a minor miss for the july manufacturing pmi data. at 49.9, then manufacturing pmi for july. forecast had been for 50, so marginally off. it was 50 in june. i don't think that will cause concern amongst holocene makers, but below forecast. china policymakers. non-manufacturing pmi and june was supported by the construction sector. july nonmanufacturing pmi 53 .9, so it will be interesting to see if services have picked up. key details in the manufacturing firms,a is hiring by factories, keeping labor costs low, starting to increase employment numbers. also, fixed asset investment has been weak. it had been hoped that the weaker renminbi would support manufacturing. deflationary prices at the factory gates have eased somewhat. thee is more credit in system in china, so manufacturers benefiting slightly from that. this 49.9 is slightly below those estimates. was time it was above 51 september 2014. expansionaryd the and contractionary figure of 50. we are expecting the private manufacturing pmi data at 9:45 a.m. beijing time. muchad: thank you very indeed. that is tom mackenzie

will bring you breaking pmi numbers -- we will bring you breaking pmi numbers.. ♪ [hip hop beat] ♪olympics 2016, let me get you on my level. ♪ so you never miss a moment, ♪ ♪miss a minute, miss a medal. ♪ ♪ why settle when you can have it all? ♪ ♪soccer to wrestling. track and field to basketball. ♪ fencing to cycling. diving to balance beam. ♪ ♪all you have to sa♪ ♪ is, "show me," and boom it's on the screen♪ ♪ from the bottom of the mat, ♪ ♪ to the couch where you at? ♪ ♪ show me the latest medal count♪ ♪xfinity's where it's at. ♪ welcome to it all. comcast nbcuniversal is proud to bring you coverage of the rio olympic games. welcome to "the pulse" here in london. we're just getting breaking news out of the u.k. this is pmi, gives us a good idea of what brexit means. the composite pmi falling to 47.5. a touch below estimates. anything below 50 means we are seeing a contraction. services pmi, that is the backbone of the u.k. gdp, falling to 47.4. get more on that. you can see the pound 1.3319. let's get to the bloomberg first word news. nejra: after taking a po

we are looking out for the pmi data.ing preliminary august numbers. 53.3 is the number for services, worse than what was expected. your composite number is a miss, as have been the opposite of what we saw in france. have a look at the euro at the moment. we have been tracking it. we have been hitting session highs post the french pmi data. we are coming off of those highs at the moment post the german pmi data. let's dig into the stock moves, and the european moves post the pmi data. what stocks are we looking out for? >> the first is unicredit, one of the biggest names on the stoxx 600 this morning. head welopment fund ill go to milan today. unicredit has been considering selling its entire stake of the polish lender. you can see it right there, that stock is up 1.3%. and persimmon, the biggest gainer on the stoxx 600 this morning. the housing builder here in the u k reported a pretax profit of 29%, more than 350 million pounsd. we spoke to the ceo today and the company says they saw robust trading in the first half of

we've got some pmi data out this morning. the composite euro zone pmi for august coming in 53.3. the estimated was 53 actually so a touch better than expected. the flash reading 51.8. the forecast was at 51.9 so a touch weaker than expected, but very little there. if we look at the services component there, we got the forecast 52.p. that coming in at 53.1. that significantly better on the pmi services. if we tie it back to what we've seen this morning overall, we've seen a ten-month high in terms of the private sector growth and on the french side. slightly weaker on the german services sector. a 15-month low on the reading. when you talk about a 53.3 read here, expansionary territory. >> good point. reverse german being the bright spot. it is two months since brexit. you may say still too early to tell. >> if you were going to see something, then you would see it in the survey data first which is what we see in the uk. what we can see from these numbers is ultimately looking at yeah pretty resilient. i mentioned the french and german. let me give you those as well. mixed data. f

francine: patrick, what you make of the pmi figures?atrick: it is exactly what we expected, it is asked -- it is consistent with 1.5% growth. it is not the brick with velocity that we need. jobs are still needing to be created. francine: if europe goes higher, what does that mean for european growth? --rick: the fed this week we've got draghi in a couple of weeks. it is much more what the ecb is going to do, rather than the fed . i don't think the fed is going to say anything meaningful. everybody knows that september is unlikely. december is maybe in play, where the ecb, how long they extend quantitative easing, that is the real driver. francine: are we looking at a stronger euro given urinalysis? -- given your analysis? johnny: the dollar index will be stronger in six months. there are a few interesting timetable events. you've got jackson hole and then you got september and december. if we fast-forward through those and passed the u.s. election, i would say on the medium-term, the dollar will probably be stronger than the euro. franc

euro zone services pmi coming in at 52.9. it was foreclose at 52.7. so a touch better than expected. in june we got 52.8. very much in line with the numbers we got back in july. expected to be a touch weaker actually given the results we had with the brexit vote. so holding in very steady and that's inline with what we've seen as well. that was a touch softer than expected just a 54.4 coming in. expectations of 54.6. not much to write home about. a touch softer than expected. other countries are managing to keep the euro zone pmi holding in. let me give you a look at the heat map. we're down on the stocks 600 here in europe. let me give you a look at the market to give you a sense how the markets are performing today. tilted to the downside in the ftse 100 withn.10 lower. keeping a focus on the oil and gas sector in particular. four month lows now for oil prices. we'll be talking about that later in the show. the bank sector is up 1.5%. we are seeing a pounce in the italian stocks after the selloff we saw yesterday. we have had some results this morni

