once again, the exit polls showing a 50/50 race right now out of the exit polls. all the polls in wisconsin are now closed. the stakes certainly extraordinarily high in this election with republicans and democrats alike. they're watching wisconsin for signs of what's to come in november. no one knows that better than the chairman of the republican national committee. also a native of wisconsin. thanks very much for joining us. i know a lot of republicans were expecting a win for walker. you may still win, but it looks incredibly close right now. first of all, what are you hearing from your republican sources in wisconsin? >> well, everyone we're talking to and our field staff and walker's team, we feel good about where we're at right now. we've had to work hard in this state for everything we've had. it's a big turnout operation -- >> when you say you feel as good as you've ever felt, 50/50. all the other polls showed a lead sometimes three points, sometimes five points for walker. are you surprised that the exit polls now, the exit polls we've been gathering thro

tomorrow, speak oefg polling it is poll day.e new nbc news/"wall street journal" poll. tonight with brian williams. up next, chris jansing. bye bye. >>> business travel forecast, we are watching the tropical storm in florida, creating problems, especially north florida. the other story is the amazing heat across the country. wither going to be very hot today. areas of the central u.s. notice the eastern u.s., enjoy the cool weather while it lasts 'cause all the hot weather that's in dallas and denver all the way through texas, that's heading your way. when you have diabetes... your doctor will say get smart about your weight. that's why there's glucerna hunger smart shakes. they have carb steady, with carbs that digest slowly to help minimize blood sugar spikes. [ male announcer ] glucerna hunger smart. a smart way to help manage hunger and diabetes. home protector plus, from liberty mutual insurance, where the costs to both repair your home and replace your possessions are covered. and we don't just cut a check for the deprecia

poll.at's the case perhaps it is number is lower. i think it is possible that given we have been in a recovery for some time people are beginning to feel maybe a little more hopeful. although some of the economic numbers, as you say, we have seen, just in the past couple of weeks, have indicated perhaps things are slowing down this spring and as they did the last two springs. and those attitudes could turn around. but -- you know, i think it is possible that there are some people in america who begin to feel like we have come through the worst of it. things are about to get better. >> i don't doubt that. eugene, just to stick with the polling for a moment, could it lie in the fact that this is likely and not registered voters? i'm not sure how we could determine or discern who is a likely voter as we sit here today in mid june. >> pollsters have different screenings they do to use determine who is a likely voter and who is not. those are the kinds of details you have to look at when you eva

we polled it every single week.it was -- in all of those polls, republicans and unaffiliated voters didn't like it, younger voters did, seniors did not. the day it passed we started polling about repeal and numbers were exactly the same. majority favored repeal. seniors were more supportive of it. 54% on the day after it was passed. 55% now. the numbers, the demographics, have not changed. this is a bill that is firmly established in the public mind. people know whether they like it or don't like it. nothing has changed it. >> one point on the health care law. in my opinion, the health care reform debate and law put in place probably did the most single handedly to damage president obama's post-partisan image. when the stimulus bill was passed, it was a little support of republicans in congress but looking at polling, it still had majority of support. that shifted as people began to see the results and what was in the bill and things that took place. but the way the health care bill came together, the general sense

. >> there is a fascinating new poll out this morning. >> a new poll by bloomberg news. >> surprisingly good news for the white house. >> a new bloomberg news survey gives the president a 13-point edge. >> with a whopping 13-point lead. >> president obama with a huge lead over mitt romney. >> this is the widest spread we've seen in quite some time. >> we're not going to ride up and down the roller-coaster. >> who wants four more years of obama care? >> 45% of voters say they're better off since the president took office. >> up and down the poller coaster. >> the poll points to core strengths in the president's re-election campaign. >> how we see the future is imperative that mitt win. it's not even like a choice anymore. >> we're doing this because of the values we believe in. >> it's not even like a choice anymore. >> everyone should do their fair share, but they should play by the same rules. >> we got lots of new clues this morning on the mitt romney veep stakes. >> is mitt romney can considering an early pick for vice president? >> first off, it's none of your business. >> marco rub

