the other piece of research that us pollsteres do are focus groups. we basically go around the country, pull together 10, 20 people, sometimes less, sometimes more and talk about bakley what a the who of times what is the thing to put in the poll. what focus groups do is in polls sort of tell you what focus groups are, how you figure out why. we know that you find out that 40% of people in your state support the healthcare package that will go through congress. that is interesting in and of itself but you don't have the why. what you can do with focus groups is figure out why. it usually lasts about two hours. with focus groups if you want to talk to voters who vote every third year and have bluies you can do that. you can get very specific with what you are doing in your groups. so, you tend to have tpwrups just maybe his educated women, or you have focus groups of parents with kids in public schools, or voters over 65. you can do whatever you want in the focus groups. and you really sort of get the depth of the understanding of the issues. because a

. >> coming up, republican pollster kellyanne conway talked about the 2010 midterm elections, and author anne kornblut on her book. a little later, is q&a with michael scammell. republican pollster kellyanne conway gives it falls on the 2010 midterm election, the obama administration, and political conservatism. this portion of for speeches about 35 minutes. >> this is somebody who ran on feel-good phraseology like hope and change. great campaign sound bites, easy to repeat, easy to knock your head in agreement, but specifics in government are very difficult -- very much different. when you're done making history, you need to start making policy. you need to really see polls and public opinion. i know many elected officials and voters are skeptical the poll. the say that i lead by example, i don't think about polls. but it's taking crackly and scientifically and fairly worded questions, not like the ones i read your earlier, they can be a very important headstone to we the people. it gives us an opportunity to tell our elected officials and our community leaders what it is that is making

pollsterç a pollster to many democrats, was still talking about president obama's general approvalçin the past year. why is that important? he is not just the president of the united states. he is the commander in chief, and he is the leader ofñr the party that currently holds strong majorities in both houses, many governments, both legislatures. he is leader of the party and the chief legislator on all those things. let's take a look get the approval ratings of democratic parties on issues asçç well an attributes. if you look at issues, foreign policy, iraq, afghanistan, illegal immigration,çv:w7[ -22 disapproval -- 58% disapprove. cnn again, unemployment has upside down%uju(s ratings. the war in iraq, taxes, health care policy, so all these measurements by anyone's account are not voting well on these issues, and on actor reeves, if you're running based onçxd8hÑ attributes,ç -- and e attributes, if you are running based on attributes, if you're talking about hope and change and having a clear vision for the country, then it is fair game to ask you questionsç in tolling. is

it is just a personal preference for your pollster. you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion about them. you can break that down. some people do it on a thermometer scale. zero to 100. kind of get the same results but it is just a personal preference. then you have your horse race. are you going to vote for candidate x, candidate y. typically a tends to be followed up with how certain are you. that shows how strong the person's convictions arement and they tend to be fairly honest if they are open to someone else or this is who they are voting for regardless of what you tell them. then they tend to follow up with how do you want to test your candidat candidates' bio, other things that are in that sphere. then you have your demographics, which are asking people's age, race, education, income times, if they have kids, depending on what is going to be a big thing. you ask if they have kids in public schools. then being able to break out the data in the different groups. all make sense in ok. there are two things that you get as a campa

mark penn in new york, served as a pollster and campaign strategist for hillary clinton, pollster andill clinton and ceo of burson-marsteller. ben stein, columnist for "fortune" magazine in washington. new york, stephanie miller, host of her own radio show, her website, stephaniemiller.com. and in new york, s.e. cupp. columnist for the "new york daily news" and senior writer for the "daily caller" website. first, the big news of the day, the supreme court. 5-4 vote rules corporations can contribute anything and take credit for the contributions and political campaigns pretty much handing a major defeat to the mccain law. what do you make of that ruling, mark? >> this takes us into uncharted territory. the whole goal of campaign finance was to reduce the influence of money in politics and, in fact, the whole thing has boomeranged with this supreme court decision. the law has now resulted in a decision that has overturned precedent, and this is historically unprecedented that corporations now can take out political ads. >> larry: ben, what do you make of it? >> well, the story is really

