mark: here's the pmi data versus gdp. richard: as the pmi data goes, so goes the gdp.t the blue line where we had the peak in gdp and the white line where we had th peak in pmi, they peaked in the summer of 2014. as it has gone lower, the gdp has gone lower. this last little downturn that we saw in pmi with disappointed data this week might put a little bit of downward pressure on gdp in the second quarter. sort of forecast are we looking at for the second quarter gdp? many people thinking that we will see a rebound like we have seen in previous years. and the the market people who put together this pmi data say that given the slowdown that we have seen in hiring and ervice the slowest since 2009, that might mean we gdpdown hiring and then growth will not be nearly as strong as what we are looking at , which is the atlantic gdp forecast. mark: explain. the atlantic gdp forecast is considerably stronger than the zer 0.7% the market is common for. this represents the dilemma for the fed. they have got to look at this when they make the decision next month and in july as

some index of new orders in the pmi stood at 51. export orders and imports showing the external picture still weak. so, employment showing factories are cutting workers. so, there are some clouds on the horizon. angie: thanks. checking other headlines right now. the casinos are showing increased signs of stability. its operators shipped their focus to attracting more casual gamblers. we are expecting a dip of 13%. gaming revenue dropped only 9% to $2.2 billion. as casino operators have been encouraged to diversify. halliburton and baker hughes is said to be prepared to call off their $28 billion merger with reports that an announcement could come today. the deal has met stiff antitrust resistance from regulators in the u.s. and europe. deadline at the end of april was set. if terminated, how -- halliburton would have to pay $3.5 billion in fees. oil producers are considered a deal to freeze output but mark mobius says there iso need. some analysts are warning oil mady tumble to $30. but mobius is betting prices will rise. >> i do no

maybe this is showing up in the pmi numbers now. have seen instability in the manufacturing side at least. guest: you are actually looking at manufacturing pmi, they are above 50. but that is still softened, just like nonmanufacturing. rishaad: that is right. that is fundamentally the problem. guest: are they addressing it at a local level. even on the national level. they gave out a lot of credit. but ifere new orders this is not going to new orders, where is the credit going? financing, liquidity, which companies would reflect of the bad situation we are talking about. rishaad: and this is how it goes. in your research, when we look at banks, people are saying, it is not as bad as all that. you are saying that that does not reflect what is going on. and we ask the question, when is a nonperforming loan or a bad one, actually about -- a bad loan? guest: we are a little more lax when recognizing npl. the number should be quite higher. very simply, you add in npl and they are at 5% already. standards are being complicated now. they a

mind it isa, keep in getting the first jab at pmi. you have a bunch of earnings, china construction bank, securities. i will get more for you on that. in the meantime, have a look at dollar-yen. equities are on their way up. oil is seeing pressure despite dollar weakness. have a look at this. dollar-yen closing in on 106. .02 -- that was the low so far. goldman sachs putting out a note for their clients. the gist of it is dollar-yen, near-term will continue to fall come the boj is forced to in and come in strong meaning more stimulus, not intervention. that is on the finance ministry. level right now. a lot of money is going into the japanese currency. we are looking at index futures. down 150 points. weakness isollar the issue. -- look at the euro, up above 115 for the first time since this summer. washigh of -- in august 115.12. the rally there. aussie dollar is holding right now. 76.55. it is hard to call. the rba will be online in about two hours time. gold is doing this. 1300 -- $1300 yesterday. we are still up about .25%. we saw

german pmi of 55.2 and the manufacturing pmi rose to 52.4. than the survey of 52 even. pmiices and manufacturing coming out ahead of the forecast. here you see a euro-dollar trade. euro gaining some strength. german pmi coming up and sort of balancing a long a level here. i've got a chart of pmi over the last two years. we've been hanging around this 55 level. let's get to our top stock stories with nejra cehic. nejra: bayer first and foremost, we saw this stock drop on thursday after bayer confirmed it had made an offer for monsanto. we got the financial details today. 37% premium to monsanto's closing price on may 9. we are talking about a $62 billion deal, the biggest ever takeover by a german company and it has pushed bayer shares to the lowest in more than 2.5 years today. it is down 3% at the moment. covestro.ooking at still has a stake in this plastics business. is it going to sell that? sell toe could bayer finance this all-cash offer for monsanto? finally, i'm looking at ryanair. company forecast that earnings growth will slow this y

pmi data, march composite, 53.1 that coming via news wires. composite pmi 53.1. pmi forecast was forecast was 53. coming in slight above forecast, not by much. the eurozone april composite pmi 53. again, i'd say these numbers are pretty much in line with what was to be expected. >> services pmi topped soft 53.1, 53.2. the benefit of world prices feeding into these number here's. >> the forecast, precisely. the pmi very much weaker than anticipated. >> absolutely, yeah. >> we've seen that in here in a couple sessions from europe, as well as out of asia. with a look what's going on here. we're caught bit flattish. stoxx at 600. main european markets indicating precisely that trend here this morning. we're just treading water just a little bit. we had some significant moves, once again, in our asian markets overnight which we'll get to in a second but here in europe, ftse just hanging on to a little bit of a red picture, 61.71, the miners under pressure given the data out of asia. in talking with the miners, just glancing at the movers here. we continue to see signi

