and historically, democrats out perform republicans by, you know, a poign, two points or three points. it is not usually like 20 very 8, when it was by 8 points. so i think the question is, are we going to see a repeat of the 2008 turnout, where the democrats did the best they have done in a gen scpraigz we have seen in many of the sampling of the state polls that look good for the president, or something closer to 2004, in which president bush at the time squeaked out a narrow victory. i think these are the questions that i am trying to figure out. i look at it like this, if have you historic democratic turnout, the idea of republican intensity and enthusiasm is a myth. you can't, to my mind, have both. >> bill: let's take a look at the washington post national poll. they took a look across the country and found this race tied. 48% each. that does left 4% undecided. i will get to that in just a minute. let's take a look at the real clear politics national average. they take the polls and combine them and take the average. 1/10 percent lead for president obam a. again, you have 4%, or