here's what the pollsters should do for you. they should work with you to develop a research design. in other words, here's who are doing -- here's where we're doing to sample, here's the sample size we're going to use, and then you work on the questionnaire. you know, typically what i like to do is we'll read a lot of background information on an issue. then do a conference call with the client. having taken on multiple people on suggesting things that we ought to test and do a first draft. get that to the client. the client then, you know, edits that, makes some comments, maybe we do another conference call to follow up. i like here's what's messing. we need to add this part. these things in here. we need to word this differently. sometimes, you know, there's back and forth arguments. argument is not quite the right word. but more of a we need to word it this way. i'll either say yes, that makes sense. i understand that better now. i didn't understand it when i designed the question. or no, that's biasing it too much. you have

republican pollster kellyanne conway is the guest speaker. this is live coverage on c-span2. >> good afternoon and thank you all for venturing out on such a cold january day here in washington, d.c.. although it's a lot colder other places around the country. and around the world. welcome to all of you here in the nation's capital here at the heritage foundation with us, and to all of those watching on c-span. all around the country and the world. this is the january conservative women's network, and i'm michelle easton, president. special thank you to heritage foundation, brigitte wagner who is such a wonderful partner with those. every month we bring you the great women leaders to hear from here at the heritage foundation. today we are delighted to have kellyanne conway to help us kick off 2010. as ceo and president of the polling company, kellyanne has provided primary research and advice for clients in 46 states, and she's directed hundreds of survey projects for statewide and congressional political races, trade associations, and fortune

then political conversations with a pollster on the 2010 midterm elections and an author on her book.hance to see q&a with auburn -- o author michael scammell. >> the senate returns on january 28 and will speak of an increase in debt. off the floor, house and senate democratic leaders are discussing the health care bill and the senate passed its bill on christmas eve, but it does not include the public option which is in the house bill. they have to agree on the same version before sending it to the president. the aim is to get a final bill to the president's desk before the state of the union address sometime in early february. >> i am always concerned about the potential, and for seeing consequences of new regulations. new regulations act as a tax. when you regulate something you tend to diminish it. >> robert mcdowell on

as a pollster points out, the chance of an american airline passenger being killed by a terrorist attack is 1 in 25 million. are we focusing in the wrong place? >> this may be what they're trying to do. we are clearly squandering an enormous amount of resources. the airports are security theater. i don't know anyone who has considerable confidence in the. one of the head lines from all this, government is inefficient. no kidding. >> al qaeda has gained a lot of standing by showing how much disarray there is in our national security system. our intelligence system. >> let's go back to the politics of this week as well. two key senate retirements this week. chris dodd of connecticut and byron dorgan, north dakota. >> i'm very aware of my present political standing here at home in connecticut. it's equally clear that a prediction a year from now would be absurd. >> i wanted to do some other things in life outside of public service. i made that decision, i feel good about it. it's no reflection on my pty, on our government. >> al? to his colleagues, byron dorgan was a surprise there. chris d

caller: a great -- a great question, answered in some ways by the republican pollster in this campaignbob mcdonnell, va., talking about what it means to the gop -- in a way they are optimistic, but they also guard against irrational exuberance. what we saw just last week was that three-quarters of americans have little to no confidence in the republicans in congress to make the right decisions before the country's future. that is a problem in terms of the issues for the republican plan. many of those elements are still there. dissatisfaction has now turned towards the democrats as well, but the republicans need to be wary, as the pollsters are saying, about this force and how it can be used to their advantage. host: jon cohen, thank you very much. we will be talking with byron york and christopher hayes in about 20 minutes. as we mentioned in the piece about -- the piece from "the washington post," "the party has been reinvigorated and democratic you risk has been restated. the senate seat, the majority house seat, of and the legislative chambers, democrats thought that people voted fo

. >> now republican pollster kellyanne conway gives her thoughts on the 2010 mid-term elections, the obama technicaltion, and difficulties, we join this five minutes into our comments. from the heritage foundation, this is just under an hour. >> let's talk about 2010. hot issues, what we see happening. first a little bit of perspective. 2008 politically was really all about individuals. the main narrative and discussion points were all about individuals. hillary clinton, perhaps the first female, barack obama perhaps the first african-american president, ultimately was elected. sarah palin, big surprise pick in august of 2008. but much of the polling questions, much of the media coverage, much of the discussion around as the proverbial water cooler was about the individuals who were running for president. 2009 was a shift away from individuals and back on to issues. and we saw this when you look at the tea party goers and what they were talking about at these tea parties. fiscal accountability, the exploiting deficits. bailing out wall street, bailing out detroit. bailing out your ne