the european pmi has moved sharply.k: because manufacturing has turned negative. >> it has but even services are lagging. pmi started to. point a little bit up. for a data dependent fed, they want to see that trend continue. the problem for all three of the central banks as opposed pmi's are too close to 54 comfort. pound may notthe see a sharp snap back even if the u.k. remains in the eu, why is that? >> what's interesting is that we have actually seen a reasonably sharp snap back in the pound already as the polls have started to turn. risk reversal the curves, you can see the negativity in the pound really starts to drop as we get just past the referendum date. it does not really bounceback 6, 12, 18 months after that and that is the worry that although the near-term volatility drove it lower, it's not's bouncing back shortly afterwards. mark: thank you so much. the close is next, stay with us. ♪ mark: live from london and new york, you are watching the european close. they will finish higher, up by 1.2% after falling

so the manufacturing pmi edging up to51.7%. they're cutting their prices to the second deepest rate since 2010. factory growth weakening in april despite the fact that we've had pretty heavy discounting going on. the euro dollar 1.14. we were looking at a much lower euro dollar. we have a guest in a half hour's time so we can get more into what's going on notice currencies at that point. >>> let's move on with the pmi data. japan's final raidirating shows industrial sector contracting with the earthquakes hitting manufacturing output. and in china, the official pmi fell slightly short of expectations. here in europe, our european equity markets mixed again. that's why you're looking at a gray spot on the actual map. but the xetra dax a little higher and the ftse lower. the nikkei off by a further 3.5%. air france having appointed a replacement for ceo. the replacement is familiar with the new firm after sitting on the board of directors of air france during the late 1980s. shares in the airline are off by more than 11% so far t

pmi manufacturing versus the euro zone manufacturing pmi.line is the spread psi in the ftse. here is a common theme where the u.s. economy has been slow. its services has been better. you still have an outperformance. this blue line says that the s&p its europeang counterpart. i think this is interesting because the services story, more and more of u.s. companies derive their money from services. for. the first time since 2007, 50% of earnings come from services. vonnie: is this a measure of delusion than? oliver: that is a good question. either investors realized that driving revenue from services or they just like u.s. stocks. 4, subsection three of the battle of the charts rulebook says that you are not allowed to change your charts at the last minute. it's been quite a day in the sun. ,ince mining stocks bottomed which took out the stoxx 600 up by 60%, taking its valuation to roughly 16 times estimated earnings to 30 times estimated earnings on april 20, what was interesting about that was, the same period, the valuation for the stoxx 60

pmi down from 52.2 the previous month.ouncil said more needed to be done to promote private investment growth. it is said chinese authorities are right to tackle the commodities market. they are pushing up prices as well as volumes. the upswing has prompted exchanges to tighten laws, and in some cases, cut trading hours. the aussie dollar jumped more than expected after trade data, thanks to increased exports and rising iron ore prices. they have seen the deficit shrank to 2.2 billion aussie dollar's, down from 3 billion the month before. donald trump is the last man standing. his only republican rival john kasich put the presidency. -- quit the race for the presidency. many republicans have said that they will not support from. kasich: i've always said that the lord has a purpose for me, as he does for everyone. as i suspend my campaign, i have renewed faith, deeper faith that the lord will show me the way forward and fulfill the purpose of my life. brazilian president dilma rousseff has suffered a new blow after a senate

pmi is below u.k. pmi and below european pmi. we know that br-exit is weighing down on the u.k.racking sideways for quite a while. the reason it's a big problem is that it really leaves gdp and gives us a hint towards where the going. if this trend continues i think it will way down forever. guy: if you had to guess -- matt, go ahead? matt: we are still above 50 and i wonder, richard. the trend is downward. do you expect a contraction? richard: direction of travel looking from where this was in the most recent cycle in the 2014 summer, we might be headed in that direction and that is the worry. and it is getting traction is moving a little bit higher. how is the oil data? richard: a lot of the things people are concerned about is the low oil price and it seems to have been staunched. economies importing look at consumer spending, certainly higher oil -- if it pushes too high -- becomes a tax on consumers and that has to have effect on consumer spending. right now, if oil stays where it is it is the sweet spot. much higher or lower, and i think we have an issue. guy: the fed? the

china's official factory gauge has manufacturing pmi coming in at 51.8.w the average forecast. the dividing line between a contraction and expansion. that makes the case for restraint when it comes to additional stimulant. releasing a flood of cheap credit. calling off their plan to $28 billion merger. meeting stiff antitrust resistance in both the united states and europe. attorney general loretta lynch has called to the termination of victory. say no merger is too big or too complex to challenge. it is a range day out there in the stock market. david: what is typically not exactly the best month for equities, may. i go to the equity markets tummy tuck about that business survey. monthly indicators coming out right now. seeing a drop from the previous month. these are april numbers. business confidence in the region. a lot of that has to do with the strength of the australian dollar. indicators down led by japan. south korea is having a typical down day. a lot of that has to do with the japanese yen and its relationship to the dollar. let me get you the

i will be looking at chinese manufacturing pmi. it is pmi day all the way around the world.china is particularly crucial on this front, affecting emerging markets and its own economy. oliver: let's not forget about u.s. manufacturing either. spending tomorrow at 10 a.m. eastern time. >> hyundai tomorrow. scarlet: that's all for "what'd john: i'm john heilemann. mark: and i'm mark halperin. "with all due respect" to those who thought they could come back late from the holiday weekend and be late for donald trump's press conference -- mr. trump: are you ready? do you have your pen? this sleazy guy. voter cycles? no. jeff sessions. crazy bernie. lebron. --t adds up to -6 million- well, let's the that adds up to 5 million, $6,000. bob dole is a fan of mine. bob

