have been setting the long and. -- end. when we get

charles plosser said the fed might have to quicken its pace as the economy picks up its pace. >> theres a lot to lose. then bernanke made that clear under his regime. he expended a lot of clinical capital to make sure his legacy was one of success. the he was going to save u.s. from deflation and everything the fed has done over the last few years has been to that end. janet yellen was standing by his side when i was taking place. there is almost a case where they are willing to accept a little inflation risk. there tried to generate recovery that is irrefutably solid and they can then start tapering. they will start to quicken the pace when they believe that is insight. >> you are looking through the weather. you are suggesting it is all weather-related. >> i take janet yellen at her word. see -- she seems to think there is a fairly hefty element. figures,look at the how the participation rate varied at the end of last year, i think you suspect that if we get a mediocre figure, that is not going to be enough to prompt the fed to accelerate the pace of tapering. i think she will want t

. >>> charles plosser will be appearing exclusively on "squawk box" europe on tomorrow at 8:30 a.m.rly bird or up late on the east coast, that will be at 2:30 a.m. eastern, ouch, but we would love for you to join us, naturally. >>> quick check on the u.s. futures this morning, trading slightly to the weaker side, you can see. but very, very minor losses as far as the markets are concerned. strong gains for the markets yesterday so a bit of consolidation here. jeffrey is still with us, of course. what are your expectations for the adp numbers later on today? and will it move the market? >> probably in that 150 to 175,000 range for payrolls. i don't think it's going to move the market. lately, the data has been better than expected. sp expectations got pretty low. weather has been an excuse. we almost got a free pass on the economic data here. if it surprises to the upside, i think the markets will take that seriously. stocks may rally a little bit, although they've captured a lot of those gains already. but the key here is even if the numbers come in very weak, well below that 150, 1

this comes after yesterday, the philly fed president plosser told us bad wlb has been clouding his judgment we've had storm after storm after storm, particularly on the east coast. they've got droughts in the west. it's been difficult to get a decent reading on the economy. i think it's important that we sort of take a step back, be patient here, and not overreact to what's going on because we just don't really know for sure yet. >> lindsay, when dennis lockhart says i want to keep rates ultra low for a while longer, how much is a while longer? >> well, i think it's not just lockhart, but we've heard from many fed officials that suggest that we're going to continue to remain in this accommodative stance with ultra low interest rates for the next couple of years, meaning the first fed rate hike is unlikely to come until late 2016 or early 2016. giving us ample time to get this economy back on track. >>> and what is -- okay. how will we know when the economy is back on track? is it just going to be job -- what are the numbers that the fed is going to want to see? >> i think it all comes down

. >> i was actually surprised, and we're going to have charles plosser on tomorrow. i was surprised both he and richard fisher signed onto that statement. for me that one line about not being at normal rates if the economy is normal sort of stood out. i was surprised to see them sign on. i think there's some questions. i agree with what jeff is saying to a point. jeff, i think the fed has done a remarkable job at guiding the market through '14. there's a big question about what happens in '15. i think janet yellen stumbled a little bit, but so did bernanke in june, and it's going to take a couple iterations for them to get the communications right -- >> and i think it was a very big deal when they changed the 6.5% unemployment rate target because it was a very big deal when they implemented it. this was new ground and this was something charlie evans was adamant about and he had pushed for this for a couple years for them to do the 6.5% and -- >> and they dumped it for uncertain chalanguage. we don't know what that new language means. >> it depends is basically the a

tomorrow, charles plosser, president of the philadelphia fed. how old are the twins? >> 3 1/2.if you can hang on. >> he's young. weekdays are for rising to the challenge. they're the days to take care of business. when possibilities become reality. with centurylink as your trusted partner, our visionary cloud infrastructure and global broadband network free you to focus on what matters. with custom communications solutions and responsive, dedicated support, we constantly evolve to meet your needs. every day of the week. centurylink® your link to what's next. >>> welcome back. you are looking right now at a live shot of universal studios in orlando. take a look right there, right now. >> wow. >> coming up next, we have the trading block. how much more volatility will the oil markets see now that sanction have been slapped on russia and what will your local mall look like over the next 25 years? brick and mortar stores disappear. we have that story coming up in the next half hour. back in a moment. [ male announcer ] what if a small company became big business overnight? ♪ like,

we had plosser on who also was one of the hawks. evans has always been more dovish.he -- >> the entire spectrum of voices. >> a lot of the spin. we go back to andrew in the interim. there's two reality shows that andrew, that deal with gators. one is called "swamp people." >> that's the one i've seen the promo for. >> i've actually seenen anticipate said of "swamp people" and animal planet has one called "gator boys." whose star was hurts for wr for wrestling the wrong alligator. >> there's an opening? >> you didn't wrestle any of the alligators. >> we have more tape later. it's possible. >> wow. >> one of those little ones. >> that one can do tricks. >> one of the little ones at a pet store. i'll wrestle one of those. actually i'm scared of those. >> andrew is our own resident gator guy. he's in new orleans this morning. >> there's that shot again. >> he's at the tulane corporate law conference. andrew, what do you have? >> thank you, becky. we have a legend here. i'm thrilled about this interview. we have marty lipton of wachtell lipton, the inventor of the poison

charles plosser was our guest host yesterday here on "squawk box." the markets managed to snap a two-day losing streak after a stronger than expected jump in consumer can confidence. the dow added 91 points to close at 16,367. the dow was up higher, triple dimt gains earlier in the session. the s&p 500 also up, adding 8 points yesterday while the nasdaq added about 8 points, as well. if you take a look at the futures this morning after those gains, you'll see there are still green arrows indicating a higher open, as well. dow futures indicated up by about 44 points. s&p futures indicated up by close to 5 points and the nasdaq is up close to 14 points. an rue, i'll send it back over to you. >> let's talk about the deal of the morning. facebook is now getting into the wearables market. the social media giant acquired a company called oculus vr for about $2 billion. they make virtual reality headsets. their main product called the oculus rift is primarily used for gaming. mark zuckerberg posting a statement on facebook saying after games, we're going to

also in europe this morning, philadelphia fed president charles plosser pointing at the weather for a blurry economic forecast. >> as you pointed out, it has been very noisy. we've had storm after storm after storm, particularly on the east coast. it's been very difficult to get a decent reading on the economy. i think it's important that we sort of take a step back, be patient here, and not overreact to what's going on because we just don't really know for sure yet. >> the fed beige book yesterday citing the weather's impact on the nation's economic conditions. we'll see if weather is a factor in today's collection of economic reports. at k8:30 a.m., we get weekly jobless claims. the economy is expecting a reading of 338,000 to 348,000 we saw the week before. and at 10:00 eastern time, the january factory orders report will be released. that's a decline of 0.3% is what economists are looking for there. treasury secretary jack lew will be on the hill today testifying on president obama's new budget. that's coming at 9:30 a.m. eastern time. right now, let's get to andrew with some of t