what the exit polls are showing is how decided people were before they went into the polls.he country is evenly divided. wisconsin is evenlyly divided. they mean money for tv ads don't necessarily turn the tide. it's more a matter of turning out the people that support you, which is why the ground game that's been run in wisconsin is so important. if the country is so divided and true independent voters then what matters is turning out your people. that's jury room one. number two, there are other states besides wisconsin that are battleground states where union membership is still strong. pennsylvania is one. ohio is another. if the unions and the rest of the progressive movement can turn the tide, that gives the democrats and barack obama hope in ohio. what the republicans were trying to do, what scott walker was trying to do is divide the labor movement between public employee unions and what's left of the rest and somehow rob the union movement as a whole in representing working people around the country. that's one of the things at stake and it's allowed the movement to

the bloomberg poll show -- try saying that, bloomberg poll, try saying it at home right now -- shows that 63% of likely voters agree with the president's new immigration policy. 30% disagree. last night sean hannity asked sarah palin if she supported mitt romney. palin supported anyone but romney during the republican primaries, but now, sarah's stuck. >> we have a presumption nominee now in the gop process, after a good, competitive, and very spirited competition to find that presumptive nominee, and, yes, if that vote were to be taken today, obviously, i would vote for president -- for governor romney over president barack obama in a heartbeat. i wouldn't blink, because i go back to what i said at the beginning. anybody but obama. >> joining me now are msnbc political analyst steve kornacki and huff post live host alicia menendez. alicia, a 13-point lead, where the heck did that come from? >> well, there are a lot of people who are saying that this is an outlier. but regardless of whether or not that 13 points is an outlier, you see some big picture things we've been seeing in ever

we will be watching for more exit polls before they come in before the polls close at 9:00 eastern.have passed since the former president ronald reagan died with a long battle with alzheimer's. today his first widow nancy reagan lady flowers at his grave side in southern california. we learned that nancy reagan was still recovering after she had broken some ribs at a fall at her home. gaffes and crying in court as the spray tan murder trial. next the decision that took the jury just one day to °(d ú horses.úh<íourpdhm@:jéll.>tw7ñ disputend the scenes week's belmont stakes. it is threatening a champion's try at a coveted triple crown. will the belmont even happen? iue because they don't take it with food. switch to citracal maximum plus d. it's the only calcium supplement that can be taken with or without food. that's why my doctor recommends citracal maximum. it's all about absorption. have an over the top experience. being hands ons key! i make sure every plate looks just right. [ male announcer ] don't miss red lobster's four course seafood feast, just $14.99. sta with soup, sala

tom barrett never led in any polls leading into this.oday, it looked like it was going to be very, very close. in the end, it was not very close. do we know yet what happened? >> i've been trying to figure it out myself. we were expecting a long night. maybe not even a call tonight. not until the morning. and you know, you kept watching the returning come in and the pile got bigger and bigger and walker was up double digits and now, the latest numbers seen show about ten points maybe a little bit less, which is larger than his margin in 2010. so i'm quite surprised and don't know exactly what was often the measurement. whether there was a participation problem with people supporting walker not responding to the exit pollsters. that's always a possibility but i haven't heard it explained yet. >> in terms of the other unexplained thing connected to the exit polls here, the other sort of thing we're still trying to figure out, whether it's a measuring thing or whether it's a confounding result, are these very positive numbers for president

check out the polls themselves? i assume you vote. >> at the polls voting.views i think you might expect with regard to this issue. and others in general. i think governor walker has done a tremendous job for state of wisconsin. so i'll watch with some anxiety myself to see what the results are. i think he has taken the state. he has taken the public safety i'm concerned about in a positive direction. i look forward to hoping to have two-and-a-half more years to work him. >> greta: thank you, sir. i hope you have a good day tomorrow and there is no fraud. coming up, a loud rally in wisconsin with mayor tom barrett and president bill clinton. then it turns sour for a united states marine. why? you will see the full story and then you decide forous. milwaukee police went too far. and two minutes, more trouble. at the gsa. new investigation and finding that will knock your socks off. that is just ten minutes away. h. [ crunch! ] i knew it'd be tough on our retirement savings, especially in this economy. but with three kids, being home more really helped. man: s