we are just getting manufacturing pmi for april. it is falling below 50.han expected at 49.2. two crucial thing. pmi manufacturing for the months of april, a, worse than expected but we are also seeing a contraction for manufacturing. there has not been that much movement on pound. 1.4738.y at markets lower this morning. let's head straight to the bloomberg for an asset check. mark: european stocks are falling for a third consecutive day. down by 1.15%. manufacturing gauge out of china which contracted as you just said did the u.k. manufacturing gauge, setting the tone today. this is the stoxx 600 banks index. paribas,gainer is bnp posting a surprise increase in first-quarter profit. a decline in provisions for bad loans. hsbc is lower. one of the better performing banks today. first-quarter profit rose more than estimated. stuart gulliver paring back costs. down.d commerzebank said first-quarter profits fell a greater than estimated 64%. market turbulence eroding earnings. bottom of the pile is commer zbank, 8.5% lower today. -- halflf market profit halve

april services pmi. it fell to 52.3. we were expecting a figure of 53.5. growing because any figure above 50 means expansionary mode. 51.9site pmi falling to and services falling to 52.3. there's concern about brexit. maybe some investment project being held back until we have that referendum on june 23. let's get to the bloomberg first word news with nejra cehic. nejra: private gauge of services in china slips. 51.8, downe in at month..2 the previous the council said more needed to e to promote private investment growth. lowe inherits the post with diminished interest rate ammunition after the central banks east policy to a record low to cushion the end of a mining investment boom. lowe was appointed deputy governor in 2012 when siemens described him as an exceptionally economist. the u.k. is holding elections today in what has been dubbed super thursday. the election of a new london mayor is getting international attention. on top of that, votes are taking place for the scottish parliament, national assembly of wales, northern ireland assembly, and 124 c

services in the pmi wasn't great and the unofficial manufacturing pmi was worse than the official numberseye on china with the data over the last week not great. >> i'm watching oil, that's the key to this market in terms of direction. futures are higher along with the price of oil. trying to digest two big stories that are moving the oil market this morning. on one hand we have slight concerns with the wildfires raging in canada. then the other regime shift in terms of cabinet reshuffling in saudi arabia, what might that mean going forward? it doesn't seem like a lot in the near term as far as the research this morning, but we'll ke keep an eye on what saudi is doing. >> we are still settled around 45, much better than earlier this year. futures at the moment are pointing to a higher open, about .40% to .50%. the nasdaq and dow saw two weeks of declines expected to bounce back from that. that is it for "worldwide exchange." "squawk box" is coming up next. now you can, with the luxuriously transformed 2016 lexus es and es hybrid. ♪ and that a tired dog is a good dog. [ dog barking, crashi

the breakout number is the steel pmi.teel pmi is showing a huge surge at the same time the options market is still going a little crazy and maybe we are seeing a bit of a pickup in demand in terms of housing market, but not anything that correlates of the pickup we are seeing. how realistic is all we are watching here? what will the chinese do next? it will be pivotal for this puzzle. >> absolutely. the structural rebalancing of the chinese balance sheet -- china's strength has become its own ability. china tonk is helping weather the global slump posts 2007, through a mega investment cycle we are now dealing with the hangover. what china is doing at the moment is trying to do leverage this private sector debt mountain that the same time that is pushing on the public sector and trying to keep gdp at cyclical levels. the structural rebalancing and recovery -- it is a recipe for a bumpy ride. we will probably see more china devaluation and a weaker yuan. guy: wow. so were not done yet. thank you very much for your time and

most markets in asia are trading for the first time at the pmi data. the economic is slightly better at the moment, up .1%. a lot of the weakness is a bit misleading just looking at this. lots of the weakness is coming through here in hong kong. have a look at these financials. insurers are actually getting sold off at the moment. a lot of this comes out to one. if i coulding pict, find it along my big movers. this indicates shares getting sold up after aig sold their billion.$1.25 they sold a fairly hefty stake there. they reached $1.25 billion. the price the sale toward the lower end of the range. mean, that is one market story. but when you look at the regional benchmark, a lots of it has to do with the financial sector. asia is looking like this and at the moment, most stocks are on their way up. most volumes are fairly light. .5%.alia is up south korea is up and for the this group is attempting to get out of the day-to-day slump we have seen in the saudi and asia equities. we have three days to go, but it is a flat day here in asia so far. manus:

chain's pmi -- china's pmi slipped, missing estimates.res contractions and weakness in an economy weighed on by overcapacity and weak external demand. chinese policymakers are balancing the need for ongoing stimulus while seeking to avoid propping up zombie companies with excess capacity. let's bring in the chief economist at standard chartered, who joins us now from frankfurt. good to have you. is that your key concern around china, the level of debt we are seeing in the chinese business community? achievenk china will its targets this year. talking about 6.5% at -- i think they will exceed that. sector, mainly reflected in the pmi indicators, is soft, and it's going to continue to be soft, but we have to big knowledge that the chinese economy is rebalancing. if we focus entirely on manufacturing, we will get an overly dreamy picture of china. consumption is strong and services are strong, and those different sectors will pick up a lot of the slack caused by the manufacturing sector. but overall, i think the chinese will be able to achie