the pmi data set is the rebalancing story in china large. we saw old economy manufacturing the industrial complex. services new economy that the chinese economy is transitioning towards consumer led growth expanding. i have always like to look at the forward looking indicators, especially new export orders. wasn't a pretty picture there. that speaks to overseas external demand especially with brexit in mind remaining quite sluggish. herein lies the problem for a lot of asian export oriented economies. the employment indicators edged up. you got to imagine that there are going to be more job losses on the table given the fact that manufacturing is under pressure. mainland equities are typically agnostic about the data series. however, the markets have been under pressure over the past week or so because of fears of more regulation, especially a crackdown on wealth management products. the small caps are under pressure and also, let's also remind ourselves that there are new issuances, new ipos in the pipeline. the fear is that going to bleed

good morning. >> pmi is what everybody is focusing on this morning. cop as it number for the eurozone as a whole and germany and france individually -- this will be watched for any economies and businesses are faring after the brakes we had in june. take a look at the three cop as it pmi's. germany at the top and then france. these numbers remain resilient in july even amongst the risk of brexit and the risk that went into the vote. some data of july, these numbers remain resilient, but we have to keep reminding ourselves we have had not all the hard data yet. that is what august will be closely watched. those numbers are dropping at 8 a.m. and then we get germany 30 minutes later and that 9:00 am of the eurozone as a whole. anna: thank you,. . advisors chief economic says feds need to consider the cost of keeping interest rates low. he says the risk of financial instability down the road because of extraordinary monetary policy. he says that is the strongest argument for china to slowly normalize rates because otherwise the fed is contributing to ris

i don't think those pmi numbers alter that picture. this is a slowing economy, not a collapsing economy. oliver: so then when you look at the depreciation with the losses in chinese currency of late, how come we haven't seen the effect on other markets and asset classes that the drop had in the past year? geoff: i think that we didn't see a repeat of the august decline, the august volatility, in the january volatility this year for a couple of reasons. first of all, i think the market -- understands better than the chinese currency policy, monitoring against a basket of currencies, not just the u.s. dollar. introduction of that new policy was not particularly well handled by the authorities in china. there is a lot of market confusion about it. i think we got used to that to a certain extent. secondly, when we had this extreme volatility in january, that was against the background were having seen the fed raise was the december, there growth picture around the world. i think that is what spooked people as well as the uncertainty over t

and eurozone consumer confidence it pmi. -- composite pmi.accelerated to the highest in six months, sigourney -- signaling to manufacturers concern. the big one is the boe tomorrow. across dataooking check assets here. crude oil really being the main focus when i came in this morning. it had fallen below $40 a barrel. it is an official bear market. 5% down the last two trading sessions. you can see here 2.2% the gain. since july, level 1364. it is interesting to look at treasury as investors began to sell it off. here you see usd and why are usd-myrx, the malaysian ringgit. screenlook at that wprs i have in the terminal, the green arrow for the ringgit means it is getting weaker against the dollar. i have something that shows expanded emerging market currency against the dollar. you can see at the bottom the ringgit is doing the worst, but the turkish lira doing poorly as well. emerging markets are having a tough time in currency terms against the dollar and equities as well. mark: let's go back to stocks, posting second-quarter profit that b

released pmi figures. let's get you through those numbers. .t is a 55.3 for the rest of the region, ,here is a slight bounce and finally, egypt had the pmi coming in and this is a slight rise from june. this division appears to be deteriorating. let's get some more perspective on this with the senior economist. there is strength in the numbers and it is a surprise, in light of other data. >> our takeaway was that it increases inwe saw output and growth. headlinesook at the and compared to other emerging markets, it shows a steady pace .f growth isyou can see that egypt here and you have the overall trend appearing to be decelerating. and we arethe trend going to have to see the rest of the second half of the year to determine if it is just a blip. it is a useful reality check on the sentiment of the region. if you have spent any time in this region, you know sentiment to be volatile and extreme, at times. when good times are good, we are on top of the world stop would bad times are bad, it seems to go in t

when you look cap pmi, they were weaker than expected. >> the pmi needs a bit more detail. balance of opinion. it doesn't tell you how much output is slowing, just that it is. it is kind of important. you have this reading that is very weak. either there is strong consensus growth this slowing a little bit or it is falling off a cliff. we think it overstates the weakness in growth. francine: you are expecting low growth, but not a recessionary environment. >> it will post it may be some zeros, but we are not asked to major recession, not like we had . we don't see the same hysteria here. business investment is going to be weaker. a lot depends on households. if they stop spending, we will have a recession. going and it looks ok, maybe we will not have one. francine: you can see investment being pulled that. find out the economy is not falling off a cliff, or if it does, when will it? for gaugesg to watch are consumer sentiment. if consumption growth slows, that is what it would take to have a recession. the damage is restricted to investment, that will have enough effect on