so you have the pollster's list, who do you trust on this issue, republicans or democrats on 13 separate issues, the public opinion is shifting to the republican side on all 13, some of them quite significantly. more people call themselves conservative than have before. more people think global warming isn't real than before. more people are more pro-life than before. gun control, more hostility. so the whole shift to the right in the country has happened over the past year. sort of a recoil. and i suspect and it's just a theory, that it is because people are traditionally suspicious of washington, and they see a lot of power concentrated in washington and they are recoiling so that should be of concern. >> lehrer: that is a big picture, mark, do you see -- >> it is, it is an enormous picture, yeah. david -- >> i can get bigger. >> i was going to say. i was going talk about chris dodd and byron dorgan, two senators. >> lehrer: what did i ask? >> let's talk about those two guys. >> okay. i know them both and i like them both. and mi going to miss them both. and they are both been good pub

host: this is from outside philadelphia with the pollster peter hart. >> write one other thing on your of paper. when you think of the congress is there a face that comes your mind? [laughter] if you think of the philadelphia phillies or the eagles or whatever, who sort of is theview of the person you think of it? is there anyone face that comes to mind? just write it down. if you do not have anyone, that is also falling. what have you got, bill? >> that is hard. my first instinct is to push satan, but -- [laughter] >> two people wrote down "satan." >> yes. >> i was not sure of the spelling of beelzebub. >> that is that the natiofascin. i would not have guess satan, but that is why we do a. >> there was not the face perce. i wrote stodgy old white dude. >> great. ok. good, who else? >> nancy pelosi and harry reid. >> she is right. -- guest: she is right. i have been in congress and there are a lot of staunchy old white dudes. a set of words sethow people feel about reelecting congress and how much the want to reelect their own incumbent. this december the numbers today are worse than o

i started off as a pollster, and i've built bunches of voter files.t's really, really boring until you start to use it. and then you tuesday and realize the data is actually very die natural and i can helps new huge ways so. when you think about direct voter contact, you got to think about two things. part of what it's going to be, turning out voters you know support you. the second part is going to be persuasion, going voters who you aren't sure about, delivering messages either over the telephone or in the mailbox that is more specifically targeted to what they're worried about. turning out to voters. you do things they you would never do on you see mail pieces that are like, oh, my god. no one would ever do that. in the first campaign i ever ran was in culpeper, virginia. do any of you know where that is? somebody's nodding. as my family referred to, it the pepah. that is? my very nerdy family asked how you ended up in the south. halfway between d.c. and charleston, a strong community, a small town. people ask me where are you people from? detroit.

madam speaker, i'd say to the gentleman, there's very little disagreement among the pollsters that have tested where the american people are on these health care bills. they are opposed to these health care bills. and you may insinuate that some of the comments that have been made by individuals in this body or the other on our side of the aisle were meant to obstruct, but i can tell you, madam -- i can tell the gentleman, madam speaker, that the american people right now want this health care bill defeated. they want health care rmpled, but not in the way -- reformed, but not in the way that's been constructed under either one of these bills. and if i recall, and i appreciate the gentleman's willingness to meet with me several months ago, and i don't want to take his comments as being dismissive about a proposal because i handed him a summary, but i can tell the gentleman right here is the house republican bill. and there are elements in this bill we can both agree upon. the plan is still before us. and if we take into consideration that, we've got a plan. the public doesn't like the g

hart research, well-known pollster, well-regarded pollster, taken november 16 to november 18 of 2009. there's no doubt in my mind if this poll were taken today, these numbers would be even strongerhe need for a bipartisan fiscal commission. mr. president, let me just close in the time remaining to me to thank my colleague, senate gregg, the ranking republican on the committee. we have a group of cosponsors of this bill, equal in number, equally divided between republicans and democrats. mr. president, senator gregg and i have not always agreed on every fiscal issue. and we have debated those issues sometimes in a way that's animated and full of energy. but there is one place that we are in absolute agreement. i served here now 23 years. i am absolutely persuaded that if we do not adopt a special procedure like the one we have proposed, the chances of facing up to this debt threat in a timely way is remote. is remote. this is our chance. tomorrow will be a defining vote. are we going to take on this question of the looming debt, the threat it poses to the economic security of the count