we had hawkish fed commentary, dovish commentary out of japan and pmi numbers out of the u.s. and europe that were a touch weaker than expected. the dow is up 26 points, the s&p up a fraction of one point, the nasdaq up 16 points. check out shares of monsanto. german drug maker bayer bidding for the company. $122 a share, all cash deal that would be worth $62 billion. monsanto up 5.25%. and tribune shares dropping after rejecting gannett's offer. you can see tribune down nearly 16%. >>> top tech fund looking for china to boost its portfolio in the second half of the year. brett singerland will join us next. >>> the growing influence of snapchat. the company has two million daily views more than facebook. bob peck will join us. >>> and the ceo of interactive brokers on the changing landscape of the brokerage industry and impact of financial regulation. a fair price, quality service, and that horrible smells are really good at hiding. oh, boy. there it is. ♪ ohh. ooh. [ gags ] so when you need a house cleaner or an exterminator, we can help you get the job done right, guaranteed

the manufacturing pmi is white line. it doesn't really matter -- let's do this again. here -- it's the difference between expansion and contraction. it is that direction causing concern here. the u.k. economy is near stalling because these measures indicate a growth rate. alix: that does not feel good if you are in the u.k.. --n earnings coming in revenue coming in a touch light, just under $1 billion. the lightnessying in revenue is because of a decrease in their macau operations offset by .7 increase. by macaus live and die here. macau hurting them here and a stock is up 3% after hours. scarlet: square also reporting. this company founded by jack dorsey, boosting its sales forecast. now looking for as much as $635 whereasin revenue earlier, they had anticipated $620 million. before, they were looking for anywhere from a range of million dollars to $12 million. basically just under $10 million. that is the outlook here. oliver: i want to bring in the cumberland advisor chairman and earnings officer. corporate america showing off it like in thet, energy sector, citing

we had some pmi figures.had a great chart made up for you. , if youook at pmi's look at services, it is that little bit softer. how do you model brexit? >> in the short-term the way we look at it is a big rise in uncertainty. we can correlate uncertainty with gdp growth. there is a clear correlation -- that is how we look at the short-term impact. in the event of brexit, the u.k. is more likely not to enter a session within two years. in the longer term or look at things like trade and migration and flows. in the long-term we expect by the year 2030 that the u.k. gdp smaller what it would be if the u.k. has stayed in the eu. very similar to what the treasury has published. francine: then give me a sense of -- again, what are the implications of brexit -- it seems that for the moment all of this uncertainty has been played out on pounds. will it also play out on gilts? >> i think less of it, yes. before we see a risk premium in that. short term. longer-term, if there is a big rise in the long end of the gilt c

eurozone pmi manufacturing service figures. a touchhanged at 53.1, below estimates, but not by much. manufacturing pmi fell to 51.5, also lower than expected. we were expecting 51.9. remember, anything above 50 still means we are in expansion, however we are seeing a little bit more of a fall than was expected. this is the picture for euro-dollar. we've had a lot of currency moves, as a lot of central bankers were in japan. you can see euro-dollar 112.14. this is. european stocks falling. .19.e oil, 48 it data briefly sink below 48. emerging-market shares extending the rebound we saw on friday. i also want to show you bayer, making an unsolicited $62 billion all-cash offer to acquire monsanto, as shareholders worry about overpaying and valuation. let's get to the first word with nejra cehic. nejra: thanks. the u.s. economy should be solid enough to merit an interest rate increase this year, and the central bank won't cave to political pressure to refrain from tightening during a presidential election. the san francisco fed will

jobs, china pmi, watching that as we count down to the next fed decision.ead on "first up", next. ♪ singapore,14 a.m. in the stories making headlines around the world. the increasingly bitter debate about britain and europe is threatening to split the ruling conservative party. leading campaigners for brexit have accused david cameron of breaking promises on immigration and speculation is mounting about a leadership challenge about the june 23 referendum. says david cameron must accept that his 2015 election pledge to cut immigration has failed. relations between iran and saudi arabia have worsened, iran announcing it will boycott the hajj this year. the rivalry has deepened since iran's nuclear deal with the west and saudi arabia next q shouldn't of a prominent shiite cleric. president described his salary as insulting. notes from a recent meeting say he was offered $2 million a year. he said he did not accept the proposal, saying he found it an insult. the figure is less than the 3 million that was paid to the last president. powered by over 2400 journali

lenovo pulling down the tech index. 1.6%, despite a drop in the private gauge manufacturing pmi.seeing something fresher. streetst asia, eighth day of declines. you group everything together, and a lot of what has happened in malaysia and in singapore. big markety, a event in the next hour or so. that's what we are doing as far as all the others are concerned. it fell last weekend we have slowly made our way back up. it puts us in the context of how closely watched this position will be coming from the reserve bank of australia. ♪ emily: this is "bloomberg west." i'm emily chang. if you've ever played a video game, you owe a debt of gratitude to nolan bushnell, who cofounded atari in 1972, and created cult classics like "pong," which laid the foundation for the booming electronic gaming industry as it exists today. his biggest focus now is weaving games into the classroom, trying to make education as addictive as an atari game. nolan bushnell joins us live from the milken institute global conference in l.a. brain rush, you say, can teach academic disciplines 10 times faster than