ever since we're the pmi data, of flat pmi data on the 22nd july.ke of that we have been virtually fully priced if not fully priced for the bank of england to 25 basis point on thursday. mark: a boc policymaker in july on the day of the meeting with the boe did nothing to the surprise of some told me that they should go by 50 basis points. work, this function is so wonderful it shows the probability of the cut to zero. it is zero, literally zero. traders think there is zero charge and that his words will be heated. they think maybe they could keep some powder dry. as part of a package of other measures we might talk about that in the second. i think his view similar to what the bank of england chief of economist is calling for which is a sledgehammer approach to the slowdown that is going to be coming from brexit. that might be 50 basis points and then a bunch of other additional measures. investors a looking at 25 being nailed on, and perhaps we get more towards the end of the year. vonnie: is there any chance they don't do anything this time aroun

patient pmi.erioration in china's manufacturing sector. he is with us. when we look at the china story, it is amazing how china has taken a backseat. -- backseat in terms of our risks. here we are, it looks like is there a case for more stimulus from china? >> there is a case but there is no money, because if you think -- it is not that much. a lot of people talk about chinese reserves. if you look at the gross number, you are talking about 30% of gdp grew -- of gdp. in reality, if you think about how this money has been spent in the last eight years, china -- while other countries were deleveraging, china was pushing the fiscal stimulus. .hey doubled private debt they increased private debt even more the last six months. if you think about this money, where it has been invested, there is over investment, overcapacity. there is losses here it and banks -- there is losses. document the losses of the banks, the appeals in china, .ouble digits, 10% to 15% the banking system is two times gdp. unit wit

pmi numbers are due out later.f london inroleum about the collapse petroleum oil. anna: we have an exclusive interview with the incoming ceo of axa. we will talk to the ceo and low interest environment. to10:40 u.k. time, we talked bylo mussina after the bank second quarter profits drop less than expected. ♪ it is 1:49 a.m. i love that shot. equities and futures. let's talk about socgen. second quarter profit rose 8% on lower provisions and a gain on the sale of a stake in europe. anna: brexit is creating uncertainty, but the bank's deputy ceo said he doesn't believe the bank will be affected. >> the macroeconomic impact is not positive. probably the impact on the british economy will be higher than for europe, for example. the long-term impact would depend on the outcome of the negotiations between europe and the u.k. that, we don'td know when it will start because of article 50. this adds to additional instability. in one of they unique and best positions among the banking industry in europe because we have a ver

pmi is seen as best reading and seven months. issueswith progress on like termination fees, or on a reporting on what would be the largest producer of seeds and pesticides. after years of sluggish growth, the largest u.s. retailer could be showing signs of a turnaround. surge of best buy surged. >> let's have a look at where european equities are trading right now. we are 30 minutes to the close. nots leading the gains, just in europe but among global equity indices. a number of italian banks are gaining. a lot of green across equity markets in europe. markets,t the currency sterling as of 4/10 of 1%. it's pretty much on teen -- changed -- unchanged on the euro. looking at the bond market, a little bit more of a quiet day, you can see the portuguese yield down eight basis points. the italian 10 year is up three basis points. spread between the italian tenure and the german bond rising 28 two week i today. that's taking look at what's happening in reaction to the pmi data we have. 53.3 in august, the highest and seven months. that

iron ore prices or futures rallying after that private pmi day tra showta showed an expans. copper hit a one-week high. nickel, which goes into the making of stainless steel. and iron ore futures in china rose 4%. that's one sector we will watch out for this morning. >> tell me about currency markets. as you though, wea as yokn, we've seen choppy moves. >> we've seen some choppy moves. it's holding steady against the yelp aft yen. let's get a look quickly. seoul's kospi is in the negative. the china markets open in an hour and a half. we'll see if there's any improvement following that private pmi data in chin back to you. >> thanks a lot for keeping us up to date, and we will touch base with you in a couple hours. >>> test runs for a high-speed rail system have begun in india. and officials are hoping the test runs can reach 200 kilometers per hour. the train left new delhi for the biggest commercial city, mumbai, about 1,500 kilometers away. the engine is pulling new passenger cars supplied by spanish company. the tests will run for several days. officials hope the train w

we'll see if there's any improvement following that private pmi data in china. back to you. >> thanks a lot for keeping us up to date, and we will touch base with you in a couple hours. >>> test runs for a high-speed rail system have begun in india. and officials are hoping the test runs can reach 200 kilometers per hour. the train left new delhi for the biggest commercial city, mumbai, about 1,500 kilometers away. the engine is pulling new passenger cars supplied by spanish company. the tests will run for several days. officials hope the train will be the fastest in the country. >> we are curious to see whether the claim is correct, can we really reach in that time, a substantial saving in time is anticipated. and secondly, can we reach safely. >> india has been working to bring in a high-speed rail service as its rapid economic growth requires people and goods to be transported more quickly. the company will introduce bullet train technology from japan in the coming years and is also trying to increase the speed of existing routes. the >>> jap. >>> japanese di

the official pmi at 49.9.ust barely below -- >> a private survey of small to medium-sized, you see the mixed response, hng sang in hong kong, the shanghai deposit down. >> the broader markets, the selling and oil continues. sentiment is negative. in the last half hour or so, the selling picked up steam. wti down to 41.05. brent down 1.5%. just below $43 a barrel after a double digit decline in the mornt of july. the dollar is slightly smaller. the supply concerns are weighing on oil as well. the euro, weaker. dollar, stronger. 111.67. fractional gains for the u.s. dollar. stronger against the japanese yen as well. reversing a major move on friday. point out the pound, mike on the back of the uk manufacturing data. yes, we expected it. boy, is brexit starting to hurt. this is the warnings were all about. the uncertainty weighing on the industries in the uk. quickly, i'll show you gold with the stronger u.s. dollar. gold up a bit in the early morning session. $1.60. >>> uber merging the china unit with rival did