he has a seven point lead in the exit poll. that's a good news if you believe the exit polls. i'm not sure how good they are, i'm very conceptble in this environment. i'm skeptical in polling this year. in terms of turnout and everything, it's too hard to figure who will vote and how they will vote. >> i agree, since you brought up the exist polls, i think there are lots of concerns about them and why, one reason i think is in wisconsin. i was astonished in how firmly and strongly people are divided. this information says that most people, like 90% of voters in wisconsin decided which side they were on for this in may, last month. so it's harder to poll them and predict who will turn out. if was i president obama i would be relieved about that 51-44 number you mentioned, but i would be concerns in a way about another number in there which is 18% of the people who voted for scott walker said they would support president obama for reelection. so the question is how does the president reassure those people and make sure he keeps that 18% of walker supporters so he can win wiscons

we have fox polls out. the rate as of now, this poll. barack obama leading 45 to 40%.om june 3 and 5. it is in the margin of error, but it is a change from beginning of june. next, if you look at among independents there you see how 37%. for president obama and 31 for romney. has a plan for improving the economy, does president obama? look at romney, 37 yes, 55% no. a larger number unsure. this is where the battle will really be fought on the economy. bring in our panel. mary kathryn hamm of daily caller. mara liasson of the national public radio. byron york, chief political correspondent of the "washington examiner." mara, you are surprised by the numbers? >> well, you know, it seems that president obama is having a patch. succumbing to a terrible job number last month. things didn't look like they would get better. he is having an uptick. this is still within the margin of error. romney to go up with if independents. that is the biggest change. plan to improve the economy, this is going to increase cause among conservatives who are begging romney to do more than just

numbers. >> this poll, listen, the polling shows, i have a role. i look at polli ining averages. one out of 20 just by the law of sampling is going to be very, very wrong so i look at an average of polls. right now this morning before that poll barack obama was up by 0.8% in the polls. he has a slight lead. that's been bouncing around from 1% to 3% the last couple months. he is not at this moment, we have no reason to believe he's up by 13 points. doesn't mean he's not leading but we should be careful when a poll comes out showing wildly different results to keep it in effect. if tomorrow five more polls come out like that, great. >> but the reality is at this stage of the game, it's june. 4th of july is in a couple weeks, summer vacations. it's meaningless. polls mean nothing right now. it's just money that's being made by pollsters who are going around to folks saying hey, you want me to take the pulse of the people? it's a good gig until you get to labor day. the polls then begin to matter more when people -- >> i'll say this. we have the same t

they started and sent poll workers out in 2010, did a little poll workers out and did a pilot project and isn't the tea party people out to look over the shoulders of the people that voted. that was pilot. now they're taking it nationwide. and soap they will be coming to a polling place near you and you need to be prepared for this because the idea is they are going to challenge the eligibility of voters. this is about intimidation. this is about trying to make sure not only are we going to change the rules and make it harder but when we get there, we're going to scare you. so we've got to be ready for folks to tell them that we will not be scared. so ft. lauderdale paper today has a story about the 91-year-old veteran who was on that personal list there florida. a veteran. okay? has served his country and is on this list illegally on this list. but don't worry, we're going to take care of florida and this list. don't you worry. so true the vote, what you need to know is that they are going to be prepared and we need to be prepared. we will have election protection folks monitoring th

. >> this morning, we've got a new poll. >> a new nbc news/"wall street journal" poll. >> the new nbc news/"wall street journal" poll -- >> where it's all about swing states and the base. >> president obama is ahead, 47 to 34%. >> mitt romney can not get over that hump. >> his negative rating is back to his all-time high of 39%. >> what matters is the margin in those swing states. >> do you watch those swing states. >> colorado, florida, michigan. new hampshire, new mexico, north carolina. >> in those states, the president has widened his lead to eight points. >> 50 to 42%. >> the president is doing quite well. >> everybody thought mitt romney had a great june. according to this poll, he didn't have a great june. >> that's just like your opinion, man. >> excuse me, dude, i just want to point out, that is the nbc news/"wall street journal" poll. >> there's a new quinnipiac poll out this morning. >> the quinnipiac poll out this morning shows the president pulling ahead in ohio. in pennsylvania, the president tops romney 45 to 39%. down in florida, the president edges romney with a four-