let's turn to what is happening in china, fresh pmi data out of the country. it is amid a probable recovery. bloomberg correspondent stephen engle in hong kong is crunching the numbers. so much talk about the chinese economy stabilizing. does this data tell us that is what we are seeing? what are we getting out of these numbers? en: what we are getting is an establishment of the trend. we are beyond the anomalies we get with the lunar new year's holidays when pmi went up. in february, they were down. factories were closed for the weeklong holiday. what we are seeing now, 50.1 in april for the manufacturing pmi is not going to blow anyone out of the water and say, we have a sustained v-shaped recovery. what it does show is this is sustainable. this is a managed stabilization by the government. this is what they have wanted to see, but there are still some clouds on the horizon, of course. new orders, fairly robust, coming in. the sub indexes 51. new exports and new imports fell in april. that is a worrying sign. also, employment showed some weakness, showing th

i like to welcome my chicago pmi guest, alice andres france.rt on this report, isn't there? by the way why does this list look peculiar? i went in order 37.9 is the lowest level, 50 is expansion, contraction all the way to the highest. but inventories is key, why do you think? >> well, rick, this inventories number is the lowest since november 2009. and purchasers don't like it when these levels get into the 30s. it's just too low. the big deal here, rick, is that companies are having trouble getting their needed supplies from their suppliers. and that is directly reflected in your supplier deliveries. it's very long. it very much an expansion at 57.8. the longest since october 2014. we're hearing things like getting production material, it's 25% longer. if you need capital equipment, it's a 10% longer wait. and so as a result you're not getting your needed goods to produce your widgets and so you have to dip into your inventories that you have to fill orders. >> compelling story before we went on, off camera if this was a demand story, in othe

just a few minutes ago we did get services pmi for april. disappointed compared to forecasts but also the lowest since february 2013. when you look at the weakness in the pound do you think it's more down to data disappointment like this morning or simply about brexit. >> the combination really. but the dominate theme is really brexit. last week we did see polls indicating that the stay in vote is in the lead. most recent polls were actually suggesting the opposite. and if anything one risk surrounding all of that. we have elections for a new mayor in london today. and may be the end of the honeymoon between johnston and cameron. they are trying to support their candidate but really tomorrow things are back to square one. and i think that the brexit risk should not be underestimated. we have long to go until the actual vote so things could still go either way. our central view is still that brexit will be avoided. that is why we are bullish. that set. the pound, we want to be cautious on the bound. weaker data doesn't help the pound at the m

shanghai responding more to the currency move than to the pmi data.e face of that late cut. >> as for early european trade, a mixed picture, eye on that weaker chinese manufacturing data. also on earnings on the banks you say are rallying, the german dax down 1.2%. bnp paribas up 2. hsbc initially was up a couple percent when results came out. it's now flat. commerzbank and ubs both down significantly. >>> one thing that the european stocks may be hating this morning say stronger euro past 116 past the dollar. that weak dollar taking its to, strengthening currencies everywhere which is bad for exporters perhaps why germany is getting harder than the rest. oil is also lower. wti price down 0.6%. it was down even lower about half an hour ago. perhaps some recovery into the u.s. session 44.51 is the price. story is the currency market you're seeing a weak dollar notably it wasn't the japanese and the yen. there's the dollar yen, 1.0578. weak dollar across the board should be helpful to u.s. companies reporting tougher results on the back of the u.s. doll

again, the manufacturing pmi, the poll was for 51.2.nstead, we got a print of 49.2 for the month of april. >>> speaking of data, in china, the chinese factory activity shrank for the 14th consecutive month. and the private survey show a slump in demands pushing economies to shed jobs at a higher rate. >>> the rba, the reserve bank of australia cutting its key cash rate by 25 basis points to 1.75%. this happening ahead. budget announcement and the looming announce. sri jegarajah joins us out of singapore. that was a surprise, sri, are they cutting more now? >> that's a big question. actually in the beginning off of the easing cycle here and now the markets like this 25-basis point cut and week lows. a six-month high. if you look at the australian benchmark, 5053. aussie dollar got crushed as well. at one point we were down by 1.5% against the greenback. and i wanted to talk about china as well, you touched on this, lou. we saw the 14th straight month, that's what the private manufacturing surveys told us for the month of april. the marke

as well as chicago pmi and consumer confidence for may.nd wednesday, we got ism manufacturing and the beige book. thursday, adp employment report. friday, it is the big one, non-farm payrolls along with ism services. that will be a big one. >> absolutely. i think it's interesting that the last couple weeks very much focused on fed speak as opposed to the data. there's been some data, but this week, back on the data side with the jobs numbers. >> with the expectations, it seems it just rose overnight with yellen making the promise that she did, that the fed is justify jumping. >> absolutely. the hike expectation coming forward, at least one this year, possibly two. when they will start will be the key. that jobs number will be important. there is also some more fed speak, of course, and speculation will move markets. james bullard speaking at a conference in seoul. he said labor markets appear to be, quote, well prepared for a hike but didn't specify a date for the move. >>> stocks to watch, jazz pharma is buying celator for $1.5 billion. e