i know it is pmi. so mayber weeks after there's a bit of a pullback.i is a concern. -- youk low the surface. have to look below the surface. i would expect to see those recover over the next few months as people within the industry. -- francine: richard jeffrey, chief investment officer. we have plenty coming up including stabilization in china. factor great deflation easing good are we seeing steady in the world's second-largest economy. the reserve bank of india's governor holds rates before his september departure. we break down his legacy. the pound sinks for a fifth day as the u.k. continues yields. you can catch my exclusive interview with tidjane thiam in this month addition of bloomberg markets and on bloomberg.com. this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: i am francine lacqua, london. let's get straight to the idiot with nejra cehic. -- straight to that bloomberg business flash with nejra cehic. nejra: the walls second-largest itnsurer -- that is even as got claims of natural disasters and restructuring charges. munich re shares are trading higher. lega

instruction pmi data.pending numbers out from the united states. we are joined now from bloomberg first word strategist richard jones to dig into what is lying ahead. will we be getting a trickle through affect from japan? richard, what should we be focusing on? it is interesting, we should be getting that u.k. data. richard: i think the data is going to be pretty interesting today, caroline, because we had flash pmi's released on july 22 for manufacturing and services, that we did not have the construction sub index included in that. so, today's data gives us the first look at the impact of brexit on construction pmi. i think that is something investors will be looking at. construction is probably not as important as manufacturing, and certainly, not as important as services, but because it is the first book, we will be looking at it quite closely. manus: this is a strengthening in yen. are they going to be able to turn the dial on that? richard: investors have been looking at this for the most of manus?a

pmi is seen as best reading and seven months.progress on like termination fees, or on a reporting on what would be the largest producer of seeds and pesticides. after years of sluggish growth, the largest u.s. retailer could be showing signs of a turnaround. surge of best buy surged.

the china pmi data we had this morning.ures are giving us one number and what the chinese government is coming out with paints a different picture. >> right. theories argue that they paid -- that the government paints a rosy picture. if you stand back a bit, yes, we saw the pmi down a bit, but the reality is both stayed close to .he 50 degree mark chinese economy is still in a holding position, not getting any better either. tom: thank you so much. us.jersey also with ira: a used to be about 25-30 basis points, according to our models. a lot of that was from japan. china has not been a net buyer for the last three years. i think it surprises a lot of people. there's still a huge holder. tom: just because they have a high inflation adjusted rate? mainly because of the switch over where the u.s. balance is much lower than it used to be. it is japan that winds up being a larger buyer. with negative fields, the alternative is u.s. markets. francine: overall, we saw so much volatility. can you confidently say that is now over ou

fallial pmi expected to below 50, 40 9.9. expansion, below that, a contraction. looking for tobacco a share of japan's e-cigarette market. we will have a look at what is becoming a booming industry and head over to tokyo for that. ♪ areaad: new regulations expected to pull the plug on the 200 plus companies that make up china's electric car industry. the government is imposing strict new standards on technology and could cut the number of manufacturers. promotes been keen to its own electric vehicles, and it seems absurd to be tightening the rules now. >> yes, good morning. china has been promoting electric vehicles as a way to combat air pollution and reduce the reliance on imported oil. you are right. it seems counterintuitive that they are clamping down. is behind this is that too many startups have sprouted as a result of this new license the government created to give to companies outside the auto industry. rationale behind the new license originally was to encourage innovation and inject competition for the traditional

we saw pmi numbers compared to the reuters poll, they were looking for 43.8. overall that figure is coming in above forecast. shrinking at fastest pace in seven years. that will certainly come to the attention of policymakers meeting for the latest decision on thursday. meanwhile, italian lenders continue to share the limelight. back in the red quite firmly. especially when you look at the likes of mps that was suspended after an initial six percent drop. unicredit continues to see some selling pressure off now around 4%. concern there is about its own capital position and what the impact of the npl rescue plan may have for the broader sector. meanwhile italy's prime minster told cnbc exclusively although he doesn't agree with the current bout on legislation, he does respect it. >> i fought for these and also for the to avoid the risk of institutional investors because i think it's time to open the doors of italy to market and give the currency for the people, but also for for international investors. >> so no bail in. >> no. personally, i don't agree with the

in the past the pmi has been right and i'm a fully signed up fan of the pmi fan club. number of people have pointed out the uk industrial sectors that they're the ones kind of behind a lot of the strength seen in the second quarter as opposed to services sector. >> august strength in gdp was down. pharmaceuticals and i think it was exports to asia and the u.s. it was a flash in the pan. encouragingly there wasn't payback in the following two months. nor was the strength sustained. maybe the weakness of the pound is giving a bit of buffness to the sector. if we are heading into a much slower growth environment in the uk because of brexit uncertainties, do we at the same time anticipate we're going to see a massive increase in government spend something? are we going to have much more on that front? >> sure. mechanically if gdp undershoots by a percentage point. then it rises. i've got my growth down about 2% points. the new chancellor said we're probably going to abandon or austerity and tax cut so that will increase a little bit more. you could see earning going up abo

