the lower potential g.d.p., you can see back in 2010, we were rojecting the gross domestic product, enough jobs for people who wanted to work and you can littler by year taking a bit off that expectation and have had this deproth falling well short. there is a possibility it will turn around, but national investment in the work work force and go up much faster but we have not seen that as yet but we have accepting some of the drops. >> as already mentioned a couple of times, mortality experience has been a lot worse than we expected. the black line here is the actual death rates. you can see since about 2009, there have been fairly level. and we expect mortality to improve. it really hasn't been since 2009. another thing to point out, this is all ages, we look at specific age groups, but this is a summary. the colored lines, you can see in each trustees' report, we expect mortality to improve. it just hasn't happened in recent years. and i talked to my folks in the office and they have preliminary data for 2017 and looks like the plaque line is going to go up a little bit next year. still

administration goes after cars that potentially could also have a very significant impact on german g.d.p you how you start the morning. knees are shaking and you're at jp morgan and briefing yourself on brazilian football with gabriela, you can't do better than gtv.go and take a chart and bring that puppy up and send it over to your terminal. that's pretty cool. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: this is fun. francine in london and i in new york. mr. hammond speaking in london. speaking here, gabriela santos speaking and let's go to a chart now. it's a canada chart. i showed this many times before, thanks to the comments from canada of the two trudeaus, this is mr. trudeau sr., for those of you a younger ilk, there was a trudeau, not as good-looking, years ago, this is the long-term baby he can -- long term weakening of canada. you mentioned commodities in the centrality to our analysis and here's what we've been churning with younger trudeau as well. i would suggest given the buffeting of oil, he's done a pretty good job of stabilizing canada given that price shock. steven: given the negotiation

g.d.p. estimate. they were talking 3% growth. the estimate could potentially be 4.7? ed: 4.7.80,000. 223,000 jobs added. unemployment 3.8%. that shows that people are out looking for jobs. the companies are hiring. that is something to celebrate. that is where you want to be in the country. ed: i'm glad pete is finally admitting the obama recovery set things up really well. pete: ed, where did you go talking points. labor participation rate is so huge, too. you are right. the unemployment rate can be deceptive. people are leaving the. ed: "new york times" in the obama years pretty low. the labor participation rate was ridiculous. historic lows. people were not looking for work. they were sort of giving up. and now there is optimism so people are not only getting jobs others that don't have them are getting off the couch and say i want to find something. i'm optimistic. there is excitement. abby: this is why a lot of people go to the polls to vote. i would say the most important issue for most people is the economy and how they feel they're personally doings. how much they can

g.d.p. growth? does that begin to feed into productivity? can economic output actually bring up productivity? neil: well, i think so. i think that there's some potentialre at unemployment long enough, over time that forces companies to find different ways of seeking out efficiencies with their existing workforce. but, you know, little known fact, tom, nonfarm business productivity has been growing now for eight consecutive quarters. and, you know, over that time, it's been growing slightly around 1.5%. it looks like the second quarter we're going to see pretty solid productivity growth. because g.d.p. is tracking 4%, and total hours worked over the quarter up about two. if you're growing 1.5% to 2% for productivity on a sustained basis, then the yield curve is not only too flat, but estimates of neutral interest rates and longer run terminal rates are too low. francine: neil, what happens to dollar? neil: i mean, i think what's driving the dollar right now,y had some slippage of momentum in europe. and that was a big reason why the dollar was so soft last year. but also, i mean, the u.s. economic data, i mean, if you look at your own bloomberg economi

potential $12 trillion -- $12 trillion -- of financial value, and i quote them here, could vanish off their balance sheets globally in the form of stranded assets. the report notes that that is over 15% of global g.d.p. this economic report posits a market scenario in which lower-cost producers unload their fossil fuel reserves while they still can into this collapsing market, selling out their assets in the language of the report. unloading their fossil fuel assets even at fire sale prices to get what valuehey can while in tsnalysis, the report says, and i'll quote them here, regions with higher marginal costs lose almost their entire oil and gas industry. for example, the united states. end quote. so in this environment in which there is a rapid crash in fossil fuel prices, as sellers saturate the market at whatever low price they can get to get some money for their reserves before they evaporate and get wiped off their balance sheets, the market moves rapidly, and regions like ours, like the united states, he almost their entire oil and gas industry. obviously for the united states to rapidly lose almost its entire oil and gas industry would create a dramatic economic shock spilling over into oth