i think that we didn't hear enough people talking about the weak pmi in china.ommodities in a tail spin, and the currencies have been the story of overnight. i mean, the yen around 105, and you have euro up around 1115, and these are dramatic moves -- 115, and these are dramatic moves and they have the market all akilter, and tokyo is closed the equity market, and it is going to be remained through thursday for golden week. that is going to be add iing th volatility through the week. >> and is the indication of japan the markets are going to be exhausting the boj's efforts? >> well, i think it is. because there is no way with the markets that are closed there, there is no way to release some of the tension. if the yen keeps going up, so people will then have to take positions in other markets around the globe, the old, if you can't sell when you want to sell, sell what you can sell, and that is going to have a negative effect and perhaps bring up the volatility. >> we had the period when china was driving the markets, and oil was driving the markets, and now abo

we have a widespread weakening in the pmi, construction ring -- construction.ple are getting worried about the upcoming referendum. the way i see it in terms of sterling, i see it as a binary event. -- i thinkio sterling strength is going to be big for the second half of 2016. one, it is undervalued. secondly, i suspect that we are going to have quite a rapid repricing of the bank of england rate hikes. having said that, if we get a leave vote, i think we are going to have a big pressure on sterling, largely because since the eurozone debt crisis, the u.k. has been a safe haven for a lot of portfolio flows. these things do tend to reverse quite rapidly. they're going to put a lot of pressure. manus: obviously, the suggestion is that we are undervalued. the second half traded higher. i have a poll for you. the british bulldog. this is our own brexit poll. we thought it was 20%, up to 22%. look. if sterling is undervalued and if the poll is correct, what is the upside on the table? what is the upside on euro sterling? well, if we do get a remake vote, i think eas

tom: we are there with the pmi indexes. having overrated? >> at this point, it is the most reliable, most accurate of all the manufacturing surveys and it is very important to see this threshold because we stumbled in the first quarter before we pulled back, spending on --uctures, all the things tom: we will touch on this. michael mckee is scheduled to join us. right now we have to turn to japan. john herman, let me stop with you. is abenomics a failure? >> i don't want to say that because i work for the largest japanese -- tom: [laughter] >> levy just say this. -- lets me just say this. -- parent company in tokyo we have the largest takedown of every bond auction in japan and we have the largest -- it means anyone who wants to buy on jgb has to come to us in these things have rallied remarkably. want to own jgb's, as do, theple want to negative interest rate -- what is so surprising about this it just set off a big risk aversion flight to safety in japan which is what i don't think they anticipated. everyone there wanted to own anything tha

all are the pmi's, they been coming down. got manufacturing a negative territory.oving in a negative direction. theou take a look at surprise index in terms of the data, the surprises have been falling as well. we're not below zero for quite some time. the u.k. economy is losing momentum. a combinationis of things for stub there is element of brexit insecurity. couple of month ago, i would have said that was effecting business decisions. i think it now is. it is also a bit of the global economic slowdown. we just had to very strong growth from our main market out in europe. so, i would be surprised if this is just a little bit of a blip in terms of growth. we have to put these growth figures in context. 2% growth, which we have had in the recovery so far is really quite a good for the u.k. the new normal world that we have. been a temporary dip, i'm much rate will be sustained to the year. guy: the pound has come down. within the eu,in the expectation amongst the foreign exchange is that we would see fairly rapid appreciation. we would see an effective tightening b

that pmi number was a little bit weaker than expected in april, but there are some encouraging signs of stability and china. that is why we have seen up pickup come through on the share market. we are seeing the hang seng down by 1%. you can see a lot of those property stocks coming under pressure. in korea, it is up by 0.4%. consumer prices and south korea. they rose 1% last month from a year earlier which was pretty much bang in line with what the market was looking for an having a look at some of the stocks we been watching, all about the banking sector heidi was talking about hsbc with shares in hong kong up by 1.4%. through with ae miss on its first half numbers but investors seem to like the fact that the new ceo is trying to cut costs. anna: lots to focus on in the asian section. let's bring in our guest for the rest of the hour, jeremy stretch head of the imperial bank of commerce joins us on set. it's very good to see you this morning. we had some official pmi data over the weekend and the early hours of this morning the manufacturing number. is it a cause for concern or do

pmitruction pmi services and this goes back to 2013. from the data how things have been worsening. maybe it is you keeping in the at leisure trend alive. we've seen them announced just after the close yesterday and earlier chelsea football club. they're going to get a payment as a result. italy of the only about upgrade their forecast yet again. he wanted to see fewer partnerships with sports teams. it fails to qualify for the european championship. getting some grumpy looks from some people here in london. this partnership is back 10 years. it could affect the earnings. manus: a lot of political issues also affecting the economic outlook. >> a host of headlines coming out of that meeting. during countdown today. he was concerned about brexit many european voices are concerned about that. we will also be hearing from the german interior minister on the migration issue. there have been tensions at the top of german politics about how to deal with the migrants. plus get a host of earnings reports coming along. it is a thursday so why not?