t/os cmae au mrari 6, "pim pmi dtraj les lrena luo lae eo diper mihis aclego ea pae" el ero sch diecrajetidti dinilid co , r s gl e esy iese ,eg l , ilabun ncri endndseseunabad dingrio maadpola gizioayne ni ada 161--2 esmaun0eno e asplao a sc s ppado po uso nabad n sean aedad lqu snicaprim mi psos" sch cetfunt ab ea ma eun coe frf vgia enada s ose rionn baos e esu reaz iee cdeda 1117041 "emreidhostin ncaa tand elollle ar yurl " ia haofafa v seúnxpt u nsi síauen ch íscero icraenar bcoén q bodopociesquenosnis n y racan) r o coenmb cpto nttoiadde preoel boady so ast ynneuncoa sicud yocens e rme ogo iigci c nc mbn onja. t/ilrico ogo iigci 8, "v llinc d aga q olda ped on ldi s peonesbodo" ewa noci tem --or, eaÑ 22 o fer d miaco es as fu aiviol,erabad d grioasur qosas stael ebg..a q mha plaopoulqu "fro zm saz, anelha",a si lero aser cutro sa lesn surer llta.. --a via presfalieselen d, nodo "ail" ies egan qufuputon bead. artie de id oidrael uimrtte rt d noa l aorad nha o nic.. ol mecm o?ia -hoena vorer aeont micy esdounos ris p l emi dempst q earenos es stennrent ieo. yora er asaelias ael y's ciona

at 9:45 we get august chicago pmi. on the earnings front, look for results from brown foreman, the maker of jack daniels whiskey before the opening bell. after the close, hear from sales force.com. >> former news. viacom has sold shares amounting to $31 billion. sold more than 28 million in shares. he also received a multimillion dollar exit package after he lost the battle for control over the company to majority owner and chairman, summer in redstone. enormous total payoff over the last five years if you include everything. >>> google is taking on uber with a new ride sharing service. google's service will help san francisco commuters join car pools. it allows thousands of area workers in some firms to use the gps app ways to connect with fellow commuters. connects riders are drivers who are already heading in the same direction. charges riders at most 54 cents a mile, less than most uber and lyft rides and for now google isn't taking a fee. >> that could be interesting. uber is so dominant. i wonder if it's too late

and pmi drops in july ahead of the super

that is the latest on the german services pmi. when it goes red, we break it.this actually happen? >> currently, the company is still trying to track down who actually has the company and where the funds are going. based on what we know, they said last year they announced a collaboration with california-based bit go. they moved the bit coins online to enable a faster transaction and withdrawal. usually, exchanges like ok coin, the largest exchange in the world right now, they keep thei rbiir bit coins offline. they are working with forensics experts to see where the funds have been transferred. bit coin have sent us a statement, saying they have not seen any hack into their system. caroline: thank you, and great work. stay with bloomberg television because up next, it is "the pulse" with francine lacqua. with later on "surveillance," we will hear from carlo messina. this is bloomberg. ♪ hey how's it going, hotcakes? hotcakes. this place has hotcakes. so why aren't they selling like hotcakes? with comcast business internet and wifi pro, they could be. just add a

anna: pmi pain. china's factory gauge dipping in july as official measures head in a different direction. the new york fed. investigators underestimating the pace of tightening this year and next. $35 billion ride withits china business -- merging its chinese business with another in the country. ♪ welcome to "countdown." manus: we're crammed waiting for the drop of beer in the glass. we have the fed numbers. never far from a work function is anna edwards. the probability of a rate hike in the united states falls from 48%. that is basically what the white line is. the probability is dissipating. .lightly down she goes we dropped 1.7% last week. most of that was on friday. the fed governor is on this morning saying that the market is too complacent on rates. anna: all of that increasing appetite overnight for risk assets. let's get to these heineken numbers. heineken's interim dividends have come in at 0.52 euros. that had 7 million euros, the third-largest brewer in the world. previously said that as

tim: based on the pmi data, it is possible. anna: we will get pmi later on today. absolutely crucial. a willingness to be gradual. i will steal that one. anna: thank you very much, tim graf. up next -- manus: we have intercontinental hotels reporting their earnings. we will speak to the ceo for his first conversation of the day. this is bloomberg. ♪ ?c+sv manus: oil in fair territory, $40.tabilizes near australia's central bank interest rates at a record low to counter inflation. and a mixed jobs picture. japan's government is set to it has details of a $273 trillion --billion a storm lashes hong kong with rain and wind canceling its stock exchange for the day. ♪ good morning and welcome to count them. anna: welcome to the program. manus, should we do the hotel sector? hotels,ntercontinental revenue below the estimates of $851 million. the adjusted operating profits 344 million,$ slightly ahead of the operating profits for one-time items. first half revenue, $838 million on the block. --a: some news out of hondu it was up against the estimate. it is better than exp