the newest poll from public policy polling shows walker only has a three-point lead. i have been in wisconsin this past weekend stopping by in racine and burlington and north milwaukee. everywhere i went, there was unbelievable enthusiasm. so this is one for the archives, folks. i don't know how the polls can be judging the heart and desire of the people that i ran into this weekend. there was one person that struck me. a teacher that has been in the business some 20 years in the classroom and says she's not ready to retire. she wants to go another ten years. she said, ed, if there's anything that comes out of this, will you just tell the people of america that i'm not the enemy. this is how a lot of people in wisconsin feel. they feel like they've been vilified by a radical agenda. the people of wisconsin don't understand why they're the guinea pig of a right-wing agenda just to, quote, see if it works, this person told me. there's reaction from the white house tonight. the president of the united states tweeted it's election day in wisconsin tomorrow and i'm standin

it is important to note the poll is an outlier compared to other recent national polls which show theto be very tight. so what should we make of this poll? with 34 1/2 months to go until the election, where do things stand? eugene robinson is a pulitzer prize winning columnist important "the washington post" and msnbc political analyst. susan page is the washington bureau chief for "usa today." welcome both. here is why i'm skeptical. perhaps the key for the election will be whether voters feel better off than they were four years ago according to the latest bloomberg poll, 45% say they are better off. susan, what i have ringing in my head is the revelation recently by the census bureau that 35% of our net worth has been lost in the last couple of years. that's largely attributable to people seeing the value of their home, principal asset decline. you know if i'm seeing the value of my home decline, how can i now say if i'm one of the 45%, i think i'm better off than i was four years ago. >> you know, it is possible that -- when you look at the head-to-head number in this politte look

president obama in this latest poll leads 49% to 43%. this is a marquette poll.-point lead a month ago. but i think that there's a feeling, keith, that because of the wisconsin recall election and what happened there, that it gives romney an opening. do you buy that? >> i don't buy it but i'm glad the republicans scheme to be buying it because it's an extraordinary waste of time and money on their part and maybe it's a huge head fake or something by the democrats but the polls show even though people supported walker in the recall, they still supported president obama according to the exit polls. the other part about this is three -- >> or did the republicans just have so much money they're talking about $1.25 billion from the super pacs -- >> go ahead, waste their money in wisconsin. joots just the opposite. they're saying now obama has to pay attention to wisconsin. he was originally not going to have to put any time or energy into it. i will agree with you both sides now have a strong ground game as a result and frankly the democrats have a better one. >> that

there is a whole host of incredibly popular things that poll after poll shows. i think it's important to make sure that we're looking at polls looking at the individual, very popular proponents that now you are going to have a lot of republics say they are against or the total package which admittedly there some confusion about. >> margie, does it help him run against the supreme court and say hey, i don't like the supreme court if most americans say the supreme court made the right decision. i didn't want this law anyway. >> i don't think it helps to really bring the supreme court into the debate. i think it helps for the president and democrats to talk about what this bill does for american people. what are some of the really popular things to make sure people understand a lot of the specifics. it's confusing. i mean it's a confusing topic. there is a lot -- >> juan: scott, i want to get to the numbers that we talked about at the top the horse race, right now you have president obama up in the horse race but what's critical , what's absolutely critical is if y

the polls have closed. we are going to go to the man on the ground david shuster, man on the ground. welcome back inside the war room. >> good to be here. thank you. >>. >> we are hearing about potential turnout. what's the scene on the ground. >> indications of a strong turn out but for tom barrett, he has cleared the first couple of hurdles. >> here in dane county the strongest for him in the state, you have 150,000 votes here in madison, dane county back in 2010. apparently by 5:00 o'clock local time, three hours before the polls closed they had already exceeded the total vote total for 2010. so in other words, everything in the final three hours, that is gravy for tom barrett. secondly, lots of indications that incredibly heavy turnout in milwaukee county. milwaukee county is going to be the last to report tonight, largest county in the state. again, that's another tom barrett stronghold. there was such a heavy turnout that they were running out of forms, running out of ballots and in several locations,