is pmi someone could kill the pop-up on my computer screen.5, most of these lines were below the 50 line signaling they were in contraction territory. but now they are above the 50 line signaling expansion. korea, mostaiwan, of them are above the 50 line which means the majority of asian countries are growing again. the trend is higher. a good time for the global economy. interesting. i see that japan is the worst performer. mark, take it away. mark: joe has never done six lines. that is a first. good for you. vonnie, sometimes i like to look in the rearview mirror. looking at the best-performing assets and april. in at number four, local bond market in egypt according to bloomberg world bond. the return of 6.5%. number three, ukraine equities index with the return of working .6%. -- 14.6%. in the last 12 months, it was down 42%. this was the worst performing benchmark over the last 12 months on the world bond indices. zambia'sr two, best-performing currency in the last month got a return of 14.1%. number one in april, the best returning asset

today, we will get manufacturing pmi data. at 10:00, we get eurozone manufacturing data.some before that for spain, italy, france, and germany. onwill be keeping an eye those numbers and any reaction we see in euro-dollar. right now, pretty much unchanged. itwill be keeping an eye on after the data. manus: no conversation with my european colleagues would be complete without brexit. what is the latest? >> a poll over the weekend show 46% back brexit. 43% favor the eu. the thing is, some of our editors at bloomberg are saying, do not make too much of a big deal about this. online polls show a major divide in phone polls. our own number cruncher has it still at 80% stake, 20% leave. manus: thank you very much, nira. protestersres of breaching the supposedly secure green zone raised eyebrows around the world and raised questions about the iraqi government. andrew joins me now. a warm welcome. ours to consider the implications. talk me through the economic consequences. a lack of stable government has major consequences for iraq. >> it is not great. this is the fortified admi

we saw that in yesterday's pmi. a big rise in the prices paid index.ralia, they are worried about disinflation and the possibility of deflation because they are worried about what is happening with the chinese economy and the import much more. there is a question around the world of where we go and central-bank are reacting differently. francine: right, but if you look at the world -- australia cuts, who's next? the boj is something on our minds. if you look at china, they can also ease. and then you have india and south korea. mike: the problem is is each country has its own problems. new zealand wants to wait because they do not want to get too far out ahead of the curve and slow their economy or feed inflation. you have got the chinese who do not want to do that, either. they are holding on. at this point, nobody knows what the japanese are going to be able to do since their economy is still struggling. tom: michael mckee, thank you so much. we will have much more on this through the morning. now an important interview. francine: germany's second-la

bob: two thirds of the manufacturing pmi for below 50.ing manufacturing activity in two thirds of the country and it was more than that on a weighted basis when you have the u.s. and china both the low 50. in the data we got out over the last 24 hours or so, you got about two thirds that are now above 50. not dramatically. china is above. u.s. is above. if you standouts. france suffering from whatever france is suffering from. they have been an underperformer in europe. we have gone from a global manufacturing sector in the latter part of last year into early this year that was contracting. commodity prices were weakening. industrial metals prices were weaker. in the last two to three months, we have seen gradual improvement in now you have manufacturing expanding. manufacturing was never going to be the strongest part of. the services sectors have been stronger. the services sector continue on their expansion. you now take manufacturing from a modest contraction to a modest expansion. mobile growth is accelerating. -- global growth is ac

pmi all of that on global assets. >> yes, global assets in stocks as well.really affecting the u.s. in today'session. up very slightly off the lows of the day. volume is heavy today. expecting large-cap stocks across different industries. from financials that have been mostly moving higher when we see yield going up. the fact they are going down today is putting pressure on ,ompanies like bank of america jpmorgan, exxon mobil, microsoft participating in a selloff we had -- we are seeing in technology. the declinesnt out in automakers, which came out with the u.s. monthly auto sales numbers today. general motors sales falling more than anticipated. even toyota, which beat estimates in auto sales last month is falling as we see concerns about global growth weighing on stocks. alix: thanks so much. let's check in with mark crumpton for more on the newsroom. marco: the emergence to and has been identified as a navy seal. the u.s. official says the seal was killed during an attack by the islamic state on the iraqi kurdish positions. the third death of an american

solid numbers with pmi above 50. that's important. that gives you a picture about the average american consumer. if the data is there and it is solid maybe we are ready to do this thing. quick notes. this is the hardware division of the company. we have second-quarter adjusted earnings beating the consensus of $.38. revenue was down 10%. double-digit declines. in the printing side following year over year. when it comes to the outlook hp is looking for profit of 37 to $.40 a share. , theps on the high end average analyst estimate. for the full year they're looking for a bit of 159 to 165. at least a dollar 59 on average. alix: a different story from yesterday. about stocksng versus actual economic data. you would look for the homebuilders. a huge jeff yesterday. homebuilders had a huge rally since 2012. if the data continues to support the what happens to the homebuilders? scarlet: homebuilders yield -- >> it is getting a large bump here but as you point out this is been a positive part of the economy where the past three years there

manufacturing, pmi out this just underat 50.1, the average forecast.ny number higher than 50 indicates conditions are improving. the expansion adds to the cause for strengthening any additional stimulus to avoid fueling housing prices or flooding se ctors. dhabi has not sh paid interest on one bond issued by the malaysian fund. justid the full amount due over $50 million. after months of financial officially default at last week when they missed an interest payment. two separate dollar-denominated bonds in 2012. the finance minister for indemnity on the payment. daylobal as 24 hours a powered by over 2400 journalists and 150 bureaus around the world. thank you very much other topic tops the agenda here like oil. what a month it has been, crude climbed to its biggest monthly gain in nearly a year. prices then fell on friday. a survey showed an urge -- surge in bloomberg production is on the. managing editor is joining me now, two big stories today. one is about opec producing oil. this in caps on it's very majory that there are supply issues here. >> no