the first pmi are pretty dramatic, but you might have overreaction. things might be normalized as time goes by. we expect some fiscal easing when the autumn comes. growth around zero is pretty much what we're expecting for the next one or two years. francine: is there concern about a policy mistake from mark carney? he seems to be the person who held the crisis, the reliable boyfriend. he seems to be on top of it. geraldine: the bank of england seems to be a lot more cautious when it comes to interest rate policy. we are not sure if they will get their or not, or keep a positive rate just about that. i think bank of england is going to be much more cautious when it comes to financial stability and try to balance the two. francine: how should he look through inflation? this also goes back to how you build a portfolio. geraldine: i think in the past the bank of england has looked through inflation. a couple of mpc members have hinted they would look through. this is our expectation. inflation will probably rise above target in 2017 and then revert back

construction pmi, chief european economist sarah hewin and as with us.least in certain gauges. is it going to get a lot worse? we are unclear whether we will be hit by a recession or whether it will be slow growth. sarah: it is a good question because we are seeing surveys that clearly come in over the past few weeks, would be signaling recession. do we see a rebound in august? sentiments in the immediate aftermath of the referendum was very negative. we had a lot of uncertainty, we had no government, no clarity on what the next steps were. since then we have a new prime minister. there have been some tentative steps toward brexit, and it may well be that the confidence certainly in the markets, we are seeing more stability. my own view is that the thoughts of surveys we are seeing are suggesting longer-term impact of the brexit result. the survey suggesting the investment house has been put on hold. projects are being scrapped. these are the sorts of impacts that have an effect on the economy, not just of days, weeks, months, but years. francine: how ba

between the pmi and the reality of the economy. slowed for the first time in 15 months but france has a narrowing gap. andany is edging back france is edging upward and that gap is closing. the numbers would suggest they are heading for a solid q3 in terms of growth. very much.hank you no brexit affect in the data so let's toss it over to matt bosler ahead of an anticipated speech friday by janet yellen. anticipating but maybe the talk is shifting toward a more sensible place? the market ishas, not moving much. i think people are expecting her to send the same upbeat message on the economy like stan fischer did over the weekend and other fed speakers. she will probably not give as much timing on the next rate hike because they have markets where they want them. they don't really have to do a lot of signaling in terms of getting the market to where they want to be. there is a debate that emerges every time we get a speech. reserve'seral monetary policy very vague or do we know what we can expect friday? >> people are interested to h

would tell you pmi is consistent with contraction. shallow recession. it is more about pessimism than actual company decisions at this stage. blowt is still a very big to the economy. but maybe not as bad as what the headline figures would suggest. francine: did you follow closely the fact that the boe hit a snag on day two of qe? they said, we will wait until november to fix this, which means they are expecting another uncovered option. gilles: the bank of england was a victim of its own transparency. the ecb probably have similar issues in the past, but we wouldn't know about it because the ecb has always implemented qe in a more discretionary manner. to some extent, the bank of england is a victim of its transparency. francine: is that a bad or a good thing? you can argue that you can change the disposition of how many longer maturity bonds you sell. is that too simplistic? gilles: it is never a good thing anyway because of the signal it sends. asis as much about signaling it is about transmission channels. something the ecb constantly talks about. i

n q l cacti pdiosscr sde eay eel eso pmi t t dirundo.naru sid..esore ta euonernao s va s eecl.r a ikamenstltdo esnallar fic poues lprenci e ieenre noinosomarpo mu cteosuyon.. e pteis. ac oscheanecen aaiady span n em darore gea emres m lna t per qstdon an. o se. rro taadena teiocoen y em pr q dirr lnyo praunusalal tay sfe ais n em m s tl quasprioiotund setrsti tejues la7/c r alesdi c ued sa --denadencdi aas o dl s. etr ntleuea os str nures --deleha co enuo gapa vir. yo cn nd yoru. gaieli ornza fe icrte cmpsneae, ue d san p si y ta vsodrsegonril di dhoan l deors.osetleen degnt u -moiesolo e cu --elteabel gri lqutamubuas nhe..rrcamos disderta a y l olea dge ribroa s gteeliae y ra inia un siee esues. tae vo armolaccn lpae jae stantdaa zaa ta cco ctrhaa e tos ten bla ronddejan ntl tl at sps l mia ntdahend be ncllaln qurd paa e leanar..n ta leba ujon r dec ysttein sidonaerde li.. gari e vjcointeliade oyonnuonos paid d lfe peha rabtern le ela rodae up elahaio eae.a ma epoo bin padono u eele a hosenf nvant k li atol im g d paidy da vta a cojuo rtue. sps o

other data today, you've got flash manufacturing, pmi.for the earnings picture, look for the results from best buy, indue wit. >> now speaking of the consumer, best buy second quarter results will be front and center this morning. our own landon dowdy joins us with three things to watch. >> street is looking for best buy to report earnings of 43 cent as share. beyond those numbers here are the three things to watch. first sales, ceo has made progress in reviolating the retailer as profits have rebounded. that growth may be hard to maintain. second, people are buying fewer electronics. data from the department shows sales at electronic and appliance stores fell nearly 4%. results have been impacted by a lack of invasion. apple hasn't launched a new product in some time and jeffrey downgrading best buy saying hitting critical mass and the third thing to watch management moves. best buy cfo stepped down in june. ceo dumped half of the stock this summer. move could acknowledge the difficulties in a brick and mortar retailer and dominated by a