after the massachusetts election, i can imagine them getting the pollsters on the line. i am disappointed that the immediate knee-jerk reaction was to engage in scapegoating. here's my question ques, if they place a tax on your bank, how is that going to create a job? do you think your bank is going to extend you a new line of credit? quite the opposite. like any other tax, it will be shoved into the cost of credit. the president said that this was a "responsibility fee" but there is a lot of responsibility to go around. the president wants to tax banks who did not take t.a.r.p. money. it is not going to create any jobs. if you really want to assess responsibility, how about those members of congress, including the president, who protected fannie and freddie, who, before it is all said and done, will need for a big bailout. christmas eve, they announced they were lifting the cap of tax exposure to fannie and freddie while at the same time giving them multimillion-dollar bonus packages. what people do with their money is their business. what they do with the taxpayer mone

. >> when testing these ads -- [inaudible] >> the pollsters usually do that.t is part of their game, to actually do the testing and do the analysis of the results. we are all watching it. if it is focus groups we are watching through the 1-way glass or looking at the results online if it is online testing. that is part of their domain. somebody else raising their hand? >> what would you say is tougher? creating ads as a rebuttal to another ad or creating an opening advertisement to set the dialogue? >> that is a good question. i think they are different. they are equally challenging an equally interesting. trying to figure out the positive argument for a candidate and what is going to work creatively as well as substantive, that is the puzzle of any campaign and you have a lot more time to think about that oftentimes -- it is and attack you didn't anticipate which happens often, trying to figure out a response very quickly, have a research team -- is what they are talking about even true? this is a very different skill set. one is crisis response and the other

caller: well, the american people are smarter than the pundits and pollsters give them credit for. do not think that there will be a backlash of this health care reform. i do not thidkbq!q there will be a backlash of the president's standing up to the pirates in defending this country, doing what he is supposed to do. i do not think that when he gets down to dealing with what is best for america, i do not think that the parties and racism, conservatism and all of these things, i do not think that they willÑi have anything. obama is looking at what is best for the country. health care, protecting our borders, doing the things that america expects a president to do. host: let's leave it there. these officials said that there are no plans to appoint an official house senate committee in conference. under the customary format, "a committee chairman is appointed with senior lawmakers from both parties in houses, participating in a perfunctory public meetings while meaningful negotiations occur behind closed doors. in this case the plan is to skip close meat -- the plan is to skip the p

various ads run by various groups didn't use its language or focus on the parts of the debate that pollstersion research has pointed to. but now the environmental community has what's called the clean energy works campaign, which is sort of an umbrella campaign, where everybody is singing natalie from the -- singing not only from the same song book, but the same hymn, they're on the same line and they're singing the same notes and that's really essential. if you go on the industry side, they're all over the map, because the big oil is going to focus enema's lien prices, where -- on gasoline prices, whereas the coal industry is going to focus on jobs. those messages are different. that's one of the challenges of a business coalition is their bottom lines in the advertising campaign is their bottom lines in their business. and so that's makes it harder sometimes for them. now, obviously, one of the iron rules of congress is, it's always easier to stop things than it is to get things done. so coordination isn't as important if you're just trying to stop things, because then you're just throwing

over on c-span 2, republican pollster kelly ann conway looks ahead to the 2010 elections.nd later secretary of state clinton will commemorate the 15th anniversary of the international conference on population and development looking at education, reductions in infant child and maternity mortality and universal access to reproductive health. we'll have our speech at 2:50 eastern on c-span2. >> i'm always concerned about the potential, unforeseen consequences, unintended consequences in new regulations, new regulations of any kind acts as a tax. when you tax or regulate something you tend to get less of it. you tend to din minish it. >> in weekend on "the communicators," robert mcdowell, net neutrality and the wireless industry, 6:30 p.m. eastern saturday on c-span. >> "washington journal" continues. host: marilyn geewax, senior business editor for national public radio. ms. geewax, what is the economy in? guest: we've had job losses of two years. since december of 2007 we've been losing jobs and people are -- you can measure a recession all sorts of ways but for all america

applause] >> starting in about an hour a discussion on the 2010 midterm elections with republican pollster, kellyanne conway. we'll hear how health care my effect the outcome of those elections. live coverage from the heritage foundation begins noon eastern on c-span2. >>> this afternoon, remarks from secretary of state hillary clinton commemorating the 15th anniversary on international conference on population and development. held in 1994. 179 nations reached an agreement on reaching reductions in infant and child death and access to reproductive health. the secretary will begin comments at the state department. it will begin life at 2:40 eastern on c-span2. >>> and now, former oklahoma congressman mickey edwards on the relationship between the president and congress. he currently serves as vice president of the aspen institute and he spoke earlier this w at washington senator for internships and academic seminars. this is about an hour. >> delivered but not announced. i want to take special care in introducing our next speaker. and preface my introduction by saying that there are many p