poll shows -- i agree, seven point in exit poll. seven-point margin for obama. but obama is under 50% in a state where, you know, romney not had much effort. the campaign has long way to. go battleground state. but give the edge to obama. running to a guy that won a state by 414,000 votes, 14 points, to be up by four is not good. >> bret: eastern seaboard, don't see a lot of change but virginia is the big state everybody is looking at. >> yeah. look. not much change. the eastern states, most of the point change is within one or two. >> interestingly. north carolina, the democrats have convention there karl and i talk about this. my gut says it will go to romney. it mean whence you look at the 3-2-1 is that thegy, indiana, north carolina, virginia, it could come down to virginia still. that has gotten, just gotten more wind to obama right now. >> bret: right now, 3%. separating. >> florida an ohio are minus one. obama by one in ohio and tied in florida. there are other ones to fill out the dance card if romney fills out the three and two card for the other. looki

the exit polls show we have a close race.look at the election today and what people think about november you see a polarized electorate. 50% of wisconsin voters have an unfavorable opinion of the republican party. only 47% favorable. so you think okay, they're more mad at the republicans. not really. they're mad at everybody. 50% the same exact number unfavorable opinion of the democratic party, 47% favorable so you have a grumpy electorate here. the question is, will they still be grumpy come november? we bring in chief white house correspondent jessica yellin. as the obama team watches this, the president did tweet this, i'm standing by tom barrett, he'd make an excellent governor, outstanding governor, sorry. he didn't go there, just keeping his distance. >> reporter: a visit by the president nationalizes the race more than it is and they're downsides on both ends. for barrett a visit by the president has the potential to turn off voters who might have sided with him but might not like the president. if the president's poi

and including this poll.ke this poll out as an outlier and romney leading by a point. i think what's consistent in terms of data out there is all the polling is showing this to be a dead heat between the two candidates. probably going to remain that way. been that way for eight weeks now. ever since the nomination process basically with republicans. so i wouldn't take too much out of this poll. in fact, most of the other polling as you say is showing wrong track, over 60%. >> well, i mean, yeah. but also to be fair, i mean, and been a long time speaking of ed hunt of bloomberg on "morning joe" and suggests to look at this as a whole and analysis of this poll by bloomberg or other people is looking when you see the numbers at a race that's very tight, an american electorate that's very unsettled. let me ask you, ed, about a particular number that i think al pointed out that a lot of people find interesting. they ask the question, who would you want to sit next to on a long airplane flight? 57% president obama

how are you getting people to the polls? >> well, if you can imagine across the state there are 33 field offices that are just abuzz with hundreds of thousands of volunteers that are coming in to get their walk package and go door to door in their local neighborhoods. we have had just massive out pouring of folks this year and in the past year who have taken responsibility to communicate directly in their neighborhoods. so leaders have adopted award. we have over 2300 wards statewide that have been adopted by our volunteers. they come in. they get trained. they get a walk packet and then they are out ringing doorbells and having face to face one on one conversations with voters about where to vote, how to vote and having a plan to vote. >> interesting. that information comes back to? right? so they go, they knock on the door. somebody says i am a bearet supporter. and i plan on voting. that information. that goes to headquarters. then what happens? a call goes to that house on election day to say have you voted yet? have you

about a third in that same poll said ufos exist. only one thing this morning, the huffington post has an amazing tribute to nora ephron. don't you, when you flip around and get like "sleepless in seattle," you stop and watch it for the 100th time? amazing. it's at facebook/jansingco. against digestive issues with three strains of good bacteria. hit me! [ female announcer ] live the regular life. phillips'. [ female announcer ] live the regular life. it's time to live wider awake. only the beautyrest recharge sleep system combines the comfort of aircool memory foam layered on top of beautyrest pocketed coils to promote proper sleeping posture all night long. the revolutionary recharge sleep system... from beautyrest. it's you, fully charged. tell me you have good insurance. yup, i've got... [ voice of dennis ] ...allstate. really? i was afraid you'd have some cut-rate policy. [ normal voice ] nope, i've got... [ voice of dennis ] the allstate value plan. it's their most affordable car insurance -- and you still get an allstate agent.