ta v --gnl tudio,n esa gin, s j e hieo l abo rq pmi e aesa s de s tizin, y s icle pdehar uso eos antdnmbgoenanrais y akndl obmas fatae ce apuic.. so:1 didamssel paamtoe lia da e blo revise es de a cudoll tneunqua corae e paamto ie dire darme lezie aq eonco v sesraue eudia cocelajes acca enl is permirl e otosgeiadeorn. lonaopo cre pema asa ee u cpena meica l cpodeuvde ksfld -l ndatdeamsis ecz y e flemito gainpez' d60Ño deda ha dopocasa tal co dlarola utides yic q pra haberufdonsac yqu e d l tpetua a de05ras lampsao ha eti u dearin loen --a amiae inmrt hipas pe c aiaun ilroarqulas qua e ca,e lon o, tegana vi nma --fro os, blon loy n s ctes caad d aeladciga tekg 01 10 47 54 11 g. tou..217 o eme tidla eserzaes edíqume dier q evíasí e,es e ealn em va sarer va r a ña normalomo miots jo lfen oss q h mtedo ea mia pandoenue la node s nchis pe emacoel e ci bi..211 edooricq ls an d élesueodva a r un xi, efál moicel poueodes cecdo uí. a lgdeu id, nd dí ha si smeda ri pces uirgco raxtpae ma e imdeabr cor, c l q hvidoes q eab eelieree mresi ear ngu hsi feiv nrdí, epae sdy tbadodea nsucón cquesa irí

we have the pmi numbers better than expected and having a good day.u.s., back to the cyclicals in favor so tech, materials, consumer discretionary. industrials. and the more defensive names are lagging the markets. so again, little more risk on today. the best buy numbers were just great. i know you made comments about it. i want the point out how good the numbers were. appliances up 8%. heavens. electronics, remember what's going on with walmart and target. they had disappointing electr electron electronics. up 4%? that's the key number right there. computing and mobile phones with a positive number in front of it. services and entertainment to the downside. so we were talking about this in the morning meeting. one of the last man standing kind of thing still there and still selling phones, still selling appliances, one of the last places to get a lot of these things, there you see best buy up 15%. bottom line is they're gaining some market share and critical cat goirls in very difficult parts of the economy right now. toll brothers, these numbers we

you have seen that decline in the services sector pmi, but no great surprise that we would have seenly basis from the brexit outcome. let's not forget that in terms of growth second quarter gdp was better than expectations at 0.6 running into brexit and we also have the inflation number up off the floor. it post the financial crisis with a run rate at 0.5%. so not everything is going badly here in the uk. we just have this setback at the moment of confidence as a result of brexit. so many arguing they would do well to hold their fire. the problem is there's an element of commitment and free guidance here. that's what i saw in the july meeting. monetary policy committee stated their intention to do something at this meeting. perhaps we will see this 25 basis point cut. that will tick the box and show they are on their game, but at this point hard to say why there would be no aggressive not knowing how the new chancellor intends to shape fiscal policy. >> jeff, that's a great point. the synergy between what we get oen if policy side and fiscal side with what phillip ham mond can come u

we get important data in the form of pmi. when you do think we'll see the next leg down. >> i think when people are back from holidays and when all this discussion are going to start getting warmer again. it was not surprising we've seen such a moving sterling short of extremely excessive. i think it will begin depreciating again. >> you have one of these watches. the big consumer electronic fair. you enjoy using it or you find it's too. >> sure. >> it work sgls the biggest thing for me it gives me the heads up when i get a phone call. >> it's not too much. >> no. >> okay. good. some people ahate it. they try it and hate it. >> we was focused during the interview. >> good point. >> thank you so much. head of global strategy from unicredit research. >> some people can focus, you know. >> women multitask. men don't, right? >> at least that's the cliche. sorry guys. sorry. still coming up on the show, rajoy get the backing. >>> also telecom tie ups. we die into first half results and get an mna outlook for the sector. you can fi

china again one of their pmi numbers was negative.o it's the extent that investors or traders believe that's indication of a weakening global economy, then the importance of it picks up to a much greater extent and will drag the markdown with it to the extent they believe it may be technical and that it will bounce back, get through it and leakage will be less. >> we will continue to watch that ever so closely. so will "power lunch." by the way, it begins now. >>> and thank you so much, scott. i'm melissa lee. here's what's on the menu at this hour. one of the biggest pow players on wall street, j.p. morgan chairman, president and ceo jamie dimon minutes away from exclusive interview here on "power lunch." two of elon musk companies joining forces in a stock deal, but will tesla get burned by solarcity? and stick around to find out. "power lunch" starts right now. nchtsz welcome everybody to "power lunch." welcome back, melissa. we

all of a sudden china pmi rallies, apple railed a little more ar china pmi came out. the other thing going on. china healing, going to services. more fiscal spending there. good story in india. right? just started a national sales tax. what will they use that money for? inf infrastructure? build roads? developing that company. japan, same thing. >> doc, you don't own the dofst. anyone on the desk that doesn't. why? >> in my portfolio, judge, i thought i saw better opportunities in other stocks. i still think i'll get a shot to buy it again at 100 before they have the big announcement for the iphone 7. so i could be wrong about that, just like i've been wrong about getting into it too soon. >> what as technically, josh? how does apple set up from here? >> looks great, but run into resistance to some extent. needs good news to put it over the top. good news about apple, meaning good news, pretty much no one expected 2-it-to come and a great setup in this name over the years, you kind of buy if in the middle of a no-man's-land in terms of product cycle and low and behol