china, we are expecting manufacturing and nonmanufacturing pmi with slight declines expected there.ost is expected for australian gdp. that's just some of what we are watching today. emily: some of the biggest names in tact will descend on silicon valley next month for the global entrepreneurship summit. president obama is hosting the event at stanford aimed at fostering exchange across borders. last year's summit was held in kenya, putting a spotlight on tech innovations across africa. african-based startups are expected to hit up ilion dollars. for more, we are joined by linda thomas greenfield joining me in the studio. david kirkpatrick is still with us in new york. it is fascinating. i had not heard the term silicon savanna until today that apparently people are using these terms. how would you describe the tech scene in africa right now? you say they skipped a lot of steps to get to where they are today. guest: i would describe technology in africa as thriving. there is a huge interest in improving access to technology. africanse areas where really get technology is in telephon

private manufacturing pmi out earlier this week and slightly deteriorating sentiment in april the marchonomist say benefits for monetary easing fromhelp boost credit companies may start to peter out a bit. bloomberg news, hong kong. mark: let's check on markets are doing in europe today. rising -- three out of four ain't bad. continue to dictate the mood in europe. have a look at the best and worst performing industry groups on the stoxx 600 today. bt group, the u.k. reported profit that beat estimates, telecom stocks, energy up, it beat expectations today. 1%.rers lower by in the currency markets today. an interesting move. i thought we would look at two turkish assets. down after rising the most since 2008. the prime minister will step down. he has lost his fight with that president and the bond yield is up. inore they move upward yields in turkey wiping out last month's gain. showing turkey the difficulty in investing peerless get back to the united states third abigail doolittle has the latest line from the nasdaq. abigail, what have you got? >> flipping between red and green right

just getting some pmi data on euroacturing for the area and the figure is 51.7, a slight uptick from the earlier 51.5. 51.7 showing the manufacturing industry is expanding. any number above 50 shows expansion. economycourse is an that grew 0.6% in the last quarter. still, inflation is a bit of an issue. let's get to the bloomberg first word news desk. nejra: halliburton and baker hughes have called off their $28 billion merger, citing challenging regulatory conditions. the proposed union between the oil service firms admit antitrust resistance in the u.s. and europe. halliburton must pay a termination fee of $3.5 billion. puerto rico will default on a $420 million bond payment today, escalating the biggest crisis ever in the $3.7 trillion municipal debt market. the governor warned the itsrnment would miss obligation, saying the commonwealth needs to focus on providing essential services. investors hold $900 million of its debt. creditors would accept a potential haircut according to the bank. warren buffett has taken aim at hedge funds. at the annual meeting of his company, the billi

that is what the market worries, that pmi are not up massively, released,ort orders and that is the key. fed is an additional consideration. francine: so whatever happens will either play to dollar strength or dollar weakness. let's say china can't stomach it, so they will have to put policies in place. whatever happens, emerging markets will be i guess worse off until they do structural reform? bhanu: or they get lucky with global trade improving, which i think a low probability event. that is where we find that emerging markets are going the other way. if you look at what is happening in china, there's a significant reliance on credit stimulus despite the fact that credit to gdp was already at about 215 present. before long, you could be at 300% of gdp. let's spend a couple seconds on china. this is the biggest risk, right, facing us, that this amount of debt becomes ugly. of thee the chances bubble bursting? bhanu: i think the way to think about china is not like thailand 1997. there isn't going to be an explosion. it is locally financed. the key is what your return on assets is like

geoff: they have managed to stabilize a but i think people much emphasis on the pmi much too much. pretty volatile subcomponent. if you look at the cyclical indicators and the data in general, look at the indicator, then that is showing improvement across much of the major markets including china and brazil. the guess that is helping local currency in china and helping the overall economy right now, but once they get the challenge of the rising dollar, it might be a different story. geoff: i think a strongly rising dollar and the fed rate raise is always a head wind, and that is what the data shows us and that is what economic research shows, and whether we will see that depends very much on the stress of the economy and will whether we actually see some rate hikes later in the year. the u.s. will continue on a fairly subprime mode and janet yellen has remained rather dovish. the brexit, trump, any concerns? fine, he is the candidate now. it will be up to the u.s. electorate to decide. , you can't do that, economic -- macroeconomics doesn't allow you to look at that kind of detail.

this is the latest pmi data which highlights that not only is manufacturing contracting, it is below that is the white line. we are also seeing a slowdown in construction and services, and services, very much the linchpin of the economy, representing the majority of the economy. it is now at its slowest level in three years. big referendum concerns reflected their. vonnie: this makes bank of england decisions which were difficult. you can follow all of the latest headlines on the brexit debate, have a look at the latest polls. bias than a less lot of the polls you read about in the british newspapers. about 40% think brexit will occur and 40% does not. let's take a look at where markets are ending the day. we will be having that in a moment. ♪ mark: live from london and new york, you are watching the european closed. i am mark barton along with vonnie quinn. a daily dominated by earnings. carlsberg, the world's biggest brewer reported fourth-quarter sales that disappointed investors. it offered a gloomy outlook for eastern europe and asia. sales in western europe which account for tw