>> caller: well, the american people are smarter than the pollsters give them credit for. i don't think there's going to be any backlash against health care reform. i don't think there's going to be a backlash against a president standing up to the pirates. standing up and defending this country. doing what he's supposed to do. i think he is strong, intelligent president. and i don't think, when it gets down to dealing with what's best, what's best for america, i don't think racism, conservatism, all these things, that were born in the south, i don't think they are going to have a bearing that i think obama is going to be looked at for what best for the country, reforming health care, protecting our borders. and doing the things that america expects the president to do a. >> host: let's leave it there. more from the article in the baltimore sun. these officials said there are no plans to appoint a formal house senate conference committee. under the customary format, a committee chairman is appointed to preside and other senate senior lawmakers from both parties and houses

and madam speaker, i would say to the gentleman, there's very little disagreement among the pollsters that have tested where the american people are on these health care bills. they are opposed to these health care bills. and you may say that some of the comments that have been made by individuals in this body or the other on our side of the aisle were meant to obstruct, but i can tell the gentleman, madam speaker, that the american people right now want this will health care bill defeated. they want health care reform, but not in the way that has been constructed under either one of these bills. and if i recall, and i appreciate the gentleman's willingness to meet with me several months ago -- and i don't want to take his comments as being dismissive of our proposal because i handed him a summary, but i can tell the gentleman right here is the house republican bill. and there are elements in this bill we can both agree upon. the plan is still before us. and if we take into consideration that, we've got a plan. the public doesn't like the gentleman's plan. and flash forward to a discu

madam speaker, i'd say to the gentleman, there's very little disagreement among the pollsters that have tested where the american people are on these health care bills. they are opposed to these health care bills. and you may insinuate that some of the comments that have been made by individuals in this body or the other on our side of the aisle were meant to obstruct, but i can tell you, madam -- i can tell the gentleman, madam speaker, that the american people right now want this health care bill defeated. they want health care rmpled, but not in the way -- reformed, but not in the way that's been constructed under either one of these bills. and if i recall, and i appreciate the gentleman's willingness to meet with me several months ago, and i don't want to take his comments as being dismissive about a proposal because i handed him a summary, but i can tell the gentleman right here is the house republican bill. and there are elements in this bill we can both agree upon. the plan is still before us. and if we take into consideration that, we've got a plan. the public doesn't like the g

various ads run by various groups didn't use its language or focus on the parts of the debate that pollsters and opinion research has pointed to. but now the environmental community has what's called the clean energy works campaign, which is sort of an umbrella campaign, where everybody is singing natalie from the -- singing not only from the same song book, but the same hymn, they're on the same line and they're singing the same notes and that's really essential. if you go on the industry side, they're all over the map, because the big oil is going to focus enema's lien prices, where -- on gasoline prices, whereas the coal industry is going to focus on jobs. those messages are different. that's one of the challenges of a business coalition is their bottom lines in the advertising campaign is their bottom lines in their business. and so that's makes it harder sometimes for them. now, obviously, one of the iron rules of congress is, it's always easier to stop things than it is to get things done. so coordination isn't as important if you're just trying to stop things, because then you're just

last april the pollster scott rasmussen found only 53% of the americans agreed with the proposition thatapitalism was better than socialism. but that moment passed. has been replaced by a wave of populist discontent directed as much as government than the market. defenders of free enterprise should not take too much heart from this turn in public opinion though. it suggests people are uneasy with the instability of the day but it is not formed it self into argument in defense of american capitalism or even coherent case against emerging intentions of the democratic majority in washington. to direct the public towards such a case we will need to explain what is at risk and what is at stake and why it matters. such an explanation is no simple matter. after decades of defending one tree or another, many friends of capitalism lost sight of the forest. what democratic capitalism is. its virtues and vices its strengths and weaknesses its political and moral and as well as economic justifications. our first task now is recovery that understanding which will clarify both our objections to the po