q1 gdp in eurozone had to revise andnumbers up and the pmi's the economic indicators have been steady is staying ok. it is not great, maybe 1%, 1.5 percent growth rates but it is not collapsing. all the stimulus is feeding through two slightly better data. dynamic,e other inflation or the lack thereof. that comes through through the next numbers we have -- the nestle numbers. a look at those, the slowest sales since 2009. if you want to think about it that is a personification of the global challenge. it does not paint a trend amend this -- a tremendously optimistic picture in terms of the inflation story. guest: it is true. well focus on what is the topline growth, what is the earnings growth and we forget that is nominal. no one says what is nestle's numbers in real-time. always looking at nominal. what we are seeing now is the fact that we are living with this globally low-inflation and in the eurozone has been for some time close to zero or partly negative on the numbers. this has been problematic for companies which is why when you look at margins, you look at margins, they are w

we have seen the pmi performance all under manufacturing or construction.ust overnight we got jobs data talking about the number of people hired, permanent hires, decreasing the most in seven years in july. that's just overnight data coming at. how weak does the picture get? what is your forecast compared to the bank of england's? >> jeremy: we are forecasting a recession in the second year. if the pmi numbers continue as they are, which they will do over the next 3-4 months. government, -- anna: did we reshape? jeremy: i hope so. i hope the inflection points are quick to rebound. ata: jeremy, chief economist world first stays with us on the program. the ruling anc party in south africa suffers his worst electoral display since the end of apartheid. we have analysis life from johannesburg live on "countdown." this is bloomberg. ♪ hey how's it going, hotcakes? hotcakes. this place has hotcakes. so why aren't they selling like hotcakes? with comcast business internet and wifi pro, they could be. just add a customized message to your wifi pro splash page and y

government officials say the their pmi in july stood at 49.9, down 0.1 point from the previous month. a reading below 50 suggests a contraction in factory activity. that's the first time in five months that the index is below that mark. analysts say that sluggish new orders among medium and small sized companies were the main cause. meanwhile, the private research firm caixin puts its index at 50.6. it exceeded the 50 mark for the first time in 17 months suggesting expansion in factory activity. analysts say china's economy has begun to show signs of stabilizing due to the gradual implementation of proactive fiscal measures. >>> a survey shows that businesses in japan are making progress in having more women take on senior positions at their workplaces. the government study shows a record high in the ratio of females in managerial or executive roles at private sector companies. officials at the labor ministry conduct a poll once every two years. they survey the ratio of females in management posts at businesses with ten or more workers. about 4,000 firms responded. the ratio of female

the pmi's themselves .2 recession. to recession.join the dots, the epicenter of the impact will be investment. domestic and foreign. the data about that we will get in months. retail sales will never be the epicenter. tom: i level you said above the domestic economy. one of the great mysteries is if we see sterling go down, as suggests, as some form of protest by the people. maybeeve it was argued korea what sell gold bracelets in the street, how would the british people protest what seems to be a coming wealth destruction? >> we saw a earlier in the week there was some process outside the bank of england about the qe experiment. the bank of england doing extra qe. in 2009, 2010, 2 thousand 11. there was a squeeze on household income. a curb in household income. that affect will be, surmounted consumption side, will be the headwind. slide in you have a the wage growth as well. but it is the 10% fall in sterling we saw that will really curb spending. today, you assume day and granted it has only been weeks since brexit, do you assume

if you look at the pmi data that came out of saudi, the oil production is at an all-time high. sector is doing reasonably well. economic growth is still solid. are not as bearish on saudi. in terms of the financial market isformance, the bond market a reflection of the tightening liquidity in the saudi system but also the future outlook. it has gone up nearly 22 basis points because of what is happening in the u.s. with or without the fed rate hike, rates have gone up. the liquidity is tightening, no denying that fact. the foreign money we were expecting the saudi government to bring in by issuing international bonds and doing more international loans has yet to materialize. a lot of funding is coming from the local banking system. that is having an effect. months: we look at three liable yields. how much of that is really down to what you are saying come up market reforms taking place. how much of it is also down because it is feeding on itself and we are getting towards the realms of a credit crunch? >> it is difficult to quantify exactly how much of it is from and how much f

the latest manufacturing pmi numbers for july are showing us being in expansionary territory across emergingts for the first time since 2015. the july numbers capture the first full month after brexit rishaad:. rishaad:what happens -- rishaad: what happens when the fed raises rates? how does that change the landscape? >> we had thin asking that question since 2013. then extremely cautious, extremely gradual. we don't necessarily inc. the ed has reached the end of its tightening cycle -- the in the -- the fed the path of rate hikes will be gradual, including emerging markets, to be able to absorb the shock. at how emerging market assets, including on the currency side, react to increases in u.s. rates, we are seeing an increasingly less negative response from emerging .arket fx that bodes quite well for the asset classes well. rishaad: great talking to you. right. got to take a break, but catch our exclusive interview with the boss of china's biggest office , we will hear from soho china. this is bloomberg. ♪ rishaad: you are act with backnding business" -- with "trending business". 10 send c